PBS NewsHour - 2008-10-01

Channel: malgent

Transcript

Language: English (YouTube automatic captions)

[0:00] care center.

[0:05] >> [music]

[0:10] >> Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the

[0:12] NewsHour tonight, the news of this

[0:14] Wednesday, then the latest on the

[0:16] financial crisis as the Senate nears a

[0:18] vote on a modified rescue plan. [music]

[0:21] A snapshot of the presidential campaign

[0:23] from Amy Walter and Susan Page. A Judy

[0:27] Woodruff report on former Hillary

[0:28] Clinton supporters in the battleground

[0:30] state of Florida. And a book

[0:33] conversation with New York Times

[0:34] reporter Dexter Filkins about covering

[0:37] the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

[0:41] >> Major funding for the NewsHour with Jim

[0:43] Lehrer is provided by

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[0:49] and how we use energy today

[0:52] cannot be how we use it tomorrow.

[0:54] There is no one solution.

[0:57] It's not simply more oil, more

[0:59] renewables, or being more efficient.

[1:02] It's all of it.

[1:02] >> [music]

[1:03] >> Our way of life depends on developing

[1:05] all forms of energy

[1:07] and to use less of it.

[1:10] It's time to put our differences aside.

[1:12] Will you be part of the solution?

[1:14] Chevron, human energy.

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[1:54] Thank you.

[1:58] >> A new version of the financial rescue

[2:00] bill gained momentum today. The US

[2:03] Senate moved to approve the $700 billion

[2:06] legislation. It still called for buying

[2:08] up bad debts from banks, but it added

[2:10] more insurance for bank deposits, plus

[2:13] tax breaks. Party leaders voiced hope

[2:16] the changes would be enough.

[2:18] >> I believe every part of this bill enjoys

[2:21] bipartisan support. And every part is

[2:23] aimed directly at the heart of our

[2:25] financial crisis.

[2:27] No one is happy about taking this

[2:28] dramatic and expensive step with the

[2:31] bailout. No one is glad we have reached

[2:33] this critical point.

[2:34] >> We will have demonstrated to the

[2:36] American people that we could deal with

[2:38] a crisis

[2:40] in the most difficult of times, right

[2:41] before an election, when the tendency to

[2:44] be the

[2:45] the most partisan is the greatest.

[2:48] >> The House rejected one version of the

[2:49] bill on Monday, but Republican leaders

[2:52] said today support for the new

[2:53] compromise is building, and House

[2:56] Majority Leader Hoyer said a new vote is

[2:58] likely on Friday. We'll have more on the

[3:00] story right after the news summary.

[3:03] Wall Street labored in vain to hold its

[3:05] ground today. Stocks closed down

[3:07] slightly over concerns about the rescue

[3:09] bill and poor economic data. The Dow

[3:12] Jones Industrial Average lost 19 points

[3:15] to close at 10,831.

[3:18] The Nasdaq fell 22 points to close at

[3:20] 2069.

[3:22] Overseas markets were more upbeat. Asian

[3:25] and European stocks edged higher on

[3:27] expectations the Senate will approve the

[3:30] plan.

[3:31] New numbers today show the credit crunch

[3:33] taking its toll on the auto industry.

[3:36] Ford Motor Company reported sales fell

[3:38] 34% in September from a year ago.

[3:41] General Motors sales were down 16%.

[3:43] Sales at Honda, Toyota, and Nissan were

[3:46] off by double-digits as well.

[3:49] In the presidential campaign today,

[3:51] Republican John McCain said the revamped

[3:53] rescue bill is an improvement over the

[3:56] house version that failed. In

[3:57] Independence, Missouri, he called for

[3:59] greater bipartisan effort to make sure

[4:02] it passes.

[4:03] >> I'm confident there are enough people of

[4:06] goodwill in both parties

[4:08] to see America through this crisis.

[4:11] And when the last vote is cast,

[4:13] we can be grateful to all of them,

[4:16] Democrats and Republicans alike,

[4:19] for helping

[4:20] to solve the crisis instead of merely

[4:22] exploiting it.

[4:23] >> Democrat Barack Obama campaigned in La

[4:26] Crosse, Wisconsin. He said the Senate

[4:28] bill is not perfect, but it will stop a

[4:30] crisis from becoming a catastrophe.

[4:33] >> To the Democrats and Republicans who

[4:35] oppose this plan, I say that this: Step

[4:38] up to the plate,

[4:39] do what's right for the country, even if

[4:41] it's not popular, because the time to

[4:43] act is now. I know many Americans are

[4:46] wondering what happens next.

[4:48] Passing this bill will not be the end of

[4:50] our work to strengthen our economy. It's

[4:52] just the beginning

[4:54] of a long, hard road ahead.

[4:56] >> Also today, former President Clinton

[4:58] made his first major campaign speeches

[5:00] for Obama. He appeared at two stops in

[5:03] Florida.

[5:05] The top American commander in

[5:06] Afghanistan today renewed his urgent

[5:08] call for more US troops. General David

[5:11] McKiernan said manpower and other aid

[5:14] are needed as quickly as possible to

[5:16] fight the Taliban. He met with President

[5:19] Bush at the White House, and he said he

[5:21] needs more than 10,000 troops he already

[5:23] has asked for.

[5:25] A missile strike in Pakistan killed at

[5:27] least six people today. Pakistani

[5:29] intelligence officers said a US drone

[5:32] aircraft fired the weapon at a Taliban

[5:35] commander's home. That happened along

[5:37] the border with Afghanistan. That region

[5:40] is where Osama bin Laden is thought to

[5:42] be hiding. The attack was the first

[5:44] since Pakistan's new president warned

[5:46] against the violations of Pakistani

[5:49] territory. US officials had little to

[5:51] say about the report.

[5:54] Officials in Somalia today authorized

[5:56] the use of force against pirates holding

[5:59] a Ukrainian ship. US warships stopped

[6:02] the freighter last week after it was

[6:03] hijacked with a load of Russian weapons.

[6:06] We have a report narrated by John Sparks

[6:09] of Independent Television News.

[6:12] >> "We're not afraid." said one pirate

[6:14] speaking from the bridge of the MV Faina

[6:16] on a satellite telephone. "You only die

[6:19] once." he added.

[6:21] Five days ago this Ukrainian freighter

[6:23] was hijacked 200 mi off the African

[6:25] coast by Somalian pirates. On board they

[6:29] found 21 crew mostly from the Ukraine

[6:32] and the cargo, well, it was more than

[6:34] they bargained for.

[6:36] In the hold more than 30 million US

[6:38] dollars worth of Russian military

[6:40] hardware including 30 T-72 tanks,

[6:43] grenade launchers, anti-aircraft guns,

[6:46] and ammunition.

[6:48] The MV Faina was heading towards the

[6:50] Kenyan port of Mombasa. Yet we

[6:52] understand the military hardware was

[6:54] destined for the SPLA in Southern Sudan,

[6:57] a former rebel group now supposed to be

[6:59] working with the Sudanese government.

[7:01] The ship now moored off the coastal town

[7:03] of Hobyo surrounded by American and

[7:05] Russian warships. Crews are kidnapped

[7:08] and held to ransom. The gang holding the

[7:10] Faina's crew want 20 million dollars.

[7:13] Once in a while the pirates are caught.

[7:15] These men were detained in April, but it

[7:17] is a profitable business for Somalia's

[7:19] warlords and the risks, well, they're

[7:21] judged to be worthwhile. The pirates now

[7:24] claim they are negotiating a deal, but a

[7:27] Russian warship with special forces

[7:28] personnel is on its way. The Ukrainian

[7:31] crew are hungry and uncertain and the

[7:34] pirates are stuck on board with no

[7:36] possibility of escape.

[7:38] There was an offer today to create a

[7:40] security force to fight piracy off the

[7:42] coast of Somalia. It came from eight

[7:45] European Union nations. The French

[7:47] defense minister said formal approval

[7:50] will come next month.

[7:52] The Iraqi military took command today of

[7:54] some 100,000 Sunni fighters. The Sunnis

[7:57] had turned against Al-Qaeda and were

[7:59] paid and supervised by the US military.

[8:02] Now they'll answer to the government of

[8:04] Iraq led by Shiites. Some Sunni leaders

[8:07] have said they'll rebel again if they're

[8:10] mistreated. And that's it for the news

[8:12] summary tonight. Now another day in the

[8:14] financial crisis, a presidential

[8:16] campaign snapshot,

[8:18] Hillary supporters in Florida,

[8:21] and covering war.

[8:30] NewsHour congressional correspondent

[8:32] Kwame Holman begins our coverage of the

[8:34] second round for the financial rescue

[8:36] bill.

[8:38] >> This is a sink-or-swim moment for our

[8:40] country and we cannot merely catch our

[8:43] breath. We must swim for the shores.

[8:46] >> I believe the leaders pleaded for a

[8:47] passage of the latest version of the

[8:49] financial rescue plan this afternoon

[8:51] ahead of tonight's vote that brought in

[8:53] Senators Biden, McCain, and Obama from

[8:56] the campaign trail.

[8:57] Tonight's expected Senate approval

[8:59] follows the bailout bill's stunning

[9:01] defeat in the House on Monday. That led

[9:04] to slight revisions to the package and

[9:06] the decision to have the Senate vote

[9:08] first. Republican leader Mitch McConnell

[9:11] I'm optimistic that we're going to have

[9:13] a a significant bipartisan

[9:16] uh victory on the rescue plan here in

[9:18] the Senate tonight.

[9:20] I think it's important to remember this

[9:21] is about Main Street

[9:24] and not Wall Street. It's about

[9:26] unlocking

[9:28] uh the frozen uh credit markets and

[9:30] getting America's economy

[9:33] uh moving again. Majority Leader Harry

[9:35] Reid

[9:36] >> I would not have moved forward on this

[9:40] if I didn't think the chance in the

[9:42] house was good. Now, I don't I don't run

[9:45] the house. I have nothing to do with the

[9:47] house other than answer questions from

[9:49] the leadership. That's a decision that

[9:51] the Democratic and Republican leaders

[9:53] over there will have to make a decision.

[9:54] But, this is good legislation.

[9:56] Um

[9:57] and I I hope that no one thinks I'm

[10:00] trying to jam anyone. This is an effort

[10:02] to

[10:03] solve what I think is the greatest

[10:05] financial crisis we've had since the

[10:06] Great Depression.

[10:07] >> The modified bill still centers on

[10:10] authorizing the Treasury Department to

[10:12] use up to $700 billion to buy up bad

[10:15] mortgage-backed securities. In addition,

[10:18] it would increase federal insurance on

[10:20] bank deposits from $100,000 to a quarter

[10:24] million.

[10:25] The guaranteeing agency, the Federal

[10:27] Deposit Insurance Corporation, also

[10:29] would be allowed temporarily to borrow

[10:31] unlimited funds from the US Treasury.

[10:34] >> That's what this raising FDIC is all

[10:36] about. So, small community banks

[10:39] don't have to be afraid of people taking

[10:41] their deposits out and taking it to the

[10:43] big city.

[10:44] >> Unlike the original bill, the Senate

[10:46] version has other provisions unrelated

[10:49] to the financial crisis. It would

[10:50] prevent 20 million Americans from being

[10:53] hit by the alternative minimum tax next

[10:56] year

[10:57] and extend a series of energy and other

[10:59] tax breaks for businesses.

[11:01] >> If I were to move to reconsider

[11:03] >> Since Monday's failed vote in the house,

[11:05] lawmakers have gotten feedback about the

[11:07] urgency to pass something that will

[11:09] unlock frozen credit markets. Tennessee

[11:12] Republican Lamar Alexander.

[11:14] >> Nashville Tennessean reports today that

[11:15] the largest General Motors car dealer

[11:17] just south of Nashville

[11:19] turned down

[11:20] a third of the people who came in to buy

[11:22] a car for their auto loan.

[11:24] The New York Times reports today that

[11:25] across the country the number is about

[11:27] 63% when normally uh the number 63% of

[11:32] people who can get the loan when

[11:33] normally it's 83%.

[11:35] What is happening is not directed at the

[11:38] stock market, it's directed at the

[11:40] credit market. What we have is is most

[11:43] of us have said a big wreck in the

[11:45] middle of the economic highway.

[11:48] And it's clogging up our payroll check,

[11:50] our auto loan check, our money for our

[11:53] mortgage loan or for a farm credit loan,

[11:56] and it can't get through the wreck and

[11:57] the traffic, the economic traffic can't

[11:59] be moving.

[12:00] >> When the house takes up the revised bill

[12:02] tomorrow or Friday, it will need 12 more

[12:05] votes than the first bill got.

[12:07] One of them will not come from Democrat

[12:10] Peter DeFazio of Oregon, who says

[12:12] revising the plan doesn't fix its core

[12:14] problem, allowing Treasury Secretary

[12:16] Paulson to purchase a range of

[12:18] questionable assets.

[12:20] >> The original Paulson program has bells

[12:21] and whistles. He can buy any sort of

[12:23] asset he determines. That could be

[12:25] credit card debt, uh it could be auto

[12:27] loans, he says he wants to do that. It

[12:29] could be personal debt, might be pawn

[12:31] shop certificates, maybe uh office

[12:33] buildings, anything he wants at any

[12:35] price he wants, under any conditions he

[12:37] wants, but he'll have to tell us after

[12:39] he's done it. Uh this is unbelievable

[12:42] power to give to this guy. He will be

[12:43] God on Wall Street.

[12:45] >> Connecticut Republican Christopher Shays

[12:47] admits not all of the bill's critics

[12:49] have been satisfied, but says members

[12:51] must vote yes this time as he did on

[12:53] Monday.

[12:54] >> We haven't done a good job of

[12:56] articulating. The challenge we have is

[12:59] if we vote for this bill, things may not

[13:02] go really well, they may continue to

[13:04] decline a bit, but had we not voted for

[13:07] it, we might have had a disaster that

[13:09] they will never have known about. I

[13:11] think this bill will pass the Senate, I

[13:12] think it will pass the House, and I

[13:14] think it will pass because uh we're

[13:16] having some people act like grownups and

[13:19] not panic and realize that we don't have

[13:22] to throw everything out and start fresh.

[13:24] >> Both presidential candidates were

[13:26] expected to cast Senate votes tonight on

[13:28] the rescue bill, beginning the process

[13:30] leaders promise will end this time in

[13:33] certain congressional approval.

[13:36] >> Margaret Warner has more.

[13:38] >> For a closer look at where things stand

[13:40] tonight on the rescue plan and the

[13:42] financial impact of this crisis here and

[13:44] abroad, we get four views. Susan

[13:47] Ferreccio is chief congressional

[13:49] correspondent for the Washington

[13:50] Examiner and San Francisco Examiner.

[13:53] Norman Ornstein is an observer of

[13:55] Congress and resident scholar at the

[13:56] American Enterprise Institute. He joins

[13:59] us from New York this evening. David

[14:01] Leonhardt is an economic columnist for

[14:03] the New York Times and Simon Johnson was

[14:06] chief economist at the International

[14:07] Monetary Fund until this past August.

[14:10] He's now a professor at the MIT Sloan

[14:12] School of Management and a senior fellow

[14:14] at the Peterson Institute for

[14:16] International Economics. And welcome to

[14:18] you all. Susan, beginning with you, are

[14:20] Senate leaders this confident and if so,

[14:22] what is it based on about the vote

[14:24] tonight?

[14:25] >> Well, the Senate initially was was more

[14:27] accepting of this bill than the House.

[14:29] Uh and now that they've added some

[14:31] incentives to it, I think they feel the

[14:33] passage is pretty much assured by a

[14:35] healthy margin in the Senate and then

[14:37] they're hoping that that will boost

[14:39] confidence in House members to also vote

[14:41] for the bill, but they don't really know

[14:42] you know exactly what will happen in the

[14:44] House though.

[14:44] >> But what are the what are the vote

[14:46] getters for them in in the things that

[14:48] they added to the bill?

[14:50] >> Well, they've got the attractive

[14:51] alternative minimum tax suspension in

[14:53] there that will prevent 20 million

[14:55] taxpayers from being caught up in the

[14:57] AMT. That's something that they passed

[14:59] last week in the

[15:00] >> minimum tax.

[15:01] >> Correct. And they really want that to

[15:02] pass. They've also got some tax breaks

[15:04] for folks who are using alternative

[15:06] energy uh initiatives for companies and

[15:09] private citizens. That's very attractive

[15:11] to to to the Senate as well. And the F-

[15:13] the changes to the FDIC in terms of how

[15:16] much it can insure and then the FDIC can

[15:18] go out and borrow more, is that right?

[15:20] >> Right. That's critical.

[15:21] >> They'll be able to cover that interest.

[15:22] >> This will protect uh banks from just

[15:25] falling apart from jittery account

[15:27] holders making a run and withdrawing all

[15:29] their money. Many, many senators were

[15:31] and house members were demanding this.

[15:32] So, this is definitely a critical point.

[15:34] Give them an extra

[15:36] $250,000

[15:37] on instead of the $100,000 and that will

[15:40] certainly help, particularly small banks

[15:42] that would not be able to sustain that

[15:44] kind of craziness with people coming to

[15:46] take their money out out of fear that

[15:48] the bank will collapse.

[15:50] >> Mr. Ornstein, what explains the

[15:52] difference

[15:54] in the reception that this bill, this

[15:57] concept, this Paulson concept, which has

[15:59] remained pretty much intact

[16:01] has received in the house versus the

[16:04] Senate?

[16:05] >> Well, Margaret, I I wouldn't be one to

[16:07] say that the Senate lacks its

[16:08] dysfunction, but in this issue it has

[16:10] been more disfunctional more functional.

[16:13] You know, first we have a different

[16:14] interpersonal relationship among

[16:15] senators. The leaders actually have a

[16:18] better opportunity to be leaders.

[16:21] They've had substantive leaders,

[16:23] including conservatives like Judd Gregg

[16:26] of New Hampshire and Bob Bennett of

[16:27] Utah, who've decided to work with their

[16:30] Democratic counterparts and have pretty

[16:32] good relationships with them. Keep in

[16:34] mind that 2/3 of the Senate are not up

[16:36] for election this time. So, they don't

[16:37] have those immediate electoral

[16:39] pressures. In the house, almost all of

[16:41] the members in tight districts where

[16:43] they face challenges ended up voting

[16:45] against this particular package.

[16:47] So, that's certainly another element of

[16:49] it. And then one final thing, the Senate

[16:51] has a center. You know, if we look at

[16:54] people like Gregg or Bennett, they're

[16:57] conservative in their voting records,

[16:58] but they're basically center-right. The

[17:00] House of Representatives has pretty much

[17:02] lost that center and this was a

[17:04] coalition of people strongly on the

[17:07] right with people strongly on the left

[17:09] who brought it down in the house. That's

[17:11] just not quite as big a problem in the

[17:13] Senate.

[17:14] >> Now, Chris Dodd, the chairman of the

[17:15] Banking Committee, had promised at the

[17:17] beginning this would not be a Christmas

[17:18] tree, but in fact the Senate version has

[17:21] a lot of ornaments.

[17:23] How much are those a factor in the

[17:26] Senate's apparent interest in this bill

[17:30] versus say they were put there to help

[17:31] it in the house?

[17:33] >> Look, the Senate was going to pass this

[17:35] I think by a reasonably healthy margin,

[17:38] not unanimously, but probably a majority

[17:41] of both parties even without these

[17:43] sweeteners. But now they've really

[17:45] gotten to a

[17:47] rather

[17:48] ridiculous point. We have over a hundred

[17:51] billion dollars. This is for one year in

[17:53] additional expenditures

[17:56] or tax breaks from the alternative

[17:59] minimum tax through aid to schools in

[18:01] rural areas to

[18:04] mental health parity now which has been

[18:06] added onto this bill along with the

[18:08] energy tax breaks as well and none of it

[18:11] is paid for.

[18:13] And this is going to create a problem in

[18:14] the house now.

[18:16] It will get more votes in the Senate,

[18:17] but half the Blue Dog Democrats who are

[18:20] fiscal hawks, who are the centrists,

[18:22] voted for this package the first time

[18:24] around. They believe strongly in pay as

[18:26] you go budgeting and this is a very big

[18:29] and bitter pill for them to swallow.

[18:31] >> David Leonhardt today on the Senate

[18:32] floor when members senators stood up to

[18:35] speak they did talk about the stock

[18:37] market decline 777 points on Monday, but

[18:40] they really talked about how the

[18:41] tightening credit is affecting their

[18:43] constituents both individuals and

[18:45] companies.

[18:46] You wrote today that you think that's

[18:47] where the focus really belongs, not on

[18:50] the stock market.

[18:51] >> That's right and it's hard to keep the

[18:53] focus there because we all know where we

[18:54] can look up the value of the S&P 500 or

[18:57] the value of the Dow. It's much harder

[18:59] to look up these credit indicators.

[19:01] They're out there, but they're harder to

[19:02] look up and I think that combined with

[19:04] the fact that most people and most

[19:06] businesses don't go out and try to get a

[19:08] major loan every week has made this seem

[19:11] a little ephemeral and it's hard for

[19:14] people to grasp because they haven't yet

[19:16] come in contact with it themselves and

[19:18] because they don't see the bright red

[19:19] flashing lights of the credit markets

[19:21] that they would if this were about the

[19:23] stock market.

[19:24] >> Now your column today was most

[19:25] interesting. You you tried to connect

[19:27] the dots about how a credit crisis

[19:29] unfolds. How something like slightly

[19:31] tighter credit that we've seen the last

[19:33] few months really can lead to a

[19:36] depression. Give us a truncated version

[19:38] of that. Connect those dots.

[19:40] >> Absolutely. And let me start just by

[19:41] saying most people think the odds of a

[19:43] depression that that look like what we

[19:45] had in the 30s are are very very small.

[19:47] But the odds of something bad have

[19:49] gotten a lot bigger and

[19:51] it in many ways comes down to trust and

[19:53] banks rely enormously on short-term

[19:55] loans to each other. And what you've

[19:58] seen happen first about 13 months ago

[20:00] and when really dramatically in the last

[20:02] few weeks is the interest rates on those

[20:04] short-term loans between banks have

[20:06] really gone up. And so the cost for

[20:08] banks of getting money has gone up a

[20:10] lot. And that has ripple effects. That

[20:12] ripples all the way out in the

[20:13] mortgages, it ripples out into business

[20:15] loans.

[20:15] >> to pass the song to them.

[20:16] >> They have to pass the song. That's

[20:17] precisely right. And and as a result

[20:20] what what you see is that you see first

[20:22] of all in the financial sector you see

[20:24] it much more difficult for banks to get

[20:25] money. And when it's more difficult for

[20:27] them to get money they worry that they

[20:28] won't be able to get it in the future

[20:30] and that in turn makes them less willing

[20:32] to lend to other banks. And you really

[20:34] get a sort of contagion. And and once

[20:37] once you have a credit credit markets

[20:39] that aren't functioning you really can't

[20:40] have an economy that's functioning for

[20:42] very long.

[20:42] >> Okay, but then connect that dot to why

[20:45] only 63% of people who go in for auto

[20:48] loans now are getting it. In other

[20:49] words, does it also mean it's harder for

[20:51] the individual?

[20:52] >> It will eventually, certainly. I mean if

[20:53] we don't get the credit markets unlocked

[20:55] there's no question that people will

[20:56] find in some cases they can't get loans

[20:58] like the like the auto the would-be auto

[21:01] borrowers you're talking about. And in

[21:03] some cases they're just going to pay a a

[21:05] and so that's going to change the

[21:06] calculations for individuals and

[21:08] businesses about when they're willing to

[21:09] buy things and invest in things.

[21:11] >> Now, Simon Johnson, meanwhile this week

[21:13] we've been reading a lot about what's

[21:16] going on in Europe.

[21:17] Several major financial institutions

[21:20] either taken over or given major

[21:21] infusions of capital and help from

[21:23] various European governments. How

[21:25] serious is the problem there?

[21:27] >> It's a very serious problem. It is a

[21:28] global problem now. All the things Dave

[21:30] was talking about are coming

[21:32] becoming apparent in Europe but much

[21:34] faster than the United States. The

[21:34] United States at least we've had a few

[21:36] weeks to get used to it. The Europeans

[21:38] the banking system is crumbling before

[21:40] their eyes. We had we lost a major

[21:41] Belgian Dutch bank on Monday. The Irish

[21:44] banks came under tremendous pressure

[21:45] yesterday. It's an Italian bank today.

[21:48] And the UK banks I'm afraid have many

[21:52] problems. I'm not even going to start on

[21:53] on Spain and and

[21:56] Germany.

[21:57] >> And how much of this is contagion from

[21:58] the US versus their own home-grown

[22:01] mortgage problems?

[22:02] >> That is the question everyone everyone

[22:04] asked me exactly that question. And the

[22:05] European perspective is it's all the

[22:07] Americans problem. There's a lot of

[22:08] finger wagging going on over there. But

[22:10] unfortunately

[22:11] a lot of it is their own problems.

[22:12] Partly they didn't regulate their own

[22:14] banks participation in the United

[22:15] States. So, US mortgage problem comes

[22:17] back to Europe because of well they

[22:19] decided they decided to buy it. No one

[22:20] made them buy it.

[22:21] >> No, but they bought these products that

[22:23] Wall Street was selling. They bought the

[22:24] most esoteric strange and turns out

[22:26] toxic products. Yes, those were bought

[22:28] by European banks. They also have their

[22:29] own problems mortgage problems clearly

[22:31] in the UK, in Ireland and in Spain.

[22:34] Other countries debated but I think

[22:35] Italy is on the on the brink and and

[22:37] don't please mention to the French

[22:39] government their major problem in their

[22:40] real estate market if you want to visit

[22:41] France again. Down in Southern France,

[22:43] yes. Vacation homes.

[22:45] So, how have the European governments

[22:47] responded if you compared it to the US?

[22:50] Is it the same MO or different?

[22:52] >> It's very different. It's quite

[22:54] interesting. You think you have chaos

[22:56] and disarray. To me, looking compared

[22:58] with Europe it seems in US is a very

[23:00] orderly process moving towards some sort

[23:02] of conclusion this week. Uh for example,

[23:04] today in in Europe, uh the French came

[23:06] up with a plan, 300 billion euros, let's

[23:08] do a big European-wide bailout plan.

[23:10] Now, that's interesting, it might have

[23:11] potential, we don't know enough about

[23:12] the details, it this sort of leaked out.

[23:14] Uh the Germans said, "No."

[23:17] And they said it very clearly, they said

[23:18] it very publicly, and I I don't think

[23:20] that that's an easy conversation. Now,

[23:22] they're obviously this is on ongoing

[23:24] discussions back and forth, back and

[23:25] forth. Um

[23:26] one day one of these banks is going to

[23:28] go. If it's operating in five different

[23:29] countries, four guys are in, one guy

[23:31] isn't, what do they do?

[23:33] >> So, Susan, back to if if it passes the

[23:36] House the Senate tonight, what are the

[23:38] prospects in the House based on your

[23:40] reporting? And and when will they take

[23:41] it up? Why is there even this confusion

[23:43] about whether it's Thursday or Friday?

[23:44] >> They'll probably take it up Friday.

[23:46] You got 435 members that are facing

[23:49] re-election in 1 month. It's going to

[23:51] It's a real volatile situation. It's not

[23:53] You're You're not going to be able to

[23:54] know right off the bat tomorrow when

[23:55] they come back to session whether or not

[23:58] they've got the votes together. You're

[23:59] not going to see something happen like

[24:01] you did on Monday where they bring a

[24:03] bill to the floor and it failed and the

[24:05] stock market dropped 700 points. They

[24:07] are not going to bring that to the floor

[24:08] unless it's going to pass. At this

[24:10] point, some members are you know, they

[24:12] they need a 12 votes.

[24:14] They It sounds easy, you know, put these

[24:16] tax breaks on and hey, we can find 12

[24:18] people. It's not that easy. A lot of

[24:19] members I talked to say they are still

[24:20] opposed to it for the very basic premise

[24:22] that they don't want the government

[24:24] buying up $700 billion worth of bad

[24:25] assets. They've got to fill it up first.

[24:28] >> Norm, after the

[24:31] failure of the vote on Monday and the

[24:32] markets went south, there was a lot of

[24:35] commentary about the failure of

[24:36] leadership in Washington. Not to lead

[24:39] you to one conclusion, but what do you

[24:40] think is at stake tonight in the Senate

[24:43] actually passing this?

[24:45] >> Well, I think uh you know, if we do not

[24:48] get a package done, then I think we're

[24:50] going to see not just a stock market

[24:52] problem, but we will see that credit

[24:54] crunch hit. And they're going to have to

[24:56] come back and do something more, but it

[24:58] will be an indictment of leadership from

[25:00] the White House through the Treasury

[25:01] Department through all of the

[25:02] congressional leaders. Uh I think that's

[25:05] why we're going to see this package pass

[25:06] the Senate handily, but as Susan said,

[25:09] it is still no sure thing in the Senate.

[25:12] It's much more likely much more likely

[25:14] in part because the public which said

[25:16] many voters said we don't want this when

[25:18] it failed said what's wrong with you,

[25:20] get it done. But you know, it's not just

[25:22] 12 votes, Margaret. It's the 25 Blue

[25:25] Dogs that they might lose. They may need

[25:26] 30 plus votes. And that's going to be a

[25:29] little harder and they've got more

[25:30] chance of getting from the Republicans

[25:31] and the Democrats are going to resent

[25:33] the fact that this is being shoved down

[25:35] their throats. So, it's a major major

[25:37] issue for Democratic leaders and

[25:39] Republican leaders in the House.

[25:41] >> And David, in in your bailiwick, just

[25:43] imagine the scenario tomorrow if the

[25:46] Senate bill didn't pass versus if it did

[25:48] in terms of assessing the stakes.

[25:50] >> I think we would

[25:51] highly likely see a a significant drop

[25:53] in the stock market. I think one of the

[25:55] reasons why we should look at the credit

[25:57] markets isn't just that they're more

[25:58] important here, but they're a little bit

[25:59] less volatile than the stock market.

[26:01] >> They don't react day to day.

[26:02] >> They don't react day to day quite the

[26:04] way the stock market does. They they

[26:05] have somewhat over the past few weeks

[26:07] because of of the of the incredible

[26:09] situation that we're in, but it's not

[26:11] quite as volatile. And so, I would

[26:12] really encourage people to look at

[26:13] something called the TED spread.

[26:15] >> What's the TED

[26:16] >> It's a lot harder to look up, but the

[26:18] TED spread is basically the difference

[26:19] between the the government interest rate

[26:22] and the interest rate that banks charge

[26:23] each other. And it It used to be almost

[26:26] zero the difference and it's shot up to

[26:28] about three percentage points. And so,

[26:30] you want to look at that and see where

[26:31] does the TED spread go? And it really

[26:34] should fall well below one to give us

[26:35] the sense that we're we're getting out

[26:37] of the woods.

[26:38] >> And Simon, how closely

[26:40] is say tonight's vote in the Senate

[26:42] being watched in Europe? What what

[26:45] impact would a vote one way or the other

[26:47] have?

[26:47] >> Well, I think the vote in the Senate and

[26:49] the in the House are obviously being

[26:50] watched very very closely. I'm not sure

[26:52] it's quite as quite as important as as

[26:54] people may may think it is at an

[26:55] technical level. So the Fed and the

[26:57] Treasury have a lot of powers to do to

[27:00] buy things and buy them at prices that

[27:02] you know

[27:03] of their choosing. So the technical

[27:04] level I think the markets understand

[27:07] that

[27:08] you know things are more or less under

[27:10] control irrespective of the vote. I

[27:11] think it's the point the point about

[27:12] political leadership is the key and the

[27:14] point also about the credit market. You

[27:16] know the credit market is under pressure

[27:17] even if you pass this even if the Fed

[27:19] and the Treasury come out meaningless

[27:20] say money morning to buy a hundred

[27:21] billion dollars with this stuff. Does

[27:22] that really relieve the deeper

[27:23] underlying problems in the credit

[27:25] market? I'm not sure that I think it

[27:26] stabilizes the situation. I'd like us to

[27:28] get to November personally get through

[27:29] the election and then figure out deeper

[27:31] solutions. So the a vote would be seen I

[27:35] think by everyone as a as a positive

[27:36] step but a pretty small step at this

[27:39] time in the right direction.

[27:40] >> And in terms of actual impact overseas?

[27:43] >> Well confidence is key and and and

[27:45] confidence is very precarious all around

[27:46] the world right now. We we had a run on

[27:48] an Indian bank yesterday a very good

[27:49] Indian bank I would say to anyone

[27:51] listening and investing and there's a a

[27:54] lot of nervousness. So it really depends

[27:55] how does it play out? What's the body

[27:56] language? What do people you know and

[27:57] that was the Monday that was the shock

[27:59] on Monday. It was the way it happened

[28:01] and that's a global issue this is a

[28:02] global crisis. People are watching

[28:04] globally and small shocks in one part of

[28:06] the world can have big ramifications

[28:08] elsewhere.

[28:09] >> Well keep watching. Thank you all four

[28:11] very much.

[28:20] >> And next tonight an update on the US

[28:23] presidential campaign with Amy Walter

[28:25] editor in chief of the Hotline National

[28:27] Journal's Political Daily and Susan Page

[28:30] Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today.

[28:33] Amy Susan relax I'm not going to ask you

[28:35] any questions about the Fed story okay?

[28:41] The presidential candidates Senators

[28:43] Obama and McCain how are they playing

[28:46] this going up to this vote tonight?

[28:49] >> Well, they look a lot different, or at

[28:50] least one of them looks a lot different.

[28:51] Certainly John McCain looks a lot

[28:53] different than he did a say a day say a

[28:55] day ago. Both candidates now taking a

[28:57] much more

[28:59] basically a softer tone, talking a lot

[29:01] about bipartisanship, the importance of

[29:02] getting this vote passed. Um what we saw

[29:05] from John McCain in the immediate

[29:07] aftermath of the collapse on Capitol

[29:10] Hill was to go along with what a lot of

[29:12] a lot of the Republican leaders were

[29:13] talking about, which was sort of blaming

[29:15] your pointing, blaming this on

[29:16] partisans, blaming this on Democrats.

[29:18] They've sort of taken that back a step,

[29:20] and now you see that his language was

[29:22] much less confrontational today.

[29:24] >> Do you agree with her?

[29:25] >> I think they see themselves in the same

[29:26] boat for once. They're both backing this

[29:28] plan, and they both have problems with

[29:30] their base supporters in in backing it.

[29:32] We had a poll last night with with

[29:34] Gallup, USA Today Gallup poll, in which

[29:36] only 20% of Americans said they wanted

[29:38] this plan passed. 70% wanted it either

[29:40] renegotiated or defeated. That is not

[29:43] That is a hard thing for each of them

[29:45] going into the final 5 weeks of the

[29:46] election to do something that is with

[29:48] odds at odds with the sentiment of so

[29:50] many voters.

[29:51] >> Is there any evidence yet that

[29:53] what what these two candidates want or

[29:56] don't want on this financial package is

[29:58] having any impact on the their fellow

[30:01] members of the Congress of the United

[30:02] States?

[30:03] >> I think if either of them came out

[30:04] against it, it would give a lot of cover

[30:06] to members of their party who wanted to

[30:08] break with the leadership and vote

[30:09] against it. So, I think their support is

[30:11] important in keeping it from falling

[30:12] apart. I don't think it's sufficient to

[30:15] put it together. That that clearly is a

[30:17] task that's taking the powers of the

[30:19] president, the congressional leaders,

[30:21] all of them together.

[30:22] >> And nobody's going to be able to claim

[30:23] credit, in other words, when this is

[30:25] This is assuming it passes the Senate

[30:26] tonight, as everybody expects, and goes

[30:28] and passes the House on Friday, neither

[30:30] Obama nor McCain can say I did it.

[30:33] >> Right. And I think the bigger problem

[30:34] for John McCain is the fact that he was,

[30:36] at least for this week, so closely

[30:38] aligned with a bill that collapsed, and

[30:41] it's certainly taken a toll on him. And

[30:42] if you look, not just at the numbers

[30:44] that have been coming out today in the

[30:45] national polling and the state polling,

[30:47] Obama's been moving ahead, but in our

[30:49] own polling, the the Diageo/Heartland

[30:51] poll, I've noticed that it's now for the

[30:52] first time that uh John McCain's

[30:54] actually dipped under 50% in terms of

[30:57] his approval rating. Um and it uh Barack

[30:59] Obama's at 58%. So So what voters are

[31:02] saying, whether this is specifically

[31:04] related to his uh champion championing

[31:07] name of the process, um or whether this

[31:11] is just the back and forth and the very

[31:14] aggressive campaign that McCain's been

[31:16] running, or whether it's just the fact

[31:17] that when voters are upset about the

[31:18] economy, they think about President

[31:20] Bush. Every time President Bush and the

[31:22] economy's on the front page, that hurts

[31:23] John McCain. It's probably the

[31:25] combination of all those things, but

[31:26] John McCain's in a much different

[31:27] position today than he was even just a

[31:29] week ago.

[31:30] >> Is it correct to say, Susan, that it's

[31:32] about this and only this right now in

[31:34] terms

[31:34] >> I think that's right. Yeah. I think

[31:36] that's one of the I think that is the

[31:38] major effect of this whole Wall Street

[31:40] meltdown. It's washed away all the other

[31:42] issues we were talking about 2 weeks

[31:43] ago. You know, the economy traditionally

[31:45] trumps other things, but an economy that

[31:47] looks like it's on the verge of collapse

[31:49] is definitely the only things people

[31:50] want to talk about. We had more US

[31:52] troops dispatched to Iraq yesterday. Who

[31:53] heard about it? One story we had today

[31:55] in the Hotline about it, one story. Um

[31:57] so nobody talked about it.

[31:59] >> troops.

[31:59] >> Yeah.

[31:59] >> Yeah, today the the uh US commander in

[32:02] Afghanistan went to President Bush and

[32:04] said, "Please give us more troops."

[32:05] >> That's right.

[32:05] >> That made the wire.

[32:07] >> And this is one story for the whole day.

[32:08] >> From

[32:09] >> What uh

[32:10] >> You talked about the polls. Just flesh

[32:12] that out a little bit. They They are

[32:14] moving, are they not, the national

[32:15] polls?

[32:15] >> They are. We're seeing Obama opening up

[32:18] a lead in almost every national poll

[32:20] that's out there. Now

[32:21] in some cases it's a four or five point

[32:23] uh ours have been five points for the

[32:25] last basically last 5 days, for the

[32:27] course of this week opening up a pretty

[32:28] consistent lead. And we're also seeing

[32:30] it in some of these state polls. A

[32:31] flurry came out today. Some have big big

[32:34] big leads for Obama in places like

[32:36] Florida, for example, Um we've seen him

[32:39] up anywhere from four points

[32:42] to closer to nine points. There was a

[32:44] 15-point poll in Pennsylvania that it's

[32:46] not likely that he's up 15 points, but

[32:48] there are two other polls that show him

[32:49] up seven and eight points. In fact,

[32:51] every poll that I've seen that's come

[32:53] out, this is from CNN and the Quinnipiac

[32:55] that have come out today from all

[32:57] battleground states, Florida, Minnesota,

[32:59] Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia, all have

[33:03] Barack Obama ahead.

[33:05] >> How do you read those, Susan?

[33:06] >> I think one thing to look at is what's

[33:07] happening with women voters. Women are

[33:09] more swing voters than than men voters

[33:11] are. We see movement among women

[33:13] historically, historically, it's always

[33:15] true. Women move more between the two

[33:17] parties than men do. And we've seen

[33:20] Barack Obama on his economic message

[33:22] make inroads even among married women.

[33:25] Married women are a Republican group.

[33:27] They feel more financially secure

[33:28] usually than single women who are a

[33:29] Democratic group. We see them even up

[33:32] among married married white women now in

[33:35] the Time poll that came out today.

[33:36] That's that's important. That's a group

[33:38] that Republicans need to win if they're

[33:40] going to win a national election.

[33:41] Although you know, what's really

[33:41] interesting that I've been noticing in

[33:44] looking at our poll, too, is the fact

[33:45] that where Obama has been consistently

[33:48] underperforming where other Democrats

[33:50] have been in the past, John Kerry or an

[33:52] Al Gore, is among

[33:54] unmarried white women.

[33:57] And he's not doing as well as he as he

[34:00] as other Democrats have done. So, even

[34:02] as the economy has been front and center

[34:05] in the news. Where he's doing well then,

[34:06] too, I think Susan is absolutely right.

[34:08] He's opening up a lead among women

[34:10] overall, and he's leading in groups

[34:12] where Democrats haven't traditionally

[34:14] done as well, especially among

[34:15] independent voters and voters that

[34:18] are college-educated independent voters.

[34:20] >> Now, speaking of the polls, and of

[34:22] course tomorrow night is the vice

[34:23] presidential debate. There's been some

[34:25] changes there, too, has there not? And

[34:27] Sarah Palin versus Joe Biden.

[34:29] >> I would predict uh confidence that Sarah

[34:31] Palin will exceed expectations tomorrow

[34:33] night because expectations have been so

[34:35] lowered uh with these interviews in

[34:37] which she's been had a kind of faltering

[34:39] performance.

[34:40] Um but we have seen some of the uh some

[34:42] of the excitement that she brought to

[34:44] the Republican ticket. He's also a

[34:46] little bit and some of the real

[34:47] questions raised about is she qualified

[34:50] to take over as president if that should

[34:51] become necessary. I think she's got a

[34:53] difficult affirmative task tomorrow

[34:55] night and that is to persuade people

[34:57] that they could trust her with the Oval

[34:59] Office if that became necessary. Her

[35:00] task is not only to tear down uh Barack

[35:03] Obama, although that's part of it. She

[35:04] has a job to do in terms of bolstering

[35:06] her own reputation and I think that's

[35:08] true not only for this election, but

[35:09] also for for her future leadership in

[35:11] the Republican Party. You know, she does

[35:13] well tomorrow night, Sarah Palin will be

[35:14] a leader of the Republican Party in

[35:17] after November whether the McCain-Palin

[35:19] ticket wins or not, but it hinges on her

[35:21] making this case to Americans tomorrow

[35:23] night.

[35:24] >> And does the the problem with the uh the

[35:26] financial crisis and the economy affect

[35:29] that as much as it used to be the issue

[35:31] of until a few days ago was foreign

[35:33] policy experience? Is it now all of a

[35:35] sudden the economy?

[35:36] >> Well, absolutely in being able to answer

[35:38] those questions effectively and and I

[35:39] think the the the good news for Sarah

[35:41] Palin right now though is for as bad a

[35:43] week as she's had her week and a half,

[35:45] well, her numbers have dropped. It's not

[35:47] like they've kind of gone off a cliff.

[35:48] So, I think that voters are still

[35:50] holding back judgment here and that

[35:53] that's why this debate becomes so

[35:54] important for her is that, you know, is

[35:57] is it going to open the floodgates for

[35:59] her to drop or or is it just she's just

[36:01] going to basically hold steady where she

[36:02] is? May not have a tremendous impact on

[36:04] the race good or bad, but won't at least

[36:06] be a drag. And also, will we see the

[36:09] faltering uncertain Sarah Palin that

[36:10] we've seen in interviews in the last

[36:12] week or will we see that kind of lively

[36:14] charismatic down-to-earth hockey mom

[36:17] that was uh that played so well at the

[36:19] Republican Convention? Which one's going

[36:20] to show up tomorrow? Well, and it's

[36:21] pretty clear she wants that one to show

[36:23] up because she's been talking about Joe

[36:24] Sixpack. So, expect more Joe Sixpack,

[36:27] less Putin.

[36:28] >> Is it uh pure guesswork as to uh however

[36:31] well she does uh tomorrow night, what

[36:34] effect it would have on the race itself,

[36:37] McCain versus Obama, or is it is it is

[36:39] it uh part of the big the big question?

[36:43] >> I do think that there's a lot of

[36:44] guesswork in that. Certainly, if it's

[36:45] disastrous, that's very different than

[36:47] if it's because you very very well. But,

[36:50] um I think fundamentally, it's the next

[36:51] two presidential debates that people are

[36:54] going to watch out for. And what they're

[36:55] going to I think it's how these two

[36:57] candidates how these two men wear over

[36:59] the course of three debates. That that's

[37:01] what those undecided voters are going to

[37:02] base their decision on.

[37:03] >> You know, I've been covering uh

[37:04] elections since 1980. There's never been

[37:06] a case where a vice presidential debate

[37:09] made any difference in the November

[37:10] outcome.

[37:11] >> So, you think it's the same thing?

[37:13] >> Uh so, I I think it's I think it's

[37:15] unlikely. It could it could mean more

[37:16] for Sarah Sarah Palin's future than for

[37:18] John McCain's future.

[37:19] >> All right. Amy.

[37:22] Thank you both very much, Susan and Amy.

[37:28] >> [music]

[37:32] >> And to our final campaign report from

[37:34] Florida, Judy Woodruff looks at where

[37:36] the former supporters of Hillary Clinton

[37:38] have landed.

[37:44] >> When Alaska Governor Sarah Palin showed

[37:46] up recently at The Villages, a

[37:48] retirement community north of Orlando,

[37:51] tens of thousands of people turned out.

[37:53] There was a buzz of excitement not seen

[37:56] before she was added to the ticket last

[37:58] month.

[37:59] >> I thought she was wonderful today. Look

[38:01] at the other people that we've had in

[38:03] there. Um

[38:04] I mean, you can go back to Abraham

[38:06] Lincoln. He came from a farm. What's the

[38:08] matter with her being a governor of

[38:09] Alaska? I think it's a great

[38:11] accomplishment.

[38:12] >> She's honest. She just says what she is.

[38:15] Doesn't try to say what you want to

[38:18] hear.

[38:18] >> I was 100% for McCain, but I wasn't

[38:21] jazzed. I've been here for Fred

[38:23] Thompson, and I've been here for

[38:25] Giuliani, and I've been here for Romney,

[38:27] and nothing compares to them.

[38:29] >> We didn't run into any former supporters

[38:32] of Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton in

[38:34] this crowd, but Republican organizers

[38:37] say they are finding them, especially

[38:40] since Palin was introduced.

[38:42] >> From the first day we saw a large number

[38:43] of volunteers come into the office

[38:46] wanted to volunteer. They were saying

[38:48] that they had a connection with Governor

[38:49] Palin.

[38:50] They were excited to see that Senator

[38:52] McCain had added a woman to the ticket.

[38:55] Democrat women from the Democrat side,

[38:57] the independent side, they're coming out

[38:59] to support Sarah Palin. I met some today

[39:01] that said, "I just want to tell you,

[39:02] Chairman, I'm a Democrat."

[39:05] >> It's a sensitive subject for Democrats,

[39:08] especially here in Florida, where

[39:10] Hillary Clinton ran well ahead of Barack

[39:13] Obama in the January primary. Neither

[39:16] campaigned here after a messy squabble

[39:19] with the national party over the early

[39:21] primary date and a threat not to seat

[39:24] Florida convention delegates.

[39:26] University of South Florida political

[39:29] scientist Susan McManus says she still

[39:32] runs into women who supported Hillary

[39:34] Clinton and are upset by what happened.

[39:37] >> They were so enthused that she would be

[39:39] the first woman president.

[39:41] It's kind of hard to stomach, especially

[39:43] when they look on the other side and see

[39:45] a woman on a ticket.

[39:46] So, Hillary's got a lot she can do still

[39:49] here in Florida. She's got to pull these

[39:51] people

[39:52] back over to the Democratic side, and

[39:55] we you know, they reluctantly

[39:57] she has to convince them to vote for the

[39:59] Obama ticket.

[40:02] >> Senator Clinton has campaigned in

[40:04] Florida twice for Senator Obama, and the

[40:07] campaign says she'll be returning soon.

[40:10] >> I believe this country is worth fighting

[40:12] for. That's why I got up every morning

[40:15] and did my best to make my case to the

[40:17] American people. We fell a little short,

[40:20] but I will never quit fighting for

[40:22] America, and that's why I am fighting to

[40:25] elect Barack Obama the next president of

[40:27] the United States.

[40:29] >> Hillary, I'm sorry. I know you have to

[40:32] do this. You think it's part of your

[40:33] Democratic duty, and you have to do

[40:36] this, but I cannot support you in that.

[40:40] >> For one pair of Hillary Clinton

[40:42] supporters though, retirees Annie

[40:44] Goodridge and Frank Caballo, there'll be

[40:47] no convincing.

[40:49] >> I voted for Hillary. We won Florida.

[40:52] And yet, we didn't know we would even be

[40:55] counted until the convention. That is

[40:58] wrong, wrong, wrong.

[41:00] >> We just don't want to hear hope and

[41:02] change, but not know what he means by

[41:05] that. I feel if he's elected, we will

[41:07] have a socialist welfare

[41:10] dominated state, and we don't need that

[41:12] in our country.

[41:14] >> But Obama's state director, Steve

[41:16] Schale, contends there are very few

[41:18] voters like Goodridge and Caballo.

[41:21] >> The Clintons are very popular in

[41:22] Florida, they always have been. The

[41:23] largest margin of any presidential

[41:24] election since 1988 in Florida was Bill

[41:26] Clinton's 6-point win in 1996. They

[41:29] spent a lot of time in Florida,

[41:31] uh and um I mean, obviously have a a

[41:33] great history here. And again, um we

[41:34] feel like more as Democrats look at this

[41:37] race, and they understand that the the

[41:39] battle over the future of the country is

[41:41] the most important battle we can have,

[41:43] we're finding more and more Democrats

[41:44] coming home. Uh and again, you know, the

[41:47] the institutional Clinton support here

[41:48] in Florida has been fantastic in helping

[41:50] us identify where we have trouble areas,

[41:52] and and and and uh and where we need to

[41:54] work. But again, I'm confident that on

[41:55] election day, uh we're going to be in

[41:57] really good shape.

[41:59] >> It's no coincidence that former

[42:01] President Clinton showed up in Orlando

[42:03] today for his first appearance on behalf

[42:06] of Senator Obama.

[42:07] >> He'd be a lot better for Florida.

[42:11] This is a young state. It is an

[42:12] increasingly diverse state.

[42:16] There's a great article in the paper

[42:18] today just talking and one of the

[42:19] national papers pointed out the

[42:20] increasing diversity just of Florida's

[42:23] Hispanic population.

[42:25] Never mind.

[42:27] Never mind all the rest of it.

[42:30] You need a president

[42:33] who understands that you are a microcosm

[42:36] of America's future and the world's

[42:39] present.

[42:40] >> The Obama campaign has also recruited to

[42:42] their cause former loyal Clinton

[42:45] supporters like Anna Cruz who helped

[42:48] organize Florida for the New York

[42:50] Senator.

[42:50] >> It was somewhat heartbreaking right

[42:52] after

[42:53] when the primary. But

[42:56] with that being said, there's too much

[42:59] at stake here to lick our wounds

[43:01] for too too long and too much at stake

[43:03] here to to not be supportive.

[43:06] Trust me, Barack Obama has far more in

[43:08] common with Hillary Clinton than John

[43:10] McCain will ever. And at the end of the

[43:12] day, this is about the Supreme Court

[43:13] nomination. This is about struggling

[43:16] working class families. This is about

[43:18] our economy. This is about the war in

[43:19] Iraq. And this is about change and hope.

[43:22] >> But John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin

[43:25] as his running mate complicated Obama's

[43:28] effort to appeal to Hillary Clinton

[43:30] supporters and other women who

[43:32] considered voting Democratic.

[43:34] >> I had the same feeling.

[43:35] >> It led Obama to run TV spots in Florida

[43:38] and a few other critical states designed

[43:41] to appeal directly to women voters.

[43:43] >> John McCain opposed a law to give women

[43:46] equal pay for equal work. University of

[43:49] Miami president Donna Shalala, former

[43:52] Secretary of Health and Human Services

[43:54] in the Clinton administration and a good

[43:56] friend of the Clintons, argues very few

[43:59] women who supported Hillary Clinton are

[44:01] likely to turn around and vote

[44:03] Republican. Remember her core of voters

[44:06] are the core of the Democratic Party. I

[44:09] do not see them going to John McCain.

[44:12] And I don't think that Sarah Palin pulls

[44:14] them in. There are too many differences

[44:17] in terms of public policy between the

[44:19] two candidates

[44:21] at the end of the day, and she has sent

[44:23] the clearest message to her supporters,

[44:26] and is campaigning wherever um Senator

[44:30] Obama has asked her to campaign.

[44:32] >> Even so, the University of South

[44:34] Florida's Susan MacManus insists it is

[44:37] critical for Senator Clinton to revisit

[44:40] Florida as much as possible.

[44:42] >> So, what is your again, what is your

[44:43] sense of of of how many there are of

[44:46] these

[44:47] uh disaffect or former Hillary Clinton

[44:50] supporters who are looking at the other

[44:53] party?

[44:53] >> My guess is, you know, maybe 1% to 2%.

[44:57] That's probably a little bit high, but

[44:59] even a half a percent in a divided state

[45:02] is

[45:03] going to be a problem for a Obama

[45:05] campaign.

[45:07] >> With poll showing a volatile race in

[45:10] Florida, every voter group, including

[45:12] supporters of Hillary Clinton, will be

[45:14] carefully cultivated by both campaigns

[45:17] between now and election day.

[45:23] >> [music]

[45:27] >> And finally tonight, war from a

[45:29] reporter's point of view. Jeffrey Brown

[45:32] has a book on conversation.

[45:35] For much of the last decade, Dexter

[45:36] Filkins reported from Afghanistan and

[45:38] Iraq. One of a small group of

[45:40] journalists who became the day-to-day

[45:42] chroniclers of war for American readers

[45:44] and viewers. A correspondent for the New

[45:46] York Times, Filkins reported on events

[45:48] for his paper, and also often joined us

[45:50] on the NewsHour from Baghdad. Now he's

[45:53] written a book, The Forever War, that

[45:55] takes the reader to the front lines and

[45:56] behind the scenes, a portrait of war and

[45:59] a reporter's a to cover it. Dexter

[46:01] Filkins joins me now and welcome.

[46:03] >> Nice.

[46:04] >> And I guess I can say thank you for the

[46:05] year help during those years on the news

[46:08] hour.

[46:09] The first thing that struck me in

[46:11] reading this was that it's not a

[46:12] narrative in the traditional sense of

[46:15] here's how here's what happened point A

[46:16] to point to B point B. It's episodic

[46:19] >> Yeah.

[46:19] >> impressionistic. What what what were you

[46:21] what were you trying to do?

[46:22] >> Well, I I felt like uh there were there

[46:25] been a lot of books on Iraq and

[46:26] Afghanistan and most of them even the

[46:28] really really good ones

[46:29] >> Yeah.

[46:30] >> kind of written from 10,000 ft up, you

[46:31] know, um from a distance

[46:34] uh discussing decisions in Washington or

[46:35] decisions in the field.

[46:37] I wanted to write a book because I

[46:39] thought I could about what it felt like

[46:42] to be there, you know, I wanted to write

[46:43] less an intellectual book than a

[46:45] visceral one than an emotional one, you

[46:47] know, what's it what's it like to be at

[46:49] a car bombing or what's it like to sit

[46:51] across from a

[46:52] Sunni sheikh who's lying to you, you

[46:54] know, um I wanted to kind of bring the

[46:56] reader with me.

[46:57] >> It's it's very visceral and in that

[46:59] meant getting you

[47:02] more into the story than we're used to

[47:04] in reading our daily newspaper.

[47:06] >> Yeah, I mean, you know, in a book you

[47:07] can do whatever you want. So uh yeah,

[47:09] there I was.

[47:10] >> Did you feel at the time that you could

[47:12] tell the story? I mean, if you take

[47:14] yourself back a few years

[47:16] how much did you feel you were seeing?

[47:18] >> The things that newspapers do are very

[47:20] very important and uh but it's news, you

[47:22] know, it's very formal and it's um you

[47:24] know, you move the ball down the field

[47:26] every day, but I I kind of you know, you

[47:28] can't get a lot in there about what it

[47:30] felt like and what you really kind of

[47:31] saw like the blood the sweat the sand

[47:34] and and the fear and the ambiguity. I

[47:37] mean, that's much harder, you know, and

[47:38] that's kind of what I wanted to do here

[47:40] because it really is at the essence of

[47:42] the place.

[47:43] >> There's there's a section in this book

[47:44] where you talked about you take a

[47:46] helicopter ride and and you think out

[47:48] loud and you write about this

[47:51] sense of seeing a larger picture and

[47:53] then and you say you write, I thought to

[47:55] myself, useful to think this way, to

[47:57] take a wider view of the world. Too much

[48:00] detail, too much depth clouded the

[48:02] mind."

[48:03] >> Yeah. Yeah. I remember that moment very

[48:05] well. I was in a helicopter, a Black

[48:07] Hawk. And you know, the Black Hawks are

[48:08] extraordinary. You go about 140 mph,

[48:10] you're about 70 ft off the ground, and

[48:12] you're actually leaping over the

[48:13] telephone wires as you blow across Iraq.

[48:17] And I was kind of looking out at the

[48:18] country, you know, um and I was taking a

[48:21] longer view. I mean, literally and

[48:22] figuratively. And I thought uh at the

[48:24] time

[48:25] you know, maybe I've seen too many car

[48:27] bombings. You know, maybe I'm maybe

[48:28] there's something else going on here,

[48:30] you know, that I that I need to think

[48:31] about. And And I thought that from time

[48:33] to time, but um

[48:35] in that particular moment, it was very

[48:37] jarring, yeah.

[48:38] >> The other uh striking another striking

[48:40] thing here is the range of people you

[48:42] talked to. The officials, of course, and

[48:44] the soldiers, but

[48:45] good guys, bad A lot of bad guys.

[48:48] A lot of regular folks on the street,

[48:50] victims.

[48:52] When you're trying to get your arms

[48:53] around something this big,

[48:55] >> Yeah.

[48:55] >> how do you feel about it as you're doing

[48:57] it? As you know, who do I need to talk

[48:58] to? How much do I need to talk?

[49:00] >> Uh yeah. I mean, I've never ever been

[49:03] confronted with anything so big, uh

[49:06] particularly as Iraq. I mean, I spent

[49:07] most of this book is from Iraq. A lot A

[49:09] lot from Afghanistan, but most from

[49:10] Iraq. Something so gigantic, so

[49:12] complicated, but so changing all the

[49:14] time. I mean, Iraq was this kind of

[49:16] kaleidoscope, you know? And so, whenever

[49:18] you felt like you had a fix on it,

[49:20] it would just rearrange itself for you

[49:22] right in front of you. So, there was

[49:23] really no end to what you could do. I

[49:25] mean, there was no There was always more

[49:27] to do and kind of every It often seemed

[49:29] like every time I opened a door in Iraq,

[49:32] there were 90 other doors, you know?

[49:34] >> You also put yourself in in harm's way,

[49:37] in great great danger.

[49:39] And I I I wondered as I was reading it,

[49:41] um

[49:42] do you do you think about it as you're

[49:43] doing it? Uh do you do you think to

[49:45] yourself, "This is dangerous, but I have

[49:47] to do it"? Or Or do you just kind of

[49:49] rush in because

[49:51] that's the story and you got to go?

[49:53] >> Yeah, kind of depends. I mean, you know,

[49:54] often you're just, you know, driving

[49:56] down the road and something bad starts

[49:59] happening. And then you just, you know,

[50:01] I mean, I'm thinking of, you know, any

[50:03] number of gun battles that I just happen

[50:05] to drive into. I just took a wrong turn

[50:06] and there was. But, um

[50:08] And so, a lot of the times you don't

[50:09] really have enough time to make make up

[50:11] your mind.

[50:12] Um, but, you know, the the violence

[50:14] there is just something to be dealt

[50:16] with.

[50:16] >> There there's the the very very

[50:19] harrowing story of pollution.

[50:21] >> Yeah.

[50:22] >> Uh, and in that case, you and the

[50:24] photographer were in the, as often, I

[50:27] guess,

[50:28] you were, um, protected by others.

[50:30] >> Yeah.

[50:30] >> And in one instance, you and a

[50:33] photographer, um, were trying to get a

[50:35] shot and a Marine who was escorting you

[50:37] was was shot and killed.

[50:38] >> Yeah. Yeah, that was really awful.

[50:41] Um, yeah. I mean, that that was a split

[50:44] second. Like, uh, like so many things in

[50:46] war. Uh,

[50:47] uh,

[50:47] Ashley Gilbertson and I, the

[50:48] photographer, we were going into a

[50:50] minaret because there was a a dead a

[50:52] dead insurgent at the top of the

[50:54] minaret. You know, we thought the battle

[50:56] was over.

[50:57] We stepped into the minaret. Uh, right

[50:59] when we did that, uh, a couple of

[51:01] Marines kind of put their hand out. Uh,

[51:03] you know, I mean, I think I was 43 years

[51:05] old at the time. Those guys were like

[51:07] 21. Um, but they said, "We'll go first."

[51:10] Um

[51:11] And they went first. And one of them was

[51:12] killed.

[51:13] >> You were, um, also write about

[51:16] This is this is going back to trying to

[51:18] get a your arms around the story you

[51:20] write that there were you as you say two

[51:22] conversations in Iraq.

[51:23] >> Yeah.

[51:24] >> Um, one the Iraqis were having with the

[51:25] Americans and and one they were having

[51:27] among themselves.

[51:29] >> Right. That's right.

[51:30] >> how how do you wind your way through

[51:32] those two conversations?

[51:33] >> Well, you know, I I was an American,

[51:35] but, uh, I didn't have a uniform. Uh, I

[51:37] didn't have a gun. Uh, and because of

[51:39] that, I often was able to see things, I

[51:42] think, that a lot of the Americans

[51:43] >> Utilities rely on natural gas for power

[51:45] generation as a cleaner alternative to

[51:47] coal.

[51:48] So, how can we meet energy demands,

[51:50] reduce costs, and stay environmentally

[51:52] focused?

[51:54] Good question.

[51:58] >> Oregon's economy is hurting, and gas

[52:00] prices are out of control. But, Jeff

[52:02] Merkley can't see the forest for the

[52:04] trees. Jeff Merkley voted to increase

[52:06] the gas tax four different times, and

[52:09] Jeff Merkley supported all kinds of

[52:11] job-killing tax hikes. Merkley voted for

[52:13] higher personal income taxes, higher

[52:16] taxes on businesses, higher property

[52:18] taxes. Merkley even voted against a

[52:20] kicker tax refund. Jeff Merkley, he's

[52:23] bad for job growth in Oregon.

[52:25] >> The National Republican Senatorial

[52:26] Committee is responsible for the content

[52:27] of this advertising.

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[52:59] >> All right, I know what you're wondering

[53:00] after that man versus woman survey

[53:02] thing. Does Steve Dunn really like to

[53:05] Well, you know. Here he is with

[53:06] tonight's Circular File.

[53:08] >> No, we don't know.

[53:09] >> I don't even want to know.

[53:12] >> And tonight's Circular File from

[53:14] Wisconsin.

[53:15] >> Where a man is now in jail for trying to

[53:16] siphon gasoline from a van. Now, he

[53:18] probably would have gotten away with it

[53:20] had it not been for the lighter.

[53:23] It was dark out. Apparently, the guy

[53:24] couldn't see what he was doing, so he

[53:26] pulled out his cigarette lighter, and

[53:28] then you saw this one coming. A blast of

[53:30] fire burned him, caused nearby residents

[53:32] to call police, and hey, maybe nobody

[53:34] told the guy gasoline and fire not a not

[53:36] a real good combination.

[53:36] >> Didn't he have a flashlight available?

[53:38] >> Criminals aren't always the brightest

[53:39] people.

[53:40] >> Maybe should have been home surfing the

[53:41] net.

[53:42] I don't know.

[53:43] Thanks for watching.

[53:55] >> Fisher Communications

[53:58] >> Why would a liberal democrat like me

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[54:02] Because I've seen Gordon stand by his

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[54:07] Supporting funding for women's health

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[54:11] drilling in Alaska. And so important to

[54:14] me, he was one of the first Republicans

[54:16] to break with George Bush and his party

[54:18] [music] to end this awful war.

[54:21] His integrity and honesty are good for

[54:24] Oregon.

[54:25] >> I'm Gordon Smith and I approve this ad.

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[55:56] >> Don't forget to put it in the trunk.

[55:58] >> As a teacher, I have serious concerns

[56:00] about measure 60. Not all children learn

[56:03] in the same way, and measure 60's

[56:04] one-size-fits-all approach just won't

[56:07] work. Measure 60 was written by Bill

[56:09] Sizemore, who has no experience in

[56:11] education. It's vague and poorly

[56:13] written, and could have all kinds of

[56:15] unintended consequences. It fails to

[56:17] define how teachers and kids'

[56:19] performance would be measured, and it

[56:21] doesn't say who is judging teachers or

[56:23] how.

[56:24] Please join parents and teachers and

[56:26] vote no on measure 60.

[56:28] >> K2 has been a leader in television

[56:30] innovation for years, and in 2009, the

[56:32] federal government is requiring all TV

[56:35] stations to change the way we broadcast.

[56:37] It will mean spectacular pictures and

[56:39] crystal clear sound, but these changes

[56:42] have a lot of people asking a lot of

[56:44] questions. We've got answers. Go to the

[56:46] katu.com

[56:47] and click on DTV answers. Can you ready

[56:51] for the future? Another example of K2 on

[56:54] your side.

[56:57] >> Spring Awakening at Keller Auditorium,

[56:59] October 21st through 26th.