MSNBC - Election Day 2006 - 9 a.m. (E)

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Transcript

Language: English (original, YouTube automatic captions)

[0:03] 1994.

[0:05] As for President Bush, who campaigned to

[0:07] the very end, today's outcome will be

[0:09] considered a judgment on Iraq and will

[0:12] directly, of course, affect his

[0:13] second-term agenda. We're covering all

[0:15] the bases today from the campaigns to

[0:17] the ballot box. Three tight races that

[0:20] could decide the Senate. NBC's Kevin

[0:22] Tibbles is in St. Louis, Missouri. NBC's

[0:24] David Shuster is in Richmond, Virginia.

[0:27] NBC's Ron Bloom is in Memphis,

[0:28] Tennessee. We begin this hour in

[0:30] Missouri, where the race for the Senate

[0:32] is extremely close. It's a key state for

[0:34] Democrats. Their candidate, Claire

[0:36] McCaskill, who is fighting to unseat

[0:38] Republican Senator Jim Talent. NBC's

[0:40] Kevin Tibbles is in St. Louis this

[0:42] morning. Kevin, good morning.

[0:45] >> Hi, Andrea. Well, putting it close to is

[0:47] putting it mildly. This thing is going

[0:49] right down to the wire and the latest

[0:51] MSNBC McClatchy poll has Democratic

[0:53] challenger Claire McCaskill ahead by a

[0:56] sliver, 1% and the margin of error

[0:59] essentially makes that a dead heat here

[1:01] and it has been a dead heat right from

[1:03] the get-go. Republican Senator Jim

[1:06] Talent is trying to hold on to his seat.

[1:08] He and McCaskill are traveling across

[1:11] the state today trying to get their

[1:13] supporters out. Now, this whole Senate

[1:15] election here may come down to one sort

[1:18] of side issue, a wild card issue, and

[1:21] that is the state ballot vote initiative

[1:24] on stem cell research. Polling at this

[1:26] point in time says that the stem cell

[1:28] research

[1:29] proponent will pass. That may be a boon

[1:32] to McCaskill.

[1:34] The Republican has come out against it

[1:35] as have many of the religious leaders

[1:37] here and that could actually be, as I

[1:39] said, the wild card that could turn this

[1:41] thing or tip this thing in the favor of

[1:43] either candidate. Andrea?

[1:45] >> Thanks, Kevin Tibbles in Missouri. And

[1:46] now to the hotly contested race between

[1:48] Senator George Allen and Democratic

[1:50] challenger Jim Webb. There is new

[1:53] information this morning that the FBI is

[1:55] now looking into possible voter

[1:56] intimidation in that race. More on that

[1:59] later, but first a closer look at what's

[2:01] at stake. Hardball's David Shuster is in

[2:03] Richmond, Virginia. David.

[2:05] >> Andrea, statistical dead heat going into

[2:07] this election day is not at all where

[2:09] Republican incumbent George Allen ever

[2:10] wanted to be. A number of Republicans

[2:12] have talked about Allen being a possible

[2:14] 2008 presidential contender, but his

[2:17] race here was set back by a series of

[2:18] missteps including the use of the term

[2:20] "macaca" and questions about Allen's

[2:22] racial insensitivities. Largely though,

[2:25] Allen has been on the defensive over

[2:26] Iraq. The Democrat in this race, former

[2:28] Reagan Navy Secretary Jim Webb, has made

[2:31] Iraq the number one issue. Webb is a

[2:32] Vietnam veteran who has a son serving in

[2:35] Iraq and he has repeatedly put Allen on

[2:37] the defensive over how the war has been

[2:39] handled by the Bush administration and

[2:40] how it's been overseen by members of

[2:42] Congress including George Allen. By all

[2:44] accounts, this is a race about the Iraq

[2:46] war and just how angry voters here in

[2:49] Virginia are about the Iraq war, how

[2:52] it's been handled, and about those

[2:53] supporters in Congress for Iraq

[2:55] including Republican incumbent George

[2:57] Allen. Andrea.

[2:59] >> Thank you, David Shuster in Richmond,

[3:00] Virginia. Now in Tennessee, 40% of

[3:03] registered voters have already placed

[3:05] their ballots in early voting. That

[3:07] speaks volumes for elections in that

[3:09] state and this intense Senate race

[3:11] between Republican Bob Corker and

[3:13] Democrat Harold Ford Jr. NBC's Ron Bloom

[3:16] is live in Memphis today. Ron, both

[3:18] candidates are among the 40% who voted

[3:21] early, correct?

[3:23] >> They did. They both voted early so they

[3:24] could maximize some last minute campaign

[3:26] time. In fact, uh Harold Ford, the young

[3:28] five-term congressman, trying to be the

[3:30] first African-American senator elected

[3:32] from the South, is campaigning just a

[3:34] few blocks from here outside a polling

[3:36] place. He's working the radio stations

[3:38] on the phone. Bob Corker also working

[3:40] the phones. All of this, of course, is

[3:42] key to the Republican Party. Can they

[3:43] hang on to the seat that's being uh

[3:45] given up by the retiring Senate Majority

[3:47] Leader, Senator Frist. So, it is very

[3:49] important. The polls had been even a few

[3:51] weeks ago when early voting began when

[3:53] 40% of those ballots had been cast. The

[3:56] polls in the last few days show Mr.

[3:57] Corker pulling away, but let's remember

[3:59] 40% of the people who cast their votes

[4:01] were casting it when it was a dead heat,

[4:03] a toss-up. And here in Shelby County in

[4:05] Memphis, Harold Ford's hometown, early

[4:07] voting here was 80% larger than it was

[4:09] in the last midterm election, 142,000

[4:12] early votes cast. A very tight race in

[4:14] Tennessee. We'll be watching it all day.

[4:16] >> Thank you for that. We'll be checking

[4:18] back with you all day and into the

[4:19] night, Ron Brown. And in just a few

[4:21] moments, I'll talk to Senator Bill Frist

[4:23] about the race to replace him there in

[4:25] Tennessee. That's coming up at 9:30 a.m.

[4:28] Eastern.

[4:37] Now, that was President Bush much less

[4:39] than an hour ago actually voted. He may

[4:41] be a spectator throughout the rest of

[4:43] the day, but that doesn't mean he's not

[4:44] on edge about the possible outcome and

[4:46] what it means for the Republican Party.

[4:48] NBC's Kevin Corke, now traveling with

[4:50] the president, joins us live from

[4:52] Crawford, Texas. Kevin.

[4:55] >> Andrea, good day to you. President Bush

[4:56] and the First Lady Laura Bush casting

[4:58] their ballots at the fire department

[5:00] here in Crawford, not very far from

[5:01] here, just a couple of blocks away. The

[5:03] president joking with reporters that he

[5:04] felt good and he pretty much had his

[5:06] mind made up about how he would vote.

[5:08] And of course, he also encouraged all

[5:10] Americans to do their duty today

[5:12] regardless of party affiliation and get

[5:14] out to vote. And there's a reason for

[5:16] that. This is of course the culmination

[5:18] of a six-day 10 state journey by the

[5:20] president stumping for Republican

[5:22] candidates across the country as far

[5:24] east as Florida, as far west as Nevada.

[5:26] The idea, at least in the

[5:28] administration, is to rally the base.

[5:30] There's a true belief that in spite of

[5:31] the polls, that if they can really get

[5:34] the base energized, Andrea, there is a

[5:36] chance that they'll be able to hang on

[5:37] to both houses of Congress. They are

[5:39] confident they'll hang on to the Senate,

[5:40] perhaps not as much about the house, but

[5:42] of course, only a few hours from now

[5:44] we'll all know the answer to whether or

[5:45] not that strategy was effective, Andrea.

[5:48] >> And Kevin, just a few months ago, as you

[5:50] pointed out, the president actually

[5:51] voted and here's what he had to say when

[5:53] voting this morning in his home

[5:55] district.

[5:57] >> Uh I encourage all Americans to vote

[5:59] today.

[6:01] We live in a free society

[6:04] and our government is uh

[6:06] uh only as good as

[6:08] uh

[6:09] the willingness of our people to

[6:11] participate in it.

[6:13] >> Will we see a power shift when the polls

[6:14] finally close? Democrats vying for six

[6:17] additional Senate seats. And in the

[6:19] house, they need to pick up 15

[6:21] Republican-held seats to take control.

[6:23] We're joined now by Deputy

[6:24] Communications Director from the

[6:26] Republican National Committee, Danny

[6:27] Diaz, and Democratic Strategist, Rich

[6:30] Masters, representing the DNC. First to

[6:33] you, Danny. Uh we're hearing today in

[6:35] Virginia the FBI looking into possible

[6:37] voter intimidation. Are you checking

[6:40] back with your people and making sure

[6:42] that whatever has been alleged in

[6:44] Virginia is not going to continue today?

[6:47] >> Well, all I can say is Republicans are

[6:48] working hard to get out the vote and

[6:50] encourage people to vote because we

[6:51] believe when they do, we win. And I

[6:53] think the facts prove that. And what

[6:55] we're seeing here nationally is that

[6:57] folks understand the stakes. The polls

[6:59] are closing, enthusiasm is rising on our

[7:01] side, and folks are going out to vote

[7:03] because they recognize that a $2.4

[7:05] trillion tax increase and and weakening

[7:08] our defenses simply isn't right for

[7:10] America right now. So, we're excited

[7:11] about the prospects. We think Republican

[7:13] voters are going out and

[7:15] >> in a Virginia poll today voting and I

[7:17] saw a lot of Republican sample ballots.

[7:18] So, we're excited about the prospects.

[7:20] >> Well, let me ask you, Rich, about those

[7:23] key Senate races. Uh take a look at

[7:25] Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee. Uh what

[7:29] race do you think might cut for the

[7:31] Democrats? Maryland, Montana, they're

[7:33] all extremely close.

[7:35] >> I think you're right, Andrea. They are

[7:36] all very extremely close. If you look at

[7:38] uh Virginia and Missouri uh in

[7:40] particular, there you have two

[7:42] incumbents, uh both of whom uh were kind

[7:45] of expected to cruise to fairly easy

[7:47] victories. And now the polls are showing

[7:49] either too close to call or with the

[7:50] Democrats with an edge.

[7:52] And I know from working on many, many

[7:54] campaigns, if you're the incumbent and

[7:56] you're going in and you're down or tied,

[7:57] you're in really, really bad shape. So,

[7:59] my sense is those are the two that could

[8:02] cut either way. You also have in

[8:05] Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, and Rhode

[8:08] Island larger leads for the Democrats, I

[8:11] think almost everyone is expecting that

[8:13] those are going to go to the Democrats.

[8:14] So, the others that cut either way are

[8:16] going to end up being Virginia,

[8:18] Missouri, and Tennessee. I think it's

[8:20] really, really difficult to read what's

[8:22] going on in Tennessee right now. Harold

[8:24] Ford has run a perfect campaign and he's

[8:27] got an amazing get out the vote machine

[8:28] going on right now in Tennessee, the DNC

[8:30] does.

[8:31] >> Danny, let's talk for a second about the

[8:33] Iraq war. That has been the overwhelming

[8:35] issue. Every time the president and his

[8:37] team tried to change it to talk about

[8:38] the war on terror, to talk about the

[8:40] economy we've seen in the polls that

[8:42] people come back to Iraq as their

[8:44] overwhelming concern.

[8:46] How much of a drag is this on every

[8:48] effort that you guys are making today to

[8:50] try to win these elections?

[8:52] >> Well, look, I think people understand

[8:53] the stakes once again and I think they

[8:55] want to win. Is essentially what the

[8:56] vice president said and and in all the

[8:58] polls that's what we've seen. We've seen

[9:00] that they think we can win and they want

[9:02] us to win. And ultimately, you know,

[9:04] when taken in the context of how do we

[9:05] win the larger war on terror, you know,

[9:07] Republicans have put put forward

[9:09] policies to help us do that. Democrats

[9:11] have been against the Patriot Act.

[9:12] Democrats have been against bringing

[9:14] terrorists to justice. Democrats

[9:15] Democrats have been against these tools.

[9:17] >> you've talked about the get out the vote

[9:18] effort. Let me ask you about some of

[9:20] these techniques that are being used

[9:22] this year, particularly the automated

[9:24] voting. Let's take a listen to one of

[9:27] these robo calls being used in Illinois

[9:29] against Tammy Duckworth.

[9:32] >> Hello, I'm calling with information

[9:34] about Tammy Duckworth. Tammy Duckworth

[9:37] said she would seriously consider

[9:38] repealing part of the recent federal tax

[9:41] cut. Tammy Duckworth's plan could mean

[9:43] higher taxes for married couples and the

[9:45] death tax would return. And repealing

[9:47] the current child tax credit would mean

[9:49] that the tax credit would get cut in

[9:51] half. Tammy Duckworth is wrong on taxes

[9:54] and wrong for Illinois. This call was

[9:56] paid for by the National Republican

[9:58] Congressional Committee and not

[9:59] authorized by any candidate or

[10:01] candidate's committee. www.nrcc.org.

[10:05] Thank you for your time.

[10:07] >> Danny, how do you how do you defend

[10:08] that?

[10:09] >> Well, that's a call from another

[10:11] committee, but ultimately it's talking

[10:12] about Tammy Duckworth's record. It's

[10:14] right on the mark. She is not from She's

[10:16] not for making the tax cuts permanent.

[10:18] She does have a weak record and she

[10:20] would be part of a party that would

[10:21] increase taxes on the American people

[10:23] 2.4 trillion dollars. And ultimately

[10:25] >> denied they've denied that, but in any

[10:27] case, what about the the fact of having

[10:30] these calls come, these automated calls?

[10:33] They're misleading. They're often

[10:36] people hang up before they hear who the

[10:38] caller is. I mean, isn't this the kind

[10:40] of procedure that both parties have

[10:42] used, clearly, but the Republicans have

[10:45] used it more this year than

[10:46] >> Well,

[10:47] these aren't the RNC's calls and I you

[10:49] know, I can't speak to what another

[10:50] committee is doing, but what I can say

[10:51] is that we're aggressively getting out

[10:53] the message and Tammy Duckworth is not

[10:55] for making the tax cuts permanent. That

[10:57] Therefore, she's for for the largest tax

[10:59] increases in American history.

[11:00] >> I'll just give you a little bit of time

[11:01] here.

[11:02] >> Great, thanks, Andrea. I mean, I

[11:03] absolutely do want to respond. I mean,

[11:04] this is part of this vaunted strategy

[11:07] that we've been hearing about every two

[11:09] years. And the vaunted strategy of the

[11:11] Republican National Committee is fear

[11:13] and smear.

[11:15] You know, that's what they do in the

[11:16] last 72 hours. And this election is

[11:19] going to be different, I think, Andrea.

[11:21] I mean, I think this election is about

[11:23] passion. This election is about people,

[11:26] Americans voting their hopes and their

[11:28] dreams.

[11:29] And not voting fear and smear tactics

[11:31] that we have in the last 72 hours. They

[11:33] have seen this stuff over and over and

[11:35] over and over and over and over again.

[11:37] And the truth of it is passion is going

[11:39] to drive this election and they are

[11:41] passionate about the fact that the Bush

[11:43] administration has failed in Iraq, but

[11:44] that's just a symptom of a larger

[11:47] problem of incompetence.

[11:49] And what we've seen is we've seen

[11:50] passion on our side. The polls are

[11:52] closing. We have a superior operation

[11:55] and certainly the Democrats are worried

[11:56] about it. National Committee thank you

[11:58] very very much.

[11:59] >> And that is the debate we're hearing

[12:00] around the country today. It's now down

[12:02] to the wire. The voters are galvanized

[12:04] [music]

[12:05] and in this election this close every

[12:07] vote counts. Watchdog groups [music] are

[12:09] on the lookout for problems and we are

[12:11] getting word that the FBI is already

[12:13] looking into [music] possible voter

[12:14] intimidation in Virginia where there is

[12:17] that key Senate race. That [music] story

[12:18] up next.

[12:20] And of course the number one issue is

[12:21] Iraq. How large does that loom in the

[12:24] minds of voters as they head to the

[12:26] polls this morning?

[12:27] You probably won't have to [music] stay

[12:28] up too late to learn which way the

[12:30] election is heading at least in the

[12:31] house. A few races with early [music]

[12:33] closings in Indiana and Kentucky could

[12:36] be a harbinger harbinger of what to

[12:38] come. Join MSNBC's coverage [music]

[12:40] early. Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann,

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[14:23] >> The decision 2006 midterm elections. For

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[14:28] and hottest debates, turn to the

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[15:36] >> One of the hot races [music] to watch,

[15:37] the Ohio Senate race between incumbent

[15:40] Republican Senator Mike DeWine and

[15:42] Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown.

[15:44] The consensus in the [music] polls for

[15:45] the past few months has shown Senator

[15:47] DeWine trailing his Democratic

[15:49] challenger. During his campaign, DeWine

[15:51] pointed to tax cuts and [music]

[15:52] technology initiatives that he says are

[15:54] critical to improving Ohio's flagging

[15:56] economy. His challenger has campaigned

[15:58] hard on the war. Brown voted against the

[16:00] Iraq war as a member of the House and

[16:03] says the US must develop a plan to get

[16:05] troops out of Iraq. Polls in Ohio close

[16:07] at 7:30 tonight.

[16:09] The Democrats' strategy to take back the

[16:11] House and possibly the Senate is coming

[16:13] down to the wire with tight races in

[16:15] battleground states across the Midwest

[16:17] and the East. If they take three seats

[16:20] in Indiana, three in Ohio, four in

[16:22] Pennsylvania, three in New York, and two

[16:24] in Connecticut, the Democrats will have

[16:27] the 15 needed to control the House.

[16:30] On to the Senate, Democrats need to

[16:31] finish ahead in tight races in

[16:32] Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee,

[16:35] Virginia, Ohio, Montana, and Missouri.

[16:38] By the end of the day, all of the votes

[16:40] will be in, but will they all be

[16:41] counted? And will some be counted more

[16:44] than once? For more on the various

[16:46] voting problems that arise during the

[16:47] election, we're joined from Washington

[16:49] by NBC's Chip Reid. Chip, can you shed

[16:52] any more light on what's going on in

[16:53] Virginia? We heard earlier that there

[16:54] were reports of at least charges of

[16:56] voter intimidation.

[16:58] >> Well, what's going on is that the

[16:59] campaign of Jim Webb in Virginia, for

[17:02] the Senate campaign, says that they have

[17:04] received several calls. We don't know

[17:06] how many. Several is all we've heard so

[17:08] far, that some of their supporters have

[17:10] received calls, and they say that their

[17:13] caller IDs have shown these calls is

[17:15] for the most part from out of state and

[17:18] the callers say your polling location

[17:20] has changed or give other information

[17:23] that is unverified at this point and the

[17:25] web campaign believes that it is people

[17:28] causing mischief. It is people calling

[17:29] web supporters from out of state trying

[17:31] to confuse them and it's part of an

[17:34] effort the web campaign says to suppress

[17:36] the vote. As the [snorts] Virginia

[17:38] officials contacted the Justice

[17:40] Department yesterday to let them know

[17:42] what was going on and the and the FBI

[17:45] has now contacted those Virginia

[17:47] officials. So as far as Virginia

[17:48] officials are concerned the FBI is

[17:50] looking into it. Although the FBI has

[17:53] not commented to us yet. Now Democrats

[17:55] say it's an orchestrated effort at least

[17:58] as far as they're concerned with this

[18:00] initial information to suppress the

[18:01] vote. Republicans deny that there if

[18:03] there is anything going on that they

[18:05] have anything to do with it, Andrea.

[18:06] >> And what other types of problems are you

[18:08] tracking today?

[18:09] >> Well, we of course will be watching

[18:10] these electronic voting machines. About

[18:13] 16 million more people are going to be

[18:15] using electronic voting machines than

[18:17] used them last time around and there are

[18:18] concerns that people will be confused.

[18:21] That if there are recounts with all

[18:23] these close races that there are not

[18:25] paper records on many of those machines.

[18:27] And some people believe that they can be

[18:29] hacked by computer hackers. Now that has

[18:32] been shown to be possible in a

[18:33] laboratory but people who defend these

[18:36] machines, their makers and secretaries

[18:39] of state all across the nation say that

[18:40] everything is being watched closely

[18:42] enough that that can't happen. We'll

[18:43] also be watching for reports of voter

[18:45] suppression. There are thousands of

[18:47] Democratic volunteers and lawyers out

[18:49] there looking for intimidation efforts.

[18:51] There are lots of Republican volunteers

[18:53] and lawyers out there looking for the

[18:54] possibility of voting fraud. It's the

[18:57] same things that have happened every

[18:58] year since 2000. You know, all this

[19:01] stuff went on before 2000 but now it is

[19:03] so much more high profile and

[19:04] everybody's watching very closely and

[19:06] the Justice Department has more than 800

[19:08] people out there watching for any kind

[19:10] of voting irregularities, Andrea.

[19:12] >> Okay, thank you very much Chip Reid. And

[19:14] then there's the weather. Rain is on tap

[19:16] for many regions across the country on

[19:18] this election day. NBC weatherplus.com

[19:21] meteorologist Jackie Meretsky is here.

[19:23] Jackie, right now portions of the South

[19:25] are getting doubts pretty good, huh?

[19:27] >> They certainly are. And you know,

[19:28] Andrea, we like to think of Mother

[19:29] Nature as an independent when it comes

[19:31] to politics. However, in some of the

[19:33] nation's tightest races, we're getting

[19:35] heavy rain and some conclusive evidence

[19:36] tends to suggest that severe weather

[19:38] does favor the Republican Party. This is

[19:40] what we're looking at in the deep South.

[19:42] Showers and thunderstorms across the

[19:43] Florida Panhandle, Tallahassee, as well

[19:46] as Pensacola getting hit with showers

[19:48] and thunderstorms. So, that'll continue

[19:49] in the morning. It'll start to clear out

[19:51] from west east across the Panhandle

[19:53] through the afternoon. Meanwhile, heavy

[19:54] rain continues across Tennessee. This is

[19:56] a state that has received a lot of

[19:58] traffic from the president, the vice

[20:00] president, a lot of star power on the

[20:02] Democratic side as well. Now, Memphis

[20:04] should clear out. Nashville still

[20:05] getting heavy rain. And a very quickly,

[20:07] Ohio as well. We're looking at an

[20:09] all-day rain event, Andrea, for

[20:10] Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. So,

[20:13] hopefully, a lot of early voting was

[20:15] done in that state, as well as

[20:16] Washington state, which continues to be

[20:18] under a flood warning. Back to you.

[20:20] >> Okay, thank you very much. And according

[20:21] to the Cook Political Report, this could

[20:24] be an early night for election watchers,

[20:25] at least on the House side. Take a look.

[20:27] Since many of the key congressional

[20:29] races are in the eastern and central

[20:31] time zones, a good idea of the trend

[20:33] could be known early in the evening.

[20:35] That is, if everything goes smoothly.

[20:37] The closely watched races: Rhode Island,

[20:39] New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland,

[20:41] Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and Tennessee

[20:43] on the Senate side. For some election

[20:45] day analysis of some hot races and some

[20:47] hot issues, I want to bring in MSNBC

[20:50] political analysts Pat Buchanan and Bob

[20:52] Shrum. Good morning to you both.

[20:54] >> Hi, Andrea.

[20:55] >> Hey guys. Uh first to you, Pat. Uh we're

[20:57] being told, you know, if you look at

[20:59] Kentucky, if you look at Indiana, you

[21:01] might get a sense there of how some of

[21:03] these House races are going. What key

[21:05] races are you going to be looking at?

[21:07] >> Well, there's three races in Indiana and

[21:08] the Republicans are in trouble in all

[21:10] three. I think the polls close around

[21:12] 6:00 p.m. in Indiana. And if the

[21:15] Republicans lose all three of those, it

[21:18] could be a very long night for the GOP.

[21:20] So, I think I'd look at that. The early

[21:22] returns I would look for in the Senate

[21:24] is one race, Rhode Island. If the

[21:27] Republicans win Rhode Island, I think

[21:29] they hold the Senate. If they lose Rhode

[21:31] Island and Lincoln Chafee goes down, I

[21:34] think the Democratic Party has an

[21:36] excellent chance of taking the United

[21:38] States Senate. I was just talking to

[21:40] James Carville here and I tend to agree

[21:42] with him. If this is a wave election,

[21:46] the Democrats will get 35 seats in the

[21:48] House and they'll take the Senate. But

[21:50] if it's just a normal six-year election

[21:53] and they take only say 20 seats and they

[21:56] don't get the Senate, I think deep down

[21:58] a lot of Democrats will be deeply

[22:00] disappointed.

[22:01] >> Uh well, we've got one right there, Bob

[22:03] Shrum. Are you going to be disappointed

[22:05] if it's 20 seats and just uh not taking

[22:09] the Senate?

[22:09] >> I think a year year ago, year and a half

[22:11] ago on Hardball when I said that we were

[22:13] going to capture the House, people

[22:15] thought I was crazy. So, if we take the

[22:17] House with 20 seats, we should be happy.

[22:19] I don't think that's going to happen. I

[22:20] think we're going to win about 29 or 30

[22:22] seats. I I'm a little more contained

[22:24] than than than James. Uh but I think

[22:27] Rhode Island is critical. I think Pat's

[22:28] right about this. I think the voters of

[22:30] Rhode Island may very well decide

[22:33] whether or not we're going to continue

[22:34] to have a Senate that's in the hands of

[22:37] a Republican leadership that leaves

[22:39] President Bush unaccountable and

[22:40] unchecked. And I think in the end,

[22:43] that's why they're going to vote for

[22:44] Sheldon Whitehouse.

[22:45] >> But Bob, that does mean that voters are

[22:48] turning out some moderate Republicans

[22:50] who have voted with Democratic liberal

[22:52] issues. So, you're really punishing some

[22:54] of your best allies, Charlie Bass in New

[22:56] Hampshire, uh Jim Gerlach in

[22:58] Pennsylvania.

[22:59] >> But they're not our allies, Andrea. The

[23:00] problem is that that that Lincoln Chafee

[23:03] votes for a Republican leadership that

[23:05] won't let the minimum wage bill come to

[23:07] the floor of the United States Senate

[23:09] unless it's attached to a huge tax cut

[23:11] for the wealthy. That won't let Lincoln

[23:14] Chafee votes for a Republican leadership

[23:15] that won't let healthcare for children

[23:17] come to the floor of the United States

[23:19] Senate. So it doesn't matter what he

[23:21] favors if in the end he puts in power

[23:24] people who are going to prevent that

[23:25] from happening.

[23:25] >> is over. Look,

[23:26] >> [laughter]

[23:27] >> look, I agree with you Andrea. I think

[23:28] Charlie Bass up in New Hampshire is an

[23:30] excellent race to watch. I got reports

[23:33] from friends in New Hampshire that

[23:34] Charlie was in deep trouble. Now you get

[23:36] some reports that Charlie may be okay.

[23:39] And you're very familiar with

[23:40] Philadelphia. You've got those three

[23:42] suburban Republican seats which are

[23:44] really up for grabs. Again, if the

[23:47] Democrats sweep all three and they take

[23:49] out Charlie Bass, it is a very bad night

[23:52] for Republicans. But look, let's go

[23:53] let's look at history. I mean, if

[23:55] Democrats, let's say they pick up 20

[23:57] seats, that is 5% of the House of

[24:00] Representatives. That is probably less

[24:02] than an average second term loss by an

[24:05] incumbent president. It will not be a

[24:06] great election for Democrats. They'll

[24:08] win. It's going to be their night, but

[24:10] it will not be what Democrats are

[24:12] looking for and hoping for. And frankly,

[24:15] if I'm a Republican and Republicans hold

[24:17] the Senate and they lose 20 seats in the

[24:19] House, I'll take it and leave the table.

[24:22] >> Uh just quickly, one word answers. Uh

[24:25] Bob, the biggest surprise you could

[24:27] expect tonight?

[24:28] >> Uh the biggest surprise I think Marilyn

[24:30] Musgrave who is one of the most

[24:32] conservative members of the House of

[24:33] Representatives is going to lose in

[24:35] Colorado.

[24:36] >> And you, Pat?

[24:37] >> I think if there was a surprise tonight

[24:39] that I would like to see, it is Steel

[24:41] and Marilyn winning the Senate race, but

[24:43] I'm afraid he's not going to do it.

[24:45] >> Okay, you've heard it there. We'll check

[24:47] back with you later and all night. MSNBC

[24:50] political analysts Pat Buchanan, Bob

[24:52] Shrum, thanks very much to both of you.

[24:54] And the candidates have made their final

[24:56] push. Now it's up to the voters. Coming

[24:58] up next, the Republicans control of the

[25:00] Senate could hinge on Rhode Island's

[25:02] Lincoln Chafee, one of the least

[25:04] conservative members of the Republican

[25:05] Party. We'll talk with the man who

[25:07] [music] could spoil Chafee's re-election

[25:09] hopes, Democratic challenger Sheldon

[25:11] Whitehouse.

[25:11] >> [music]

[25:12] >> And looking for a repeat of history,

[25:13] could this election end up looking a lot

[25:15] like 1994 when Republicans rode to power

[25:18] on a wave of voter anger? You're

[25:20] watching MSNBC's [music] election day

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[28:28] >> The contest in Rhode Island for that

[28:29] Senate seat is quite [music] simply a

[28:31] dead heat. Sheldon Whitehouse, the

[28:33] Democrat, joins us from Warwick, Rhode

[28:35] Island. Welcome, Mr. Whitehouse.

[28:37] Uh First of all

[28:38] >> Andrea. Good to be with you.

[28:39] >> Well, good to be with you. Iraq is

[28:41] clearly the biggest issue there. Um what

[28:44] about the economy? The Republicans have

[28:46] certainly made the claim that with 4.4%

[28:49] unemployment, uh the economy is good for

[28:52] them and

[28:53] they're uh charging Democrats across the

[28:55] country, if they take control, will

[28:57] start raising taxes by canceling tax

[29:00] cuts.

[29:02] >> Well, we're certainly not seeing that

[29:03] kind of economy here in Rhode Island,

[29:04] not for working families anyhow. We're

[29:06] seeing families that are burdened with

[29:08] healthcare costs. We're seeing families

[29:10] whose seniors are very frightened about

[29:11] the hole in the prescription drug plan.

[29:13] We're seeing seniors who are

[29:14] increasingly upset about the healthcare

[29:17] system. Families that are having real

[29:19] concerns about the quality of the

[29:20] education their kids are getting in

[29:21] public schools. What they're seeing in

[29:23] the middle class is basically all the

[29:25] traditional facilities that they've

[29:27] relied on to keep their families strong

[29:29] being drained away from them while uh

[29:31] this war in Iraq goes on and while very

[29:33] wealthy people and corporations seem to

[29:34] be doing very well for themselves at the

[29:36] hands of government.

[29:37] >> You brought Bill Clinton and former

[29:39] President Bill Clinton in for a

[29:40] last-minute stop uh yesterday indicating

[29:43] just how close this has become. You had

[29:45] an 11-point lead a couple of weeks ago

[29:47] in USA Today Gallup. Now it's down to

[29:50] the last poll that we saw was down to

[29:52] three points. Um what's happening there?

[29:55] Are Republicans coming home?

[29:58] >> Well, I think there's a certain amount

[29:59] of just polls bouncing around just for

[30:01] starters. And I think people are coming

[30:03] together to kind of make their last

[30:04] decisions about what this race is really

[30:06] about. And I think that with the focus

[30:08] from President Clinton, people here are

[30:10] going to understand that, you know, it's

[30:12] going to be up to Rhode Island whether

[30:13] we deliver a Republican Senate for

[30:15] George Bush and Dick Cheney. And as uh

[30:18] President Clinton said last night, he'd

[30:20] find it pretty astonishing if uh George

[30:22] Bush and Dick Cheney were dancing in the

[30:24] White House because Rhode Island had

[30:25] delivered them a Republican Senate. So,

[30:27] I think when push comes to shove,

[30:30] >> No, I'm sorry. I was just going to say

[30:31] going through the issues, uh your

[30:33] opponent, Senator Lincoln Chafee, is

[30:35] quite popular in Rhode Island. Uh he is

[30:39] also the lone Republican in the Senate

[30:40] to vote against the Iraq war. He

[30:42] supports abortion rights, legalizing gay

[30:44] marriages, all democratic, somewhat

[30:46] liberal positions. Uh where is the

[30:48] difference between you and Lincoln

[30:50] Chafee?

[30:52] >> In that key first vote, Andrea, where he

[30:54] votes for the leadership, which drives

[30:56] this country in the exact opposite

[30:57] direction. And I think people in Rhode

[30:59] Island understand that. You know, he

[31:01] voted against the Iraq war, and we have

[31:02] an Iraq war with no accountability. He

[31:04] is nominally pro-choice, and yet all of

[31:07] George Bush's right-wing judges get

[31:09] shoved through. You know, he tends uh to

[31:11] favor the gay community here, but you

[31:13] know what? The uh Bush administration

[31:15] has made the gay community a target. So,

[31:18] the result and the effect of having

[31:20] Lincoln Chafee in the Senate is a really

[31:21] bad one on the issues that everybody

[31:23] cares about, and even on the ones where

[31:25] he appears to have the right ideas.

[31:27] >> Okay. Well, as you may have heard

[31:29] earlier, we had both Bob Shrum and Pat

[31:31] Buchanan on, and it pretty well could

[31:33] boil down to Rhode Island. So, good luck

[31:35] to all the candidates there, and thanks

[31:36] very much for taking time out to talk to

[31:38] us today.

[31:41] And coming up next, the new comeback

[31:43] kid. [music]

[31:44] After a bruising defeat in the

[31:45] Democratic primary, Senator Joe

[31:47] Lieberman is now [music] poised to

[31:48] possibly win his re-election bid, if you

[31:51] are to believe the polls, as an

[31:53] independent. We'll head to the

[31:55] Connecticut next.

[31:56] And then, [music] retiring Senate

[31:58] Majority Leader Bill Frist will join us

[32:00] to talk about the balance of power in

[32:01] Washington, and the Democrats' bid to

[32:03] change his [music] red state to blue.

[32:06] You're watching MSNBC's nonstop

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[34:53] >> Welcome back. And the Associated Press

[34:54] is now reporting that there have been

[34:56] problems in some key districts with

[34:58] those new electronic voting machines in

[35:01] both Ohio and Indiana and also in

[35:03] Florida. Some of the machines went on

[35:05] the fritz, they had to resort to paper

[35:07] ballots. We'll be tracking all of that

[35:08] and checking in

[35:10] as well with our own experts Chip Reid

[35:12] and others throughout the day. Now

[35:14] checking in on some other key races to

[35:15] watch right now. NBC's Chris Jansing is

[35:18] in Connecticut, NBC's J.J. Ramberg is in

[35:20] New Jersey and NBC's Alison Carbone is

[35:23] in Pennsylvania. Welcome to all. We'll

[35:25] begin this half hour first to you,

[35:27] Chris.

[35:28] What is happening in that very

[35:30] interesting race, the three-way, sort of

[35:32] three-way race, even though the

[35:33] Republican's not really in it, is it?

[35:36] >> No, he has only been getting

[35:38] single-digit support, but it is a

[35:39] fascinating race, you're right. Ever

[35:41] since Joe Lieberman's stunning loss in

[35:42] the primary to Ned Lamont, this has been

[35:45] an absolutely brutal battle, Andrea, and

[35:47] by far the most expensive in Connecticut

[35:50] history, but also since that primary,

[35:52] Joe Lieberman running as an independent

[35:55] has never lost the lead. He is now

[35:57] leading in the latest poll by 12

[35:59] percentage points, but what I think is

[36:00] really fascinating is when you go behind

[36:03] the numbers. Take a look at where Joe

[36:05] Lieberman is getting his support. He is

[36:07] weakest among Democrats. Remember, he

[36:10] has served as a Democrat for

[36:12] 18 years in the Senate. 37% of Democrats

[36:16] only support him. 51% of independents

[36:19] and 73% of Republicans obviously happy

[36:23] with his support of the war. Now, the

[36:26] other thing is to look at that

[36:28] unaffiliated number is what they call

[36:30] that's what they call independents here.

[36:32] It's because Ned Lamont has criticized

[36:34] Lieberman as too conservative,

[36:36] Schlesinger Alan Schlesinger the

[36:37] Republican as too liberal and so Joe

[36:40] Lieberman has been able to send a

[36:41] message to those unaffiliated voters

[36:44] that he is the middle of the road

[36:46] candidate. He's still a little nervous,

[36:48] he's afraid of a late surge from

[36:49] anti-war candidates, but according to

[36:51] the polls, indeed Joe Lieberman could be

[36:53] the comeback kid.

[36:54] >> Andrea?

[36:55] >> Thank you, Chris. And there are also

[36:56] some really interesting Senate races for

[36:59] moderate Republicans, excuse me, House

[37:01] races for moderate Republicans there in

[37:02] Connecticut. And I know you're going to

[37:04] be there all day tracking all of that.

[37:06] And now on to New Jersey where Democrat

[37:08] Robert Menendez and Republican Tom Kean

[37:10] Jr. are vying for the Senate. NBC's JJ

[37:13] Ramberg is in East Brunswick, New Jersey

[37:15] live for us today. JJ, both candidates

[37:18] have already voted and are back on the

[37:19] road now out campaigning.

[37:22] Um, what are you seeing there today in

[37:23] New Jersey?

[37:25] >> Hi there, Andrea. Yeah, they're both

[37:26] still working very hard on the campaign

[37:28] trail. Later this afternoon, Tom Kean

[37:31] Jr. will be walking the streets with

[37:32] Rudolph Giuliani trying to lend a little

[37:34] bit of star power to him. Bob Menendez

[37:36] will be spending his day at a variety of

[37:38] labor rallies and that's really

[37:40] important to his campaign because he's

[37:42] really depending on the unions to help

[37:44] with his get out the vote campaign. They

[37:45] will be doing a lot for him there. As

[37:47] far as the Republicans go, they will be

[37:49] going door-to-door, they'll be using

[37:50] phone banks, everything so that

[37:52] hopefully I'm here right now at Bob

[37:54] Menendez what he hopes will be place of

[37:56] celebration party, but everything so

[37:58] that he gets to celebrate here or Kean

[38:00] gets to celebrate across town where he's

[38:02] having his party. Andrea?

[38:03] >> And that of course is a key race for the

[38:05] Democrats to hold. Thanks, JJ. Now,

[38:06] Democrats have a good chance to pick up

[38:08] one of the needed six Senate seats today

[38:10] if they're going to take control in

[38:12] Pennsylvania. Senator Rick Santorum is

[38:14] behind in the polls. Democratic

[38:16] challenger Bob Casey Jr. has a

[38:18] double-digit lead, but today voters of

[38:20] course decide. NBC's Alison Carbone is

[38:22] following that race in Pittsburgh.

[38:24] Alison.

[38:27] >> Good morning Andrea. As you can expect

[38:29] both candidates are back in their

[38:30] hometowns today. Bob Casey is in

[38:33] Scranton and Rick Santorum is here in

[38:35] Pittsburgh where he has already cast his

[38:37] vote and later on today he will be

[38:39] attending a get out the vote rally. This

[38:41] has been a grueling year, more than a

[38:44] year and a half long race. Ever since

[38:46] Casey announced that he would run, Rick

[38:48] Santorum has been in trouble in the

[38:49] polls and from that point on it has been

[38:52] a bitter battle between the two and they

[38:54] continue right down to the wire. But as

[38:57] you say today is the day where voters

[38:59] get to decide and here in Pennsylvania

[39:01] for the first time in a general election

[39:04] about 95% of the counties here will be

[39:07] using new electronic voting machines and

[39:10] so there are some concerns here in this

[39:12] state. In fact an organization called

[39:15] electronicline.org

[39:17] is watching this and they've put

[39:19] Pennsylvania on a list of 10 states to

[39:21] watch for potential problems at the

[39:23] poll. But I can tell you this morning I

[39:25] am a Pennsylvania resident so I was able

[39:27] to go to the polls before I came here. I

[39:30] am not in Allegheny County where

[39:32] Pittsburgh is located. I'm right outside

[39:33] in Washington County and I didn't have

[39:35] any troubles voting there this morning.

[39:37] Everything went smoothly. But here in

[39:39] Pennsylvania Andrea, there is not a law

[39:42] that requires a paper trail on the

[39:44] electronic machines and so not all of

[39:47] the counties have the same machines or

[39:49] have that paper trail. And so there are

[39:51] some concerns with that.

[39:52] >> You know Alison I had the same

[39:53] experience but mine didn't quite go so

[39:55] smoothly. I voted in the District of

[39:57] Columbia last week early voting because

[39:58] I was going to be here today and I had

[40:00] trouble with the electronic machine. Uh

[40:03] a couple of times I would hit my choice

[40:05] and it would come right up and a couple

[40:07] of other times I'd push and push and

[40:09] push. I finally had to ask for help

[40:10] feeling like a total idiot. Uh so the

[40:12] machines are really kind of quirky. I've

[40:15] never done this before.

[40:17] >> This was the first time I had used an

[40:18] electronic machine as well because I had

[40:20] voted by absentee ballot here as you

[40:22] might expect in the past and I was

[40:24] surprised at how easily it went but it

[40:26] was a little disconcerting I have to say

[40:28] to just hit that button that says send

[40:31] and have it be gone and not have

[40:32] anything to say okay I've I've done this

[40:34] and hand it in. It's just out there in

[40:36] the ether but we do so much of this in

[40:38] other things in our life as far as the

[40:39] electronics go with banking and other

[40:42] things that people are hoping that

[40:43] that's what is going to work here as

[40:45] well but we'll wait and see.

[40:46] >> Thanks so much Allison. Thank you.

[40:49] One of the ugliest races of this

[40:51] campaign season, the race between

[40:53] Republican Bob Corker and Democratic

[40:55] Congressman Harold Ford Jr. The seat is

[40:57] being vacated by a majority leader Bill

[40:59] Frist. Senator Frist joins me now from

[41:01] Nashville, Tennessee. Senator Frist,

[41:03] good morning.

[41:04] >> Good morning. Good to be with you,

[41:05] Andrea.

[41:05] >> Well, let's talk first about this state,

[41:07] the race for your seat in the Senate.

[41:09] USA Today poll now shows the race a dead

[41:11] heat but the Mason-Dixon poll has showed

[41:14] a double digit lead for Bob Corker. It's

[41:16] been a bruising campaign with nasty ads.

[41:18] First of all, how do you defend the

[41:20] Republican National Committee ad which

[41:22] many people feel was a turning point in

[41:24] this campaign, the call me Harold ad?

[41:27] >> Yeah, no I don't. I don't think anybody

[41:29] defends that that ad and that's why I

[41:30] was glad that the Bob Corker demanded

[41:32] that it come off immediately.

[41:33] >> Well, it didn't come down until it had

[41:35] already served its purpose as many

[41:37] critics say.

[41:37] >> You know, it's interesting cuz the

[41:38] national media, just like you're doing,

[41:40] focuses on that ad and that's just not

[41:42] the issue here. I've traveled all over

[41:43] Tennessee, it's not the issue. The issue

[41:45] has come down to things like lower taxes

[41:48] versus higher taxes. We're for lower

[41:49] taxes, Bob Corker. Bob Corker is for job

[41:51] creation. Bob Corker is for mainstream

[41:54] Tennessee values. His opponent is a

[41:57] career politician and that's what it

[41:58] comes down to. It doesn't come down to

[42:00] that ad and the national media just

[42:01] doesn't get it and that's why Bob

[42:03] Corker's going to

[42:03] >> Senator, but a lot of people have said a

[42:05] lot of people from down there have said

[42:06] that this was a blatant appeal to

[42:08] people's racial fears.

[42:10] >> And I can just tell you, Andrea, I

[42:11] traveled from East Tennessee,

[42:13] Tri-Cities, Chattanooga, Knoxville,

[42:15] Nashville. The bus went on over to

[42:16] Memphis. That race is not an issue in

[42:19] Tennessee. It's jobs, it's security,

[42:22] it's lower taxes, it's mainstream

[42:24] Tennessee values. I can just tell you

[42:25] what the issues are on the ground.

[42:27] >> What about the issue of Iraq? It

[42:29] certainly played big around the country.

[42:32] You had Charlie Crist, a candidate,

[42:34] Republican candidate in Florida

[42:36] yesterday not coming to a wrap-up rally

[42:39] with the president of the United States

[42:40] even though he had invited the president

[42:42] to the Florida rally.

[42:42] >> Yeah, no, that is a big issue around the

[42:44] country. Here in Tennessee, it's the

[42:46] issues that we talked about, sort of

[42:47] mainstream Tennessee versus career

[42:49] politician. But I have traveled to to

[42:51] states where we have other highly

[42:53] contested races. And Iraq's a big issue.

[42:56] The uncertainty, the call for change,

[42:58] the call for we've got to do something

[43:00] different is there. And depending on how

[43:02] dominant that is, it may depend on how

[43:04] well Republicans or Democrats do.

[43:06] Obviously, the Republicans are staying

[43:08] on the message of fighting the war on

[43:09] terror, strong missile defense,

[43:11] terrorist surveillance act, Patriot Act.

[43:13] Where have the Democrats been? They've

[43:15] been weak. We've been strong. And

[43:16] therefore, we do feel we feel strongly

[43:19] that we're going to keep this nation

[43:20] stronger. But that that is a big issue

[43:22] in all these races around the country.

[43:23] There's no question.

[43:24] >> this ends up being 50/50 after all these

[43:26] close races tonight, does Joe Lieberman

[43:29] become the most important man in the

[43:31] Senate?

[43:32] >> Well, we'll see. First of all, not going

[43:33] to do 50/50. We're going to keep

[43:34] majority control. But we clearly are not

[43:37] going to do as well as I would like in

[43:38] terms of keeping all of our seats and

[43:39] that's the way it goes with midterm

[43:40] elections. Joe Lieberman will be at the

[43:43] center at the center of a lot of

[43:44] attention and deservedly so in the

[43:46] United States Senate. He's shown to be

[43:47] an independent thinker. Republicans have

[43:50] a great deal of respect for him. He

[43:52] doesn't always vote with us and he

[43:53] doesn't always vote with the Democrats.

[43:54] In many ways, that's what the American

[43:56] people want.

[43:56] >> Do you have concerns about gridlock,

[43:58] about this really becoming a lame duck

[44:01] period in the Senate, in the House, and

[44:04] closely divided Congress with nothing

[44:06] getting done?

[44:07] >> Yeah, Andrea, I do but I hope that once

[44:09] we get through these elections and we

[44:11] concentrate on the issues, that is the

[44:14] jobs issue, the economy, and the safety

[44:16] and security of the American people,

[44:17] that we will come together. The

[44:19] elections have been brutal, they're

[44:20] always brutal, but I do hope we come

[44:22] back to some degree of civility and

[44:24] address the issues that the American

[44:26] people want us to do. Now, gridlock is a

[44:28] possibility. We saw the filibuster of

[44:30] judge after judge after judge in the

[44:31] last two Congresses. Hopefully, we've

[44:34] broken through that and we can come

[44:35] together and address these issues that

[44:37] are important to the American people.

[44:38] >> Well, amen to that, at least to ending

[44:41] gridlock. Thanks so very much. Good to

[44:43] see you and everybody should get out and

[44:44] vote. Thank you a lot.

[44:45] >> you. That's the That's the message

[44:46] today. Get out and vote.

[44:47] >> Okay. Thanks, both Fritz.

[44:49] And on this fast and furious election

[44:51] day,

[44:52] uh joining me now on the phone is one of

[44:53] the key candidates, Democratic candidate

[44:55] for Senate, Claire McCaskill, joining me

[44:57] on the phone from Missouri. Uh welcome

[44:59] and what are you seeing as you go out

[45:01] today? What are the final issues as you

[45:04] go down to the wire? Is it the stem cell

[45:05] referendum there or is it the Iraq war?

[45:08] >> Uh it's really the Iraq war and a

[45:10] message of change. Um I think that

[45:12] because of the Michael J. Fox ad, I

[45:14] think particularly the national media is

[45:16] focused on stem cell. Here on the ground

[45:18] in Missouri, it really is about um more

[45:21] issues such as health care and and the

[45:24] Iraq war and the failure of this

[45:27] Congress to rein in spending and balance

[45:29] the budget. Um but the good news is that

[45:32] I had to stand in line a long time to

[45:33] vote in Missouri this morning. We're

[45:35] seeing, frankly, an incredible turnout,

[45:38] a larger than we even expected. It is a

[45:40] presidential year type turnout in

[45:42] Missouri, which really is a good sign

[45:45] for our campaign.

[45:46] >> Of course, it's very hard to judge

[45:47] because it would depend from one

[45:49] precinct to another and also one time of

[45:51] day to another. But when you go out and

[45:54] about today, what issues are you going

[45:56] to be mostly focused on as you try to

[45:58] campaign against the incumbent Jim

[45:59] Talent as you try to win what could be

[46:02] the decisive seat in this six vote six

[46:06] seat balance that Democrats needed to

[46:08] retake the Senate.

[46:09] >> I'm going to keep talking about the

[46:10] things we've talked about all through

[46:11] this campaign and that is

[46:13] a change in priorities

[46:15] real accountability. A strength of our

[46:17] government comes through the exercise of

[46:19] checks and balances and we have we

[46:22] haven't had that the checks and the

[46:23] balances have been taking a nap in

[46:24] Washington for the last six years and I

[46:27] think that Missourians see me as a very

[46:29] independent person. I ran against the

[46:31] governor of my own party two years ago

[46:34] which was unheard of and I think they

[46:36] know I will be an independent voice and

[46:38] that's what we're going to be talking

[46:39] about today change and strength through

[46:41] accountability.

[46:43] >> How much of a setback if any at all was

[46:45] the John Kerry botched joke from last

[46:48] week? Did that remind people of some of

[46:51] the stereotypes of Democrats at least of

[46:53] the way the Republicans cast it?

[46:55] >> You know, I don't think a botched joke

[46:57] could overcome a botched war.

[47:00] You know, yes it was a dumb thing to say

[47:02] and

[47:03] I think people took it for that. It

[47:04] really was not something that I even

[47:06] heard about on the campaign trail. I

[47:08] don't think it caused any problems for

[47:09] us on the ground at all.

[47:11] >> All right, well Claire McCaskill good

[47:13] luck to you and all the other candidates

[47:14] on both sides of the aisle as you

[47:17] campaign there in Missouri for the last

[47:18] day. Now from watching all of these

[47:20] countless campaign ads you would think

[47:22] today was actually a presidential

[47:24] election and that President Bush was on

[47:26] the ballot. Obviously he's not but his

[47:28] legacy certainly is. NBC News

[47:30] presidential historian Michael Beschloss

[47:32] joins me now from Washington. Welcome.

[47:34] >> Thank you Andrea.

[47:36] >> I know that this as you look back

[47:38] reminds you of previous elections. I was

[47:39] just reading something you wrote online

[47:41] on Newsweek today in 1966.

[47:44] What did the LBJ tapes tell us from that

[47:48] midterm year about what might be going

[47:50] on in George W. Bush's mind?

[47:52] >> Well, here you had a president Lyndon

[47:54] Johnson very worried about a wave

[47:56] against his party in the House and

[47:58] Senate. He lost 47 seats in the House,

[48:01] but he did not lose the House and

[48:02] Senate. I think probably you'd have to

[48:04] go back to a Harry Truman in '46 or Bill

[48:07] Clinton in '94 faced with the loss of

[48:10] Congress after a very long time of their

[48:13] party owning it.

[48:14] >> What kind of gridlock do you think we

[48:16] may end up with whether the Democrats

[48:18] win or the Republicans? Is this going to

[48:19] be such a closely divided Senate that

[48:22] it's going to be very hard to get things

[48:23] done?

[48:24] >> Uh very likely closely divided House and

[48:27] Senate almost whoever wins. Assuming the

[48:29] Republicans most likely win the House

[48:31] and if the Democrats perhaps lose the

[48:34] Senate narrowly as most people are now

[48:36] saying, but what you're going to see for

[48:38] the next 2 years is the Democrats

[48:39] essentially making the case the Bush

[48:41] presidency has been bad for America,

[48:44] wait till 2008 we can do better, but at

[48:47] the same time the Republicans might very

[48:48] well say in 2008 you've seen now the the

[48:52] Democrats have had some responsibility

[48:54] in the House should they win. Do you

[48:56] like what you've seen and if not perhaps

[48:58] there should be a Republican president.

[49:00] >> And how does this set the table for

[49:02] 2008?

[49:03] Assuming that the Democrats if they

[49:06] remain ahead and if these polls are

[49:07] correct, let's say the Democrats take

[49:10] the House. Does that give them some

[49:11] responsibility for getting things done

[49:14] and for fixing what people are concerned

[49:16] about Iraq for instance and does that in

[49:18] any way influence how candidates can run

[49:20] and which kinds of candidates can be

[49:22] more successful in running in those

[49:24] primaries?

[49:24] >> By all means Andrea and you're going to

[49:26] see one of two things. At one extreme

[49:29] you'll see the Democrats if they have

[49:31] the House overreaching doing things that

[49:34] go way beyond the mandate that voters

[49:36] thought they were giving them this year

[49:38] or at the other end Democrats making the

[49:41] case against the Republican Party having

[49:43] been in power all these years in both

[49:45] the White House and the Congress making

[49:47] it easier for a Democratic candidate.

[49:50] It's by no means clear today which is

[49:52] going to be. As you remember between 19

[49:55] 95 and 1996, the Republicans did

[49:58] overreach, made it much easier for Bill

[50:00] Clinton to get reelected.

[50:02] >> Michael, the president has of course

[50:04] enjoyed a very friendly Congress up

[50:05] until now. Either way, tonight's results

[50:09] could really change that. Do you see any

[50:11] sign that he might be willing to be more

[50:13] accommodative? Could he work, let's say,

[50:15] with a Speaker Pelosi to get things done

[50:17] or is this just going to be a complete

[50:19] push-pull from both ends of Pennsylvania

[50:21] Avenue?

[50:22] >> He will probably be compelled to be. And

[50:24] look for that in his history, there's

[50:26] not much of it in the presidency with

[50:27] the exception of the months immediately

[50:29] after 9/11 when the whole nation pulled

[50:32] together. But you really have to go to

[50:34] Bush's time as governor of Texas when he

[50:36] had this famous relationship with Bob

[50:38] Bullock, his Democratic Lieutenant

[50:40] Governor. They did get a lot of things

[50:42] done. When George W. Bush was running in

[50:44] 2000, the Bullock-Bush relationship was

[50:47] something he cited in saying, "I'm a

[50:49] uniter and not a divider."

[50:52] >> NBC presidential historian Michael

[50:54] Beschloss, well, thanks so much and

[50:56] we'll be following you tonight and all

[50:58] of your wisdom tonight and tomorrow.

[51:00] >> you. Tonight we'll know. Thanks, Andrea.

[51:02] >> Thanks a lot. And more people could

[51:04] [music] end up voting today than in any

[51:05] midterm election ever. Can the GOP count

[51:08] on its massive get-out-the-vote machine

[51:10] to push back a Democratic tsunami

[51:12] [music] at the polls? We'll have two of

[51:14] the best, or at least one of the best,

[51:16] political journalists in the business

[51:17] [music] weighing in.

[51:19] Coming up next. And for 24/7 coverage on

[51:22] the internet, log [music] on to

[51:23] politics.msnbc.com

[51:25] from interactive maps to pre-analysis of

[51:28] what today's results will mean for the

[51:29] country. [music] And we'll be right back

[51:31] after this.

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[54:39] >> And this new video just in, two

[54:41] Republicans fighting for every last vote

[54:43] in the battleground states. On the left,

[54:45] you see New Jersey Senate candidate

[54:46] [music] Tom Kean Jr. casting his ballot.

[54:49] He's running against incumbent Bob

[54:51] Menendez. [music]

[54:52] And on the right, Republican incumbent

[54:53] Senator George Allen casting his vote in

[54:56] Virginia, one of the most tightly

[54:57] [music] fought races.

[54:59] He's in a neck-and-neck race with

[55:00] Democrat Jim Webb.

[55:02] Now, some political analysts say that it

[55:04] could be an early night for election

[55:05] watchers. Take a look. Since many of the

[55:08] key congressional races are in the

[55:09] Eastern and Central time zones, a good

[55:12] idea of the trend will be known early in

[55:14] the evening, or it could be, if

[55:15] everything goes smoothly with those new

[55:17] machines. The closely watched races:

[55:19] Rhode Island, New Jersey, Pennsylvania,

[55:22] Maryland, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and

[55:25] Tennessee. With me now, John Harwood,

[55:27] CNBC's chief Washington correspondent.

[55:30] We've heard accusations from Democrats,

[55:31] at least, about Republicans barraging

[55:33] voters with those automated robo calls.

[55:36] Uh one top Democrat, Rahm Emanuel, the

[55:38] head of the campaign committee is

[55:39] calling it a dirty trick. They're

[55:40] threatening lawsuits after the election

[55:42] is over. Is this the normal election day

[55:45] politicking, or do Democrats really have

[55:47] some cause for complaint?

[55:49] >> It's really hard to tell when you get

[55:50] these anecdotal reports how widespread

[55:52] these things are. Democrats say we're

[55:54] talking about repeat calls, some in the

[55:56] middle of the night, designed to turn

[55:58] people off because they start saying

[56:01] this is information about candidate X,

[56:03] but you don't know until the end that

[56:05] the information is coming from the other

[56:06] side of the race. So, you're irritated

[56:09] if you get a call or a repeat call from

[56:11] candidate X. The Republicans say this is

[56:14] standard robo calling that both sides

[56:17] do, and that if repeat calls were made,

[56:20] it's a computer glitch, that sort of

[56:21] thing, that they don't do it late at

[56:23] night, and they don't call repeatedly.

[56:25] You know, we'll find out afterwards, but

[56:27] we certainly saw in this New Hampshire

[56:29] phone jamming case a couple of years ago

[56:31] that sometimes parties cross the line

[56:33] and do things that are later judged to

[56:36] be illegal, and certainly improper and

[56:39] unethical, and that's certainly what

[56:40] happened in New Hampshire, and you know,

[56:42] somebody went to jail over it.

[56:43] >> Don, quickly, what are you going to be

[56:44] looking at? Are you looking at Charlie

[56:46] Bass in New Hampshire and the Lincoln

[56:47] Chafee race in Rhode Island? How

[56:50] moderate Republicans do in the

[56:52] Northeast, Kentucky, Indiana,

[56:54] Pennsylvania? When will you begin to get

[56:56] a sense of what's going on?

[56:57] >> I really think, Andrea, we've got to

[56:59] look at Indiana and Kentucky. We're

[57:00] talking about five Republican seats

[57:02] there in red states where the polls

[57:05] close at 6:00, and we're going to get a

[57:07] very, very good signal early. If Anne

[57:10] Northup goes down in Kentucky, if Jeff

[57:13] Davis goes down, or and all three or two

[57:16] out of the three of the endangered

[57:17] Indiana Republicans go down, it's going

[57:20] to be a very long night for Republicans.

[57:22] On the other hand, if out of those five

[57:24] seats Republicans hold two of them, that

[57:26] means maybe they hold their losses to 20

[57:29] or less. Possibly outside shot of

[57:32] holding the house, although almost every

[57:34] strategist I talked to in both parties

[57:35] expects that they're going to beat that

[57:37] magic number of 15.

[57:38] >> Okay, and thanks to you for tracking all

[57:40] this for us, and we'll be checking with

[57:42] you throughout the day.

[57:43] >> You bet.

[57:43] >> Nora O'Donnell picks up our coverage

[57:45] next, Decision 2006, [music] Countdown

[57:47] to the finish. Among her guests, Mary

[57:49] Matalin, Senator Chuck Schumer, the head

[57:51] of the Democratic Campaign Committee,

[57:53] [music] RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman, and a

[57:56] host of reporters covering all of the

[57:57] hot races across the country. Plus, find

[58:00] out how the vote is going in Iraq as US

[58:03] [music] troops cast their ballots. Keep

[58:05] it right here. You're watching MSNBC.

[58:14] >> No one's going to cover Election Day

[58:16] like Chris Matthews. The tight races to

[58:18] the second results, Election Day

[58:20] coverage all day today on MSNBC.

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