The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour (PBS) - 1992-03-18
Channel: malgent
Transcript
Language: English (original, YouTube automatic captions)
[0:01] [music]
[0:06] Good evening. I'm Jim Lair in
[0:08] Washington.
[0:08] >> And I'm Judy Woodruff in New York. After
[0:11] our summary of the news this Wednesday,
[0:13] we focus on what the voters in South
[0:15] Africa were saying with their
[0:17] endorsement of reform. We'll talk with
[0:19] South Africa's ambassador to the US.
[0:22] Then yesterday's primaries in Michigan
[0:24] and Illinois, their message about the
[0:27] presidential contest, and their warning
[0:29] to the Congress. Funding for the McNeel
[0:31] Aeron NewsHour has been provided by
[0:33] PepsiCo.
[0:36] [music]
[0:40] >> [music]
[0:49] >> Part of helping the world live and
[0:51] communicate better is keeping it well
[0:52] informed. That's why funding for the
[0:55] NewsHour is also provided by AT&T
[0:58] and by the Corporation for Public
[1:00] Broadcasting and viewers like you.
[1:03] President Clerk has a mandate to end
[1:06] white minority rule over the black
[1:08] majority in South Africa. It came from
[1:10] nearly 70% of those who voted in
[1:13] yesterday's whites only referendum. The
[1:16] clerk called the vote to measure white
[1:18] support for negotiating a new
[1:20] constitution and power sharing. We have
[1:22] a report from Jerry Thompson of
[1:24] Independent Television News.
[1:28] >> It was the perfect present for Mr. De
[1:30] Clerk on his 56th birthday.
[1:36] The landslide victory he'd called for
[1:38] marking a turning point in South
[1:40] Africa's history.
[1:41] >> Today we have closed the book on aparate
[1:46] and that chapter is finally closed.
[1:51] >> It had been a staggering 85% turnout
[1:55] with over 2/3 polling yes for what
[1:57] amounts to a future of one man one vote.
[2:03] Though blacks were still protesting of
[2:05] Mr. D clerk's policies today, rather
[2:07] than celebrating his victory, they will
[2:10] now expect a rapid acceleration in the
[2:12] march towards reform.
[2:14] >> We are now on the eve of black having an
[2:18] effective say in the government of their
[2:20] country.
[2:22] >> Despite being routed, the leader of the
[2:24] right-wing alliance wouldn't admit
[2:25] defeat.
[2:26] >> The struggle for our freedom and
[2:28] survival continued.
[2:30] And that struggle has today, the 18th of
[2:33] March, entered a new phase.
[2:37] >> Talks between the government and the
[2:39] African National Congress will continue
[2:41] and could result in the result of an
[2:43] interim multi-racial government later
[2:45] this year. In Washington this afternoon,
[2:48] State Department spokeswoman Margaret
[2:50] Tutweiler welcomed the referendum
[2:52] outcome.
[2:53] This vote sends a message of
[2:55] reconciliation to black South Africans
[2:57] who have demonstrated a remarkable
[2:59] willingness to put the past behind them.
[3:02] Yesterday, white South Africans made
[3:04] their preference crystal clear. They
[3:07] rejected a no option that would have led
[3:09] to a return of international isolation
[3:12] and domestic discord. All South Africans
[3:15] have a stake in their country's future
[3:17] and a right to make their views known.
[3:20] The way forward to a negotiated
[3:22] settlement is now more open than ever.
[3:25] >> We'll have an interview with the South
[3:27] Africa ambassador to the United States
[3:29] right after this news summary. Judy,
[3:32] >> in this country, results from
[3:33] yesterday's primaries in Michigan and
[3:35] Illinois put Bill Clinton and George
[3:37] Bush in the winner circle. With all the
[3:40] Democratic votes counted in Michigan,
[3:42] Clinton won 51% of the vote, Jerry Brown
[3:46] 26, and Paul Sanonga 17. President Bush
[3:49] on the Republican side carried 67% to
[3:53] Pat Buchanan's 25. In Illinois with 99%
[3:57] of the vote counted, the Democratic
[3:59] numbers were Clinton 51%, Songis 26,
[4:03] Brown 15. On the Republican side, Mr.
[4:06] Bush had 76% and Buchanan 22. This
[4:11] morning, Buchanan all but conceded the
[4:13] nomination to the president. He spoke at
[4:15] an airport news conference outside
[4:18] Washington.
[4:19] >> Clearly, the pre president won two uh
[4:21] big victories yesterday in Michigan and
[4:24] Illinois and he appears to be headed for
[4:27] the nomination and only celestial
[4:28] intervention
[4:30] uh could interrupt that process. And so
[4:34] uh uh our campaign however because it
[4:37] was not simply about delegates is going
[4:39] to continue. So we are gaining ground
[4:42] and we are making converts uh everywhere
[4:44] we go by the phone calls by 10 to one
[4:47] are saying stay in and keep doing battle
[4:50] and that's what we intend to do and so
[4:53] we're going to proceed ahead with this
[4:54] campaign.
[4:56] >> The Democratic primary in Illinois
[4:58] surprised several congressional
[5:00] incumbents who were counting on being
[5:02] reelected. Two-term US Senator Alan
[5:05] Dixon was defeated by Cook County
[5:07] official Carol Mosley Brawn. It was
[5:10] Dixon's first defeat in 43 years of
[5:12] politics. Brawn decided to run after
[5:15] Dixon voted last fall to confirm
[5:18] Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. If
[5:21] Brawn wins in November, she will be the
[5:23] first black woman ever elected to the
[5:26] Senate. And in a race profiled on the
[5:28] NewsHour last night, five-term
[5:30] Congressman Charles Hayes lost to former
[5:33] Black Panther Bobby Rush. Last week,
[5:36] Hayes admitted that he wrote 716 bad
[5:39] checks at the troubled House Bank. Rush
[5:42] made that a key campaign issue. We'll
[5:44] have more on the results of yesterday's
[5:46] primaries later in the program.
[5:49] >> There was a claim of responsibility
[5:50] today for the bombing of the Israeli
[5:52] embassy in Argentina that killed at
[5:54] least 12 people. The Islamic Jihad, a
[5:57] pro-Iranian fundamentalist group, issued
[6:00] a statement in Beirut, Lebanon, saying
[6:02] it ordered the bombing to avenge
[6:04] Israel's assassination last month of a
[6:07] Shiite Muslim leader. In addition to the
[6:09] dead, another 250 people were injured in
[6:12] yesterday's blast. Before that claim,
[6:14] Israel's foreign minister, David Levy,
[6:17] threatened to strike back at the
[6:18] bombers. He said those who carried out
[6:20] these murders and those who sent them
[6:22] can expect painful punishment. The
[6:25] Israeli government will choose the place
[6:27] and manner to avenge the blood of the
[6:29] fallen. Rescue crews in Buenosiris
[6:32] continued to search throughout the day
[6:34] for victims trapped in the rubble.
[6:36] Officials said as many as 20 people
[6:38] could still be inside. They said it was
[6:40] doubtful any were still alive. At least
[6:43] 30 people were killed in a landslide
[6:45] that hit a shanty town slum in Brazil.
[6:48] Another 400 were reported missing. The
[6:50] tragedy occurred 250 mi north of Rio de
[6:53] Janeiro. There was no official
[6:55] explanation for the landslide, but a
[6:58] Brazilian news service said it was
[6:59] caused by construction near the slum.
[7:02] The former Soviet Republic of Ukraine
[7:05] has reportedly agreed to resume shipping
[7:07] nuclear weapons to Russia for
[7:09] destruction. Ukrainian President Leoned
[7:12] Krabchuk said last week he would stop
[7:14] the shipments because he was concerned
[7:16] that Russia might redeploy the weapons
[7:19] rather than destroy them. But today,
[7:21] Russian news agencies quoted President
[7:23] Boris Yelen as saying that Krabtuk had
[7:26] promised to hand over all the weapons by
[7:28] July 1st as previously agreed.
[7:31] >> Hotel owner Leona Helmsley was ordered
[7:34] today to report to federal prison April
[7:36] 15th. A federal judge in New York City
[7:38] declined to set aside the four-year
[7:40] prison sentence she received following
[7:42] her conviction for tax evasion. She had
[7:45] said she was too ill to go to prison.
[7:47] And that's it for the news summary
[7:49] tonight. Now it's on to the referendum
[7:50] in South Africa and to the primaries in
[7:53] Michigan and Illinois.
[8:01] >> [music]
[8:03] >> The white minority has voted to endorse
[8:05] the inevitable, a move toward black
[8:08] majority rule in South Africa. A record
[8:10] 85% of white voters turned out for the
[8:13] referendum on continuing negotiations
[8:16] and the yes vote was 68.7%.
[8:19] Our coverage of this lead story begins
[8:21] with a report by Judy Alid of
[8:24] Independent Television News.
[8:27] >> It's a victory. President the clerk has
[8:29] been hoping for the massive win giving
[8:32] him a clear mandate to press ahead with
[8:34] reform. The man who began change here
[8:37] two years ago now claiming finally the
[8:40] end of apartate.
[8:41] >> Today we have closed the book on aparate
[8:46] and that chapter is finally closed.
[8:52] We standing on this threshold
[8:56] face a future
[8:58] full of challenges.
[9:00] Nothing is going to be easy.
[9:03] But we have chosen our direction.
[9:07] We have laid the foundation on which to
[9:10] build
[9:11] real reconciliation,
[9:14] long-term stability and peace and
[9:17] progress for all. The result will have a
[9:20] direct effect on negotiations. The
[9:22] convention for a democratic South
[9:24] Africa, Cadessa, which first met four
[9:27] months ago, is already well on the way
[9:29] to agreeing the principles for a new
[9:31] constitution.
[9:33] For the black majority marching in
[9:35] protest against the budget today, that's
[9:37] heightened their demand for a place in
[9:39] an interim government, which they now
[9:42] want by the end of the year. We hope now
[9:45] that the National Party
[9:48] as well as its leaders
[9:50] will stop regarding themselves
[9:54] as the leaders of a tribe as the leaders
[9:57] of an ethnic group
[10:00] that they will conduct themselves from
[10:02] now on as part of the leadership
[10:06] of the total South African population.
[10:12] For the right wing though, the result is
[10:14] a disaster. The more extreme groups are
[10:16] already threatening to take up arms, and
[10:19] the sides of President Clerk's majority
[10:21] have increased the chances of right-wing
[10:23] violence
[10:25] amongst the more moderate Conservatives
[10:27] at party headquarters today. There's
[10:29] also talk of a split. Some members of
[10:32] parliament are known to favor joining
[10:34] negotiations, but today the leadership
[10:37] said that was out of the question. I'm
[10:39] not going to any negotiation table where
[10:43] I'll have to beg the freedom of my
[10:46] people from Mr. Mandela or anyone else.
[10:49] >> The younger generation MPs, those who
[10:52] came into politics post the split with
[10:54] the National Party are the ones who are
[10:55] looking to negotiating and it's the
[10:57] older generation which is saying so far
[11:00] no further. And I think that must mean
[11:02] about half of the present MPs would be
[11:05] considering negotiating.
[11:07] President D Clerk emerges tonight with
[11:09] his hand strengthened by this referendum
[11:11] result. Whatever course the right wing
[11:14] now decides to take, it's clear the
[11:16] government enjoys the support of the
[11:18] majority of white South Africans. And
[11:20] it's a majority that's in favor of
[11:22] reform.
[11:24] >> A further perspective now from the South
[11:26] African ambassador to the United States,
[11:28] Harry Schwarz. I spoke with him this
[11:30] afternoon.
[11:32] Mr. Ambassador, welcome.
[11:34] >> Nice to be with you. How important is
[11:37] this referendum outcome?
[11:39] >> I think it's uh a very significant event
[11:42] in South Africa's history because it's
[11:43] really demonstrated that white South
[11:46] Africa wants to move towards a democracy
[11:49] and there's always been doubt cast on
[11:51] that both internally by the black
[11:53] community and also externally by the
[11:55] international community. So I think this
[11:57] has established now once and for all
[11:59] that in fact white South Africa wants to
[12:01] move towards a democracy. Did you have
[12:03] personal doubts yourself?
[12:05] >> I was worried uh and I was concerned. Uh
[12:07] I thought we would win, but I didn't
[12:10] think we'd win by as big a margin as we
[12:11] did.
[12:12] >> What's your analysis of why this the uh
[12:15] the yes vote won by such a large margin?
[12:18] >> I think that the reason is that there is
[12:20] actually no alternative to negotiation
[12:22] and to the achievement of a democracy.
[12:25] Uh the reality is that uh you cannot
[12:28] remain isolated. you cannot continue to
[12:30] practice apartate and you cannot go back
[12:32] to apartate. So therefore the choice
[12:35] really was a very stark one between
[12:37] people who want the status quo and know
[12:40] that it really can't continue and those
[12:42] who are realistic. Those who supported
[12:45] uh President Clerk and a yes vote said
[12:49] that a no vote would uh could trigger
[12:52] civil war, could trigger uh a return for
[12:55] South Africa to international sanctions
[12:58] and and all the rest. Were those fears
[13:00] justified? Well, I think there is uh a
[13:04] very considerable ground for believing
[13:07] and I think uh it's beyond question that
[13:09] the in fact that the black community
[13:12] would not take it lying down that there
[13:15] should be no change in South Africa. Uh
[13:18] after all the black community
[13:19] constitutes the majority. It's not the
[13:22] majority who voted here. It was a
[13:23] minority. And for a minority to hold up
[13:26] the democratic process in this time is
[13:28] just not practical, not possible. And
[13:31] secondly, as far as the international
[13:32] community is concerned, they have been
[13:34] told that we're making progress. Uh many
[13:37] people have in fact put themselves on
[13:39] the line and have in fact said yes, we
[13:41] will help you. We will remove sanctions.
[13:45] Now all those people would say now wait
[13:47] a minute. You in fact said you were
[13:50] going ahead and now you're going
[13:51] backwards. And I think there would have
[13:53] been action from the international
[13:54] community. The African National Congress
[13:57] and other black groups in South Africa
[13:59] objected to the very idea of this whites
[14:02] only referendum. Why did President Clerk
[14:05] think it was necessary?
[14:06] >> Well, I think uh I can understand their
[14:09] objection because it's not uh acceptable
[14:11] that one group of people are voting
[14:13] while you are voteless and it's your
[14:15] future that's being voted on. So I think
[14:17] that's very understandable. But
[14:18] president the cleric needed to establish
[14:20] that in fact there was a mandate for
[14:22] what he was doing from the very people
[14:24] who had elected him and that mandate was
[14:26] challenged that after he lost three
[14:29] bi-elections the conservative party said
[14:32] you do not have the support of the white
[14:34] people to do this. So therefore both at
[14:36] the negotiating table and in the
[14:38] international field his credibility was
[14:40] put into question. Now, the vote was
[14:44] almost 70% uh in favor of continuing
[14:47] these negotiations, but that still
[14:49] leaves a third over a million people,
[14:52] white people in South Africa, who are
[14:54] opposed to that. What happens to them
[14:56] now? What happens to their concerns?
[14:58] >> Well, I think the first thing one has to
[14:59] remember is that people voted no for a
[15:02] variety of reasons. Uh there are people
[15:04] who were concerned about the crime.
[15:06] They're people who concerned about the
[15:08] state of the economy. They're people who
[15:10] were fearful of the future which is
[15:12] understandable because they are moving
[15:14] into an unknown and one mustn't assume
[15:17] that all those people who voted no in
[15:21] fact would either take to arms or would
[15:24] resist. Uh I think most of them are
[15:26] going to end up saying let's take part
[15:27] in the negotiating process. And one of
[15:30] the difficulties I think that's existed
[15:32] has been that the Africana has been
[15:34] portrayed as a kind of stereotype as
[15:37] seen in the form of Mr. Tur Blanch of
[15:40] the Africana resistance movement. That
[15:42] is not the Africana. One of the things
[15:44] that this vote has demonstrated is that
[15:47] in fact the Africana has as a majority
[15:49] voted in favor of change because this
[15:52] majority wouldn't have been possible
[15:53] without Africana votes. So I think one
[15:56] has to look at it as a picture of the
[15:57] whole and I have a feeling that what
[15:59] will happen is we'll have a fringe
[16:01] extremist element that will still try to
[16:03] indulge in violence uh that will still
[16:06] threaten but that the majority of the
[16:08] white people even though they voted no
[16:11] uh will from that side come along with
[16:13] the negotiating process.
[16:14] >> You are not that concerned then about
[16:16] those white extremists who say never and
[16:19] they have promised to fight to the very
[16:21] end to prevent this from happening. You
[16:23] know, we've heard in Africa this word
[16:25] never so often. We heard it just north
[16:28] of us, never in our lifetime. And uh
[16:31] they will accept the reality of life.
[16:34] There will be
[16:34] >> in Rodishia, Zimbabwe.
[16:36] >> Correct. We had uh the in saying never
[16:39] in our lifetime. Well, it happened and
[16:41] it happened within the lifetime of the
[16:43] people concerned. So the word never is
[16:45] one that one should be very careful
[16:47] about using and uh I think people do use
[16:50] it in South Africa. But the reality is
[16:52] there will be some people who will not
[16:54] accept it. The very small minority there
[16:57] are fringe groups not only on the right
[16:59] in the white community and fringe groups
[17:00] on the left in the black community. So
[17:04] uh one must accept that they're fringe
[17:05] groups but the vast majority of South
[17:08] Africans of whatever color or race they
[17:10] are I think want to get together and
[17:12] want to solve this problem. Would it be
[17:15] correct to interpret this vote as uh the
[17:19] white minority or at least a majority of
[17:22] the white minority saying we are
[17:25] prepared for majority black rule of our
[17:28] country?
[17:29] >> I think they are prepared for a
[17:30] democratic rule. They want I think a
[17:33] non-racial constitution. That's what
[17:34] we're talking about. a constitution in
[17:37] which people will vote uh each one on
[17:39] equal footing but in which there'll be
[17:41] protection for minorities because we
[17:43] have many minorities in South Africa. We
[17:46] for instance have 11 different languages
[17:47] alone in our country. So minorities need
[17:51] to be protected. Uh we need a
[17:53] constitution in terms of which you have
[17:55] the kind of rights that you have under
[17:56] your constitution. So it's that kind of
[17:58] government that we're looking for in
[18:00] terms of which all people are treated
[18:01] equally and all have access to the
[18:03] courts and all have opportunity.
[18:06] >> But if the black majority uh ends up
[18:11] with an equal vote, does that not also
[18:13] mean there is going to be a black
[18:14] president and a black majority
[18:16] government of South Africa?
[18:18] >> Well, you see to me uh the color of the
[18:20] president is not important. What's
[18:21] important is whether he's a
[18:22] humanitarian, whether he's a democrat,
[18:24] whether he applies the right kind of
[18:26] policies, uh that he's not an autocrat.
[18:29] The color of the person is not important
[18:30] to me. And I think that's how South
[18:32] Africa is going to turn out to be that
[18:34] uh color is not going to be the issue.
[18:36] It's going to be values.
[18:38] The uh proapartid conservative party's
[18:41] leader said today after these results
[18:43] were announced, Mr. De, this is a quote,
[18:45] Mr. De Clerk won his referendum just
[18:47] like Gorbachoff won his. Gorbachoff is
[18:50] today out of power and Mr. de Clerk is
[18:53] negotiating his own government out of
[18:55] power and uh end quote. Is that correct?
[18:58] Was that was that analogy correct with
[19:00] G?
[19:00] >> Well, I think the analogy is uh quite
[19:02] different because in fact one of the
[19:04] things that's happened is that Mr. Clark
[19:07] has kept the support of his constituency
[19:09] uh which I think is what's vital in this
[19:11] kind of operation. Uh secondly, when he
[19:14] >> You mean the white uh
[19:16] >> well the white voter who originally
[19:18] elected him still supports him. What is
[19:20] also happening of course is that he's
[19:22] getting a fair amount of support quite a
[19:23] lot of support in the black community
[19:26] >> uh which I think is very significant and
[19:28] I think we have to bear in mind that
[19:30] when he Mr. Dr. Turnup talks about
[19:33] negotiating your
[19:34] >> that's the conservative party leader
[19:36] right talks about negotiating out of
[19:38] power the truth is that president said
[19:42] today that he's looking for power
[19:43] sharing he's looking for a new
[19:45] constitution in other words this is not
[19:47] a device on the part of dra to remain in
[19:50] power forever far from it
[19:52] >> so he is prepared uh to uh to step aside
[19:56] if and when the process requires it
[19:58] >> well the depends on the electorate I
[20:00] think he'll be a candidate he might win,
[20:02] he might lose. Mr. Mandela might win,
[20:04] might lose. I think in a non-racial
[20:06] constitution, uh, but anybody can win.
[20:09] And it's possible that a black majority
[20:12] might elect whites. It might be that
[20:14] whites will elect blacks. This is what
[20:16] we're hoping for, a non-racial
[20:18] situation.
[20:19] >> As a practical matter, uh, what this
[20:21] referendum means, the negotiations that
[20:23] are now underway between the government
[20:25] and the ANC and other black groups will
[20:27] continue the way they have been.
[20:29] Correct.
[20:30] >> Yes. And then can you give us any kind
[20:32] of timetable when uh an interim
[20:35] government might be formed and all that
[20:36] sort of thing or is it impossible to do?
[20:38] >> I think the next step is uh April uh the
[20:41] end of April we'll see a meeting of the
[20:44] group known as cadessa. That's the
[20:46] convention for democratics of Africa.
[20:48] That's where the 19 political parties
[20:50] are meeting together to formulate a new
[20:52] constitution and also to formulate the
[20:55] ideas for an interim government. So
[20:57] that's the next step [music] and I think
[20:59] after that meeting the steps towards an
[21:01] interim government or transitional
[21:03] government as it's sometimes called that
[21:06] is the next step that will take place
[21:08] happen fairly soon.
[21:09] >> I think fairly soon people are making
[21:11] different forecasts. Uh I know Mr.
[21:13] Mandela says by June uh I think it may
[21:16] take a little longer but uh it's coming
[21:18] fairly soon. Ambassador Schwarz, just in
[21:21] personal terms, uh you've been involved
[21:24] in uh in the politics of South Africa
[21:26] for 40 years as an as an opponent of
[21:28] apartheid. Did you did you think
[21:31] something like this would ever happen?
[21:33] >> Well, I was hoping it would happen and
[21:35] one has the confidence that when you
[21:36] were fighting that you would eventually
[21:38] get to this kind of stage. So, uh one
[21:41] always hoped and one always thought it
[21:43] would happen. uh what of course did take
[21:45] place is that there were many years of
[21:47] frustration and almost a feeling of
[21:49] helplessness but when president cla came
[21:51] along then suddenly the world changed
[21:54] and things moved very very rapidly and I
[21:56] think that is what has been rewarding
[21:58] and that's why the possibility of a
[22:01] reversal in this referendum was
[22:03] something which to me was just too
[22:05] ghastly to contemplate
[22:06] >> and of course as Nelson Mandela said
[22:08] today this is a terrific thing what
[22:11] happened at this referendum but as we
[22:13] speak. Apartheid still lives in South
[22:15] Africa.
[22:16] >> Well, aparttheid lives to the extent
[22:18] that we have got to negotiate a new
[22:20] constitution and we've got to see that
[22:22] everybody gets a vote and there will be
[22:24] one person, one vote in South Africa.
[22:26] It'll be some people believe in a
[22:28] federal constitution, some believe in a
[22:30] centrist constitution, but that's going
[22:32] to come about and that can't be done by
[22:35] Dark himself. That has to be done at
[22:38] Cadesa by the consensus of all the
[22:41] parties who are involved because nobody
[22:43] wants a constitution imposed upon them.
[22:45] They want to be part of the creation of
[22:47] a constitution
[22:48] >> and that's happening
[22:49] >> and that's going to happen. Yes,
[22:51] >> Mr. Ambassador. Thank you very much.
[22:52] >> Thank you.
[22:54] >> Still to come on the NewsHour tonight,
[22:56] Gergen and Shields plus three. But
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[29:00] >> We're about to rejoin the McNeel Lair
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[30:08] [music]
[30:10] This just in. Battle bruise on set of
[30:13] Gone with a Wind. [music] Behind
[30:15] schedule, over budget, and still no
[30:17] script. Clark Gable refuses to play his
[30:20] part. Leading lady Vivian Lee threatens
[30:23] to walk. Will wind ever [music] be
[30:25] finished? Or is this David O. Selnik's
[30:28] folly? Find out the making of a legend.
[30:32] Gone with the wind.
[30:34] >> It's where you belong. Saturday night at
[30:36] 8. [music]
[30:45] >> [music]
[30:51] [music]
[30:54] >> We turn now to campaign 92. Governor
[30:56] Bill Clinton and President Bush were the
[30:58] big winners in yesterday's presidential
[31:00] primaries in Michigan and Illinois.
[31:03] Clinton has now won 44% of the 2145
[31:07] delegates needed to secure the
[31:09] Democratic nomination. With yesterday's
[31:12] twin victories, the Associated Press
[31:14] puts Clinton's delegate totals at 947.
[31:18] Former Senator Songis has 430. Former
[31:21] Governor Brown 129 and 422 delegates are
[31:26] uncommitted. On the Republican side,
[31:29] President Bush would appear to have a
[31:30] virtual lock on the 115 delegates needed
[31:34] for renomination. Winning Illinois and
[31:37] Michigan gives Mr. Bush a total delegate
[31:40] count of 711 to Pat Buchanan's 46 and
[31:44] six uncommitted. To help us sort through
[31:47] these and other results, we are joined
[31:49] by Gergen and Shields plus three. That
[31:52] is David Gurgen, editor at large at US
[31:55] News and World Report and syndicated
[31:57] columnist Mark Shield. He joins us from
[32:00] Henderson, Nevada. Tonight, the plus
[32:02] three are Democratic pollster Peter
[32:04] Hart, Republican pollster Linda Deval,
[32:08] and Eddie Williams, head of the Joint
[32:10] Center for Political and Economic
[32:11] Studies, a research organization which
[32:14] focuses on black policy issues. Well,
[32:17] David, I'm going to start with you. Pat
[32:18] Buchanan said today, I think I have this
[32:20] right, only celestial intervention is
[32:22] going to prevent President Bush from
[32:24] getting this nomination. If that's the
[32:25] case, why is Pat Buchanan staying in the
[32:27] race?
[32:28] >> Well, there's no sign that celestial
[32:29] intervention is on the horizon either. I
[32:31] I I think he's staying in for a couple
[32:34] of reasons. He continues to be a magnet
[32:37] to draw George Bush to the right, and
[32:39] many conservatives will support him
[32:40] right through the election and indeed
[32:42] make him a factor in in the in the fall
[32:43] campaign in order to keep Bush to the
[32:45] right because the president has moved
[32:46] over. And secondly, I think that Patan
[32:49] wants to redefine conservatism for the
[32:51] future so that he might well be the
[32:52] nominee of the party in 1996. Both of
[32:54] those reasons I think are sufficient for
[32:56] him. And as long as he doesn't attack
[32:59] the president, I don't think he's doing
[33:00] much damage to him right now.
[33:02] >> Mark, do you want to add anything to
[33:03] that?
[33:04] >> Well, if he doesn't attack the
[33:05] president, Judy, he's not going to be
[33:06] covered. If he's not covered, then he
[33:08] might as well not be running. I think it
[33:09] becomes very difficult when you've
[33:11] contested the president in every state
[33:13] to say, "Well, I'm really going to go
[33:14] from here to California." because there
[33:17] just uh there just isn't the kind of
[33:19] oxygen which is a media coverage that an
[33:22] insurgent campaign needs to survive. I
[33:25] mean the first question asked to Pat
[33:26] Buchanan will be I thought you were out
[33:28] of the race. What are you doing? He has
[33:30] to explain what he's doing at this
[33:32] point. I think it becomes increasingly
[33:33] difficult from this point forward.
[33:35] >> Linda Deval, any other thoughts on it?
[33:37] >> I think Mark makes a good point. uh the
[33:39] longer that the candidate stays in the
[33:40] race without being controversial uh the
[33:43] more he loses his uh cache if you will
[33:45] and I think the key thing that he needs
[33:47] to worry about is how does he go about
[33:48] the process of getting what he wants
[33:50] most at the convention and positioning
[33:52] himself for 1996 and I don't think he
[33:54] sorted that out yet. What about I is the
[33:57] fact, David, that that uh the president
[34:00] is losing or lost a third of the
[34:02] Republican voters in Michigan, what
[34:03] about a quarter of the voters,
[34:05] Republican voters in Illinois? Is that
[34:07] something that he needs to worry about
[34:08] at this point?
[34:09] >> Well, you know, it's interesting. It's
[34:10] all in the optics and and particularly
[34:12] the optics of the press. At the
[34:13] beginning of this campaign, we looked
[34:14] upon, you know, 37% vote for for Pat
[34:17] Buchanan in New Hampshire as a major
[34:18] victory for Buchanan. Now, when he gets
[34:20] 25 or 30%, we see as a major victory for
[34:22] Bush. So, I think it's partly what we
[34:25] create to be honest with you. I there's
[34:27] still a a protest vote out there uh that
[34:30] it's bigger than than one would have
[34:32] imagined. I do think it it it it's
[34:34] trouble for the president in the fall
[34:35] unless the economy comes back. My
[34:37] expectation is we'll see some modest
[34:39] recovery here in the next few months.
[34:40] >> Peter Hart,
[34:41] >> well, there's a sense that uh George
[34:43] Bush needed to to accomplish something
[34:46] in this campaign. He's won tactically.
[34:48] That's all he's done. I mean, he's run
[34:50] the negative ads against Pat Buchanan.
[34:53] shows him driving a Mercedes and saying,
[34:55] "Come home, America." It doesn't work
[34:57] for Pat Buchanan. But the difficulty is
[34:59] George Bush ends up without a message,
[35:02] without moving his campaign forward. So,
[35:05] he's getting the 75%, but I call it a
[35:07] joyless 75%. a joyless 75%. [laughter]
[35:12] >> Eddie Williams, is is President Bush any
[35:15] weaker as a result? How much weaker? Let
[35:17] me put it this way. Is he as a result of
[35:20] Pat Buchanan having taken shots at him
[35:22] for the last three months?
[35:24] >> I I think Pat is taking BB shots and
[35:26] they're not really hurting that much,
[35:28] but they all make little dents and
[35:30] they're little dents that I think the
[35:31] Democrats would hope to seize upon in uh
[35:34] in in November. I would say that if Pab
[35:36] Buchanan had a rose garden, this would
[35:38] be a great time for him to go and confer
[35:40] with himself on what he wants to do and
[35:42] how he plans to get there.
[35:43] >> Mark, how badly do you think the
[35:45] president is nicked as a result of all
[35:47] this?
[35:48] >> Well, I think I think Peter is is
[35:49] absolutely right, Judy, that George Bush
[35:51] has beaten Pat Buchanan, but he hasn't
[35:54] addressed what George Bush's basic
[35:55] problem is. Has there been a wakeup
[35:57] call? Yes. Has this campaign been
[35:59] through a spring training shakeddown?
[36:01] Yes. But uh we still have no greater
[36:03] idea why George Bush wants to be
[36:05] president other than the case he's made
[36:06] that Pat Buchanan is is inconsistent or
[36:09] hypocritical on his espousal of uh
[36:12] protectionist or nationalist trade
[36:14] policies and at the same time driving a
[36:16] Mercedes.
[36:16] >> You do you agree with that Linda Deval?
[36:18] Well, I would say initially the
[36:20] president was nicked a little bit, but
[36:21] since then you've seen in the exip
[36:22] polling data that his job approval
[36:24] rating has steadily increased number one
[36:26] to about a a 2 to1 margin. But secondly,
[36:28] what's happened on the Democrat side has
[36:30] really overshadowed what potential
[36:32] problems the president might have. And
[36:34] unfortunately for the Democrats, I don't
[36:35] think they've been able to maximize the
[36:37] vulnerability that might have existed
[36:39] because of the fact that this Democrat
[36:41] primary has actually become a little bit
[36:42] more engaged with the emergence of Jerry
[36:44] Brown than I think many people had
[36:45] anticipated.
[36:46] >> What are you saying? that there's been
[36:47] more attention paid to the Democrats and
[36:49] that's helped the president. Is that
[36:50] what you're saying?
[36:51] >> Yes. I'm saying that the tussle on the
[36:52] other side and the fact that many people
[36:53] feel that uh that many Democrat leaders
[36:56] are still somewhat uncomfortable with
[36:57] Bill Clinton means that there has been
[36:59] undue scrutiny on that side and it has
[37:01] not just been focused on the fact that
[37:03] President Bush might have some problems
[37:04] and where is he going next. I mean both
[37:06] Mark and Peter are absolutely right. The
[37:08] key thing that the Bush White House
[37:09] needs to address is what is the future
[37:10] direction of this presidency and they
[37:12] haven't done that yet. But that has not
[37:13] received the prominent attention that it
[37:15] might have otherwise if the Democrats
[37:16] side was resolved. You agree with that,
[37:18] David?
[37:18] >> Yeah.
[37:19] >> You don't want anyone that was so good,
[37:21] you're not going to say anything else.
[37:22] [laughter]
[37:22] >> What else did he have to improve upon
[37:24] her?
[37:25] >> Peter.
[37:25] >> Uh, no. Linda's Linda's right except for
[37:28] one problem. The problem is for George
[37:31] Bush is he's looking at a tactical race.
[37:34] And if they think that they're going to
[37:36] get reelected in the White House just by
[37:38] an anti- campaign, I think he's
[37:40] misreading 1992. I think he has to stand
[37:43] for something. He has to provide a
[37:45] vision of where he's going to take the
[37:47] country.
[37:47] >> All right. What about the Clinton point
[37:49] though? This business about the
[37:50] vulnerability. We keep hearing the other
[37:53] shoe or whatever you want to call it,
[37:54] the other high heel. Is that a real
[37:56] problem for Bill Clinton today?
[37:58] >> Well, I guess I guess the real problem
[38:00] is if that's what the Republicans are
[38:02] banking on, that really isn't much of a
[38:05] campaign strategy, is it? I mean, it
[38:07] seems to me that you've got to give Bill
[38:09] Clinton a tremendous amount of credit
[38:11] for what he was able to accomplish
[38:12] yesterday. He's now gone from south to
[38:15] north and he's won big races and he's
[38:17] won them well. He's persevered. He's
[38:20] shown tremendous character, internal
[38:22] fortitude, and more importantly than
[38:23] that, he's shown that he has a message
[38:25] and a message that works. So, he
[38:27] understands the electorate and he's out
[38:29] there and he's doing the right thing.
[38:31] I'd say give Bill Clinton tremendous
[38:33] credit. He's done it right. He's done it
[38:35] well. And the first 15 days in March are
[38:38] as good as any 15 days anybody could
[38:40] have.
[38:41] >> Eddie Williams, uh, what is it that Bill
[38:44] Clinton has put together that uh, you
[38:47] know, the the the the word on in the
[38:49] wires and and the newspapers today is
[38:51] that this is virtually impossible to
[38:54] stop him now from getting the
[38:55] nomination. Well, I don't know whether
[38:57] it's impossible or not, but he does, as
[38:59] Peter said, uh, have a very formidable
[39:01] campaign, and I think it would be a
[39:02] mistake for anyone to wait for him to
[39:04] shoot himself in the foot. After New
[39:06] Hampshire, he declared himself as the
[39:07] comeback kid, and it seems to me he has
[39:09] lived up to that uh to that billing. Uh,
[39:12] he's a fighter, he's articulate, he is
[39:14] bright. Uh, he is very fast on his on
[39:17] his feet. He is able to take adversity
[39:19] and turn it into an asset. Witness the
[39:22] uh the hassle over over his wife. I
[39:24] mean, he virtually put Jerry Brown on
[39:26] the defensive on that one by accusing
[39:28] him of of uh uh castigating his his wife
[39:32] and he got into the whole gender issue.
[39:34] Uh I think these are some reasons why it
[39:36] will not be easy to cast him out and
[39:37] unlike Dukakus, I think what uh
[39:40] President Bush will find in the fall in
[39:42] the election is that here is a here is a
[39:44] fighter who here is a very strong
[39:46] counterpuncher.
[39:47] >> How much Mark, how much does does Bill
[39:50] Clinton have to worry at this point
[39:51] about either Jerry Brown or Paul SA?
[39:54] Well, he has to worry uh Judy in two
[39:56] respects. I I think that uh the previous
[39:59] observations are valid that this is
[40:01] somebody after all has won 10 campaigns
[40:02] in the past two weeks. So the argument
[40:04] that's been used against him that he's
[40:06] unelectable becomes increasingly
[40:08] difficult to make especially by those
[40:10] candidates he's beating by a 2 to1
[40:12] margin in state after state week after
[40:14] week. But I think Bill Clinton does have
[40:16] a task right now and and a very
[40:18] difficult task and that is to lower the
[40:21] anxiety level among many Democrats and
[40:23] to heighten the comfort level uh among
[40:26] Democrats and and being quite frank
[40:28] about it. There are still reservations
[40:30] about him. The very fact that people
[40:31] talk in terms of something else
[40:33] happening that that Jerry Brown talks
[40:35] about a a scandal a week or whatever.
[40:38] The idea is Bill Clinton plays wonderful
[40:40] defense and he can take a punch. Has
[40:42] been put, we always use the sports page
[40:45] metaphor, but uh you don't want your
[40:47] candidate having to slip punches and get
[40:49] up off the off the deck. Uh you want to
[40:51] be able to score points, especially when
[40:53] he's trying to do something that's only
[40:54] been done three times in this century,
[40:56] and that's to beat an incumbent
[40:57] president.
[40:58] >> And David, uh uh does it hurt Bill
[41:01] Clinton that Jerry Brown is apparently,
[41:03] he was just out there two days ago
[41:04] talking about the scandal a week, I
[41:06] guess as recently as yesterday. If he
[41:07] keeps this up, what does that do to the
[41:10] Democrats?
[41:11] >> Well, the conventional wisdom is that
[41:13] that Jerry Brown is a papyan on the
[41:15] Democratic side, he'll keep drawing
[41:17] blood from from Bill Clinton. I I call
[41:19] the contrarian view, and that is the
[41:21] longer this race goes on, the more it
[41:23] helps Bill Clinton because I think when
[41:24] he goes out and wins races two to one,
[41:27] and I think that margin may increase in
[41:28] some future races, it will make him look
[41:30] more electable. I think he looks more
[41:32] electable this week than he did two
[41:33] weeks ago because he's he's racked up
[41:35] these victories. So to have a couple of
[41:37] the Songus and Brown stay in as long as
[41:39] nothing, you know, as long as there's no
[41:40] more revelations. I think he builds
[41:41] momentum, which is good for him. You
[41:43] know, as a colleague put it to me, you
[41:45] know, we may be asking the wrong
[41:46] questions, not whether he's electable,
[41:47] but whether he's thinkable, and he's,
[41:49] [clears throat] you know, he's taken all
[41:50] these punches. I think he's gained
[41:52] support from people who are getting
[41:53] sympathetic to the fact he takes a
[41:55] punch, gets back up off the deck, and is
[41:57] a strong candidate. It has not
[41:58] eliminated all the doubts. The number of
[42:00] people on the Democratic side who are
[42:01] saying they they would like somebody
[42:02] else in the race is going up in these
[42:04] primaries. It's gone up from 29%. in New
[42:05] Hampshire to over 50% yesterday. So,
[42:07] it's it's not over for him, but he has
[42:09] put together a strong coalition of
[42:11] workingclass whites and blacks, and you
[42:13] have to give him credit for that.
[42:15] >> All right, we want to move on just a
[42:16] moment. It wasn't all presidential
[42:18] politics yesterday. There were some
[42:19] upsets in Illinois in congressional
[42:21] primary races as well. The biggest
[42:24] surprise of the night was the defeat of
[42:25] two-time Senator Alan Dixon by Carol
[42:28] Mosley Brawn. She is the Cook County
[42:31] Recorder of deeds and she is seeking to
[42:33] be the first black woman elected to the
[42:35] US Senate. When they said it couldn't be
[42:38] done and you said, "Oh, yes it can.
[42:42] Oh, yes it can."
[42:49] When you told them, you said, "We get
[42:51] it. We know how to do this and we're
[42:54] doing the right thing." You went out all
[42:56] over the state.
[42:59] all over the state
[43:01] to take the message forward that this
[43:04] democracy is alive and well and ordinary
[43:06] people can have a voice with no money.
[43:10] With no money,
[43:15] just a lot of a lot of hard work and
[43:19] dedication and commitment and devotion
[43:22] and staying with the plan. We started on
[43:26] a track. We stayed positive. We talked
[43:28] to the people here in the heart about
[43:32] what mattered for real, not just sound
[43:34] bites, but about the real issues. We are
[43:37] going to give the Senate a healthy dose
[43:39] of democracy and we are going to make
[43:41] history in November. Thank you. Thank
[43:43] you so much. Thank you. Thank you.
[43:47] >> All right. Mark Seals out of Nevada. Was
[43:49] it hard work and staying positive that
[43:51] won this for Carol Braun? Well, I think
[43:54] I I I think Carol Braun has has poses
[43:57] today in her victory an enormous threat
[43:59] to a Washington industry that's under
[44:01] siege, and that is a political
[44:02] consultant. I mean, this is somebody
[44:04] actually who who won on a shoestring uh
[44:06] against one candidate, an insurgent who
[44:08] spent 4.3 million of his own money, who
[44:11] actually did help by softening up uh
[44:13] Senator Dixon. But I think David had
[44:15] talked about it earlier in terms of
[44:16] George Bush. I think it's true and and
[44:19] and Carol Brown's victory, I think,
[44:21] symbolize it. and that is George Bush
[44:23] was elected as a candidate of the status
[44:25] quo as an inbox president in 1992. The
[44:28] status quo is unacceptable. Anybody who
[44:31] tries to run as the status quo and I
[44:33] think Alan Dixon after a 43-year career
[44:35] in a very gracious concession made last
[44:37] night is seen as a symbol of the status
[44:40] quo. And I think anybody who is not seen
[44:42] as an agent of change and real change in
[44:44] 1992 faces early retirement.
[44:47] >> Linda Deval, would you see it the same
[44:49] way?
[44:49] >> I would have to agree with Mark. I mean,
[44:51] what you saw from the clip is she is
[44:52] spunky and vivacious. But more
[44:54] importantly, I think uh this
[44:55] anti-incumbency feeling we we saw in our
[44:57] survey data was very pronounced as as
[44:59] early as a year ago. It used to be
[45:01] though that the the snail darter was the
[45:02] most prominent on the endangered species
[45:04] list. Now, I think it's any incumbent
[45:05] member of Congress and if they don't get
[45:07] the message, they better start buying
[45:08] their ashtrays now because they won't
[45:09] get them next year. Peter Hart, what
[45:12] about uh the the reports were that she
[45:14] decid she said she decided to get in
[45:16] after uh Dixon voted against Clarence
[45:19] Thomas in his Supreme Court confirmation
[45:21] hearing. Was that a factor in all?
[45:22] >> I'm sure it was a factor, but the big
[45:24] factor is look, people are unhappy,
[45:27] they're angry, and they're going to vote
[45:29] change. Unless you have the ability to
[45:32] say this is what I stand for, and this
[45:34] is I'm part of that change, you're in
[45:37] trouble. And for every single incumbent
[45:39] out there that's running for reelection,
[45:41] they better have gotten the message
[45:42] yesterday because they're going to get
[45:44] it sent to them. And I'll bet you one
[45:46] thing this year, you'll see very few
[45:48] billboards that'll say reelect on them.
[45:51] Nobody will be putting that there.
[45:53] >> Eddie Williams, were there any other
[45:55] factors you think in her victory?
[45:57] >> Well, Judy, I clearly there was a lot of
[46:00] disillusionment and I suppose we could
[46:01] call that anti-incumbent. I'm I'm a
[46:04] little concerned about that expression
[46:05] because it tends to imply that what is
[46:08] out there is some non-discriminating
[46:10] massive force against all incumbents. I
[46:12] don't think that is true. I think
[46:13] there's a tremendous amount of
[46:14] discrimination among the with within the
[46:16] electorate. You take Carol Braun for
[46:18] example. I think it was more than just
[46:20] anti-incumbent. Uh there are some
[46:22] factors that we know. For example, that
[46:24] Mr. Senator Dixon voting record had
[46:27] increasingly grown outside of the
[46:28] mainstream of the Democrats in Illinois,
[46:30] particularly in Chicago. He certainly
[46:32] got caught on the wrong side of the
[46:34] Clarence Thomas uh issue and therefore
[46:37] there were a lot of women mobilized in
[46:38] behalf of Carol Braun for that including
[46:41] I understand a significant number of
[46:42] Republican women uh crossovers. Uh she
[46:46] is an experienced politician having been
[46:48] in the state house uh and in her current
[46:50] position of the recorder of deeds. So I
[46:52] think that there were some some positive
[46:54] factors uh more than just a one issue on
[46:58] her part and more than just an
[46:59] anti-incumbent feeling. Republican women
[47:02] crossovers. David, is that a problem for
[47:04] the Republican candidate uh Rich
[47:06] Williamson in the fall? He's he's the
[47:07] fellow who's running against her.
[47:09] >> It could be. I think he's going to be a
[47:10] stronger candidate than people
[47:11] understand. He's he's rather unknown
[47:13] right now in politics. I've known Rich
[47:14] and worked with him a few years ago. And
[47:16] uh I think he'll be I think it'll be an
[47:17] interesting and very tough race. But to
[47:19] go back to something Peter said, I I
[47:20] there won't be any bumper stickers this
[47:22] year of stay the course, which was the
[47:24] old slogan of the 80s. And I I think
[47:26] even George Bush last night was was
[47:28] running as a candidate of change when he
[47:30] put out a statement. You remember that?
[47:31] So you got both Clinton and Bush running
[47:33] that. But this race was as important to
[47:36] Democrats as the Thornberg loss was to
[47:39] Republicans.
[47:40] >> That was the Senate Republican
[47:41] >> back in Pennsylvania this last fall when
[47:43] an establishment Republican they thought
[47:45] everybody thought would win lost. Now
[47:47] you've got an establishment Democrat
[47:49] losing. No one is safe. this this
[47:51] election in Illinois Senate was hit the
[47:54] hit Capitol Hill like a title wave. All
[47:55] the Democratic senators as well as the
[47:57] Republican senators know you have to
[47:59] scramble now. You have to represent
[48:00] change. I think it's a very healthy day
[48:02] for democracy. You know, Washington
[48:04] hasn't been working and when voters
[48:05] stand up and respond and start throwing
[48:07] people out. That's what's going to bring
[48:08] real change in Washington.
[48:09] >> Well, how much of it was specifically
[48:11] marked the check bouncing uh scandal? We
[48:13] had uh the the congressman Charles
[48:15] Hayes. We in fact we profiled that race
[48:17] last night on the NewsHour who had
[48:19] bounced what he said 716 checks and we
[48:22] we uh Elizabeth Brackett interviewed a
[48:24] voter uh there in Chicago uh who said I
[48:28] just didn't like the way he dealt with
[48:29] that thing. He seemed too arrogant. Was
[48:31] it the way members of Congress are
[48:33] responding to this or just the fact that
[48:35] they're involved? You think
[48:37] >> I I think it is the involvement, Judy.
[48:39] It's fascinating to watch how the
[48:40] members try to deal with it. Uh I I
[48:42] think uh the the poet Chesteran once
[48:44] said that psychoanalysis was confession
[48:46] without absolution. You're hearing a lot
[48:48] of you're hearing a lot of confession
[48:49] but that voters are giving very little
[48:50] absolution and forgiveness about about
[48:53] the check cashing because it is
[48:54] something that people can associate and
[48:56] identify from their own life and it is
[48:58] something further that just represents
[49:00] that that sense of remoteness of of
[49:02] arrogance of power and perks uh that
[49:05] people increasingly associate with their
[49:07] elected representatives in Washington
[49:09] both executive and legislative.
[49:10] >> Linda Dval, how worried should
[49:12] Republican incumbents be this fall?
[49:15] Well, as I said earlier, any incumbent
[49:17] has got to be on red alert right now.
[49:18] But secondly, I think, you know, the
[49:20] numbers are such that there are more
[49:21] Democratic incumbents than there more
[49:22] Democratic incumbents who have been in
[49:24] office a longer period of time. So,
[49:25] there is some safety in that. But
[49:27] nonetheless, I think Republicans who
[49:29] have been inadvertently caught up in
[49:30] this net as uh many have and as
[49:33] Secretary Cheney alluded to last night,
[49:34] I think have to square with the voters
[49:36] very uh very completely and very early
[49:38] on. And the good news about this episode
[49:40] is there's plenty of time for the voters
[49:41] to assimilate this information. I say
[49:43] full disclosure, let the members explain
[49:45] their own sit situation and the
[49:48] electorate I think will be smart enough
[49:49] to make a judgment based on the people
[49:50] that they know whether they want them in
[49:52] or out.
[49:53] >> Uh uh Eddie Williams, do you agree that
[49:55] full disclosure, get it out early and
[49:57] the issues uh pretty much over and done
[50:00] with then?
[50:01] >> Well, I I think the whole issue this
[50:03] issue about check bouncing is what I
[50:04] would call a kicker issue. By that I
[50:07] mean if there are some other problems
[50:08] there with respect to the candidate,
[50:10] this certainly would be the kicker to
[50:11] bring him to bring him down. You take
[50:13] Charlie Hayes for example, I guess I'm
[50:15] not persuaded that the check bouncing
[50:17] issue alone would have done the trick in
[50:20] his case. There were some other other
[50:21] factors. I think some of the electorates
[50:23] had grown a little concerned about his
[50:25] representation of the district. I think
[50:27] there may have been some other issues
[50:28] that they were concerned about and that
[50:30] perhaps the ke the check uh issue was
[50:32] the straw that broke the camel's back.
[50:34] Peter Hart, can you add anything to
[50:36] >> Well, the one important thing is I think
[50:39] George Bush was salivating thinking that
[50:41] it was going to be a Republican wedge
[50:43] against the Democrats. I think it's
[50:45] against government and I think the
[50:46] difficulty [music] is it's going to work
[50:48] as much against George Bush as it is
[50:50] going to work against the incumbent
[50:52] Congress people. They're unhappy with
[50:55] what's going on. That's the message. And
[50:57] I think that Eddie Williams is right.
[50:59] It's the kicker issue if there are other
[51:01] things there. What about Linda Deval's
[51:02] point that though that that if they get
[51:04] it if they do the full confession number
[51:06] early on that they can sort of in I
[51:09] inoculate themselves again
[51:11] >> I'm not sure that they'll totally
[51:13] inoculate themselves. I think
[51:15] >> by the way that's my word not hers
[51:17] >> I may have gone further than Linda
[51:18] intended.
[51:19] >> Fair enough. I've got it. Uh but I don't
[51:22] think you can totally inoculate yourself
[51:24] if you have 900 bounce checks. I think
[51:26] you're going to find that it unscrews a
[51:28] congressman. David, is this I mean
[51:31] should incumbents be really sweating it
[51:33] out?
[51:33] >> Yes, absolutely. And it's good. It's you
[51:36] know we just had this story on about
[51:37] South Africa and that was where the
[51:39] phrase the winds of change are blowing
[51:40] all originated. Remember back in the 50s
[51:42] with Anthony Eden and now the winds of
[51:44] change are blowing here and it's a
[51:46] healthy thing and it's it's going to
[51:48] force Washington to come to grips even
[51:49] if some incumbents don't get thrown out.
[51:51] It's going to force Washington to do
[51:52] things are not doing that. Reform
[51:54] campaign finance laws. They've been
[51:56] refusing to do that
[51:57] >> because for you said some weren't there.
[51:58] For example, the longtime Ways and Means
[52:00] chairman Dan Rostinowski did not go down
[52:03] to defeat.
[52:04] >> That's right. But but this charade
[52:05] that's been going on about about
[52:07] stimulating the economy, both sides now,
[52:08] the White House and the executive and
[52:10] the congressional branch are posturing
[52:12] over over economic reform and trying to
[52:14] help the economy. They're both looking
[52:15] for a veto because they want to get
[52:16] something out of it politically. You
[52:18] know, the the the deficits that people
[52:19] are walking away from and just sort of
[52:21] holding their nose and walking away from
[52:22] and abandoning any fiscal discipline in
[52:24] this country. I think all those issues
[52:25] are going to get a real shove now. And
[52:27] that's terrific. That's great news for
[52:28] the country.
[52:29] >> Winds of change, Mark Shield, is that
[52:31] what it is?
[52:32] >> I think the winds of change are are
[52:33] certainly blowing and and anybody who
[52:35] cares about democracy anywhere in the in
[52:36] the uh in the world of the planet has to
[52:39] be cheered and excited and encouraged by
[52:42] South Africa. But if you're talking
[52:43] about inoculation on the on the check
[52:45] cashing, uh when you write 900 bad
[52:48] checks, you're going to the inoculation,
[52:50] you're going to look like a porcupine.
[52:51] You're going to have to have so many
[52:52] needles in you. It's going to be beyond
[52:54] Judy uh you know masochism of the first
[52:57] order. I I think that in certain states
[52:59] my native state of Massachusetts has
[53:01] been historically more tolerant of of of
[53:04] the pecadillos of their elected office
[53:06] holders. States like Minnesota I don't
[53:08] think that's the case. States that have
[53:09] a strong reform-minded tradition in the
[53:12] state and I mean no disservice to my my
[53:14] native state but where where you know
[53:16] that is that is really valued. I think
[53:18] check writing there, bad check writing
[53:20] could really hurt and and probably doom
[53:22] a political career.
[53:24] >> Well, gentlemen, we thank you all and
[53:25] Linda Deval once again. Thank you all
[53:27] for being with us
[53:31] [music]
[53:36] again. The major stories of [music] this
[53:38] Wednesday. White South Africans voted
[53:40] overwhelmingly to negotiate with blacks
[53:42] for an end to white minority rule. and
[53:45] voters in Michigan and Illinois gave
[53:47] large margins of victory to President
[53:49] Bush and Bill Clinton and yesterday's
[53:51] presidential primaries. Two-term
[53:53] Democratic Senator Alan Dixon was
[53:55] defeated for reelection. Good night,
[53:57] Judy.
[53:57] >> Good night, Jim. That's our NewsHour for
[53:59] tonight. We'll be back tomorrow night.
[54:01] I'm Judy Woodruff. Thank you and good
[54:02] night.
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