MSNBC - Election Night 2006 - 7 p.m. (E)

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[0:27] Decision 2006. Good evening again from

[0:29] MSNBC headquarters. I'm Keith Overberman

[0:31] >> and I'm Chris Matthews. [music] Polls

[0:32] are now closed in six states. Virginia,

[0:34] Vermont, Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, and

[0:36] South Carolina. Let's look at the first

[0:38] results of the night.

[0:43] In Virginia, it's too early to call in

[0:46] that hot Senate race there between

[0:47] George Allen, the incumbent, and the

[0:49] challenger Jim Webb. Let's take a look

[0:52] at these. That's Virginia there. That's

[0:53] Jim Webb. Too early to call in that US

[0:56] Senate race.

[1:00] In Vermont, we've got Bernard Sanders,

[1:02] who's running as an independent. He is a

[1:04] self-described socialist. He has been

[1:07] declared the winner in our projections.

[1:11] In Indiana, Richard Luger, the chairman

[1:13] of the Senate Foreign Relations

[1:14] Committee, is our projected winner in

[1:16] the state of Indiana, the Hooser State.

[1:18] He was really unopposed by a Democrat.

[1:20] That's no surprise at all. But among the

[1:22] early returns, we've got now Virginia

[1:25] and of course uh Vermont and Indiana

[1:28] decided now two of those decided

[1:30] Virginia which is going to be one of the

[1:31] big ones tonight has yet to be decided

[1:34] too early to call.

[1:35] >> I'm I'm thinking we're going to be

[1:37] repeating that phrase for a little while

[1:38] yet. Chris, and in the interim, let's go

[1:41] to Virginia. The Senate race between

[1:43] George Allen and Jim Webb. Too early to

[1:45] call. Not too early to call on MSNBC's

[1:48] David Schuster. Back with us now from

[1:49] Rep Republican headquarters in Richmond.

[1:51] David, good evening again.

[1:53] >> Keith, good evening to you. The polls of

[1:55] course are now officially closed, but

[1:57] officials, the state officials say that

[1:59] they will remain open for people who are

[2:00] in line. As far as the campaigns are

[2:03] concerned, both campaigns agree that we

[2:05] should have a pretty good idea tonight

[2:06] by about 9:00. The way the numbers start

[2:09] coming in here in Virginia is the

[2:11] smaller districts in South Virginia,

[2:13] western part of the state, those will

[2:15] report first. And what you'll end up

[2:17] seeing is the big the big districts,

[2:19] Northern Virginia, that will come up

[2:21] last. That led to a fascinating and an

[2:23] interesting plea tonight from Democrats

[2:25] who fearful of what the media did with

[2:27] Florida in 2000 say don't be surprised

[2:29] if when the first precincts start

[2:31] reporting. They show George Allen with a

[2:33] big lead because you're going to hear

[2:34] from some of these more rural precincts

[2:36] first and then at the end of the night

[2:39] once Arlington County, Fairfax County

[2:41] report their massive results, that's

[2:43] when the tide will turn back to Jim Web.

[2:45] The question is, of course, will Web be

[2:48] able to make up enough votes in Northern

[2:49] Virginia in order to beat the Republican

[2:52] incumbent uh Republican incumbent George

[2:56] I'm sorry. The Republic

[3:00] >> That's right. I'm sorry. I'm just having

[3:02] a little technical problem here. But in

[3:03] any case, uh the big story of course

[3:05] today uh is the big story has been Iraq.

[3:08] All of the polling has suggested for

[3:09] several days and all of the all of the

[3:11] uh the campaign staffers suggest that

[3:13] Iraq is the number one issue. George

[3:15] Allen, the Republican incumbent, of

[3:16] course, he suggested that the troops

[3:18] ought to stay in Iraq. Jim Webb used to

[3:21] was wearing his son's combat boots as

[3:23] some as a is in the Marines and is

[3:25] serving in Iraq. He has said repeatedly

[3:26] and has gotten the message out that the

[3:28] troops need to start coming home. What

[3:30] was so interesting about the end of this

[3:31] race, Keith, is that there was George

[3:33] Allen last night on local television

[3:35] across the state of Virginia appearing

[3:37] with John Warner, the senior senator

[3:39] from Virginia who is beloved across the

[3:41] state. And George Allen apologized, he

[3:43] said, for taking issues away from the

[3:45] issues that he wanted to talk about.

[3:47] That was the reference, of course, to

[3:48] Maka and the way he handled his family's

[3:50] heritage. And that raised some eyebrows

[3:52] with Republicans who are wondering,

[3:54] well, why is it that George Allen was

[3:55] making that kind of statement the final

[3:57] night before the election? But in any

[3:59] case, we're here at Allen headquarters

[4:01] and the Allen campaign. Um, a little bit

[4:03] tense as you might imagine, but tense as

[4:05] well over at web head web headquarters

[4:07] in Northern Virginia. case

[4:09] >> David Schustster at Allen headquarters

[4:11] in Richmond. John Warner also saying

[4:13] last night, "If you support John Warner,

[4:15] vote for George Allen." Now, let's go to

[4:17] Maryland in the Senate race between the

[4:18] Baltimore Congressman Ben Carden and

[4:20] Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael

[4:22] Steele. This one has been an

[4:23] extraordinary race for the last month.

[4:25] The polls have swung wildly back and

[4:26] forth. NBC's Kevin Cork is at Steel

[4:28] headquarters in Bowie, Maryland, and he

[4:30] joins us now from there. Kevin, good

[4:32] evening.

[4:33] >> Keith, good evening to you. You're right

[4:34] about those polls. Keep in mind back on

[4:36] the uh Sunday, a couple Sundays ago, you

[4:38] saw Cardon and Steel going toe-to-toe on

[4:41] NBC's Meet the Press with Tim Russard.

[4:43] That very same day, the Washington Post

[4:45] came out with a poll that showed Cardon

[4:47] with a double-digit lead, 12 points.

[4:48] Well, in the days leading up to the

[4:50] election, that lead is now down to three

[4:51] points. A statistical dead heat inside

[4:54] the margin of error. And so, we just

[4:56] don't know how this is going to turn

[4:57] out. But what's interesting in this one,

[4:58] Keith, is actually three things. Number

[5:00] one, race is going to be a big factor in

[5:02] this race. No matter who you talk to, it

[5:04] is an underlying story here. Also, how

[5:06] well the campaigns have been run. By all

[5:08] accounts, uh the seal campaign, frankly,

[5:11] has been more smoothly run than the

[5:12] Cardan campaign. And then you also have

[5:14] the issue of the ads. How well did they

[5:17] brand the individuals? This could be

[5:19] critical. But first and foremost, I

[5:20] think race is going to play a part in

[5:22] this particular contest. It has been an

[5:24] underlying story throughout. And here's

[5:26] the question. Is a Republican who is

[5:28] African-American going to be successful

[5:30] enough within the African American

[5:32] community to somehow overcome the fact

[5:35] that Democrats outnumber Republicans 2

[5:37] to one in this very blue of blue states.

[5:40] That's going to be the question we'll be

[5:41] looking for answers for tonight, Keith.

[5:43] >> Kevin Cork at Steel headquarters in

[5:45] Maryland with the latest on the Cardon

[5:47] Steel senatorial race. Great. Thanks.

[5:49] >> Let's go right now to our panel that's

[5:51] been sitting waiting and watching these

[5:52] numbers as they come in. Andrea Mitchell

[5:54] of NBC, MSNBC's Joe Scarbor, the

[5:57] Washington Post columnist Eugene

[5:58] Robinson, and Newsweek's Howard Feman

[6:00] who's also an NBC News political

[6:02] analyst. Howard, you start here tonight

[6:05] looking at all that we've seen so far,

[6:06] which isn't much. We've seen exit

[6:08] polling we've gotten from Keith, which

[6:10] shows people angry about the war, angry

[6:12] about corruption, uh, nationalizing the

[6:15] election, people thinking in national

[6:16] terms rather than local terms. I can't

[6:19] spot a single pro pro-reublican aspect

[6:21] to all those early findings.

[6:24] >> I can't either, Chris. And I'd like to

[6:25] turn the telescope around to talk about

[6:27] some people I heard from from Bucks

[6:29] County outside of Philadelphia. They

[6:31] called me and said what the voters are

[6:33] talking about there is not the war, but

[6:35] corruption, the issue of changing the

[6:37] culture in Washington. And if you think

[6:39] about it, that's what the voters can

[6:42] most directly do tonight. They can maybe

[6:44] influence the war, but that's a bigger

[6:46] question, a bigger policy. They can

[6:47] express their anger here. They can

[6:49] directly fix something by voting for

[6:52] somebody else. And that's why in

[6:54] addition to the war and Bush's lack of

[6:55] popularity, the Republicans are in the

[6:57] crosshairs right now. That's what the

[6:58] people in Buck County are saying

[7:00] according to those who've been calling

[7:01] me tonight. Let me go to Gene right now.

[7:03] And the question on the Maryland and

[7:04] Virginia sides, both sides of

[7:06] Washington, very hot races, those Senate

[7:08] races there. Which one do you think is

[7:10] going to be the most powerful coming out

[7:11] of this? the the result in Virginia, the

[7:14] one in this race involving Michael

[7:16] Steele and Ben Cardon over there in

[7:18] Maryland.

[7:19] >> Well, if Steel did pull off the upset,

[7:21] that would that would be the bigger

[7:23] result, I think. Um, you know, I've

[7:25] always thought that that Webb would

[7:27] probably squeak by Allen um just because

[7:31] of Allen's many missteps and gaffs in

[7:34] the campaign starting with Macaka and

[7:36] going on through, you know, at infinitum

[7:39] almost. Um uh but if if steel won that

[7:42] would be a really interesting result and

[7:44] uh it's going to be close.

[7:46] >> Let me go to Andrea. Maybe the result of

[7:48] this election is that Macaka will

[7:49] fortunately or not be in the uh in

[7:51] Webster's dictionary after this and

[7:53] everyone will know it was not a word

[7:54] made up by the candidate as he claims.

[7:57] But of course the question is are we

[7:59] going to see a real realignment? Imagine

[8:01] a Republican senator from Maryland which

[8:03] is almost endemically Democrat and a a

[8:06] Democratic senator from Virginia. This

[8:08] is against everything we've been brought

[8:10] up with.

[8:10] >> Absolutely. There could be a

[8:12] realignment. We don't know. We don't

[8:13] have results yet, but certainly the exit

[8:15] polls indicate that people are in a mood

[8:18] to protest. As Howard was just saying,

[8:20] this is a throw the bums out kind of

[8:22] mood from the people who are at least

[8:24] talking to those uh who were uh exit

[8:27] polling today. And it's a protest vote.

[8:29] Uh you're right. We can't average people

[8:32] can't do anything about the war, but

[8:34] they have a mood of we're not happy

[8:36] about the economy. were not happy about

[8:38] corruption. Eight and 10 telling the uh

[8:41] the people polling them that they were

[8:42] not happy about the economy.

[8:44] Extraordinary. And almost as many saying

[8:46] that they were not happy about this

[8:47] vaguely defined corruption. Corruption

[8:50] means a lot of things. It could also

[8:51] mean the incompetence, the sense that

[8:53] Congress isn't accomplishing anything,

[8:55] but it certainly most recently has to do

[8:57] with the Foley scandal, Abramoff, and

[8:59] all the other things that we've heard

[9:00] about in both parties, but particularly

[9:01] in the Republican party. This, as you

[9:03] say, does not bode well for Republicans

[9:06] going into the vote counting tonight.

[9:08] >> Joe Scarbor, I was talking to Jim

[9:09] Sasser, the former senator from

[9:11] Tennessee the other night at dinner. I

[9:12] bumped into him at a restaurant and he

[9:13] said, you know, when one of these

[9:14] tsunami comes along, these tidal waves

[9:17] of party left or right, Republican or

[9:19] Democrat, there's very little you can do

[9:21] about it. Is that your assessment? And

[9:23] if that's coming our way tonight?

[9:24] >> Yeah, you you can't do anything about

[9:26] it. On Friday before my election in

[9:28] 1994, I was ahead in the polls 52 to

[9:31] 48%. We thought it was going to be

[9:33] close. I ended up winning 62 to 38%.

[9:36] Everybody else that was close in the

[9:38] margin of errors ended up winning by 5

[9:40] 10 15 points. You had Republicans that

[9:42] won in 1994 that just would not have won

[9:45] in '92 or 96. That's why when you look

[9:48] at Missouri, when you look at Virginia,

[9:50] when you look at Montana, when you look

[9:52] at all of these close races, Maryland, I

[9:54] could name seven of them right now. all

[9:57] of those races are going to break

[9:59] Democratic unless uh we don't have a

[10:02] wave here. But again, all indications

[10:04] suggest we are not only uh because

[10:07] liberals and moderates are upset at

[10:09] George W. Bush, but also post Katrina

[10:12] because conservatives have also been

[10:14] angry. And you can look at Katrina and

[10:16] that's the time the president's own

[10:17] party started asking questions about his

[10:19] competence, saying, "You know what? If

[10:21] this guy can't run a rescue relief

[10:23] operation in the southeastern United

[10:25] States, how can he run a war in Iraq?

[10:28] >> Let me go to Andrew about a question we

[10:30] both are familiar with. That's the

[10:31] voting of the commuter. The the person

[10:32] who lives in the suburbs of big cities.

[10:35] They're not right. They're not left.

[10:36] They're very practical. They want to

[10:38] stop these big diseases. They're pro-

[10:39] stem cell. They generally are pro-choice

[10:42] on abortion rights, but yet they're very

[10:44] conservative on on taxes. They don't

[10:45] like big government because they don't

[10:46] benefit from it. They like I guess

[10:48] they're basically libertarian. If they

[10:50] sweep to the Democratic side, that

[10:52] almost decides almost all these

[10:54] elections in the Northeast, doesn't it?

[10:56] >> Right. You've got those five seats in

[10:57] Pennsylvania. You've got uh the Charlie

[11:00] Bass race in New Hampshire. Number of

[11:02] moderate Republicans, obviously the Link

[11:03] Chaffy race, very important race in

[11:05] Rhode Island. And then you look at

[11:07] Indiana, you look at Kentucky, you look

[11:09] at these key seats where uh if there is

[11:12] that kind of a sweep, you're talking

[11:14] about people upset about Katrina, upset

[11:16] about competence, conservative

[11:17] Republicans upset about government

[11:19] spending, that the Republican mandate

[11:22] was blown by people, as Dick Army would

[11:24] say, uh former majority leader, people

[11:27] who forgot what elected them back in

[11:29] 1994. And that kind of sweep is a

[11:32] realignment, but it might bode toward a

[11:35] new Congress which is more focused, at

[11:38] least after the next two years of

[11:39] gridlock, more focused on getting

[11:41] something done. People want some action

[11:43] from Washington.

[11:44] >> How Howard, I want to ask Howard about

[11:46] the the Newsweek cover coming next week.

[11:48] Are you already thinking like a Polaroid

[11:50] camera that you're like beginning to

[11:52] develop this picture already in your

[11:54] head of what you're going to recommend

[11:55] as the cover? Is it a realigning

[11:57] election? Are we too early to set it

[11:59] based upon these exit polls or what? It

[12:01] >> it's still a little too early. I'm

[12:03] focused on uh on Joe Scarboro ending up

[12:05] winning by 62%. No, but seriously, we

[12:09] don't yet know, Chris. We we don't know

[12:12] whether there really is a wave building

[12:14] yet. But but what I hear from the people

[12:16] who've called me from out in the field

[12:18] is interesting. It's that as Andrea

[12:20] said, broadly defined corruption,

[12:23] broadly defined the system isn't

[12:24] working. broadly defined m too much

[12:27] money in Washington. All of that stuff

[12:29] is what voters in a midterm can

[12:31] specifically address. And if they think

[12:33] that way, which it sounds to me like

[12:35] they are, that bodess uh well for a big

[12:38] night for the Democrats.

[12:39] >> But of course, in 1994, Chris or

[12:41] actually in 2004 at this time, we were

[12:44] all thinking that John Kerry was going

[12:46] to be the next president of the United

[12:47] States.

[12:48] >> Didn't work out that way.

[12:49] >> Thank you for that damper. We needed it

[12:51] all the times. We needed that, Joe.

[12:53] Thank you. Let's go to Keith right now.

[12:54] Yeah, Chris, I've got Howard's Newsweek

[12:56] cover if it goes the way that that's

[12:57] suggested, which is the dog catching the

[12:59] car. That might be your cover right

[13:00] there. Uh, let's go to the White House

[13:02] where our senior White House

[13:03] correspondent, David Gregory, has been

[13:05] all day, as he is on most days. Uh,

[13:07] David, good evening.

[13:09] Good evening, Keith. I wanted to give

[13:10] you a sense in this conversation of what

[13:13] I'm picking up from White House

[13:14] officials, from Republican officials.

[13:16] All day long, Republicans have been

[13:17] making the argument that the lofty

[13:19] expectations of the Democrats were just

[13:21] that, too lofty. They think they've been

[13:24] getting some traction in recent days,

[13:26] but here's the headline. They still

[13:27] don't think it's enough. The prevailing

[13:29] view is that they think it's unlikely

[13:30] that they can hold on to the House, even

[13:33] as they think they're looking pretty

[13:35] good in the Senate. A a Republican

[13:37] operative with close ties to the White

[13:39] House said to me this afternoon, "Look,

[13:41] you know, going into this thing, we had

[13:42] 12 dead men walking Republicans who are

[13:44] going to lose because of, as one

[13:46] official put it, scandal or stupidity."

[13:49] And then add to that the national mood

[13:50] in the country about the economy, about

[13:53] corruption, and notably about Iraq. It

[13:55] really doesn't bode well. Within the

[13:57] White House, the president is is

[13:59] assembled with his political team. I've

[14:01] talked to officials there. They are

[14:02] certainly bracing for losses, but as one

[14:05] official said, "Look, we're still in the

[14:06] rally the troops mode here." Uh, one

[14:08] official said, "Look, we we could be

[14:10] looking at 12 to 20 seats. That's

[14:12] obviously an upside for them. If it's

[14:14] anything less than 15, they keep control

[14:16] of the house." Uh, nevertheless, they're

[14:17] looking at these races, these toss-up

[14:19] races, especially on the House side,

[14:21] Keith, that they maintain will go down

[14:23] to the wire and will be decided by slim

[14:25] margins. David, if you had told them

[14:27] that you had come back from the future

[14:29] and gotten the three of the four biggest

[14:31] issues that voters were deciding on

[14:33] generically across the country according

[14:35] to the exit polls and told them it would

[14:37] be the economy, Iraq, and terrorism, I

[14:39] don't think anybody would have been

[14:40] surprised. But if you told them that the

[14:41] fourth one in that same group was

[14:43] corruption, would there have been

[14:45] surprise at the White House that that

[14:46] word would have been considered

[14:47] equivalent in importance in terms of

[14:49] issue deciding issues deciding votes

[14:51] nationally?

[14:53] Well, I I don't think so much. I mean,

[14:55] everybody recognizes that Iraq is the

[14:58] dominant issue, but for Democrats and

[15:01] Republicans, corruption is an issue. So,

[15:02] it's difficult to know how that exit

[15:04] polling translates into who you vote

[15:06] for. But look at pockets of the country

[15:08] where it really matters. in Ohio. It's

[15:10] been described as a killing field for

[15:11] Republicans this year. You've got the

[15:13] governor uh caught up in a scandal, a

[15:17] corruption scandal. Representative Nay

[15:19] caught up in a scandal. Not to mention

[15:21] the Mark Foley mess and the question of

[15:23] the how they're running the page program

[15:25] and whether they were covering up

[15:27] information, but a bad economy and the

[15:29] war. So, you pile all that together, the

[15:31] real is a real question among

[15:32] Republicans and Democrats about how

[15:35] Republicans are running things. They're

[15:37] the ones in power. And so I don't think

[15:39] people here would be surprised about

[15:40] corruption, but I think everybody is

[15:42] still counting on Iraq being the

[15:43] defining issue.

[15:44] >> How about this? I'm going to quote this

[15:46] directly from an Associated Press story,

[15:48] and you tell me if this would be a

[15:49] surprise. Uh in that White House behind

[15:51] you right now, in a sign of the

[15:53] dispirited GOP BA base, and this is the

[15:55] Associated Press quoting again those

[15:56] exit polls, most white evangelicals said

[15:59] corruption was very important to them in

[16:01] before making their votes obviously

[16:03] today. And almost a third of them turned

[16:05] to the Democrats. How would that be

[16:07] received in the White House?

[16:09] >> Well, again, I mean, this is this is the

[16:10] kind of bad news that I think they've

[16:12] been bracing for in certain pockets of

[16:14] the country. And if this does play out

[16:16] as a kind of national wave, it will go

[16:18] not just to the issue of competence, but

[16:21] to the issue of corruption, to the issue

[16:23] of trust and credibility, and that that

[16:25] cuts across some of these various

[16:27] issues. So, as we learn this information

[16:29] from the voters, uh, you know, they're

[16:31] going to put this in the column of the

[16:32] unfavorables that they weren't looking

[16:34] for. It's interesting because I talked

[16:36] to some White House officials said,

[16:37] "Look, you guys in the media, you wanted

[16:39] us to be out analytical all the time and

[16:41] say that, oh, you know, we're in

[16:42] terrible shape. We're not doing well."

[16:44] It's our job to rally the troops. And

[16:46] what you've seen from the president in

[16:48] recent days is just that, an an attempt

[16:51] to try to make this a choice between two

[16:53] visions of how to secure the country and

[16:55] to try to get to motivate the party

[16:58] faithful in parts of the country where

[16:59] they still think he's doing a pretty

[17:01] good job to come out and vote. But I

[17:02] don't think anybody's going to be

[17:03] surprised that they're up against some

[17:05] real tough forces out there.

[17:06] >> Yeah, he wasn't quite Teddy Roosevelt in

[17:08] 1912 and saying, "We met at Armageddon

[17:10] and we battle for the Lord, but it was

[17:11] quite a strong finish from President

[17:13] Bush." David Gregory at the White House.

[17:15] Great thanks. We'll check back with in

[17:16] with you as time permits. Thank you,

[17:18] sir.

[17:18] >> Well, ju just to recap, too early to

[17:20] call in Virginia between Webb and George

[17:22] Allen. And in Vermont, the projected

[17:24] winner is Bernie Sanders, the one-time

[17:26] socialist mayor of Burlington. still a

[17:28] socialist but now a projected winner in

[17:30] a Senate race and in Indiana. Richard

[17:32] Luger is the projected winner. He was

[17:34] running unopposed against no Democrats

[17:36] showed up to beat him. He's too strong.

[17:38] So here's what it means for the balance

[17:40] of power. We began the night with 40

[17:42] Republicans, 27 Democrats in the Senate.

[17:44] And on your screen above the ticker, you

[17:46] will see those numbers change in real

[17:48] time as we get these [music] results. So

[17:50] with the latest results in Indiana and

[17:52] in Vermont and obviously somewhere old

[17:54] Bob Lefalad is smiling about Bernie

[17:56] Sanders. The scorecard is Republicans

[17:58] 41, Democrats 27, and independents one.

[18:01] And remember that one independent,

[18:03] Vermont's Bernie Sanders will caucus

[18:05] with the Democrats. We'll keep you

[18:06] posted on this. You are watching MSNBC's

[18:09] live coverage, Decision 2006.

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[20:36] Decision 2006, the aftermath. Special

[20:39] coverage all day tomorrow, only on

[20:41] MSNBC.

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[20:57] Welcome back to MSNBC's Decision 2006

[21:00] coverage. Here's the latest from

[21:01] Virginia. Too close to call between

[21:03] George Allen, the incumbent Republican,

[21:05] and his Democratic challenger, Jim Webb.

[21:08] >> Their pictures remain unchanged, and our

[21:10] decision on whether or not this race is

[21:12] going to be called remains unchanged and

[21:13] may yet for some time. This is one of

[21:15] those key races we expect to go late

[21:17] into the night tonight to help determine

[21:19] the balance of power in the Senate.

[21:21] Democrats, you may know this already,

[21:23] need a net gain [laughter] of six seats

[21:24] to win control. You may have heard that

[21:26] at some point. Let's check in on some of

[21:27] the other hot races we're watching,

[21:29] beginning with NBC's Kevin Tibbles,

[21:31] who's at Clare McCascal's headquarters

[21:33] in St. Louis, Missouri. Kevin, good

[21:35] evening again.

[21:37] >> Now, this is a race that may very well

[21:39] be going late into the night, not only

[21:41] because it's been a dead heat since the

[21:42] get-go, but a glitch has apparently

[21:45] developed in the southwestern part of

[21:47] this state, one of those red parts of

[21:49] the nation where the president has

[21:50] campaigned very heavily right up until

[21:52] last week. Tonight, we are getting word

[21:54] out of Joplain that two counties down in

[21:57] the Joplin, Missouri area have run out

[21:59] of ballots. The polls don't even close

[22:02] for another 40 minutes. Our local

[22:04] affiliate down in the Joplin area, which

[22:06] is endeavoring to get us pictures of

[22:07] this, is saying it's a virtual mob scene

[22:10] down there that two times as many people

[22:13] have turned out to vote today than were

[22:15] expected. And they have essentially

[22:17] simply just run out of ballots. And

[22:19] people are starting to panic as the as

[22:21] the time for the polls to close comes to

[22:23] an end. What is going to happen? Well,

[22:25] we understand that they are actually

[22:27] xeroxing some ballots, having people

[22:29] fill out, mark their X on the Xerox copy

[22:32] of the ballot. But there's even a

[22:33] problem with that because apparently a

[22:35] copied or Xerox ballot can't be run

[22:38] through a machine, which means someone

[22:40] somewhere is going to have to sit down

[22:42] and copy from the Xerox onto an official

[22:45] ballot before those votes can be

[22:47] counted. We all expected to be here

[22:49] perhaps a little bit late tonight

[22:50] because this vote was a dead heat going

[22:53] into it between Jim Talent of the

[22:54] Republicans and Clare McCascal Democrat.

[22:57] We may be here a little bit later

[22:58] tonight for another reason.

[23:01] >> In fact, Kevin, if you're xeroxing

[23:03] ballots down there in Joplin, Missouri,

[23:05] you may be there for several weeks

[23:06] because the lawyers don't like Xerox

[23:08] copies. We'll check back with you on

[23:10] that at our earliest possible

[23:11] convenience. Kevin Tibbles at Macascal

[23:13] headquarters in St. Louis. Great that

[23:14] you're great. Thanks for that. It's the

[23:16] 21st century, Chris, surprisingly

[23:17] enough. Now, let's go to Tennessee,

[23:19] where the race between Congressman

[23:20] Harold Ford Jr. and former Chattanooga

[23:22] Mayor Bob Corker has gotten uglier in

[23:25] the past few weeks. NBC's Tom Costello

[23:27] is at Ford headquarters in Memphis. Tom,

[23:29] good evening.

[23:31] >> Keith, good evening. From the historic

[23:32] Peabody Hotel where they run the Ducks

[23:34] in twice a day into the lobby and where

[23:36] tonight Harold Ford hopes he's going to

[23:38] be celebrating a win. But for that to

[23:40] happen, a lot of things have got to

[23:42] break his way. The weather may have

[23:44] broken his way today. Take a look at a

[23:46] satellite loop of the weather in eastern

[23:48] Tennessee today. It has been raining and

[23:50] raining hard, specifically Knoxville,

[23:53] Chattanooga, the northeast corner of the

[23:55] state. All getting hammered today. But

[23:57] look at Memphis in the far left. That is

[23:59] considered to be Democratic territory.

[24:01] It's been dry here. Not a nice day, but

[24:03] it's been dry. The weather moved through

[24:05] here overnight. It's been raining hard

[24:07] all through eastern Tennessee today.

[24:09] That's considered to be more of

[24:10] Republican territory. Ford is going to

[24:12] need all the help he can get. The polls

[24:14] have him down by anywhere from three to

[24:16] 12 points, depending on which poll

[24:18] you're talking about. The Ford campaign

[24:20] has insisted all along their own

[24:22] internal polling shows it's more of a

[24:24] dead heat and they believe that they've

[24:25] done very well in early early voting.

[24:27] The Corker campaign also says they've

[24:29] done very well in early voting. So, the

[24:32] question is, will the will the weather

[24:33] tonight in any way dampen the turnout in

[24:36] Eastern Tennessee in that Republican

[24:38] stronghold? Could that be a negative for

[24:40] Corker and a positive for the Ford

[24:42] campaign? The folks here really believe

[24:44] this is going to be a squeaker. They

[24:46] don't believe that Mason Dixon poll

[24:48] which put them down by 12. They think

[24:50] they've been down by just a point to

[24:51] three points. They think we're going to

[24:53] be here very late tonight and they are

[24:55] anxious to see Harold Ford, the first

[24:57] African-American senator elected from

[24:59] the South since reconstruction. Keith,

[25:02] back to you.

[25:02] >> Tom Costello, great. Thanks for the

[25:04] latest on Ford Corker and also that

[25:06] Doppler weather forecast for Tennessee.

[25:07] >> [laughter]

[25:08] >> You know, you wonder about the power of

[25:10] labor and there's one man who still is a

[25:11] powerful labor leader in this country.

[25:13] That's Harold Shberger, president of the

[25:15] International Association of

[25:16] Firefighters. He joins us now from

[25:18] Lieberman headquarters in Hartford. Does

[25:20] that mean you guys are for Lieberman?

[25:23] >> Yeah, Chris, I told you in August we

[25:25] were for Lieberman during the uh primary

[25:28] and uh regardless of what that outcome

[25:30] was, we'd stick with Joe as long as he

[25:32] was running for reelection and that's

[25:33] what we're doing. Where are your uh rank

[25:35] and file on the issue of the war in

[25:37] Iraq? Are they with Lieberman on that

[25:38] one?

[25:40] >> I tell you what, they're with Joe

[25:41] Lieberman for they're with Joe Lieberman

[25:44] for 18 years that he has supported the

[25:45] issues up and down the line that are

[25:48] important to uh to my members, to their

[25:51] families, supporting the issues that

[25:53] allow them to have the equipment, the

[25:54] training, the personnel to do a very

[25:56] tough job that they're expected to do on

[25:58] behalf of their communities and their

[26:00] neighbors. They know that Joe Lieberman

[26:02] has been with them on issues that are

[26:04] important to working class, middle

[26:06] class, you know, tax uh tax cuts for the

[26:08] middle class, fighting the tax cuts for

[26:10] the wealthy, trying to work to see that,

[26:12] you know, we got health care that can be

[26:14] provided to so many of our members that

[26:16] lack healthcare. So, they're with Joe

[26:17] for 18 years of service and we're going

[26:20] to stick with him.

[26:21] >> But isn't he a George Bush kissing

[26:23] booth?

[26:25] >> No. Listen, listen, that is an issue

[26:28] that is not even an issue uh in this

[26:31] race nor an issue with us. Only thing we

[26:33] care about is is do we have a senator

[26:36] that's fought hard to secure our

[26:38] country? We got to remember Chris, it

[26:40] was Joe Lieberman who really offered up

[26:42] and suggested we have a Department of

[26:43] Homeland Security long before this

[26:45] president or this administration did.

[26:47] >> So, you're counting on him to vote with

[26:48] the Democrats when he comes back to the

[26:50] Senate if he gets re-elected tonight?

[26:53] I know that Joe will caucus with the

[26:55] Democrats, but he'll also use his

[26:57] skills. He's a gentleman, you know, he's

[26:59] a wonderful individual that can work

[27:01] both sides of the aisle to get things

[27:03] done for America, to get things done for

[27:05] working families, you know, to give

[27:07] those that are just out working hard for

[27:08] a living, you know, a fair break. Okay,

[27:11] thank you very much, Harold Shapeber,

[27:13] the firefighters. In just a few minutes,

[27:14] the polls will close in three more

[27:16] states, some big ones, including Ohio.

[27:18] There's a hot one. uh home to a couple

[27:20] of big races including that Senate race

[27:22] between Mike DeWine the incumbent

[27:24] Republican and the challenger the real

[27:26] labor Democrat Sherid Brown and the

[27:29] governor's race between Ted Strickland

[27:30] and Ken Blackwell the man who largely

[27:33] counted the votes there in 2004 and

[27:35] earned the emnity of people like Bob

[27:38] Shrum. We'll have the results when we

[27:39] return. You're watching MSNBC's live

[27:41] coverage of Decision 2006.

[27:56] >> [music]

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[30:41] >> Well, the polls are now closed in Ohio,

[30:43] which is always been a fascinating state

[30:45] to watch. Let's take a look at what's

[30:47] coming in from Ohio.

[30:52] There it is. The US Senate race in Ohio,

[30:54] one we've been watching now for months.

[30:56] Too early to call between the incumbent

[30:58] Mike Dwine, Republican, and the

[31:00] challenger, Sherid Brown. Too close to

[31:02] call. too early to call. Rather, we

[31:04] don't have enough votes to count. And

[31:06] and another race which is too early to

[31:07] call. Another one on our top six or

[31:09] seven to watch tonight is George Allen

[31:12] fighting it out with Jim Webb, the

[31:13] incumbent Republican against the

[31:15] challenging Democrat. Again, too early

[31:17] to call in Virginia. That's Virginia and

[31:19] Ohio. Both too early to call. Now, let's

[31:21] take a look at this one. This is one of

[31:23] the historic moments of our time.

[31:24] There's Senator Robert Bird. He lost his

[31:26] wife after what, 70 years of marriage uh

[31:30] last year. He's the projected winner in

[31:32] West Virginia. This man was first

[31:34] elected to the United States Senate in

[31:35] 1958. His first president, Dwight

[31:38] Eisenhower. He's been there through the

[31:39] Cuban Missile Crisis, through

[31:41] everything, all the last half of that

[31:43] century. He's going to get another six

[31:45] years. Maybe it's his retirement term,

[31:47] his ninth six-year term in the US Senate

[31:50] from West Virginia. They love that guy.

[31:51] They love his fiddle. From Eisenhower's

[31:54] midterms to George Bush's midterms. So

[31:56] what does this do for the balance of

[31:58] power as we continue to look at it to

[32:00] this hour unchanged? Nothing yet as a

[32:03] surprise. The independent Sanders in

[32:05] Vermont likely to caucus with the

[32:07] Democrats. So as you look for that

[32:08] possible Democratic swing of six or

[32:11] perhaps Republican retention of the

[32:12] Senate. Uh right now there is no new

[32:14] guidance. It's still 4128 to1. But we

[32:18] can take a look uh beginning to take a

[32:19] look at the governor races. There is one

[32:21] now to project. It's not too early to

[32:23] call. NBC News projects that when all

[32:25] the votes are counted in Ohio, Ted

[32:27] Strickland, the Democrat who was first

[32:29] elected to the US House in 1992, former

[32:32] United Methodist Church minister, takes

[32:34] back the Democratic uh takes back the

[32:36] governor's office for the Democrats

[32:38] after 16 years of the Republicans

[32:40] controlling the state house in Ohio,

[32:42] defeating the Secretary of State, Ken

[32:45] Blackwell, who as Chris pointed out

[32:47] earlier was not Mr. Popularity among the

[32:50] Democrats in 2004. And uh throughout

[32:52] this race, Strickland was well ahead in

[32:53] the polls and the results suggest that's

[32:55] the way that's going to turn out when

[32:57] the votes are counted against. He's sort

[32:58] of the Katherine Harris of Ohio, held in

[33:02] the same regard by Democrats. Hotline

[33:04] editor and chief Chuck Todd is with us

[33:05] now. And Chuck is one of my gurus,

[33:07] perhaps my number one guru. You've been

[33:09] preaching to me for weeks now, Chuck,

[33:11] that it's more or less a a big slam dunk

[33:14] or it's something small, but it will be

[33:16] in tandem. There will be a pattern here.

[33:18] Uh, do you still subscribe to the theory

[33:20] that we're either going to get a tsunami

[33:22] tonight which brings in perhaps six

[33:23] senators as well as a huge body of 30 to

[33:26] 40 Democrats into the advantage in the

[33:28] House or we're going to get a mixed bag?

[33:30] >> Look, I still think that that's where

[33:32] we're sitting at an either or. You know,

[33:33] one one result that I'm sitting here

[33:35] watching as it comes in the first to me

[33:37] the first most important House race to

[33:40] be counting it's in Kucky's third

[33:42] district. It's Louisville. There's

[33:43] already 70% of the vote in and Chris.

[33:45] It's 50/50. This is a district that

[33:47] shouldn't have been 50/50. This is a

[33:49] district the Republican and north of

[33:50] should have been winning comfortably.

[33:52] Sure, it's a Democratic. It's got some

[33:54] Democratic uh parts to it. It there is

[33:56] some bless to it, but only when the when

[33:59] the blues turn out in heavy force and

[34:01] and there's a weaker Democratic

[34:03] candidate in John Yarmouth and and that

[34:05] race in particular as soon as it's

[34:07] called is going to tell me a lot

[34:09] tonight.

[34:09] >> Is Anne North in danger here?

[34:11] >> She looks to be in very she looks to be

[34:13] in great danger. She's one of those. But

[34:14] doesn't she always have a clo I've been

[34:16] with her. I've noted it in three or four

[34:19] close ones before.

[34:20] >> You're absolutely right. But she hasn't

[34:21] in three or four cycles. And even when

[34:22] she's had the when she's been targeted,

[34:25] she always seemed to pull ahead, pull

[34:27] away. She didn't do that this time. And

[34:29] it just sort of it makes you wonder,

[34:32] look, this election was whether would

[34:33] the blue areas of this country get bluer

[34:36] and therefore alter the maps in specific

[34:38] states, alter Ohio, alter Missouri,

[34:41] alter uh Virginia to to and potentially

[34:44] now alter Kentucky? That I think was

[34:46] always the key to this election cycle.

[34:48] Was the Democratic turnout going to be

[34:49] stronger and higher than the Republican

[34:51] turnout? And I think we're seeing

[34:54] potential evidence in this in in in this

[34:56] third district in Kentucky. And the

[34:58] reason I point to it is because

[34:59] Democrats didn't target it, Chris. It

[35:01] was not a targeted race. It's not like

[35:02] those Philly suburban district. It's not

[35:04] like those Connecticut races. And that's

[35:06] why I think it means a little bit more

[35:07] tonight.

[35:08] >> Okay. For the people who have to get up

[35:09] tomorrow morning at 4:00 and want to get

[35:11] go to bed right now, what do you see?

[35:13] >> You're the expert. You're my guru. What

[35:15] do you see?

[35:15] >> Well, the numbers are I look, I'm not

[35:18] comfortable with all those exit polls

[35:19] that have been leaked around. We've been

[35:21] in we've been on this uh we've been here

[35:23] before. Look, I think we're going to

[35:24] know before 11:00 tonight of whether

[35:27] Democrats have won the House. There's

[35:28] too many seats east of the Mississippi.

[35:30] They're getting counted pretty fast. U

[35:32] so that's what I'm comfortable saying,

[35:34] you know.

[35:35] >> Well, let me make you a little bit

[35:36] uncomfortable. Do you still subscribe to

[35:38] this? There used to be a rule that the

[35:40] tallest man, for example, always won the

[35:42] presidential election. That was blown

[35:43] away with the age of television. Nixon

[35:45] defeated George McGovern rather handily.

[35:48] Um, this time around there's been this

[35:50] wives tale, if you want to use a gen

[35:52] gender term, that the Senate always

[35:54] follows the House in a big shift like

[35:56] this. Do you believe that today?

[35:58] >> Look, I believe that the Senate Senate

[36:00] campaigns are more nationalized than

[36:02] House campaigns because they're they're

[36:03] the nature of what they are. They're the

[36:05] national issues get debated in a Senate

[36:07] campaign before they get debated in a

[36:09] House campaign. So, I think they're more

[36:11] susceptible to the wind and to to which

[36:13] way the wind is blowing an election. And

[36:15] so yeah, I'm still believing and I think

[36:18] our our line here is about 25 or 30

[36:20] House seats. If it gets over 25 or 30

[36:22] House seats, you're going to see six

[36:23] Senate seats. I don't think you're going

[36:25] to see four Senate seats and 30 House

[36:27] seats for

[36:27] >> Well, that'll be fantastic news. Uh

[36:29] it'll be huge news, I should say,

[36:31] because if that happens, then we have a

[36:32] government run by the Democrats, an

[36:35] executive branch run by the Republicans,

[36:37] President George W. Bush, having to

[36:39] actually negotiate every aspect of

[36:41] national policy, including the war in

[36:44] Iraq. Right, Chuck?

[36:45] >> Well, it was like the late 80s or or

[36:46] most of the 90s. I mean, you know, and

[36:48] and you know what, the the people were

[36:50] happy with that. Uh there's something

[36:51] that the the country gets comfortable uh

[36:54] when those in power are uncomfortable.

[36:57] And I think that there's, you know, I

[36:59] don't think that that's an accident.

[37:01] >> Okay. Thank you very much, Chuck Todd.

[37:02] You are my guru. Let's bring back the

[37:04] panel right now. I see them. Andrew

[37:05] Mitchell, Joe Scarro, Jean Jean

[37:10] Robinson,

[37:12] and of course Howard Fman. I can see you

[37:14] all now. Thank you for coming across the

[37:15] board right now. I want you to answer

[37:17] with 10 or 20 seconds. Starting with

[37:20] Andrea. Do you see a Democratic move

[37:23] coming here of dramatic historic

[37:24] proportions?

[37:25] >> I think it's too early to say that. We

[37:27] really have to look at some hard

[37:28] numbers, but certainly from the exit

[37:30] polls, we are seeing a protest vote.

[37:33] We're seeing an angry electorate, and

[37:34] that is significant. That is not a good

[37:37] good sign for Republicans.

[37:39] >> Let me go to Joe Scarbor, then. Well,

[37:41] you know, I I don't we haven't seen

[37:43] anything yet. We'll have to wait uh for

[37:45] the results to come in. Again, Carl Rove

[37:47] and Ken Melman in 2004 brought out an

[37:50] awful lot of people. In some states,

[37:51] that's going to work. I you know, and

[37:53] Northup going down, that's not going to

[37:55] be something that's going to shock a lot

[37:56] of people. That race has been a toss up

[37:58] for years now. That district, that

[38:00] district's a toss up, too. So, no, still

[38:02] too early to call. But, you know, it may

[38:04] end up being like 1986 where Democrats

[38:06] took, I think, seven seats from Ronald

[38:09] Reagan's party, but only picked up a

[38:11] couple in the House. Still too early to

[38:12] tell whether it's going to be a historic

[38:13] night or not.

[38:14] >> Gene, it seems so many rules are broken.

[38:16] The tallest guy used to always win. The

[38:18] Senate always went with the House. U

[38:20] there used to be a big six-year itch

[38:21] that always occurred and it stopped

[38:22] working in '98. I mean, are we just in a

[38:25] process of just being an iconoclast

[38:27] here? Basically breaking icons one after

[38:29] another.

[38:30] >> Maybe we are. you know, I I think the

[38:32] exit polling is really interesting,

[38:34] though, that that that corruption

[38:36] figure. Um, and and I wonder if voters

[38:39] aren't broadly talking about, you know,

[38:41] all the things that are going wrong, all

[38:44] the things they believe are going wrong.

[38:46] And, you know, that famous kind of is a

[38:47] country on the right path or the wrong

[38:49] path question. That's that's like death

[38:51] to incumbent presidents basically. And

[38:54] and so I think you know given that

[38:56] result we might be say seeing a wave if

[38:58] you know not maybe not a tsunami but a

[39:00] wave maybe

[39:01] >> and it could be that populist instinct I

[39:03] keep finding in the polling Howard I

[39:04] want you to check Gan and I on that

[39:06] which is every time you ask people

[39:07] questions now they don't just say I'd

[39:09] like to make more money at work I'd like

[39:11] to have a higher salary I'd like to have

[39:12] some break on tuition for the kids

[39:14] they're saying the damn rich are getting

[39:15] all the money there's a real anger out

[39:17] there you see it it shows up in

[39:19] discussions of foreign trade of all

[39:21] kinds of ways the rich are grabbing and

[39:23] Holler Burton, the big shots insider are

[39:26] taking the money away from us. That's

[39:27] why we're not doing so well.

[39:28] >> Uh Chris, I I lived and worked in

[39:30] Louisville for almost 5 years for the

[39:32] Louisville Courier Journal newspaper. In

[39:34] that uh district that this race is in

[39:37] that we're talking about, John Kerry won

[39:39] that uh district 5149.

[39:42] Uh however, the Democratic candidate

[39:44] John Yarmouth, who may be on the road to

[39:47] victory here, was not the one that Rahm

[39:50] Emanuel and the Democratic machine

[39:51] wanted. He was too liberal for them. He

[39:53] wasn't their prized candidate. They

[39:55] didn't want to support him. If he wins

[39:57] tonight, and it looks like he may, I

[40:00] think it signals a big Democratic night

[40:02] in the House for sure. That's not one

[40:04] that the Democrats expected to win. They

[40:06] didn't even put much money in there. As

[40:07] Chuck Todd was saying, a huge upset and

[40:10] I think port's a big night in the House

[40:13] for the Democrats

[40:14] >> and a lot of name brand Democrats going

[40:16] down.

[40:17] >> Name brand Republicans.

[40:18] >> Name brand Republicans. Andrea, your

[40:19] thoughts on that? We'll go back again on

[40:21] this looking at the polls that show a

[40:23] big concern about Iraq. We knew that an

[40:25] almost equal concern at least when it's

[40:27] suggested to the the person being

[40:29] interviewed at the exit poll about a

[40:31] corruption. It seems to be corruption if

[40:32] you are evangelic or a person who just

[40:34] doesn't like slime of any kind. You're

[40:37] incredibly upset about the Mark Foley

[40:38] scandal what looks like a cover up.

[40:40] You're very angry about Enron and how

[40:42] people who invested in the company they

[40:44] work for were screwed basically by the

[40:46] big shots inside. You blame all that on

[40:48] the political establishment. I would

[40:50] think

[40:50] >> you do and that means of course the

[40:52] incumbent party. I think there's also a

[40:54] broader definition of corruption here

[40:55] and there was a turning point after

[40:57] Katrina and that's government

[40:59] competence. Government that can't get it

[41:01] right, that can't do the rescue, that

[41:02] can't get the war fixed, that can't uh

[41:05] cut the budget, that spends too much

[41:07] money. And these are Republican core

[41:09] values that have been really abregated

[41:11] by the incumbents in Washington. There's

[41:13] another interesting number in this exit

[41:15] poll that we haven't talked about. Four

[41:17] out of 10 people say that they think

[41:19] that life will be worse for the coming

[41:21] generation. That [music] is very sad and

[41:23] very significant and it it follows the

[41:25] right track wrong track polling that

[41:27] we've been seeing. But it tells you for

[41:29] the first time that people really are

[41:30] not optimistic about the future and

[41:32] that's possibly one of the reasons why

[41:34] they may vote against the incumbent

[41:36] Congress.

[41:36] >> Thank you Andrew. Thank you J Scarra

[41:38] Eugene Robinson. Howard Fman. Let's go

[41:40] back to Keith.

[41:41] >> Two quick notes, two facts about Ohio,

[41:43] Chris. Number one, if Ted Strickland,

[41:45] who we have projected as the governor

[41:48] victor there, not governor elect, we

[41:50] don't use those terms until it's

[41:51] official, but who would be governor of

[41:53] Ohio, be the first Democrat elected

[41:55] statewide in Ohio since John Glenn in

[41:57] 1992. Second fact about Ohio that is of

[41:59] import polling locations in 16 Cleveland

[42:03] polling areas, heavily Democratic areas

[42:06] like Shaker Heights and University

[42:07] Heights, Warrenville Heights, Cleveland

[42:08] Heights, East Cleveland precincts where

[42:10] there were reports of machines either

[42:12] not showing up on time or maintenance

[42:14] workers not being able to repair

[42:15] malfunctioning machines quickly. hours

[42:18] have been extended there uh until 900

[42:20] p.m. But any ballots cast after the

[42:22] original scheduled closing time will not

[42:24] be counted until November 28th when the

[42:26] elections are made official. Thus, we

[42:28] are going to use the term provisional

[42:30] ballots in Ohio once again, even though

[42:32] that will apparently not affect the

[42:34] governor's race, which as you see Mr.

[42:36] Strickland is projected as the Democrat

[42:38] winner there, but could impact the Dwine

[42:41] race uh for the retention of the Senate

[42:44] from

[42:44] >> and we're teaching this stuff worldwide,

[42:46] by the way.

[42:47] >> How to uh election, how to run

[42:48] elections,

[42:49] >> how to do democracy in Iraq. We're

[42:50] teaching this with the state-of-the-art

[42:52] equipment that includes Xerox machin,

[42:55] Missouri. The Xerox machines are humming

[42:57] tonight in Joplin, Missouri. Let's find

[42:59] out what the latest news is, how that's

[43:01] being digested at the White House. Uh

[43:03] our senior White House correspondent

[43:04] David Gregory rejoins us from there now.

[43:06] David, good evening again. What's new?

[43:09] >> Well Keith, again at the moment the

[43:11] president and his top political team

[43:13] assembled at the White House uh at

[43:16] around 6:30 Eastern time. Carl Rove was

[43:18] personally briefing the president giving

[43:19] him the lay of the land. They really are

[43:22] in a mode as one adviser told me of

[43:24] trying to to rally the troops still.

[43:26] They've got a number of these House

[43:28] races that they think are are up for

[43:29] grabs that will be decided by slim

[43:31] margins. I've heard from Republican

[43:33] operatives today this phrase which is

[43:36] presidential year turnout. They say

[43:38] that's happening in Virginia. They say

[43:40] they're getting reports of that in rural

[43:42] Missouri. That's all very important to

[43:44] them. When you think about the gym

[43:45] talent race there and of course Senator

[43:48] Allen in Virginia turnout's the key. We

[43:50] know about their mobilization efforts.

[43:52] They're still counting on that. But as

[43:54] you get a little farther out from inside

[43:55] the White House, Republicans are not

[43:57] really that hopeful. Uh they they think

[43:59] the House is going to go. It's a

[44:01] question of how many seats and you're

[44:03] already starting to see the contours of

[44:05] what the spin might be which is trying

[44:07] to tamp down these lofty expectations of

[44:09] the Democrats saying that if they lose

[44:11] 20 seats that's not 35 or 45 that

[44:14] Republicans were able to rally toward

[44:16] the end. So that's kind of where they're

[44:19] headed right now. But you know it it is

[44:21] striking on an election night to see

[44:23] such a subdued kind of sober mood among

[44:26] Republicans. They felt like they were

[44:28] they were really in rough shape from the

[44:30] get-go. And then you add Iraq on top of

[44:33] what's showing up in exit polls, I

[44:34] think, on corruption, this question of

[44:36] competence, scandal in in parts of the

[44:38] country, not to mention the Foley

[44:40] matter. It's just a really sour

[44:41] environment.

[44:42] >> Yeah. But give us a comparison for all

[44:44] those who heard about those sour moods

[44:46] at the White House this time two years

[44:47] ago in 2004. How does this sour mood

[44:50] compared to that sour mood which seemed

[44:52] to abate fairly quickly?

[44:54] Well, it did abate and and one of the

[44:57] things that you saw back in 2004 is they

[44:59] as the president was flying back into

[45:01] Washington from being in Ohio and I was

[45:04] on Air Force One, they were getting this

[45:06] exit poll data and they thought, you

[45:07] know, they were getting creamed

[45:08] essentially thought they thought either

[45:10] they were all wrong, the exit polls were

[45:12] wrong or they the advisers were all

[45:14] wrong in terms of how they were they

[45:16] were assessing the political landscape.

[45:18] I don't get the sense that this time

[45:20] around they think they have misread the

[45:21] political landslcape. They know it's

[45:23] tough and you you see among the

[45:25] president's top adviserss a kind of glum

[45:27] mood about where things are, but can

[45:30] they can they turn that around with

[45:32] turnout? Can they turn it around by

[45:34] redefining the election as a choice

[45:37] rather than a referendum? And this is

[45:39] what will play out over the next several

[45:41] hours. I think outside the White House,

[45:42] they're considerably uh more glum about

[45:44] their prospects. inside the White House

[45:46] are still kind of holding on to the idea

[45:48] that they're they're vaunted get out the

[45:50] vote operation can actually work. But I

[45:53] I I don't think anybody is terribly

[45:55] optimistic right now. But let me say

[45:57] this. I think it's important on the

[45:59] Senate side. They do feel very good. Uh

[46:02] and and they attribute this not only to

[46:03] some of the individual campaigns. I've

[46:05] talked to Republicans who say keep an

[46:07] eye on Maryland. This was never really

[46:09] supposed to be in play for the

[46:10] Republicans, but the Lieutenant

[46:11] Governor, Michael Steele, making a very

[46:13] strong run, tightening this race down

[46:15] the stretch. They see a potential pickup

[46:18] there, and they feel good about holding

[46:19] on to the Senate overall.

[46:21] >> David Gregory at the White House where

[46:23] it is uh glum glum as opposed to 2004

[46:26] glum. David, we'll be back with you

[46:27] later on. Thanks.

[46:29] >> We're watching those Senate races as we

[46:30] said in Virginia and Ohio. Too early to

[46:32] call. In Virginia, it's too early to

[46:34] call between George and Jim Webb. In

[46:36] Ohio, same story. Too early to call

[46:38] between Sherid Brown and Mike DeWine.

[46:40] And of course, you can still vote in

[46:41] many parts of the country. [music] We

[46:43] want to encourage Republicans and

[46:44] Democrats to go out and talk to the

[46:46] president tonight. This is your way of

[46:47] doing it. And we're also getting ready

[46:49] for results at the top of the next hour

[46:50] from several key states, including

[46:52] Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, and

[46:54] Tennessee. It's a huge roll call just

[46:57] about 13 and a half minutes from now.

[46:58] This is MSNBC's live coverage. Decision

[47:01] 2006.

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[48:05] >> $30,000. Do I hear 40? $40,000. Do I

[48:08] hear 50? 50,000. I have 50,000. Sold to

[48:11] the gentleman in the center.

[48:13] >> Hi.

[48:13] >> Moving on. This is the 19th.

[48:15] >> Okay. I want to go ahead and sell it

[48:16] now.

[48:18] >> Sell what?

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[48:20] >> Constantly buying and selling stocks

[48:22] doesn't make much [music] sense either.

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[48:34] >> I got something in store for you.

[48:36] Something everybody in Portland's gonna

[48:39] want TO SEE.

[48:41] >> I'M GOING TO SUCK YOU UP.

[48:44] >> I'm going to RIP YOUR [screaming] ARM

[48:46] FROM YOUR SHOULDERS. I'MMA STOMP YOUR

[48:48] face into the ground. And I'm not going

[48:51] to stop until you're stretchered out and

[48:53] you're in the hospital.

[48:58] This isn't a STINKING NBA. IT'S NOT THE

[49:00] NFL. THIS IS PROFESSIONAL WRESTLING.

[49:05] >> YEAH. WOOHOO.

[49:07] >> Who's fast? I'm fast.

[49:09] >> Yes.

[49:10] Bang. Gotcha.

[49:13] >> Excuse me.

[49:14] >> Yeah.

[49:14] >> Do you work here?

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[49:42] Welcome back to MSNBC's [music] decision

[49:44] 2006 coverage. As Keith said, we're

[49:46] getting close to Niagara Falls here in

[49:47] terms of numbers. We're waiting for it

[49:48] to pop. Let's get an update on that hot

[49:50] center race in Virginia and the other

[49:52] one in Ohio. I like to read these boards

[49:54] right now. They're both too early to

[49:55] call on this board board. You can read

[49:57] it yourself. The election's within

[49:58] 30,000 votes in terms of votes counted

[50:00] right now. George, the incumbent,

[50:02] battling it out with Jim Webb. It's

[50:04] interesting in the polling we're looking

[50:05] at there that the person who cares most

[50:07] about Iraq is probably voting for Web.

[50:09] The ones who care about terrorism. Now,

[50:11] here's a subtle distinction is voting

[50:12] for George Allen. in Ohio. Another case

[50:15] of too early to call in terms of the

[50:17] numbers, but you see a very narrow

[50:19] difference there of about a thousand

[50:20] votes separating Sherid Brown, the Labor

[50:22] Democrat. This guy is really a Labor

[50:24] Democrat, even though he went to Yale.

[50:26] And Mike DeWine, a nice fella, but

[50:28] apparently everybody thinks he's going

[50:30] to get caught in that tsunami later

[50:32] tonight. We'll have to see. That's too

[50:33] early to call, even though that race has

[50:35] been tilting in the polls for weeks now

[50:38] toward Sherid Brown. So, we got Virginia

[50:40] and Ohio. Two of the two of the big six

[50:43] we'll be watching all night are big

[50:44] seven too early to call

[50:46] >> Republican fundraisers having gone for

[50:48] high ground in Ohio several weeks ago

[50:50] reportedly at least at least and heading

[50:52] into these elections of course as Chris

[50:54] suggested in Virginia in the poll

[50:56] results the exit poll results there the

[50:58] war in Iraq a top concern of the

[50:59] American public that concern strongly

[51:01] expressed by voters today according to

[51:02] our NBC News exit poll most of those

[51:05] pled nationwide saying they do not

[51:07] approve of the war but they are divided

[51:09] certainly on what to do about The

[51:11] majority of voters, 58% disapproving of

[51:14] the conflict in Iraq, including 42% who

[51:16] say they strongly disapprove. As

[51:19] expected, Democrats and Republicans

[51:20] taking starkly different views. Little

[51:23] more than 1 in 10 Democrats, that's 12%

[51:26] there approving of the war compared with

[51:28] over 3/4 of Republicans who do approve.

[51:31] Independents today falling somewhat

[51:33] closer to Democrats in their views on

[51:35] the war. Only a third of them approving

[51:37] of it. But as we mentioned, public

[51:38] opinion is scattered. No single option

[51:40] about what to do next in Iraq attracts

[51:42] more than about a third of the voting

[51:44] public. But add those together, 60%

[51:47] favoring withdrawal of some kind, either

[51:50] partial or full, compared to 40%

[51:52] believing we should either maintain the

[51:54] current troop levels [music] or send in

[51:56] more troops and don't need to expound on

[51:58] what that could mean in terms of the

[51:59] vote if that carries into the voting

[52:01] process.

[52:01] >> You know, these polls have been

[52:02] consistent before and during the day.

[52:04] We're joined right now by New Mexico

[52:05] Governor Bill Richardson. Um, Governor,

[52:07] it's great to have you. Are you happy or

[52:09] sad? I can't read that big face of yours

[52:11] yet.

[52:13] >> Well, I'm happy because I believe uh

[52:15] Chris, what's going to happen tonight is

[52:18] Democrats are going to win a majority of

[52:20] governorships in this country. We're 22

[52:22] right now. Since 1994, we've not had a

[52:26] majority of governors. I believe we're

[52:28] going to get to 2728.

[52:31] I believe we're going to win Ohio, uh

[52:33] New York, Massachusetts,

[52:36] Arkansas. I think there's some very

[52:38] tight races where we have a shot.

[52:40] Nevada, Idaho, I think we have a shot

[52:44] also in some other Midwest states. We're

[52:46] going to retain Jennifer Granhome in

[52:48] Michigan, in Wisconsin, Iowa. These are

[52:52] three uh seats that were Democrat that

[52:54] we're going to keep. So, I believe

[52:55] that's going to be critical in the race

[52:57] for08 because governors, as you know,

[53:00] control state parties. We win Ohio.

[53:02] That's probably the battleground state.

[53:05] Thirdly, the most innovative policies

[53:07] happening in this country are in

[53:10] governorships in the states. And then 10

[53:13] out of the governors that are winning

[53:17] tonight are in red states. So that's

[53:19] fertile territory for the Democratic

[53:21] party. That's the West.

[53:23] >> You had probably the most buoyant,

[53:25] upbeat of all commercials I've seen this

[53:27] year. There were so many ratty

[53:28] commercials out there, but you had this

[53:30] one with you as the old cowpoke in full

[53:33] western regalia riding around a horse

[53:36] going into a saloon like your Matt

[53:38] Dylan. I love the closing scene where

[53:40] you're talking about how how many movie

[53:42] companies you brought to New Mexico and

[53:43] how you're going to make a movie about

[53:45] space as your next movie. What is that

[53:48] about? Was that just selling optimism or

[53:50] Yeah, optimism?

[53:53] >> That's right, Chris. I was selling

[53:55] optimism, resolving problems, we've

[53:58] created jobs, we've brought movies, uh

[54:01] we've reduced DWI. All of that was in a

[54:04] commercial, but it also pokes fun at

[54:07] myself. You know, I'm a big guy. That

[54:08] horse uh didn't make it past the

[54:11] commercial. He died right after No, I'm

[54:13] kidding. [laughter] Uh it was my horse.

[54:16] The horse helps your kid.

[54:16] >> It was my horse and and and you know, I

[54:20] I like the ride. So, I just felt the

[54:22] commercials were so negative uh all

[54:25] around me and and and just I think the

[54:27] American people I think New Mexicans

[54:29] really love the horse. I have kids

[54:31] coming up to me, parents uh you know the

[54:33] opening of the of the commercial was

[54:35] give me a milk, I go into a bar and

[54:38] that's what people like to see. They

[54:40] like to see politicians poke fun at each

[54:42] other, poke fun at themselves, but also

[54:45] be optimistic, be positive about this

[54:47] country, be patriotic, be bipartisan.

[54:50] that that was sort of

[54:51] >> well I know speaking for America

[54:53] Governor I'm hoping the Democrats can

[54:55] bring back some optimism instead of this

[54:56] no game they've been playing effectively

[54:58] and I think maybe you or Barack or

[55:00] somebody Barack Obama might restore the

[55:02] uh the lift of a driving dream again to

[55:05] this country. Thanks for coming in

[55:06] tonight Keith.

[55:07] >> Thank you very much.

[55:08] >> Late ballot machines in Cleveland

[55:10] forcing extensions of voting there till

[55:12] 9:00 Eastern time. Xerox ballots in

[55:15] Joplain. Roocalls in Illinois. How

[55:17] widespread were voting problems today?

[55:19] How might they affect tonight's

[55:21] elections? How many due to incompetence

[55:23] and due perhaps to corruption? Chip Reed

[55:25] working all these questions for us

[55:26] tonight from Washington. Chip, good

[55:28] evening.

[55:29] >> Good evening, Keith. We have seen a lot

[55:31] of problems today. Nothing catastrophic

[55:33] at this point. We've seen a lot of

[55:35] confusion over electronic voting

[55:37] machines in very long lines in places

[55:39] like Colorado, Ohio, Indiana, Texas,

[55:42] Florida, and some other states. We've

[55:44] also seen some allegations of

[55:45] intimidation. for example, in Virginia

[55:48] where some people, we don't know how

[55:49] many at this point, claim that they have

[55:51] gotten calls. In fact, we've heard audio

[55:53] of some calls of people calling and

[55:55] saying, "Don't vote. You you're not

[55:57] registered in Virginia, and if you go,

[55:59] you'll be arrested." When in fact, the

[56:00] person receiving the call was registered

[56:03] to vote in Virginia. We've also had some

[56:05] voter ID problems. A number of states

[56:07] have tightened up their voter ID laws,

[56:09] and some people have shown up and not

[56:11] realized it. In fact, the uh some very

[56:13] senior officials, the governor of South

[56:14] Carolina showed up to vote and did not

[56:16] have the right card. Uh and some other

[56:18] senior officials, one member of Congress

[56:19] showed up and did not have the right ID

[56:21] to vote. The big problem though so far

[56:23] has been electronic voting and it's

[56:25] confusion. It's relatively small

[56:27] problems, not small to people who

[56:29] couldn't wait in those long lines and

[56:30] had to leave, but not the kind of thing

[56:32] at this point that's going to change any

[56:34] results. But I tell you, Keith, the one

[56:35] thing we've learned over and over again,

[56:37] especially in Florida in 2000, is you

[56:40] don't really see the huge problems until

[56:43] there's an important race that's too

[56:45] close to call and the lawyers get

[56:47] involved. If we can get a shakeddown

[56:49] with with nothing that affects the

[56:50] outcomes, we're in good shape. Chip Reed

[56:52] working uh the vote watch for us tonight

[56:54] in Washington. Thank you, Chip. At the

[56:56] top of the hour, polls will be closing

[56:58] in some of the big states including

[56:59] Pennsylvania and Connecticut and Jersey

[57:01] and Tennessee, Missouri, and Florida.

[57:03] NBC's Chris Jansing is in Connecticut

[57:05] for us at Lieberman headquarters in that

[57:07] extraordinary three-way race for the

[57:09] Senate from Connecticut. Chris, good

[57:10] evening.

[57:12] >> Good evening to you, Keith. Well,

[57:13] Senator Lieberman and his family are

[57:14] upstairs waiting for those returns to

[57:16] come in. They are described as

[57:18] cautiously optimistic. If Joe Lieberman

[57:21] does win this, it will be an

[57:22] extraordinary turnaround from that

[57:24] shocking loss in the primary to a

[57:26] political newcomer, Ned Lamont. They

[57:28] have led in every single poll since that

[57:30] primary. So, it may lead you to ask why

[57:33] the cautious optimism. Well, a couple of

[57:35] reasons the Lieberman camp tells me.

[57:37] First of all, their polls are tracking

[57:39] this race a lot closer than the public

[57:41] polls which show him 12 points ahead.

[57:44] Second, they've been worried all along

[57:45] about his ballot position. He's no

[57:47] higher than fifth anywhere in the state.

[57:49] And as a result of that, they say

[57:50] they've been getting calls, they've been

[57:52] getting reports from some of the

[57:53] precincts, people telling them that they

[57:55] haven't been able to find Liberman on

[57:56] the ballot and didn't vote for him. So,

[57:58] there is some concern about that. Where

[58:00] will they be looking for the returns to

[58:02] come from? Certainly from the affluent

[58:04] suburbs. Since the primary, the

[58:06] strongest support for Joe Lieberman has

[58:08] come from Republicans for this Democrat.

[58:11] People who obviously are more supportive

[58:13] of his stance on the war. But the key

[58:15] may be that majority of voters in

[58:17] Connecticut, the unaffiliated, they've

[58:20] been tracking at about 51% for Joe

[58:22] Lieberman. He's going to have to hold

[58:24] that strong support. It could be a late

[58:26] night according to Joe Lieberman's press

[58:28] secretary. Keith

[58:29] >> Chris Jansing at Lieberman headquarters

[58:31] and what a situation it would be if Joe

[58:33] Lieberman wound up to be the most

[58:34] important man in a very very tight

[58:36] Senate. Thank you Chris. In New Jersey,

[58:37] it's the Democrats who faced an

[58:39] extraordinary race, a nasty race from

[58:41] Senator Bob Mendez or for Senator Bob

[58:43] Mendez and Tom Kaine Jr. the son of the

[58:46] popular former governor NBC's Ron Allen

[58:49] is at Menendez headquarters in East

[58:50] Brunswick, New Jersey. Ron, good

[58:52] evening.

[58:53] >> Good evening, Keith. The Menendez camp

[58:55] is very anxious to call this race and

[58:57] claim victory, but they're not doing it

[58:59] right away. The polls are going to close

[59:01] here very shortly. They think they're

[59:03] up. They think turnout was good and in

[59:05] their favor in the high 40% they say,

[59:08] particularly in urban areas where they

[59:09] were really trying to get out the vote.

[59:11] This, of course, is the race that the

[59:13] Democrats have to win an incumbency hold

[59:15] on to it if they have any hopes of

[59:17] claiming the entire control of the

[59:19] entire Senate. Uh Menendez has been

[59:21] fighting an uphill battle, though.

[59:22] something strange happened on the way to

[59:24] the victory his victory lap. Um and part

[59:26] of it is contained in those national

[59:27] polls. Yes, the public is concerned

[59:29] about national issues like Iraq and the

[59:31] Bush administration which Mendez has run

[59:33] against. But corruption is also a big

[59:35] concern particularly here in New Jersey.

[59:37] And that's the issue that Tom Kaine's

[59:39] Jr. has seized on. He has tried to

[59:41] associate Mendez with New Jerseyy's

[59:44] repeatedly corrupt political culture.

[59:47] And Menendez comes from Hudson County in

[59:49] the northern part of the state, which

[59:50] frankly most people in New Jersey think

[59:52] is a political cesspool. And I can

[59:54] attest to that from personal experience

[59:55] because I was born and raised in Hudson

[59:57] County and I've been hearing this all my

[59:59] life. Um, the Kane camp made some

[60:02] complaints early on about some voting

[60:03] irregularities. They were saying that

[60:05] there were some voting machines that

[60:06] were blocking voters who wanted to vote

[60:09] for Kaine. They were locked up Menendez.

[60:11] They said the AG here, the attorney

[60:13] general, has investigated those claims.

[60:15] They found nothing wrong um so far of

[60:17] major consequence. The other concern

[60:19] here we're hearing is that a lot of

[60:20] voters are concerned about that the

[60:22] whole thing was so negative. They're

[60:23] disgusted with it. So whoever they're

[60:24] voting for, they're holding their nose

[60:26] as they do it. Ron Allen and East

[60:29] Brunswick, New Jersey. Great. Thanks.

[60:30] Polls nearly closing now, closing as we

[60:32] speak in Pennsylvania, Connecticut,

[60:34] Maryland, Tennessee, and other key

[60:36] states. We'll be right back with the

[60:37] results. You're watching live coverage

[60:38] of Decision 2006 on MSNBC. [music]

[60:47] >> [music]

[61:08] >> Welcome back to MSNBC decision [music]

[61:10] 2006 coverage. I'm Chris Matthews here

[61:12] with Keith Overberman and we have

[61:14] results. First from Connecticut where

[61:15] it's too early to call. Now let's look

[61:17] at some other races coming in right now

[61:23] in Pennsylvania. It's too early to call

[61:24] in that hot Senate race up there where

[61:26] Bob Casey Jr. is taking on the incumbent

[61:28] Rick Santorum. Too early to call in

[61:30] Pennsylvania. That Senate race

[61:34] in Maryland. The other hot race

[61:36] involving Michael Steele, the lieutenant

[61:37] governor, going up against Ben Carden,

[61:39] the congressman from Baltimore. Too

[61:41] early to call there. That's one of the

[61:43] hot races we'll be watching throughout

[61:44] the night. In Missouri, too early to

[61:47] call in the US Senate race there between

[61:49] Democrat Clara McKascal taking on

[61:51] incumbent Republican Jim Talent. All

[61:54] these too early to call tonight. Maybe

[61:56] we're all being careful, but let's get

[61:57] it right the first time. Too early to

[61:59] call in the Senate race in New Jersey.

[62:01] we just mentioned with Bob Menendez, the

[62:03] appointed senator, being challenged by

[62:05] Tom Kaine Jr., the son of the former

[62:07] very popular Republican governor. All

[62:10] too early to call. Another one too early

[62:11] to call in Tennessee where Harold Ford

[62:14] Jr. is taking on Bob Corker, the former

[62:17] mayor of Chattanooga, the Republican

[62:20] candidate. It's going to be too early to

[62:22] call there. I'll bet for a while all the

[62:24] races too early to call. We've been

[62:25] going, Keith. We've been hitting all the

[62:27] top Senate races of those top seven that

[62:29] are going to decide the Senate. all too

[62:30] early to call. Here's a projected

[62:32] winner, however, not in the hot race

[62:33] category. Thomas Carper, the former

[62:35] governor, the the US Senate incumbent

[62:39] running for re-election. He's a he's a

[62:40] Democrat, and that one was not going to

[62:42] be close, and it apparently was not.

[62:44] He's a projected winner when all the

[62:45] votes are counted. NBC says Tom Carper

[62:49] will be reelected in that state. Here in

[62:51] Florida, another one not expected to be

[62:53] close. Now, this is interesting as a

[62:55] novelty act perhaps because Bill Nelson

[62:57] was running for reelection and we

[62:59] declare him now the projected winner

[63:00] when all the votes are counted. He was

[63:02] being challenged by Katherine Harris.

[63:04] You remember her from Saturday Night

[63:06] Live, the ca the St. John Nits may made

[63:09] fun of so often on Saturday Night Live.

[63:12] Uh she was defeated I apparently I guess

[63:14] handily because this boat is coming in

[63:16] just now and already the projected

[63:18] winners the incumbent Bill Nelson

[63:20] beating the very fashionable but not

[63:22] politically successful Katherine Harris.

[63:24] Here's another race not expected to be

[63:26] close. It probably never will be. Ted

[63:28] Kennedy originally elected to fill his

[63:30] brother's Senate seat in 1962.

[63:33] All these years later in 2006 he remains

[63:37] the senior senator from Massachusetts.

[63:39] Ted Kennedy, projected winner in that

[63:41] race when all the votes are counted.

[63:43] Here is one of the moderate Republicans

[63:45] surviving apparently in the Northeast.

[63:48] Olympia Snow, who's been a quite a

[63:50] veteran Republican senator, one of the

[63:52] few moderates to liberal Republicans in

[63:54] the Northeast. Projected winner

[63:56] according to NBC when all the votes are

[63:58] counted Olympia Snow. Again, not a close

[64:00] one. And here's an old favorite from

[64:02] Hardball. He's been on so many times he

[64:04] should get paid. This is Trent Lot. Once

[64:06] a leader of the Republican party in the

[64:08] Senate, never so happy as he is now as a

[64:11] rank and file critic of the leadership.

[64:13] It makes his heart swell every day that

[64:15] something goes wrong in the leadership

[64:17] in that Senate. Trent Lot, what a

[64:20] character he is. Former Dixieat

[64:21] Republican now apparently reelected

[64:24] according to our projections. Here's

[64:26] another one just to remind you that too

[64:27] close to call, too early to call. In

[64:29] this case, Virginia, way too early to

[64:31] call. Look at the numbers separating

[64:32] them. Just about 1,200 votes, 1240

[64:34] votes. That is a tight one in Virginia.

[64:37] Uh 25%. Well, that's not 25% of the vote

[64:39] yet. [music] Obviously, that is all. It

[64:41] might be though kind of thing about

[64:42] 300,000 votes a piece. That's too early

[64:44] to call. And this one's also too early

[64:46] to call. Um just a handful of votes in

[64:49] in Ohio right now. Nothing to say there

[64:51] yet of any serious import. That's going

[64:54] to be a close race as well perhaps, but

[64:56] we'll see. Shared Brown taking on Mike

[64:58] DeWine, the incumbent too early to call

[65:00] in Ohio.

[65:01] >> Katherine Harris in Florida. Some

[65:03] benefit from uh from being on Saturday

[65:05] Night Live and some do not apparently.

[65:07] >> Has it hurt me a bit?

[65:08] >> Has it hurt you a bit? Let's check the

[65:10] balance of power. Again, we're looking

[65:11] for this and and you know the number by

[65:13] heart by now. 15 in the House. The

[65:15] Democrats looking for a net gain of

[65:17] that. Six in the Senate. So far

[65:18] unchanged to this hour, 25 to be

[65:21] decided. Republicans 43, Democrats

[65:23] essentially, if you want to call

[65:24] Democrats and independents. Mr. Sanders

[65:27] Vermont a uh uh the [music] part of the

[65:29] opposition. Republicans 43 opposition 32

[65:32] at this hour with more to come obviously

[65:35] as the night wears on. And let's take a

[65:37] look at some of the governor races.

[65:38] They're beginning to come along. No

[65:40] surprise in Connecticut where the

[65:42] incumbent Jod Re has defeated or will

[65:44] defeat when the votes are counted our

[65:46] projected NBC News winner. Uh Jod Re

[65:49] defeating John Dphano in in Connecticut.

[65:52] In Pennsylvania likely to have turned

[65:54] out this way and we believe it will when

[65:55] all the votes are counted. Ed Randelle,

[65:58] the incumbent former Pennsylvania former

[66:00] Philadelphia mayor and Pennsylvania

[66:02] governor expected to have defeated his

[66:04] Republican challenger, the former

[66:05] football star Lynn Swan in

[66:07] Massachusetts. And this is one where the

[66:09] Democrats are looking for four pickups

[66:11] to take most [music] of the governor's

[66:12] uh homes and houses. Uh this would be a

[66:15] pickup with Mitt Romney having not

[66:17] sought a second term. Dval Patrick, the

[66:19] former US assistant attorney general in

[66:21] the Clinton administration, would

[66:23] become, if our projection is correct,

[66:25] the second African-American to be

[66:27] elected governor in the country's

[66:28] history. And in New Hampshire, not a

[66:30] surprise, John Lynch, the Democrat

[66:32] incumbent, uh, knocking off, as we

[66:35] expect when the votes are counted there.

[66:37] Jim Coburn, the Republican challenger in

[66:39] New Hampshire. And Tennessee, again, not

[66:41] a surprise. This would not be a pickup.

[66:43] the incumbent uh Democrat defeating his

[66:46] Republican challenger uh solidly the

[66:48] expectation once those votes are all

[66:49] counted. Chris

[66:50] >> Keith, we're joined right now by NBC's

[66:52] Nightly News anchor Brian Williams, the

[66:54] moderator of Meet the Press, Tim

[66:55] Russard, and NBC's Tom Bro in order of

[66:58] seniority. Let's go to Tom Bro. Tom, are

[67:01] you surprised by the word corruption as

[67:03] it's popped up in these exit polls? Uh,

[67:06] I guess I'm surprised by the emphasis on

[67:08] it. Although, if you play the tape back

[67:09] in your own mind, there's been an awful

[67:11] lot of reporting about corruption in the

[67:13] course of the last year. And it fits in

[67:15] with what I've been hearing as I go

[67:16] around the country, which is that

[67:17] nothing works in Washington anymore.

[67:19] It's a dysfunctional Congress. It's a

[67:21] dysfunctional federal government. And

[67:23] people I called it the fed up factor,

[67:25] Chris. There were an awful lot of people

[67:27] across this country in both parties who

[67:29] were simply fed up and corruption would

[67:32] feed that.

[67:33] >> Let me go to Brian Williams. Brian, it's

[67:35] interesting uh the uh positive uh

[67:38] relatively positive words being spoken

[67:40] in these exit polls about the economy.

[67:42] >> Yeah, that's right. First of all, a

[67:43] minor point on seniority. Russard's got

[67:45] me, so we'll just go.

[67:46] >> I broke the tradition order this once,

[67:49] but I'll take it. [laughter] Um well,

[67:51] that's right. I mean, look at the

[67:53] dichotomy there. You've got a housing

[67:55] market that's positively scaring some

[67:57] people, unless you're looking to to get

[68:00] a good deal. You've got Wall Street uh

[68:02] hovering around that 12,000 mark. They

[68:05] were able to beat back a real gas price

[68:09] problem uh midsummer. So, the economy

[68:12] has not been listed. It's not been able

[68:15] to crack through Iraq on a lot of these

[68:17] polls, depending on where you travel in

[68:19] the country. Last 10 days, I've been in

[68:22] Tennessee and Ohio checking in on these

[68:24] uh two great Senate races tonight. So it

[68:27] the economy has become a different and

[68:30] interesting answer during this campaign.

[68:32] >> Tim, we were talking earlier, I was

[68:33] talking earlier with Tom about the way

[68:35] you're looking at the future electoral

[68:37] reality of this country, the states that

[68:39] are going to be in play, the ones that

[68:41] are not quite nailed down by the red or

[68:42] blue designation out there in the west.

[68:45] Do you see anything yet there tonight to

[68:47] show that those states could well go

[68:48] either way for maybe not for Hillary,

[68:50] but for any Democrat? Well, it is

[68:52] interesting looking at the map, Chris,

[68:54] how many seats are competitive. And it

[68:56] means that the Democrats can in fact

[68:58] expand their base beyond the Northeast

[69:01] and the West Coast, play very well in

[69:03] the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains. And

[69:05] it's the Republicans now who are on the

[69:07] defensive trying to protect their

[69:09] southern base and a few governorships in

[69:11] the Rocky Mountains. Also, take the

[69:13] state of Ohio. We just projected a new

[69:15] Democratic governor in Ohio. If John Ky

[69:18] had carried Ohio, he'd be president of

[69:19] the United States. If you have a

[69:21] Democratic governor and perhaps a

[69:23] Democratic senator, a new Democratic

[69:24] congressman, that is a major step in the

[69:27] right direction for 2008 for the

[69:29] Democratic party.

[69:30] >> Let me go right now to Brian again. The

[69:32] question of uh of corruption, it's

[69:34] interesting that the two people that had

[69:35] a hand in those close states in ' 04 and

[69:38] O, Katherine Harris and Ken Blackwell

[69:40] were blanked apparently today.

[69:43] >> Secretaries of state. That's right. And

[69:45] uh we'll let people make up their own

[69:47] stories. We'll learn a lot more about

[69:50] the Ohio vote when we when we go into it

[69:53] further. Uh but you saw what happened

[69:55] with the president yesterday in the

[69:57] state of Florida. You saw and heard Carl

[70:00] Ro's remarks. The Ohio race got

[70:03] particularly ugly at the end in the

[70:06] media war with Strickland coming out

[70:09] tonight. Here's that Ohio Senate race

[70:12] that is too early to call tonight. So

[70:15] much time, money, and effort has gone

[70:16] into that. It's why they remain too

[70:19] fastened.