PBS NewsHour - 1996-02-19
Channel: malgent
Transcript
Language: English (original, YouTube automatic captions)
[0:05] Good evening, I'm Jim Lara. On the
[0:07] NewsHour this President's Day, the New
[0:10] Hampshire primary. Margaret Warner
[0:12] reports on the undecideds and interviews
[0:14] Senator Dole. Elizabeth Farnsworth
[0:17] debriefs Republican pollster Linda Dval.
[0:20] Political reporters David Broer,
[0:22] Elizabeth Arnold, and Ronald Brownstein
[0:24] sum up the fight over public lands in
[0:27] the West. Rod Minet has an update and
[0:30] our Monday night essay, Richard
[0:32] Rodriguez considers women on death row.
[0:34] It all follows our summary of the news
[0:36] this holiday Monday. Major funding for
[0:39] the NewsHour with Jim Lera has been
[0:41] provided by the Archer Daniels Midland
[0:43] Company ADM Supermarket to the World
[0:48] and by New York Life. Yet another
[0:51] example of New York Life's wise
[0:53] investment philosophy
[0:57] and by the Corporation for Public
[0:59] Broadcasting and by the annual financial
[1:01] support from viewers like you. This was
[1:04] the last campaign day before tomorrow's
[1:07] New Hampshire primary. The Republican
[1:09] candidates were all out for a final go
[1:12] of speaking and persuading, starting the
[1:14] day with pancake flipping contests and
[1:17] coffee shop visits. The latest poll
[1:20] shows Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole
[1:22] and Pat Buchanan neck andneck for first
[1:24] place with Lamar Alexander close behind.
[1:27] Buchanan recorded a final radio spot to
[1:30] offset what he said were negative
[1:31] attacks by Dole. We're also putting on
[1:34] our own phone banks. We're calling all
[1:36] our people and saying stand by Pat and
[1:38] don't believe the smears and the last
[1:40] minute accusations and the falsehoods
[1:42] and the nonsense they're putting out.
[1:44] Just stand by your man. We fought a
[1:46] good, clean campaign. And I regret to
[1:48] say that Bob Dole has not. His campaign
[1:51] in the last several days has been not
[1:53] about issues or ideas. It's been about
[1:55] attacking me and getting surrogates to
[1:57] smear me. I think it's fair enough to
[1:59] point out that Pat Buchanan and what he
[2:02] said about women, what he said about
[2:04] nuclear weapons to South Korea. It's he
[2:07] said it. I didn't say it. I mean, that's
[2:08] not negative. It's my voting record.
[2:10] They list my voting record. That's not
[2:12] negative. It's a fact. Bob Dole can't
[2:14] run from it. But uh hopefully
[2:18] tomorrow will be the end of that cycle.
[2:20] We'll move on to something else.
[2:21] >> We'll have more of that interview with
[2:23] Senator Dole and much more on the New
[2:25] Hampshire primary right after the news
[2:27] summary. On Bosnia today, a Bosnian Serb
[2:30] general refused to attend a follow-up
[2:32] meeting to last weekend's peace summit
[2:34] in Rome. The snub follows a two-day
[2:37] meeting at which all three sides,
[2:39] Bosnians, Croats, and Serbs agreed to
[2:41] resume contacts with each other and with
[2:44] NATO forces. Today's session with
[2:46] military leaders, was aboard an American
[2:48] aircraft carrier in the Adriatic Sea. US
[2:51] Admiral Leighton Smith, commander of the
[2:53] NATO troops in Bosnia, said the peace in
[2:56] Bosnia is fragile.
[2:59] >> There's a lot of firepower.
[3:02] There's a lot of tension,
[3:04] a lot of uncertainty,
[3:06] and an enormous amount of important
[3:10] things that are going on.
[3:13] To disassociate
[3:16] one of the major participants in the
[3:18] implementation process from these
[3:20] important talks
[3:23] is just not very smart.
[3:25] >> In Britain today, police said they were
[3:27] holding two persons on anti-terrorism
[3:30] charges. There was no official
[3:32] confirmation of a tie-in with last
[3:34] night's bombing of a London bus. One
[3:36] person died, nine others were injured in
[3:38] that blast. The IRA has claimed
[3:40] responsibility for it. We have more in
[3:42] this report from John Draper of
[3:44] Independent Television News.
[3:48] The mangled remains of the double-decker
[3:49] are still lying in the middle of what's
[3:51] normally a busy London thorough affair.
[3:53] The ferocity of the homemade bomb, which
[3:55] ripped through the vehicle, was so great
[3:57] that the driver was thrown right out of
[3:59] his cab.
[4:00] The roof was ripped right off by the
[4:02] force of the blast. Police believe it
[4:04] was detonated by accident and that the
[4:06] bomber may have been on board at the
[4:08] time. Forensic scientists spent the day
[4:10] literally sifting through the debris.
[4:13] That operation will continue until
[4:15] tomorrow.
[4:17] The bomb went off last night as people
[4:19] were leaving clubs and restaurants in
[4:21] the Coven Garden area. Today, police are
[4:24] examining security pictures from
[4:25] buildings on the route. Two cameras on
[4:28] the bus may provide fragments of tape,
[4:30] but police are certain the bomb exploded
[4:32] prematurely.
[4:33] >> That detonation was
[4:36] at that point.
[4:39] The bus was not the intended target, we
[4:43] believe.
[4:44] >> Tonight, the IRA were reported to have
[4:45] issued a new threat to extend the
[4:47] bombing to other British cities. Back in
[4:50] this country, rail service resumed today
[4:52] on tracks outside Washington DC where
[4:55] two trains crashed Friday night.
[4:57] Investigators said they found no
[4:59] mechanical or signaling problems that
[5:01] might have led to the collision. 11
[5:03] people were killed. Scores were injured
[5:05] in the wreck. A Maryland commuter train
[5:08] was going twice the speed it should have
[5:09] been when it crashed into an Amtrak
[5:12] passenger train. And that's it for the
[5:14] news summary tonight. Now it's on to the
[5:16] New Hampshire primary. Western land use
[5:20] and our Monday night essay.
[5:32] The New Hampshire primary is our lead
[5:34] story tonight. Margaret Warner begins
[5:35] our coverage with a report and with an
[5:38] interview of Senator Dole.
[5:41] Snow gave way to sunshine in New
[5:44] Hampshire Sunday. On this last weekend
[5:46] before the presidential primary here,
[5:49] but on this holiday weekend, many voters
[5:52] were still wrestling with their choice.
[5:54] Strategists for all the candidates
[5:56] acknowledged that the outcome of
[5:58] Tuesday's primary would be determined by
[6:00] the unusually high number of voters who
[6:02] remained uncommitted in the final days.
[6:07] >> Voters like Laura Monica of Bow. She's
[6:10] the mother of seven-year-old twins and
[6:12] the owner of a public relations firm
[6:14] with her husband, Bill.
[6:15] >> Nice though, huh? Beautiful.
[6:17] >> Polls show the undecided Republican and
[6:19] independent voters tend to be much like
[6:22] Laura Monica, college educated, between
[6:25] 25 and 50, employed but financially
[6:29] pressed. A high percentage of them are
[6:31] women.
[6:32] >> I think this is a fairly lackluster
[6:35] group. They don't they're not energizing
[6:37] people. They haven't created a vision.
[6:39] There's no charisma coming through on
[6:42] any of these candidates. And whether or
[6:44] not they'll have a good shot against
[6:45] Clinton in the general election is a
[6:48] real question mark.
[6:49] >> So, you're disappointed in the campaign
[6:50] so far.
[6:51] >> Yeah, I think it's it's been very
[6:53] disappointing. Been a lot of negative
[6:54] campaigning up here and people in New
[6:57] Hampshire really take a good hard look
[6:59] at these candidates and they want to
[7:01] hear the issues and they want to hear
[7:03] what they're going to do. And so far
[7:05] really that we've haven't heard that.
[7:07] >> Laura Monica has gone to hear most of
[7:09] the contenders at local civic clubs. She
[7:12] even helped organize a candidates's
[7:14] pancake breakfast in Manchester. But she
[7:17] says she hasn't heard enough from the
[7:18] Republican field about the issue that
[7:21] concerns her most.
[7:22] >> I think the the issue that's probably
[7:24] the most important to me is the economy.
[7:27] What's going on not only in this state
[7:30] but in the region and in the country.
[7:32] But I mean, when you go to Rotary Club
[7:33] and don't they then talk about what
[7:35] they're going to do?
[7:36] >> They do a bit, but they also will and
[7:39] they certainly do, but they'll also
[7:40] spend a lot of time telling you what the
[7:42] other candidates have not done or where
[7:46] they have failed or where what when they
[7:47] have raised taxes in the past or
[7:49] whatever it is that they want to bring
[7:50] up.
[7:51] >> Last fall, she hoped that Colin Powell
[7:53] would run. Well, really because it was
[7:55] someone who could possibly bring a new
[7:58] perspective, someone with some new
[8:01] ideas, certainly someone with a great
[8:03] deal of integrity and and I think that
[8:06] that's a very important value for any
[8:09] candidate to have and certainly for our
[8:11] president to have. Then she seriously
[8:13] considered Steve Forbes. As a small
[8:15] businesswoman, she liked Forb's ideas
[8:17] for simplifying the tax code, but she
[8:20] came to see him as a oneisssue
[8:21] candidate. So she kept looking. Laura
[8:24] Monica isn't surprised to learn that a
[8:26] high percentage of late undecided voters
[8:29] are Republican and independent women. I
[8:31] think for many women, this field of
[8:33] candidates is a disappointment.
[8:36] There for any women who might be
[8:38] pro-choice, there is no candidate that's
[8:41] a pro-choice candidate in this field.
[8:43] And even those that maybe are are saying
[8:45] that they aren't. Also disappointed, in
[8:48] fact bitterly disappointed, are Bud and
[8:50] Joanne Grady, a World War II veteran.
[8:53] Bud Grady has been downsized out of a
[8:55] number of jobs over the years. He and
[8:58] his wife had both responded to Pat
[9:00] Buchanan's economic message. But then
[9:03] allegations surfaced that Buchanan's
[9:05] campaign co-chairman, gun owners of
[9:07] America head Larry Pratt, had associated
[9:10] with white supremacist and right-wing
[9:12] militia groups.
[9:13] >> I can't help but feel that Mr. Canon
[9:16] should have had knowledge of this or
[9:18] should have known about it and if he did
[9:21] why didn't he do something about it and
[9:24] this is what's disturbing me that he he
[9:26] should have if he didn't
[9:27] >> it came as a surprise to me because I
[9:29] didn't think Pat Buchanan would be
[9:31] associated with anybody at this terrible
[9:34] you know that even a way back that he
[9:36] had done this I mean he seemed to be
[9:38] such a straightforward man and then to
[9:40] have this come out I mean was was scary
[9:44] >> the Brady's are leaning toward Dole now.
[9:47] But like most uncommitted voters who are
[9:49] on the verge of deciding, they have
[9:51] doubts about even the candidates they
[9:54] like.
[9:55] >> The positive side of Dole, as I
[9:56] explained to you before, that he's a
[9:58] gentleman who's experienced in the
[10:00] Senate and his being a veteran. Those
[10:03] are the positives. The negative, I think
[10:06] maybe he's a little bit old. This is
[10:08] what has been bothering me along the way
[10:11] watching him.
[10:12] >> He can handle Washington. I mean, he
[10:14] could handle a Congress. I mean, I feel
[10:16] very comfortable with him. Uh, if that
[10:19] was going to be my choice. Negative side
[10:21] on
[10:23] at times. He appears to be uh a little
[10:26] bit arrogant.
[10:26] >> On this last weekend, Beth Fiser, who
[10:29] runs a bed and breakfast in Durham with
[10:31] her husband, Bob, was also still trying
[10:33] to decide.
[10:34] >> I hear a lot of the same um promises. I
[10:38] hear a lot of campaign rhetoric. I hear
[10:40] a um I think it's sometimes the
[10:43] candidates are are speaking to us as if
[10:46] we um are not intelligent. Um and it
[10:51] comes off on sound bites. It comes off
[10:54] as a um situation that they they aren't
[10:58] thinking that that we're thinking that
[10:59] we're recognizing um the needs that this
[11:03] country has and they're playing to
[11:05] whatever audience they feel that they
[11:07] need to play to. You were a major Dole
[11:09] supporter in ' 88.
[11:10] >> I was. I was. I liked him. Um I liked
[11:13] his brashness. I liked his sense of
[11:15] humor. Um I really felt at that
[11:17] particular point in time Bob Dole was
[11:19] his own man. But I'm not so sure that um
[11:23] he's the right tonic for the country at
[11:25] this particular point in time.
[11:26] >> Well, what's missing in this field? None
[11:29] of the candidates really fill me with a
[11:31] um
[11:33] an excitement um because I don't think
[11:36] they're particularly excited about
[11:41] running.
[11:42] >> Yet despite their lack of enthusiasm,
[11:45] all these undecided voters still plan to
[11:48] go to the polls.
[11:49] >> I would never consider not voting. I
[11:52] think every person in certainly in this
[11:54] state which is an important one for the
[11:56] nation should do it's their
[11:58] responsibility to take a look at these
[11:59] candidates and make a decision
[12:01] >> and when will they decide whom to vote
[12:03] for
[12:03] >> I think I'll make up my mind prior 2
[12:06] minutes prior to walking to that voting
[12:07] booth
[12:09] >> and you Joan
[12:10] >> I'll be the same way.
[12:11] >> It's that lastm minute decision-making
[12:13] that's brought about so many surprises
[12:16] on New Hampshire primary night.
[12:20] Now we speak with Senator and candidate
[12:22] Robert Dole. Welcome, Senator.
[12:23] >> Thank you very much.
[12:24] >> Here we are 24 hours, less than 24 hours
[12:27] before the polls open. How do you see
[12:28] the dynamic of the race now between you
[12:30] and the two men who seem to be
[12:32] challenging you most aggressively?
[12:34] >> I know it's hard, it's hard for the
[12:35] candidate. I mean, I think it feels
[12:36] good. Uh I was up here in 88 when I
[12:39] thought it felt good. Polls said it
[12:41] looked good. Uh it may be a little
[12:43] tighter this time, but I don't know. I
[12:45] feel good about it. I'm relaxed about
[12:46] it. uh tomorrow it's up to the voters
[12:49] and we'll see what happens.
[12:51] >> Well, now Pat Buchanan's going around
[12:52] the state today complaining bitterly
[12:54] about your negative ads. And he quoted
[12:57] an aid of yours telling Time magazine,
[12:59] "We're going to win it ugly." Is that
[13:01] what this has come to?
[13:02] >> I hope not. I don't know who the aid
[13:04] was. You know, a lot of fictitious aids
[13:05] around, but uh you know, I think we've
[13:08] had some pretty heavy negative
[13:10] campaigning. I think I'm the $10 million
[13:12] man. I've had about that much of it. But
[13:15] uh uh my view is that uh you know
[13:19] if we win this race, if we win New
[13:22] Hampshire, we're going to go on to North
[13:23] and South Dakota, Arizona, South
[13:25] Carolina. And we've tried to keep
[13:28] positive message, but I think it's fair
[13:29] enough to point out that Pat Buchanan
[13:32] what he said about women, what he said
[13:34] about nuclear weapons to South Korea.
[13:37] It's he said it. I didn't say it. I
[13:38] mean, that's not negative. It's my
[13:40] voting record. They list my voting
[13:42] record. That's not negative. It's a
[13:43] fact. Bob Dole can't run from it. But uh
[13:47] hopefully
[13:48] tomorrow will be the end of that cycle
[13:50] and we'll move on to something else.
[13:52] >> He also says your campaign is calling
[13:54] voters ostensibly to poll them but
[13:57] spreading negative information about
[13:58] him. Is that true?
[13:59] >> I I no I you know that that we had the
[14:01] same thing last week and I I remember
[14:03] last in ' 88 when we were up here uh
[14:06] people were calling senior citizens at 2
[14:09] a.m. saying be sure to go out and vote
[14:10] for Bob Dole. Now, we thought that was a
[14:13] Bush campaign. They said it wasn't the
[14:14] Bush campaign, but there a lot of, you
[14:16] know, a lot of free spirits around here,
[14:18] too. And maybe they're strong
[14:20] supporters, maybe they're not, but we
[14:21] don't have any operation to do that. So,
[14:24] >> do you think the negative campaign, and
[14:26] as you said, it's been on all sides. Do
[14:27] you think that's playing into President
[14:29] Clinton's hands?
[14:30] >> I think temporarily, but once uh, you
[14:33] know, I think for it probably has some
[14:35] impact on all Republicans.
[14:37] Uh but my view is that once we have a
[14:39] nominee, we get back uh start talking as
[14:42] we should. It's going to be a race
[14:44] between Bob Dole and Bill Clinton. And
[14:46] we've been trying to make that race
[14:48] start right now. We've been talking more
[14:50] about Clinton. I haven't said anything
[14:51] about Buchanan, Alexander, Dick Luger,
[14:53] anybody. I've been talking about how do
[14:55] we defeat Bill Clinton. That's the big
[14:58] one.
[14:58] >> We've talked to a lot of just ordinary
[15:00] voters and even those who are have
[15:02] already decided seem very unenthusiastic
[15:05] about the whole field. Why do you think
[15:06] that is?
[15:07] >> I remember when Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy,
[15:10] and Humphrey, and all the great
[15:11] Democratic field, I thought people were
[15:13] not enthusiastic. It's always I want
[15:16] something more different. Uh again, it's
[15:18] going to be once once we have a nominee,
[15:20] it's pretty hard with nine of us out
[15:21] there. Maybe they don't like any of us.
[15:23] Maybe they maybe they haven't focused on
[15:24] any of us. But my view is we find our
[15:28] people enthusiastic. We've got uh I
[15:30] talked we had a little meeting this
[15:31] afternoon of our staff. uh one uh
[15:35] particular staff member who's who's very
[15:36] conservative, won't say pessimistic, is
[15:39] all upbe telling me how good it looks
[15:41] all across the state. So, we're ready to
[15:43] go.
[15:45] >> You were the front runner for months and
[15:47] now still am.
[15:48] >> Yeah.
[15:49] >> And now, at least some polls suggest you
[15:51] are fighting for your political life. Is
[15:52] this what you expected?
[15:54] >> I didn't expect to get about $10 million
[15:56] in negative ads from Steve Forbes aimed
[15:59] right at me. I mean, almost got me in
[16:02] Iowa. I mean it was close. Uh well we
[16:05] had an 80% fable ber rating. It dropped
[16:07] to 50 80 to 13 just uh and then he
[16:11] started his barrage October 23rd at last
[16:14] till January 12th before we ran one ad.
[16:17] We put up with it for almost well
[16:19] November December about 3 months.
[16:23] >> Ordinary voters again that we've talked
[16:25] to even those planning to vote for you
[16:26] say they aren't really sure what your
[16:28] vision is. is if you had to sum up what
[16:30] your essential message is, what is it?
[16:32] >> My essential message is a better
[16:34] America, brighter future, uh more power
[16:37] back to the states and back to the
[16:38] people, putting more money back in the
[16:41] hands of taxpayers. I think it's fairly
[16:43] clear uh message uh vision. I think it's
[16:47] a vision. We're talking about going in
[16:48] the next century, talking about a lot of
[16:50] things going to happen. Talk about moral
[16:52] leadership, family values, all these
[16:54] things. In fact, I'd say Bob Dole's
[16:57] campaign as opposed to some of the
[16:58] others. We're not playing on the fears
[17:00] of the American people. We're trying to
[17:01] build upon the hopes and aspirations of
[17:03] the American people.
[17:04] >> All right, let's talk about a couple of
[17:05] the other candidates. Pat Buchanan, what
[17:07] do you think is this real source of his
[17:09] appeal?
[17:10] >> I think there's a certain segment of the
[17:12] American I think he touches a court on
[17:14] trade and I don't disagree totally with
[17:16] him on trade. I don't think we build a
[17:18] wall around America. That doesn't mean
[17:19] we shouldn't be more aggressive. the
[17:21] president of the United States has a lot
[17:22] of weapons at his disposal he can use to
[17:24] make certain that we have a level
[17:26] playing field. But you can't lock uh you
[17:29] know we we visit a place cableron this
[17:31] morning in Rochester, New Hampshire. 30%
[17:35] of their business is international. It's
[17:37] a big big company. Started out with two
[17:38] men uh Bob Lavine and Craig Benson in
[17:41] their garage 13 years ago and now they
[17:44] do about $300 million a year in
[17:46] international trade. Uh that's very
[17:48] important. And I think Pat's totally
[17:49] wrong on his stand on what I I think a
[17:52] very protectionist stand
[17:54] >> though he is he he does seem to be
[17:56] tapping into this middle class anxiety.
[17:58] >> Certainly does.
[17:59] >> Do you think that whether he wins or
[18:00] loses that your party has to respond to
[18:03] that more directly in some way?
[18:04] >> I think there's a message there. I think
[18:06] it's it's I supported GAD. I supported
[18:08] NAFTA. I do the same. But I didn't I
[18:11] think the president can be more
[18:12] aggressive in enforcing workers rights
[18:14] when it comes to loss of jobs, fair
[18:16] competition. Uh those are matters the
[18:19] administration, any administration
[18:21] should pursue.
[18:22] >> And what do you think of the way Pat
[18:23] Buchanan handled the controversy
[18:25] involving Larry Pratt, who was the
[18:27] campaign co-chairman who's been accused
[18:29] of associating with white supremacists?
[18:32] >> Well, I've known of Larry Pratt for some
[18:34] time. I remember I've shown up at I
[18:35] remember going to Virginia one night for
[18:37] a candidate and they had pickets out
[18:39] there, I think, from Larry Pratt's
[18:40] group. Bob Dole was a traitor and you
[18:43] know, not very friendly signs. uh and
[18:46] he's been on my case for years. So I I
[18:48] don't know what happened. I don't know
[18:49] whether he's responsible or not, but uh
[18:52] certainly if he has uh those tendencies,
[18:54] he shouldn't be in anybody's campaign as
[18:56] far as I'm concerned. But Pat has to
[18:58] make that choice.
[18:59] >> All right, let's talk a bit about Lamar
[19:01] Alexander.
[19:03] If I were New Hampshire voter and I had
[19:05] narrowed down my choice to the two of
[19:06] you, and a lot of voters seem to have
[19:08] done that, why should I choose you over
[19:10] Alexander? experience, judgment.
[19:14] Uh I I think being prepared for this
[19:17] job. I mean, for the first several
[19:19] months, he said he had no experience. He
[19:20] never been to Washington. Now he's
[19:22] saying he has experience. Uh you can't
[19:25] have it both ways. But again, I think
[19:27] it's my my credibility.
[19:30] Uh my view is that I' I've been a leader
[19:32] for 11 years in the Senate. I've been
[19:33] elected and reelected six times by my
[19:36] peers in the Senate. I think I could
[19:38] probably win a secret battle on the
[19:39] Democratic side because I I've got a
[19:42] reputation for honesty and integrity and
[19:44] listening to people which is very
[19:45] important. So I think if people are
[19:47] looking for somebody who can get the job
[19:49] done, who can work with the Congress, uh
[19:52] I think it's Bob Dole.
[19:54] >> And what do you think is the source of
[19:55] Alexander's appeal?
[19:57] >> Uh I don't know. It's not the plaid
[19:59] shirt, but it maybe it's a plaid
[20:00] philosophy. Nobody knows quite certain
[20:03] where he is, but I think he's uh we'll
[20:06] see what happens tomorrow. Obviously,
[20:08] he's been campaigning full-time. He's
[20:11] been able to do that because this has
[20:13] been his job for the past two years,
[20:14] even though he was retained at a very
[20:16] handsome salary by a big Washington law
[20:19] firm. Uh I had a full-time job, try to
[20:23] keep my full-time job. But we feel good
[20:25] about it. We're excited about the
[20:27] campaign. We wish everybody well, but we
[20:30] hope to win.
[20:31] >> Alexander's critique of you, as you
[20:33] know, is that you've served well and
[20:34] honorably always,
[20:36] >> but it's time for you to step aside.
[20:38] >> Yeah. I mean, I I've listened to that
[20:39] for the past 12 months that Bob Dole is
[20:42] a great legislator, but I say with
[20:44] respect, we're going into the next
[20:45] century. Well, my view is uh we're ready
[20:48] for the next century. The Dole
[20:50] administration is ready with ideas, with
[20:52] a vision. Uh I feel I'm a very positive
[20:55] person. And I've always been very
[20:57] positive about America. I've sacrificed
[20:59] for my country. I've worked for my
[21:01] country. I know what America is all
[21:03] about. We grew up living in a basement
[21:05] apartment. My dad wore his overhauls to
[21:07] work every day for 42 years. I think
[21:09] I've got a better feel for America than
[21:11] say Lamar Alexander or Pat Buchanan.
[21:14] >> Do you think he's trying to say you're
[21:15] too old to be president?
[21:16] >> Obviously, he's been trying to say that.
[21:18] But I have my health records out there
[21:20] and I'm still waiting for his.
[21:22] >> I'm in good health. My cholesterol is
[21:24] better than President Clinton. my blood
[21:25] pressure is better, but I've promised
[21:27] not to make health an issue in the
[21:29] campaign.
[21:30] >> Uh, in the past week, there have been a
[21:32] number of news stories uh questioning
[21:34] Lamar Alexander's private financial
[21:36] dealings. Do you think there's anything
[21:38] questionable there?
[21:39] >> I don't know. I mean, it seems to me,
[21:41] uh, that's something he has to respond
[21:42] to. Uh, and I think it's going to be if
[21:47] if you know, if he stays in this race,
[21:48] there going to be more and more
[21:49] questions. Just have been more and more
[21:51] questions about the Clinton's finances.
[21:53] They're going to look at all of our
[21:54] finances. We put our tax returns out
[21:56] there since 1966, I believe. Uh so
[22:00] people can take a look at it. They can
[22:02] make judgments, but I think when you
[22:04] invest very little money and make a lot
[22:06] of money, 20,000 to make $2 million,
[22:09] somebody's going to say, "We wish I
[22:11] could have get gotten in on that deal."
[22:13] There does seem to also be some concern
[22:15] among other people in your party that
[22:17] this campaign is exposing very deep
[22:20] fissures in the party, particularly
[22:21] between economic conservatives and
[22:23] populists, but also on the social
[22:25] cultural side. How worried are you about
[22:27] that?
[22:28] >> I think that's another strength I have
[22:30] is reaching out to people, bringing
[22:31] people together. Bill Graham came up
[22:33] here yesterday and said that, you know,
[22:36] he was going to support Bob Dole because
[22:38] Bob Dole could bring the party together.
[22:40] I think 24 governors have said that in
[22:43] effect 24 out of 31 Republican
[22:44] governors, they want to build this
[22:46] party. I'm not trying to divide the
[22:48] party over one issue, two issues. We
[22:50] want to multiply in our party and I
[22:52] think somebody with experience can get
[22:54] that job done.
[22:55] >> So you're saying you think if you win
[22:56] the nomination, you can bring most of
[22:58] the Buchanan people back into the fold.
[22:59] >> I can bring most back in the fold. I've
[23:01] got a good strong mainstream
[23:03] conservative record, but I'm not a
[23:05] polarizer. If they're looking for a
[23:06] polarizer, I can't do it. But I can also
[23:08] keep other people in the fold. And if
[23:11] we're going to beat Bill Clinton in
[23:12] November, uh that's our number one job.
[23:15] >> If you win here tomorrow, is your
[23:16] nomination pretty much assured?
[23:18] >> I don't know. Some people say that. Uh
[23:20] but we're going to head the next day for
[23:22] North and South Dakota on to Colorado,
[23:24] Oregon, Arizona.
[23:26] It's uh going to be full-time work all
[23:28] through March.
[23:30] >> And if you come in second or third, what
[23:32] then?
[23:32] >> We're going to head for North Dakota,
[23:33] South Dakota. It's going to be full-time
[23:36] work all through March. I mean I I my
[23:38] view is that uh we have the organization
[23:40] in the other states. We have money in
[23:42] the bank. We've got a good campaign
[23:45] organization. They've done an excellent
[23:46] job and but you know we we're not
[23:49] overconfident but we feel we feel good.
[23:52] >> Well thank you Senator. Thanks very
[23:53] much.
[23:55] >> Now some of the latest polling out of
[23:57] New Hampshire. Elizabeth Farnsworth has
[23:59] that. This past weekend, Republican
[24:02] pollster Linda Dval surveyed likely
[24:04] Republican primary voters and found Bob
[24:06] Dole winning 26% of the vote, Pat
[24:09] Buchanan 20%. Lamar Alexander 14% and
[24:12] Steve Forbes 10%. 17% of those pled were
[24:16] still undecided just 24 hours before
[24:19] voting begins. Linda Dval is president
[24:21] of American Viewpoint and she was
[24:23] formerly with the Graham campaign. She
[24:25] joins us now with her analysis of recent
[24:27] polls. Welcome. Who are the 17%
[24:30] undecideds?
[24:31] >> Well, the undecideds at this point tend
[24:33] to be primarily female. About 60% of
[24:35] them are women. About a third of them
[24:37] are women over 60 years of age. And they
[24:39] also tend to classify themselves as
[24:41] moderates or liberals. So, what you're
[24:43] finding here is that the campaigns as
[24:45] they go to the final stretch, and it's
[24:46] interesting that our poll corresponds
[24:48] with the 1992 exit polling data, which
[24:50] show that 17% actually made up their
[24:52] minds on election day. So, this is a
[24:54] very volatile election. So, the person
[24:56] in Margaret's uh piece was not unusual
[24:58] saying that he might decide or she might
[25:00] decide on that.
[25:00] >> I think Margaret interviewed people that
[25:02] we pulled just last night. That's
[25:03] correct. And I think they're going to be
[25:05] looking for who is it that they think
[25:06] would stand the best job at defeating
[25:08] Bill Clinton, who has the experience and
[25:09] leadership necessary to be president.
[25:11] And the other thing is sometimes if you
[25:13] go into a situation like this, they tend
[25:15] to vote for the person they like the
[25:16] best. Lamari Alexander was able to get a
[25:18] lot of these late decision makers in
[25:19] Iowa. he has the best favorable
[25:21] unfavorable rating with these undecided
[25:23] voters, particularly with these women
[25:24] down the closing stretch.
[25:26] >> So, at this point, many of those
[25:28] undecideds may go with Lamar Alexander.
[25:30] >> Well, right now, I think they're split
[25:31] pretty much between Lamar Alexander um
[25:34] and Bob Dole. What we usually see though
[25:36] in the polling is that Bob Dole rarely
[25:37] gets more of a vote than what he has in
[25:39] these surveys going into the election.
[25:41] Lamar Alexander has a bit more room to
[25:43] grow because of his favorable
[25:44] unfavorable ratings. Pat Buchanan is
[25:47] really polarized female voters. When you
[25:49] look at women overall, he's got about a
[25:50] 55% unfavorable rating. So, it's hard to
[25:53] envision a scenario by which he gets a
[25:55] lot of these women who are undecided
[25:56] moderates and liberals. It just doesn't
[25:57] make sense. It's not part of his
[25:58] coalition. How strong is Dole's support?
[26:01] >> Well, it's interesting. Many people
[26:03] criticize Bob Dole for not having a base
[26:05] of support. But what is interesting is
[26:07] that his support with men and women is
[26:09] exactly identical. He has no gender gap.
[26:11] If you look at his vote with
[26:12] conservatives, moderates, and liberals,
[26:14] it is consistent across the board. So he
[26:16] is a very steady solid performer
[26:18] >> and he's strongest among Republican
[26:19] starts, right? But not so strong among
[26:21] independents.
[26:22] >> Absolutely.
[26:23] >> What's happening with the independent
[26:24] vote and how big is it?
[26:25] >> Well, that's what's opened the
[26:26] speculation here. When you look at these
[26:28] polls, um it's a difference between if
[26:30] people say they're registered as
[26:31] independents or whether they consider
[26:32] themselves as independents. We have
[26:34] found that independent composition has
[26:36] declined from 24% 2 weeks ago to 12%
[26:38] today. as that independent composition
[26:41] comes down that tends to be to the
[26:42] detriment of Lamari Alexander and Pat
[26:44] Buchanan and tends to be to the benefit
[26:46] of Bob Dole. And I say that because
[26:48] Lamar Alexander has excellent favorable
[26:50] unfavorable ratings with independents
[26:51] about 61 to 20. Uh Papuchanan has better
[26:55] favorable unfavorable ratings than he
[26:56] did two weeks ago. But Bob Dole's
[26:58] strength is with Republican stalwarts.
[26:59] He's got about a 10-point lead over
[27:01] Papuchanan. So, if Republicans turn out,
[27:03] if independents are um disaffected, not
[27:06] feeling good about the candidates, and
[27:08] stay at home, that will hurt Lamari
[27:10] Alexander.
[27:10] >> You've been working for for Senator Phil
[27:13] Graham. Does the poll show where his
[27:15] voters will go?
[27:16] >> Well, it's interesting. We asked uh
[27:18] whether people had a favorable or
[27:19] unfavorable impression of Senator
[27:20] Graham. And of those who have a
[27:21] favorable impression of Senator Graham,
[27:23] they actually divided their vote fairly
[27:24] evenly between Bob Dole, number one, and
[27:26] Pat Buchanan number two. So the ability
[27:29] of the Dole campaign to get Senator
[27:31] Grant to come in and endorse Senator
[27:32] Dole on Sunday, I think could have some
[27:34] significance with these late decision
[27:36] makers.
[27:37] >> You asked people when they decided who
[27:40] they were going to vote for. And there
[27:42] is some significance uh to the to the
[27:44] time that somebody makes a decision,
[27:45] right? Is there any clue to that to that
[27:47] polling?
[27:48] >> Yes. If you're looking at what we call a
[27:49] surge in the final days of the campaign,
[27:51] if you look at those who say they made
[27:52] up their minds in the last several
[27:54] weeks, about 25% of the electorate say
[27:56] they made up their minds in the last
[27:57] several weeks, Lamari Alexander won that
[27:59] vote uh only marginally, but he did win
[28:01] that vote with 24% while Buchanan and
[28:04] Dole each received 21%. If you look at
[28:06] those who say they made up their minds
[28:08] in the last several days, that's about
[28:09] 21% of the electorate and they tend to
[28:12] break about evenly for Lamar Alexander
[28:14] and Pat Buchanan. And we still have 17%
[28:16] undecided. So, what we're looking at
[28:18] right now is roughly 50% of the
[28:20] electorate saying they've made up their
[28:21] minds in the last two weeks or the last
[28:23] several days with another 17% still
[28:26] waiting to hear what the candidates will
[28:28] say tonight and make their final
[28:29] determination tomorrow based on
[28:31] reservations they have about the
[28:32] candidates and what they think they're
[28:34] looking for in the Republican
[28:35] presidential nominee.
[28:36] >> What stood out in the polling about Pat
[28:37] Buchanan?
[28:38] >> Well, a number of things. Um, first of
[28:40] all is the fact that he has such a high
[28:41] unfavorable rating with women. The
[28:44] second thing is that he has done an
[28:45] excellent job of gaining some support
[28:46] with women over 60. Exactly like the Mr.
[28:49] Brady that we saw in Margaret's piece a
[28:50] little bit earlier, the disaffected uh
[28:52] Republicans who have been a victim of
[28:54] downsizing who feel that his economic
[28:56] theme is talking to them directly. Um he
[28:59] has gained a lot of votes with those men
[29:00] over 60. He has also done an excellent
[29:02] job of getting the conservative
[29:04] coalition behind him. Unfortunately for
[29:05] Mr. Buchanan, the conservative block of
[29:07] voters is not as pronounced as it is in
[29:09] Iowa. Iowa, they tended to make up about
[29:11] 55% of the electorate. In New Hampshire,
[29:13] it's more like 35% of the electorate.
[29:15] The other thing is that there are some
[29:16] very significant reservations that
[29:17] voters have about Pat Buchanan at this
[29:19] time. Uh chief among them is his
[29:21] position on abortion. New Hampshire is
[29:23] much more of a pro-choice state. About
[29:24] 53% consider themselves pro-choice.
[29:27] Women in particular believe his abortion
[29:29] position is too rigid, is inflexible,
[29:31] and will be detrimental to the
[29:32] Republican party. And the second thing
[29:34] is just how he affects the Republican
[29:35] party overall. We found that 44% of our
[29:38] sample said that they had a major
[29:40] reservation and would be much less
[29:41] likely to vote for Pat Buchanan because
[29:43] his views would take the Republican
[29:45] party in the wrong direction and send
[29:47] the wrong signal to the country and to
[29:49] the party. So that's an image problem
[29:51] that he has to overcome.
[29:52] >> And Margaret asked Senator Dole uh why
[29:54] people were unenthusiastic and the
[29:56] senator replied this was true many years
[29:58] before too in many different campaigns.
[30:00] Is that right?
[30:01] >> Well, Senator Dole is correct.
[30:02] Absolutely. In 1976, people were saying,
[30:04] "Oh, it's only Reagan and Ford." You
[30:05] know, 1980, they were complaining that
[30:07] Ronald Reagan was could never be elected
[30:09] president, that he was too extreme. In
[30:11] 1988, with the crowded field, people
[30:13] were saying, "Is this all we have?" And
[30:14] the same thing with 10 candidates in in
[30:16] 1996. So, that tends to be a
[30:18] unfortunate, I have to say, a
[30:19] traditional whining of the Republican
[30:20] electorate about the candidates. But
[30:22] what Iowa and New Hampshire do is they
[30:24] really do winnow out that field. And
[30:26] then I think people find it much easier
[30:27] to deal with two or three significant
[30:29] candidates than carefully scrutinize all
[30:32] 10. And at that point I think they will
[30:33] begin to focus on the common enemy in
[30:35] terms of Republicans and that is Bill
[30:37] Clinton.
[30:38] >> Thank you very much for being with us,
[30:39] Linda.
[30:40] >> Thank you.
[30:41] >> Now how it all looks on the ground to
[30:43] three political reporters who are
[30:45] covering this race. David Broer of the
[30:46] Washington Post, Elizabeth Arnold of
[30:48] National Public Radio, and Ronald
[30:51] Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times.
[30:53] David, beginning with you. How do the
[30:55] polls, your own reporting, conventional
[30:57] wisdom, wherever that comes from, how
[30:59] does it all add up to you tonight?
[31:01] >> Well, it adds up to a situation where
[31:03] you don't want to make any predictions,
[31:05] at least I don't, as to who's going to
[31:08] win here. Uh, I would say that the best
[31:10] campaigns that we've seen in this state
[31:13] in the past week have belong to Pat
[31:15] Buchanan and Lamar Alexander. And down a
[31:18] little bit further in the field, I think
[31:20] that Senator Dick Lugar of Indiana has
[31:23] finally begun to make some headway. The
[31:27] least effective campaigns I think here
[31:29] have been Senator Doles and Mr. Forbes.
[31:32] >> But what does that mean? What does that
[31:33] add up to? You're not going to tell me
[31:35] what it adds up to, right?
[31:36] >> Uh I'm not going to tell you who's going
[31:38] to win because I don't know.
[31:40] >> Elizabeth Arnold, do you know who's
[31:41] going to win tomorrow? And it's
[31:42] >> No, no, no. You're not going to bait me
[31:44] into that.
[31:45] >> I think it's a I think it's a wide
[31:47] openen race. I think Patrick Buchanan
[31:48] has definitely uh revealed the weakness
[31:52] of the presumed front runner, Senator
[31:53] Dole. I've been going to Dole rallies
[31:55] all week. Um the rallies are sedate
[31:58] affairs. There are uh party people
[32:00] there. They have the red, white, and
[32:02] blue bunting and they have the music and
[32:03] the balloons, but that's about it. I
[32:05] went to the Buchanan rally yesterday. Uh
[32:08] the place was just packed. The sound
[32:10] system didn't work, but those folks were
[32:12] very enthusiastic and and I think that
[32:15] Senator Dole's got a problem.
[32:16] >> Yeah. What kind of problem Ron Ron
[32:18] Brownstein do you see for Senator Dole?
[32:21] >> Well, I think the problem for Senator
[32:22] Dole is that in political races of any
[32:24] sort, when you get to the very end, the
[32:26] undecideds tend to break away from the
[32:28] incumbent. And Senator Dole, for all
[32:30] intents and purposes, the deacto
[32:31] incumbent in this race, he's running
[32:33] consistently around 25% in the polls.
[32:35] Almost all public polls have shown him
[32:37] at that level or lower. It may be hard
[32:39] for him to perform much above that. and
[32:41] and uh when you look at the composition
[32:43] of the undecidedsideds as Alind Deval
[32:45] was talking about other polling shows
[32:47] that too they tend to be more moderate
[32:48] that could help Lamar Alexander the hard
[32:51] thing is that is that you you you have a
[32:52] three-way squeeze developing where
[32:54] Alexander is competing with Dole for the
[32:56] moderates and women and Buchanan is very
[32:58] effectively competing for men and
[33:00] conservatives and Dole is sort of like
[33:02] an island in the middle with the waves
[33:04] rising on both sides. It's going to be
[33:06] very tight. Uh the winner I think will
[33:08] only be a few points ahead of the second
[33:09] place finisher and then that only a few
[33:11] points ahead of the third place
[33:12] finisher.
[33:12] >> Dave Broer, is there is there some kind
[33:15] of form sheet here or dope sheet that
[33:17] look if if Dole doesn't do any better
[33:20] than such and such that means he's got
[33:21] this problem. Alexander's got to do
[33:23] this, Buchanan's got to do that. Or is
[33:25] it is it so tight among the three that
[33:27] all three of them pretty much come out
[33:28] of New Hampshire still alive no matter
[33:31] how they finish?
[33:32] >> No, I don't think it means that. I think
[33:34] if Senator Dole fails to win here, and
[33:36] particularly if he should fall to third
[33:38] place, he has a serious problem. As he
[33:41] pointed out in in the interview with
[33:43] Margaret, he has a national campaign. He
[33:45] has all of the endorsements of all of
[33:47] those Republican governors. He's in
[33:49] place in all of those states. But the
[33:52] Republican party establishment cannot
[33:55] tolerate the idea of Pat Buchanan being
[33:58] the party nominee. If Senator Dole can't
[34:01] stop Buchanan in New Hampshire, I think
[34:03] a lot of those party stalwarts will look
[34:05] again and find that Lamar Alexander may
[34:08] be the one that they have to back.
[34:11] >> Elizabeth, is it conceivable to you that
[34:13] uh Bob Dole could finish third?
[34:17] >> I I don't think uh in New Hampshire, I I
[34:20] I can't see him finishing third. I agree
[34:22] with David though that Lamar Alexander
[34:25] could do well if Senator Joel doesn't
[34:26] come out of New Hampshire uh in first
[34:29] place because the party faithful will
[34:31] have to throw their weight behind
[34:32] someone else. Although, you know, I
[34:34] think that that that Patrick Buchanan
[34:36] inadvertently has done one thing good
[34:38] for the party and that is he has forced
[34:40] the rest of the field to talk to people
[34:42] about what they really care about that
[34:44] their paychecks don't go as far as they
[34:46] used to. He's been out there doing that.
[34:48] That's what fires people up. And
[34:50] suddenly you have Senator Dole sounding
[34:52] like uh President Clinton last night at
[34:54] a rally talking about people who work
[34:56] hard and have played by the rules who
[34:58] are getting the short end of the stick.
[35:00] >> Well, Elizabeth, the people you've
[35:01] talked to on the I'm talking about
[35:03] voters now, not not the not the
[35:05] candidates, not their handlers, not
[35:07] their campaign people. Do the people
[35:08] you've talked to in New Hampshire feel
[35:10] that they are actually deciding who the
[35:12] Republican nominee is going to be? Is it
[35:14] that big a deal to them?
[35:16] >> Oh, it is a very big deal to them. Um, I
[35:18] I meet people. I met someone just
[35:20] yesterday, a couple, and they're just
[35:22] traveling around. They were traveling
[35:23] around all weekend. They had better
[35:25] schedules than I did for the candidates.
[35:26] They were going to go to Derry, then
[35:27] they were going to Manchester, then they
[35:29] go far north. They were seeing more
[35:30] candidates than I was in one day. And
[35:33] they were very serious about what they
[35:34] were doing. They were very methodical.
[35:36] And maybe that accounts for a lot of the
[35:37] undecideds. They they do take this very
[35:39] seriously.
[35:40] >> And Ron, does that does that help any of
[35:42] the candidates? I mean, if if you're if
[35:44] somebody's sitting there saying, "Oh,
[35:45] I'm not just voting my emotions. I am
[35:47] voting who voting for who I want to run
[35:50] against Bill Clinton in November." Is
[35:52] that come out with a different result in
[35:54] your opinion based on your reporting?
[35:56] >> Well, you know, I I'm not sure that they
[35:58] I I think that you can be serious about
[35:59] about this choice without necessarily
[36:02] making it in a strategic way in that
[36:04] sense of who who you want the party
[36:05] nominee to be. uh uh voters are not
[36:08] political consultants and they and and
[36:10] some of them will be swayed by
[36:11] electability and in fact that is one of
[36:13] the reasons why there probably is a
[36:15] ceiling on Buchanan support and he needs
[36:17] a three-way division to be viable. Uh on
[36:20] the other hand I think that there is
[36:22] many people are just sort of looking at
[36:23] these people as individuals looking at
[36:25] what they're saying and and and going
[36:27] with their gut. You know, this is so
[36:29] close among the top three that even the
[36:31] second tier candidates are going to have
[36:33] an effect. In Iowa, the 7% that Alan
[36:35] Keys won from religious conservatives
[36:38] really prevented Pat Buchanan from
[36:39] coming even closer and perhaps even
[36:41] beating Bob Dole. Similarly here, Dick
[36:43] Luger, as David mentioned, is doing
[36:46] better. uh is showing up a little higher
[36:48] in the polls and what he pulls away from
[36:50] the more moderate side of the ledger
[36:52] which is a significant part of the
[36:53] electorate here that could affect
[36:55] whether Alexander or Dole uh gets past
[36:57] Buchanan and how Alexander and Dole sort
[36:59] out. So it's it's very tight and people
[37:01] do take it very seriously.
[37:03] >> David, there's been much talk in the
[37:05] last uh two or three days that this is
[37:07] the most negative campaign in the
[37:09] history of New Hampshire primaries.
[37:11] You've covered not all the primaries of
[37:14] New Hampshire in history, but a lot of
[37:16] them in re more recent history. Is that
[37:18] true?
[37:19] >> Well, I think we tend to forget how
[37:21] negative some of the past campaigns have
[37:24] been. In 1984,
[37:27] John Glenn threw a lot of heavy negative
[37:30] advertising against Fritz Manddale. In
[37:33] 1964, which was the first time I was up
[37:36] here, uh the supporters of Nelson
[37:38] Rockefeller were beating the Jesus out
[37:41] of Barry Goldwater about uh about social
[37:44] security. So, it's not brand new, but I
[37:46] think in terms of volume uh with what
[37:49] Mr. Forbes did early and what Senator
[37:52] Dele is doing late, it really has been a
[37:55] very negative tone to this one.
[37:57] >> Elizabeth Arnold, speaking of Steve
[37:58] Forbes, what happened to him in New
[38:00] Hampshire? what is happening to him in
[38:02] New Hampshire?
[38:03] >> Well, I went uh to a Steve Forbes rally
[38:05] the other day and uh there weren't a lot
[38:07] of folks there. Uh in fact, they were
[38:09] asking the people in the back of the
[38:10] room to move up and and and fill fill in
[38:12] the seats at the front. Um the people
[38:14] that I talked to there were giving him
[38:16] another look. They were very interested
[38:18] in the flat tax. They had specific
[38:20] questions about the flat tax. Uh and
[38:23] they didn't like the answers. Um, I
[38:25] think that people like a winner and and
[38:27] and when he came out of Iowa not doing
[38:30] so well, that accounted for some of the
[38:32] fade of the of the Forbes phenomenon,
[38:34] but I think another big part of it were
[38:37] people people really did take a look at
[38:38] what it was that he was selling and
[38:40] weren't so sure about it.
[38:42] >> How did you what's your reading on
[38:43] Forbes, Ron, as to what's happened?
[38:45] >> Well, I I went out with him the other
[38:46] day also and I actually saw him have a
[38:48] better day. I think he is recovering a
[38:49] little bit in terms of reestablishing
[38:51] what people liked about him in the first
[38:53] place that he's an outsider. He's not a
[38:54] politician. He's talking about economic
[38:56] reform. He's obviously had a big impact
[38:58] on the campaign. Both he and Buchanan
[39:00] have forced, as Elizabeth suggested
[39:01] before, Dole and Alexander to move
[39:03] toward a a larger discussion of growth.
[39:06] I mean, both Alexander and and Graham
[39:09] and Dole all ran the same campaign in
[39:10] '95, shrink the government and restore
[39:12] moral values with really no discussion
[39:15] of the of the impact on the middle
[39:16] class. uh Forbes has forced that agenda,
[39:18] but I I think that he is he is sort of
[39:20] stuck in this catch 22. Each of these
[39:22] events exist only in the context of the
[39:24] previous event. And when he fell out of
[39:26] the the inner circle in Iowa, a lot of
[39:28] people here felt, well, this is someone
[39:29] who's not going anywhere and I can't
[39:31] support him, but I don't think he's
[39:32] going to fall through the floor.
[39:33] >> Yeah. David, uh David Broer, finally,
[39:36] winnowing is the is the operable word
[39:39] here. in and whenever in any of these
[39:41] events do you expect should we expect
[39:44] I'm not going to ask you which which of
[39:46] the winnow ease are going to be is this
[39:48] going to be a major winnowing event
[39:50] tomorrow
[39:51] >> I expect so many of these candidates are
[39:53] out of money and those who don't manage
[39:56] to make it into the top three I think
[39:58] we'll have a hard time going back to
[40:00] their sponsors and supporters to raise
[40:03] additional funds
[40:04] >> you agree Elizabeth
[40:05] >> well I think if it isn't we'll all be
[40:07] forced to write these stories about
[40:09] whether New Hampshire should be the
[40:10] first in the nation primary, but you
[40:11] know, you really have to start
[40:13] somewhere.
[40:13] >> Yeah. And so, I mean, in other words,
[40:15] that's a yes, right?
[40:16] >> Yeah.
[40:17] >> Yeah. Ron,
[40:18] >> well, I think that you probably have a
[40:19] three-way race coming out of this, but
[40:21] three-way race, like a three three-way
[40:23] relationship is inherently unstable. And
[40:25] I think that before too long, uh, it's
[40:28] going to narrow down to uh to two
[40:29] people. Uh, Dole and Alexander, I don't
[40:31] think, can stay in this race
[40:33] indefinitely. Probably not past South
[40:34] Carolina. Certainly not past Georgia.
[40:36] >> So, it's one of them versus Buchanan. I
[40:38] I think so.
[40:39] >> Yeah. You agree, David?
[40:41] >> Uh, that's a pretty good hunch. I think,
[40:44] >> Elizabeth,
[40:45] >> maybe.
[40:46] >> Maybe. Oh, you all are terrific.
[40:49] Thank you all three very much.
[41:02] Now, an update on the battle in the West
[41:04] over environmental regulations, the
[41:06] so-called sagebrush rebellion that
[41:08] erupted in the 1980s. Rod Minet of KCTS
[41:12] Seattle reports.
[41:14] >> Oh, this is uh
[41:15] >> this is your war on the West.
[41:17] >> Yeah, this is uh stop the Clinton war on
[41:19] the West. So, we'll uh we'll take this
[41:24] one for sure. On a recent morning in
[41:26] southwest Washington, Chuck Kushman
[41:28] found himself gearing up for battle.
[41:30] >> People really like this. Uh, and we get
[41:34] people to declare their convention a a
[41:36] Clinton-free zone.
[41:37] >> Kushman, a property rights activist, was
[41:39] packing his t-shirts and pamphlets for a
[41:41] special meeting. A key gathering of
[41:44] conservatives committed to scaling back
[41:46] government environmental rules. Oh, say
[41:50] can you see
[41:54] by the dawn early
[42:00] >> the 3-day summit conference in Portland
[42:02] was organized by leaders of a movement
[42:04] known as wise youth a movement which
[42:06] says it is pro- environment
[42:09] I think there has to be a balance
[42:10] between environmental protection and
[42:12] people that you have to have a strong
[42:14] economy to afford a clean environment
[42:17] Kushman has been a top strategist for
[42:19] wise use since its founding in 1988. It
[42:22] grew out of a fight over public lands in
[42:24] the 1980s known as the Western Sagebrush
[42:26] Rebellion. The environmental groups were
[42:28] having tremendous power. These green
[42:31] lobby groups were targeting uh ranchers,
[42:34] miners, loggers, forestry people, uh
[42:37] private property, uh growth control, all
[42:40] kinds of regulations, wetlands,
[42:42] endangered species. and the local people
[42:45] were being divided and conquered. They
[42:47] really didn't know how to fight back.
[42:49] >> 400 delegates, mostly Republicans from
[42:52] 13 western states, attended the
[42:53] conference to strategize and share
[42:55] ideas. The wise use agenda calls for
[42:58] opening up public lands to more grazing,
[43:01] mining, logging, and oil exploration.
[43:03] Other proposals would turn over millions
[43:05] of acres of federal BLM land to the
[43:08] states and rewrite the Endangered
[43:10] Species Act to force the government to
[43:12] pay land owners for preserving rare
[43:14] plants and animals.
[43:15] >> Your efforts here today will help ensure
[43:18] that Bill Clinton's war on the West will
[43:22] not succeed and that is crucial.
[43:26] >> Keynote speakers included Elizabeth
[43:28] Dole, wife of GOP presidential candidate
[43:30] Bob Dole. Wise use has seen its
[43:33] influence grow on the heels of the 1994
[43:35] Republican sweep both in Congress and in
[43:38] state houses across the West. Many
[43:40] conservative House Republicans saw the
[43:42] win as a mandate to cut environmental
[43:45] regulations and embraced much of the
[43:47] wise use agenda. At stake are federal
[43:50] environmental laws passed over the last
[43:52] 25 years designed to protect and clean
[43:54] up air, water, and land. We do have an
[43:57] open door to the members of Congress and
[44:00] we do use that open door regularly.
[44:02] >> Met Johnson is co-founder of the Western
[44:05] States Coalition, the group that
[44:06] sponsored the Wise You Summit.
[44:08] >> We stand for a healthy environment and
[44:11] we stand for a healthy western economy.
[44:14] We want to resolve failed public policy
[44:17] and reduce the heavy hand of
[44:19] bureaucracy.
[44:20] >> But on a number of key environmental
[44:22] issues, rolling back that bureaucracy
[44:24] has proved elusive.
[44:26] Examples include efforts to open up
[44:28] Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
[44:30] to oil and gas drilling. House and
[44:33] Senate conferees attached language to
[44:35] the omnibus budget reconciliation bill
[44:38] allowing for the drilling, but the
[44:40] measure was vetoed by President Clinton
[44:42] in December. On property rights, bills
[44:45] that would require the federal
[44:46] government to pay land owners for losses
[44:48] due to regulation have yet to clear
[44:50] Congress. While the House has approved a
[44:53] property rights bill, the Senate has yet
[44:55] to move its version to the floor for a
[44:57] vote on endangered species. Bills in
[45:00] both the House and Senate would rewrite
[45:02] the Endangered Species Act reducing
[45:04] protections for at risk animals and
[45:06] plants. While the House Natural
[45:08] Resources Committee has passed
[45:10] legislation, the Senate has yet to take
[45:12] action on its endangered species
[45:14] proposal.
[45:16] >> Ideas take time. Wise you use leaders
[45:18] like Chuck Kushman say they never
[45:20] expected to win everything overnight in
[45:22] Congress. He says change is incremental.
[45:25] >> Our people are not used to being in a
[45:28] position where we have a majority in
[45:30] Congress. And so I think many of our
[45:33] people naively thought we elected a
[45:35] Congress. They're going to go ahead and
[45:36] fix this thing. That's not the way it
[45:38] works. The environmental groups know
[45:40] that. You elect these people then you
[45:41] got to stay on them in order to get them
[45:43] to do anything. Uh and we didn't do
[45:45] that. A lot of our people let down. We
[45:47] asked them to I personally asked them to
[45:49] write the letters. A lot of them didn't
[45:50] do it.
[45:51] >> Setbacks have also taken place at the
[45:53] state level. Borders recently rejected
[45:55] property rights initiatives in both
[45:57] Washington state and Arizona. The
[45:59] measures would have required governments
[46:01] to compensate property owners for losses
[46:03] triggered by environmental rules.
[46:08] So far, the most significant legislation
[46:10] supported by wise use that has succeeded
[46:12] is a salvage logging writer attached to
[46:15] a spending bill. Congress passed and
[46:17] President Clinton signed the measure
[46:19] into law last summer.
[46:24] But the writer not only stepped up
[46:25] logging of dead and dying trees, it also
[46:28] waved environmental laws to allow clear
[46:30] cutting of old growth trees in some
[46:32] national forests of the Northwest.
[46:37] That victory has outraged
[46:39] environmentalists who picketed the wise
[46:41] conference. Environmentalists say the
[46:43] fact that the salvage timber bill has
[46:45] been the only significant legislation
[46:47] that has passed shows that many believe
[46:50] wise use and its agenda are too extreme.
[46:53] Tom Novik is with the Western States
[46:55] Center, an environmental group that
[46:57] monitors wise use.
[46:59] >> They portray themselves as seeking
[47:01] balance in the environmental debate. Um,
[47:04] you know, the whole phrase wise use
[47:06] sounds good. Who could be against wise
[47:08] use? The reality is when you pull that
[47:10] veneer off, you find, as I said, that
[47:13] they're primarily financed by resource
[47:15] industries that benefit from the roll
[47:16] back of environmental laws.
[47:18] >> Wise's ties to industry are not hidden.
[47:21] I had uh talked a little bit with Matt
[47:23] here today um about possibility I told
[47:25] him I'd be willing to work with him try
[47:27] to raise some corporate money for the
[47:29] coalition
[47:30] there get a little
[47:33] money in the treasury for you guys
[47:35] >> appreciate it
[47:36] >> but wise you use leaders deny that means
[47:38] they are extremists
[47:40] >> our goal is not to dismantle the
[47:43] environment and it's not to rape it and
[47:45] leave it there
[47:46] >> Rob Bishop is co-founder of the Western
[47:48] States Coalition a political arm of wise
[47:51] use.
[47:51] >> There's been a lot of bad science that's
[47:53] been thrown around in the name of
[47:54] environmentalism
[47:56] and that bad science has produced has
[47:59] produced efforts that have been costly
[48:01] to people and harmful to the land. So
[48:05] wise use is is specifically that it is
[48:07] wise use. It's not a fancy way of saying
[48:10] of of trying to rape the land in a in a
[48:12] nice gentlemanly way. It is simply
[48:14] saying that the land is there and it
[48:16] should be managed. That's the purpose of
[48:17] it.
[48:19] Critics refuse to believe the land
[48:21] management argument and insist Wise Use
[48:24] really is a radical anti-environmental
[48:26] movement,
[48:28] >> but Wise Use has a lot of supporters.
[48:30] Some say up to 100,000 and is expected
[48:33] to remain a potent political force in
[48:35] the West.
[48:36] >> Way I see it, since I'm a cowboy, that
[48:38] means I'm an endangered species, so I
[48:40] shouldn't have to pay no taxes at all.
[48:42] Most of the 400 delegates attending the
[48:44] summit meeting were publicly elected
[48:46] officials, county commissioners, and
[48:48] state legislators from rural areas. Many
[48:51] vowed they would press ahead with
[48:53] proposals to pass regulatory reform at
[48:55] the local level, including property
[48:57] rights legislation. Weissu's leaders
[49:00] like Chuck Kushman remained optimistic
[49:02] about victory. For years, we've been
[49:04] fighting defensive. We've been fighting
[49:07] where the environmental groups have
[49:08] wanted what we've had and they wanted to
[49:10] take take away our property and they
[49:12] haven't wanted to pay for it. Now we're
[49:15] fighting over what they have. See, the
[49:18] agenda is they're on the defensive. I I
[49:22] think we're not losing, we're winning.
[49:24] >> With the 1996 elections on the horizon,
[49:27] both sides in this environmental battle
[49:29] are bracing for a better fight.
[49:39] Finally tonight, our regular Monday
[49:41] night essay. Richard Rodriguez, an
[49:43] editor of Pacific News Service,
[49:46] considers the number of women on death
[49:48] row.
[49:49] >> There are today over 2,000 men in
[49:51] American prisons awaiting execution for
[49:54] one crime or another. By contrast, a
[49:58] relative handful of women, 49 at last
[50:00] count, are on death row.
[50:03] How is one to account for this
[50:05] astonishing disparity? To put the
[50:07] question bluntly, are women less evil
[50:10] than men, less criminal, less dangerous?
[50:15] A few weeks ago in Illinois, Gueneavir
[50:17] Garcia was scheduled to be executed.
[50:20] As a teenager, Miss Garcia had murdered
[50:23] her infant daughter. She was on death
[50:26] row for the murder of her second
[50:28] husband. She had asked the state of
[50:30] Illinois to execute her without further
[50:32] delay, but days before her scheduled
[50:35] death, her execution was commuted to a
[50:38] life sentence by Governor Jim Edgar.
[50:41] The governor's commutation has led some
[50:43] to ask whether or not America views the
[50:46] woman criminal in a very different way
[50:48] than the male.
[50:51] From the most ancient times, we have
[50:54] believed that women were responsible for
[50:55] male failure.
[50:57] Eve, after all, tempted Adam. Women
[51:00] tempt men, distract men from higher
[51:03] things.
[51:05] Women must be robed or segregated from
[51:07] men at prayer. Women are unclean, their
[51:10] bodies closer to the cycles and secrets
[51:12] of nature that are withheld from the
[51:14] male. The woman can be a witch for that
[51:17] reason. Though Satan, the true actor in
[51:21] history, must be male. Here I think is
[51:25] how the ethical distinction between male
[51:26] and female behavior got made. The male
[51:29] traditionally had access to public life.
[51:32] His actions are significant in a
[51:34] different way. They have consequence for
[51:37] the public society.
[51:39] But Eve can only be a temptress. She is
[51:42] not the agent for sin. The role of the
[51:45] sinner alone belongs to the male.
[51:48] Even when one thinks of a modern-day
[51:50] villainous, Eva Bronn, for example, it
[51:53] is her male companion, Adolf Hitler, one
[51:56] is remembering.
[51:58] It is still hard to name more than a few
[52:00] women villains in history or in the
[52:02] popular arts. Livia, the wife of
[52:04] Augustus, Lady McBth, Eve Harrington and
[52:08] All About Eve, Katherine Demetic,
[52:12] The Wild West, Bellar, Gwen Verden,
[52:15] seducing tab hunter and damn Yankees.
[52:18] Last year at the Beijing Conference on
[52:20] Women, Burmese opposition leader
[52:23] Angansuchi
[52:25] stood the argument on its head.
[52:28] For centuries, she said, "Women have
[52:30] dedicated themselves to the care of the
[52:32] young and the old. Now, women must take
[52:35] the wisdom and experience gained at home
[52:37] to transform the corrupt maledominated
[52:40] governments of the world." In other
[52:42] words, the long enclosure of women
[52:45] inside the house is what necessitates
[52:48] their entrance into public life.
[52:51] In the West, the most famous woman in
[52:53] history has been the Virgin Mary. As a
[52:55] Catholic and as a male, I suppose I've
[52:58] always regarded Mary less as a symbol of
[53:00] womanhood than as a model of the
[53:02] feminine principle in history. An
[53:04] example to men as much as to women. A
[53:07] number of women I know, however, find
[53:10] Mary's version of holiness too tender,
[53:12] only maternal.
[53:14] There is still a tendency to see a
[53:17] woman's behavior simply as a reaction to
[53:20] the male.
[53:22] Last year, when Susan Smith made
[53:24] headlines for driving her automobile
[53:26] into a lake and drowning her two infant
[53:29] sons, an argument in her defense was the
[53:32] claim of sexual abuse. The male made me
[53:36] do it.
[53:38] Is Adam tempting Eve?
[53:41] As women have assumed public life, one
[53:43] senses a growing female willingness to
[53:46] confront evil, certainly to reject the
[53:49] role of the good girl, to be as bad as
[53:51] the boys.
[53:54] As women routinely assume public life,
[53:57] as men assume the woman's right to leave
[53:59] the house, we will probably in some
[54:02] future be less inclined to romanticize
[54:05] female virtue.
[54:08] Curiously, a horrible measure of
[54:10] feminism's necessary success in America
[54:14] may someday end up being an equal number
[54:17] of women as men on death row.
[54:21] I'm Richard Rodriguez.
[54:29] Again, the major stories of this holiday
[54:32] Monday. Republican presidential
[54:34] candidates made a final pitch for
[54:35] support in tomorrow's New Hampshire
[54:37] primary. Bosnian Serge refused to attend
[54:40] a follow-up meeting to last weekend's
[54:43] peace summit in Rome. And British police
[54:45] detained two persons that according to
[54:47] some press reports may be linked to the
[54:50] bombing of a London bus last night. The
[54:52] Irish Republican Army claimed
[54:53] responsibility for the blast that killed
[54:56] one person, injured eight others. A
[54:58] followup before we go tonight. It's to
[55:00] our Thursday night story about chess and
[55:02] the computer. International chess grand
[55:05] man grandmaster Gary Kasparov beat the
[55:09] supercomputer deep blue Saturday in the
[55:11] final match final game of their match.
[55:14] The score was 4 to2. Kasparov lost to
[55:16] the machine earlier in the match. And
[55:19] we'll see you tomorrow night. I'm Jim
[55:20] Lara. Thank you and good night.
[55:25] Major funding for the NewsHour with Jim
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[55:44] and by the Corporation for Public
[55:46] Broadcasting, and by the annual
[55:48] financial support from viewers like you.
[55:56] Tomorrow on NPR's Morning Edition, Nina
[55:58] Totenberg on the Supreme Court's review
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[57:12] There have been many maritime disasters,
[57:14] but none have caught the public
[57:15] imagination in such a dramatic and
[57:18] lasting way as that of the Titanic. From
[57:20] construction to the ill- fated maiden
[57:23] voyage until its discovery on the North
[57:25] Atlantic floor some 73 years later. See
[57:29] one of the most thorough and riveting
[57:31] stories one will ever witness. Watch the
[57:33] Titanic
[57:34] >> on OPB tonight at 10.
[57:41] >> Well, our OPB forecast for tonight, it's
[57:43] going to be a somewhat wet one. We'll
[57:45] see more rain moving into the area. Some
[57:47] >> today