The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour (PBS) - 1992-03-11

Channel: malgent

Transcript

Language: English (YouTube automatic captions)

[0:05] Good evening. I'm Jim Lair in

[0:07] Washington.

[0:08] >> And I'm Judy Woodruff in New York. After

[0:10] the news summary, we turn to a newsmaker

[0:12] interview with Paul Sunis, who says Bill

[0:15] Clinton is not electable. Then, analysis

[0:18] of the Democratic and the Republican

[0:20] campaigns from our team of Gergen and

[0:22] Shields plus three. And finally,

[0:25] essayist Annne Taylor Fleming takes a

[0:28] hard look at her fellow journalists.

[0:32] Part of helping the world live and

[0:34] communicate better is keeping it well

[0:36] informed.

[0:38] That's why funding for the McNeel

[0:41] NewsHour is provided by AT&T

[0:46] and by PepsiCo.

[0:53] PepsiCo

[0:55] >> and by the Corporation for Public

[0:57] Broadcasting

[0:59] and viewers like you.

[1:01] >> Members of the United Nations Security

[1:03] Council took on Iraq again today. They

[1:06] held a special open session in New York

[1:08] to criticize Iraq for not meeting Gulf

[1:10] War ceasefire obligations. Iraq's deputy

[1:14] prime minister was present. The council

[1:16] president said Iraq faced grave

[1:18] consequences if it failed to cooperate

[1:20] with the UN and destroying its weapons

[1:22] of mass destruction among other things.

[1:24] US ambassador Thomas Pickering accused

[1:27] Iraq of playing a game of cat and mouse.

[1:30] >> Unfortunately from the first Iraq has

[1:33] tried to obiscate and evade its

[1:36] obligations.

[1:38] The council agreed in resolution 687

[1:40] that if the Gulf region is to enjoy

[1:42] peace and security, Iraq's weapons of

[1:45] mass destruction and ballistic missiles

[1:48] must be permanently eliminated. This

[1:51] requires Iraq's cooperation, including

[1:54] the full and complete disclosure of its

[1:56] weapons programs. The record of Iraq's

[1:59] failure in this regard is unescapable,

[2:02] clear, and serious. Pickering also said

[2:05] Iraq's human rights record was abysmal.

[2:08] The Iraqi deputy prime minister, Tariq

[2:10] Aziz, denied the charges against his

[2:12] country. He attacked the security

[2:14] council, in particular its five

[2:16] permanent members, and claimed the Iraqi

[2:18] people were suffering because of UN

[2:21] economic sanctions.

[2:24] The question constantly asked by 18

[2:27] million Iraqis together with millions

[2:31] more of honest free people in the world

[2:33] is for how long will this iniquitous

[2:36] siege continue to be imposed upon Iraq

[2:38] and for how long will the sanctions

[2:41] committee continue to hold the absolute

[2:43] and arbitrary powers to determine the

[2:45] needs of the Iraqi people? How can the

[2:47] right of veto given to five member

[2:50] states since the founding of the United

[2:52] Nations organization be interpreted in

[2:54] such a way as to be used in determining

[2:57] whether a people should be allowed to

[2:58] purchase soap, printing paper, or

[3:01] children's toys?

[3:03] >> Pickerine rejected those claims and

[3:05] joined with the British ambassador and

[3:07] saying force might be used against Iraq.

[3:10] At a news conference in Washington,

[3:11] President Bush echoed that threat when

[3:14] asked about compromising with Iraq. I

[3:17] would just simply stay with the views

[3:18] that have been so clearly expressed in a

[3:21] unanimous fashion uh by the by the

[3:24] security council itself and there will

[3:27] be no compromise on the part of the

[3:28] United States uh with full uh compliance

[3:33] with the UN resolutions. Iraq is

[3:35] concealing uh and they've got to stop

[3:37] doing that. In an electoral year, sir,

[3:40] how far are you going to go to to to

[3:42] have them comply? I mean, to comply with

[3:44] the resolutions where you you're I mean

[3:47] going to an election, are you ready to

[3:49] uh to to have an attack against Iraq?

[3:52] >> Let's let's simply say I'd like to see

[3:54] them comply with the resolutions. It is

[3:56] in their clear interest to comply with

[3:58] the resolutions. And if they don't

[4:00] comply with the resolutions, then we

[4:02] will complic contemplate uh all

[4:04] alternatives. The US Defense Department

[4:07] plans to sell $2.5 billion worth of

[4:10] missiles to Kuwait. Officials said the

[4:12] sale would include both Patriots and

[4:14] Hawk anti-aircraft missiles. Patriots

[4:17] were used to shoot down Iraqi Scud

[4:19] missiles in the Gulf War. Congress now

[4:22] has 30 days to allow or to reject that

[4:24] sale. Judy,

[4:26] >> the leading presidential candidates

[4:28] turned their focus today to next

[4:30] Tuesday's primaries in Michigan and

[4:32] Illinois. Bill Clinton campaigned in

[4:34] Chicago after winning all of yesterday's

[4:37] southern primaries. He told reporters

[4:40] this race has a long way to go. Paul

[4:42] Sundis was also in Illinois today after

[4:45] winning primaries in his home state of

[4:47] Massachusetts and neighboring Rhode

[4:49] Island as well as caucuses in Delaware.

[4:51] He predicted success in the Midwest and

[4:54] told the NewsHour in an interview we'll

[4:55] be airing shortly that he doesn't think

[4:57] Clinton is electable in the fall. Jerry

[5:00] Brown campaigned in Michigan today,

[5:02] including a stop at an auto plant in

[5:04] Dearbornne. He failed to win any

[5:07] primaries or caucuses yesterday. On the

[5:09] Republican side, Pat Buchanan lost all

[5:12] eight of yesterday's Republican

[5:14] primaries to President Bush. Buchanan

[5:17] said he was not ready to give up the

[5:19] race, but quote, "If the time comes, we

[5:22] will do it gracefully."

[5:23] >> There will be national elections in

[5:25] Britain on April 9th, just four weeks

[5:28] from now. British Prime Minister John

[5:30] Major announced that date today. Major's

[5:32] Conservative Party is facing its

[5:34] toughest challenge since it came to

[5:36] power 13 years ago. Polls have it

[5:38] running neck andneck with the opposition

[5:40] Labor Party. President Bush today

[5:43] nominated Daniel Golden to be the new

[5:45] administrator of NASA. Golden is a vice

[5:48] president of the California-based TRW

[5:51] firms Space and Technology Group. If

[5:54] confirmed, he will replace former

[5:56] astronaut Richard Truly, who resigned

[5:59] last month. Truly said he was forced to

[6:02] step down because of policy differences

[6:04] with the Bush administration. That's it

[6:06] for our news summary. Just ahead on the

[6:08] NewsHour, a Super Tuesday wrap-up with a

[6:11] Paul Sunis newsmaker interview, analysis

[6:14] from Gurgen and Shields, plus three, and

[6:17] an Anne Taylor Fleming essay.

[6:29] Super Tuesday is our main focus tonight

[6:31] and in a moment we will hear from Paul

[6:34] Sanongas. But first, a quick recap of

[6:36] yesterday's results. On the Republican

[6:38] side, President Bush chocked up wins in

[6:41] all eight of the Republican primaries.

[6:43] Yesterday's victories give Mr. Bush a

[6:46] commanding lead in the delegate count

[6:48] with 560 to Buchanan's 46, Duke's

[6:52] nothing and uncommitted six. Bill

[6:55] Clinton won a clean sweep of the six

[6:57] southern state primaries, Florida,

[7:00] Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee,

[7:02] Oklahoma, and Texas. He also took home a

[7:05] majority of delegates from caucuses in

[7:08] Missouri, and Hawaii. Paul Sa scored

[7:11] primary wins in his home state of

[7:13] Massachusetts and in Rhode Island. He

[7:15] also won the bulk of the delegates in

[7:17] the caucuses in Delaware. The

[7:19] allimportant delegate totals on the

[7:21] Democratic side now stand at 757 for

[7:25] Clinton, Sus 345,

[7:28] Brown 76, Senators Carrie and Harkin

[7:32] 113, and Uncommitted 336.

[7:37] Now we turn to a newsmaker interview

[7:39] with former Senator Paul Sanis. I talked

[7:42] with him this morning in his hometown of

[7:44] Lowel, Massachusetts.

[7:47] Senator Sonis, thank you for being with

[7:48] us.

[7:49] >> Thank you.

[7:50] >> Congratulations on your wins in

[7:51] Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the

[7:53] caucuses in in Delaware. Uh however, uh

[7:57] as as we well know by now, you were

[8:00] wiped out just about everywhere else. Uh

[8:02] including in Florida, where you

[8:04] campaigned very hard. You spent several

[8:06] days there. You spent, we're told,

[8:08] around half a million dollars in

[8:09] advertising. How disappointed are you

[8:12] specifically about that state?

[8:14] >> Well, let's look at Florida in some

[8:16] perspective. If you go back to the

[8:18] December caucuses, the straw poll in

[8:20] Florida, I lost that 52-2. So, I mean,

[8:23] that's where we began. We've been

[8:24] outspent and outendors and I don't do

[8:27] not have the Democratic establishment

[8:29] with me, but we gained 32 points in

[8:32] those two months, and Bill Clinton

[8:33] basically stayed where he was. So once

[8:36] you get outside of home turf, outside of

[8:39] my home turf and Bill Clinton's home

[8:41] turf, in eight contest I've won six of

[8:43] them. So 85% of the South is now behind

[8:46] me. Now we get into states where there's

[8:48] neutral territory.

[8:49] >> But can you really say Florida was home

[8:50] turf for Bill Clinton. What three4s of

[8:52] the people who live there came from

[8:53] somewhere else. So many of the voters

[8:55] had the same had the profile of voter

[8:57] that you've done well with, the better

[8:59] educated voter, somewhat better than

[9:02] average income voter. Wasn't that a real

[9:04] test of your message down there?

[9:06] >> Yeah. But again, if that was true, then

[9:09] the 522 that I had to endure back in

[9:12] December, you got to remember we started

[9:14] with no organization. We had no money

[9:16] through all of 1991 and into January of

[9:19] 1992. So, we simply did not have the

[9:22] resources to to be on the ground. You

[9:23] cannot start from ground zero. The only

[9:26] reason we did well there, by the way,

[9:27] was that seven major newspapers endorsed

[9:29] me. And that's what gave us the kick at

[9:32] the end to be competitive. But now we

[9:34] get into states where we're all even. I

[9:37] mean, I won Delaware. I won Utah. I won

[9:40] Washington State. I won Arizona. I mean,

[9:42] the same kind of profiles you're talking

[9:44] about where we was more neutral in terms

[9:46] of the organization.

[9:48] >> Well, let's talk about the the message,

[9:49] Senator. you have done as you just said

[9:51] you've done well in these states and

[9:53] again and again the profile of the voter

[9:54] you're winning is better educated uh a

[9:57] little bit better than average income

[9:58] but the constitu the traditional

[10:00] so-called traditional Democratic

[10:02] constituency uh black voters you're

[10:04] winning less than what 20% of those uh

[10:07] elderly senior citizens and the the the

[10:10] white uh bluecollar workingclass voter

[10:13] you're not doing well among those groups

[10:15] can you win the nomination if you don't

[10:18] somehow broaden your message or broaden

[10:20] your appeal rather to reach those people

[10:22] >> those groups you just talked about I won

[10:25] in my home region and in the neutral

[10:27] states what's happening you're looking

[10:28] at just what happened in the south I

[10:30] grant you that in the south I have the

[10:32] disadvantage but let's look beyond that

[10:35] the Republicans are going to be the

[10:37] endgame here who's going to beat George

[10:39] Bush the fact is the poll that came out

[10:41] two days ago I'm the strongest Democrat

[10:44] against George Bush precisely because I

[10:47] can appeal to independents and moderate

[10:49] Republicans

[10:50] So once you get past the nomination,

[10:52] who's the strongest Democrat to run

[10:54] against George Bush? It's the

[10:55] constituencies in the middle. It is the

[10:57] independents in the center that's going

[10:59] to be the swing. And that's my

[11:01] constituency.

[11:01] >> Well, you said you did better against

[11:03] George Bush, but that was really within

[11:04] the margin of error. Wasn't that just

[11:05] two or three points in that poll that

[11:07] paired you against the president?

[11:08] >> That's true. But if you look at where I

[11:10] began, you got to remember I've been

[11:11] outspent three to one. If you look at

[11:14] governors, congressmen, senators, they

[11:16] haven't endorsed me. I'm running against

[11:18] a Democratic establishment. But despite

[11:20] that, despite being written off by the

[11:22] press, as you know, uh, when I began

[11:24] this thing, I'm the strongest Democrat.

[11:26] And so, what's going to happen is

[11:28] people, there has to be a message. The

[11:30] message is taking hold. That message is

[11:32] no Santa Claus, no panda bear. There are

[11:35] hard choices out there. And I have to be

[11:37] the candidate of those hard choices.

[11:39] Clearly, I got hurt in the South because

[11:41] I was for a gradual increase in the

[11:44] gasoline tax and I got hurt by that. But

[11:46] you have to have an energy policy. And I

[11:49] don't want to send our sons and

[11:51] daughters to die in the Persian Gulf

[11:52] because I was afraid to tell people

[11:54] about the hard choices on energy policy.

[11:56] >> When you accused uh Governor, the

[11:58] campaign got pretty negative, especially

[12:00] in Florida. You accused, as you just

[12:01] said, Governor Clinton of pandering. He

[12:03] says that you were pandering when you

[12:05] went to Texas and told the oil and gas

[12:07] producers that they ought to have, have

[12:08] what is it, $450 million worth of tax

[12:10] breaks. He said that's something you'd

[12:11] never even mentioned before.

[12:13] >> Well, the fact is I pay for that. We

[12:15] have no energy policy and we're losing

[12:17] the small business person in the oil and

[12:19] gas industry. And the other part of it

[12:21] was to encourage the use of a natural

[12:23] gas vehicles for for an environmental

[12:26] policy. But I pay for that with my

[12:28] gasoline tax. So when I've come up with

[12:30] something, this is how I pay for it

[12:32] rather than what Bill has been doing is

[12:34] for example tax credits for children,

[12:37] the middle class tax cut. Look at the

[12:39] Seawolf. You know, he

[12:41] >> the submarine.

[12:41] >> The submarine. I mean, the seawill

[12:44] submarine that even George Bush is

[12:45] opposed to, Bill Clinton is for. Why?

[12:48] Because they built it where? In Rhode

[12:50] Island and in Connecticut, in my home

[12:53] turf to try to eat away. If if somebody

[12:55] can cross that line, Judy, there's

[12:57] nothing that's not that's not sacred. It

[13:00] is a very difficult line to cross.

[13:02] >> But one of the most effective arguments

[13:03] apparently that Governor Clinton seems

[13:05] to be making against you is you're too

[13:07] pro business. He says, I mean, you've

[13:09] heard this. He says, "Your ideas are

[13:10] simply a repeat of the failed Republican

[13:13] policies of the 1980s." He says, "It's

[13:15] more trickle down. You're helping

[13:16] business first and hoping that somehow

[13:19] it's going to get to the people later."

[13:21] Well, let's What I'm in favor is an

[13:23] investmentbased strategy. Bill Clinton

[13:25] wants a middle class tax cut. No one No

[13:28] one argues middle class tax cut is going

[13:31] to add one penny to our competitive

[13:32] advantage visav Japan. Why did I get the

[13:35] endorsements in Bill Clinton's home turf

[13:39] of the p the Atlanta Constitution, seven

[13:41] major papers in Florida, papers in

[13:44] Knoxville, in Nashville, in San Antonio

[13:47] because my economic strategy is simply

[13:49] better economics.

[13:50] >> But he also has endorsed some of these

[13:52] business uh incentives uh various

[13:56] various uh tax incentives, tax uh breaks

[13:59] for business. But he says at the same

[14:01] time he thinks we need to move

[14:02] aggressively to help the middle class

[14:05] which he says you haven't done. In fact

[14:06] he said uh just last night he said he

[14:09] said uh Senator Sonis wants the hard

[14:12] choices all the burden all the pain to

[14:14] fall on the middle class. He said these

[14:16] are the people who suffered in the last

[14:17] decade.

[14:18] >> Well let's look at Bill Clinton's

[14:20] record. What did he pass in Arkansas? A

[14:22] sales tax including food.

[14:26] That's the record number one. Secondly,

[14:28] the middle class tax cut is 97 cents a

[14:31] day. Doesn't give you anything to be

[14:34] competitive. If people want a Santa

[14:36] Claus, I'm not the candidate, Judy. I'm

[14:38] going to give people the hard truth.

[14:40] This is where we have to go. Fact is, he

[14:42] looked at Jack Kennedy back in 1963.

[14:45] What he said, what I'm saying is exactly

[14:47] the same thing. You have to take your

[14:48] money and put it into the

[14:50] infrastructure, put it into the

[14:51] manufacturing base. The MIT report said

[14:54] it very well. If you wish to live well,

[14:56] you must produce well. and we're losing

[14:58] our manufacturing base. When we do that,

[15:00] there's no future.

[15:01] >> But again, specifically, what about his

[15:03] charge that, you know, we've tried the

[15:05] the the the economic policies of helping

[15:07] business, we gave them across the board.

[15:10] We we did away with capital gains taxes

[15:13] and still we are in the situation we are

[15:15] in now with jobs being lost rather than

[15:17] jobs being created. He's saying, "What's

[15:19] different about what you're proposing?"

[15:20] >> The Reagan Bush was trickle down. You

[15:23] simply cut taxes and magically it works

[15:25] itself out. That's not what I'm talking

[15:26] about. You target your investment to the

[15:29] engines that drive the economy, the

[15:30] manufacturing base. Look at Japan. I

[15:33] mean, this is not rocket science. In

[15:35] Japan, there's venture capital, there's

[15:37] equity capital, they grow companies. Why

[15:40] are we in trouble today? You think

[15:41] giving a middle class tax cut? Does it

[15:44] make us competitive? No. Where did that

[15:46] come from? Came from the polling data. I

[15:48] saw the same data. That is in fact

[15:51] what's going on.

[15:52] But but what's different about what

[15:54] you're proposing from what the

[15:56] Republicans were proposing?

[15:57] >> Let's take capital gains. Josh Bush says

[15:59] you get a capital gains tax no matter

[16:01] what you invest in. You invest in a

[16:03] racehorse in art collection real estate,

[16:05] you get a capital gains tax. It's got

[16:07] nothing to do with the engine that

[16:09] drives the economy. If you don't put

[16:11] money into that engine, Judy, there's no

[16:12] future. There's no venture capital, no

[16:15] equity capital. from a small person, a

[16:17] man or woman in a garage around the

[16:19] market today with a great idea for a new

[16:21] company is starving. They're going to do

[16:23] two things. They're either die off or

[16:25] they're going to sell that technology to

[16:27] foreigners. Coming up are two states

[16:29] where the labor vote, the not just

[16:31] organizing vote is very important. Now,

[16:33] among other things, you have said you

[16:35] would not go along with legislation

[16:36] banning permanent replacement for

[16:38] striking workers. How much of a problem

[16:40] do you think that's going to be for you?

[16:42] >> That's going to be a problem. But again,

[16:44] I want to be in the White House with my

[16:45] principles intact. I'm not going to

[16:47] pander. I'm not going to say, "Well, if

[16:49] that's what you want, I'm for it." The

[16:51] fact is, everybody who looks at the

[16:52] American economy understands you need

[16:54] less confrontation and more

[16:56] accommodation coming together between

[16:57] labor and business. So, I will not be in

[17:00] favor of something which in essence

[17:02] gives people incentive to have more

[17:04] confrontation. So, I support

[17:05] arbitration. That's where this country

[17:07] has to go. I recognize the price that I

[17:10] pay for it, but again, I'm not going to

[17:12] pander. I need to have a mandate to run

[17:15] this country in the direction that it

[17:17] has to go. And without that mandate,

[17:19] then it no sense of me being the

[17:20] president.

[17:21] >> There has been considerable uh uh

[17:25] comment among Democratic Party uh

[17:28] officials, state chairman, and so forth

[17:30] about Paul Sanis can't win the South. If

[17:33] he's the nominee, there's no way we're

[17:35] going to win the South. And if we don't

[17:37] win the South, we're not going to win

[17:38] this election. What do you say to them?

[17:40] >> Well, again, I take you back to the

[17:42] poll. I'm the strongest Democrat in the

[17:44] poll against George Bush. Secondly, I'm

[17:46] not carrying baggage. Bill Clinton is

[17:49] just one story after another. You don't

[17:50] think the Republicans are doing all the

[17:52] research into all those things? You

[17:54] know, when Bob Kerry got out, he said

[17:57] that Bill Clinton was not electable. And

[18:00] I agree, you cannot carry all that

[18:02] baggage. You know, I haven't gone after

[18:04] Bill Clinton and all these issues on his

[18:06] on his own, you know, personal life,

[18:07] etc. The Republicans are not going to be

[18:09] so gental in their approach.

[18:11] >> Why haven't you gone after him on these

[18:13] things if you think he's vulnerable on

[18:14] them?

[18:15] >> Because I have a message to the extent

[18:17] that I lose the capacity to deliver my

[18:19] message to tell people about the hard

[18:20] choices that I'm not define.

[18:23] >> But he says those stories, I mean, he's

[18:25] come up with a defense uh uh on every

[18:27] one of them. He explained that he didn't

[18:29] avoid the military draft. He says uh

[18:31] that yes, there have been some problems

[18:32] in his marriage, but those stories are

[18:34] just not true about marital infidelity

[18:36] and so on. So why do you think he's

[18:38] vulnerable? What

[18:40] >> it's the accumulation? I mean, it's the

[18:42] explanations cannot forever go on. I

[18:45] mean, the fact that he had a business

[18:46] relationship with somebody that he

[18:48] regulated, I mean, the SNL issue, it's a

[18:51] serious issue come the fall. If you have

[18:53] Bill Clinton as a candidate, that's

[18:55] neutralized. I mean, how does he then

[18:57] argue against the SNL crisis given the

[19:00] relationship that he was involved with?

[19:02] >> But it sounds like you're saying there's

[19:04] more there in on all of those issues

[19:06] that or charges that have been raised

[19:08] against him than we've heard so far

[19:09] because you're saying the Republicans

[19:10] are out there digging up more

[19:12] information.

[19:12] >> Judy, you know, they're out there doing

[19:14] that. What the Republicans are saying

[19:16] privately to themselves, don't knock

[19:17] Bill Clinton. We want him to be the

[19:19] nominee. You I don't have an army of

[19:21] people going out doing research. We're

[19:23] not going to do that. But the fact is

[19:25] already even though he's outspent me

[19:27] enormously and has a Democratic

[19:29] establishment on his side, I'm ahead of

[19:31] him against George Bush because my

[19:33] economics, the hard choice economics

[19:36] appeals to independents and moderate

[19:38] Republicans. Those people want a home. I

[19:41] can give them a home. If you do the

[19:42] normal Democratic, you know, tax credit

[19:44] for this, middle class tax cut program

[19:47] for this program for that, the Seawolf,

[19:48] you name it, we're not going to get

[19:50] those people.

[19:51] >> Last question. How well do you need to

[19:53] do next week to continue? Because at

[19:54] some point you begin to fall so far

[19:56] behind in delegates that it becomes

[20:00] pretty well impossible to catch up.

[20:02] >> Well, as I said, 85% of the South is

[20:04] behind me. So, from now on, it's all

[20:05] neutral territory. So, we can pick up.

[20:07] We have to do well on next Tuesday.

[20:09] There's no question about that. We have

[20:11] to be very competitive. But the longer

[20:13] we survive, the money's coming in now,

[20:15] the way it wasn't before, we think we

[20:17] can be competitive. So, we had to

[20:19] survive Super Tuesday. We clearly did

[20:22] that. Now, let's get on to neutral

[20:23] territory and we'll do fine.

[20:25] >> Well, Senator Sus, we thank you for

[20:27] being with us.

[20:27] >> Thank you, J.

[20:29] >> Still to come on the NewsHour tonight,

[20:31] full analysis of yesterday's election

[20:33] results and an Anne Taylor Fleming

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[29:58] >> Crosby, Stills and Nash.

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[30:34] Now, some analysis of the Super Tuesday

[30:36] election results. Gergen and Shields are

[30:38] here. David Gergen, editor at large of

[30:40] US News and World Report. Mark Shields

[30:43] is a syndicated columnist. They are

[30:45] joined by three others tonight.

[30:46] Democratic campaign strategist Wendy

[30:49] Sherman, Republican strategist Ed

[30:51] Rollins and Eddie Williams, head of the

[30:53] Joint Center for Political and Economic

[30:55] Studies, a research organization which

[30:57] focuses on black policy issues. First on

[30:59] the Democrats, David, how close is Bill

[31:02] Clinton to being the Democratic nominee

[31:04] tonight?

[31:04] >> He's on the verge, Jim. Next week is

[31:07] make or break now for Paul Simon. He has

[31:09] to win either Illinois or Michigan. It's

[31:12] a very uphill battle for him in

[31:13] Illinois. I think he might pull it out

[31:15] in Michigan. And that's that's a pretty

[31:16] wide openen race right now.

[31:17] >> Is there a strategy that Sonus could

[31:19] follow, Mark, that could help him or

[31:22] could he change? Could he do something

[31:23] dramatic between now and next week to do

[31:26] something about this?

[31:27] >> Well, what Sonus has to do, Jim, is go

[31:29] back to what worked for him. I mean,

[31:30] what worked for him is when Paul Songers

[31:32] could talk about the economy, once Bill

[31:34] Clinton started nailing him on Senate

[31:36] votes, uh, real and imagined, uh,

[31:39] missteps, uh, whether he was ardent in

[31:41] his support of social security, whether

[31:43] in fact he had joined six out of the

[31:45] seven Jewish senators in the United

[31:46] States Senate, once voted pro-Syrian on

[31:49] a foreign policy issue, Sonus found

[31:51] himself in playing defense. You don't

[31:52] score points on defense in American

[31:54] presidential politics. And, uh, Paul

[31:56] Sonis has to go back to to what worked

[31:59] for him before. and and do it even

[32:00] better uh and and make it make his own

[32:04] case rather than simply responding to to

[32:07] Bill Clinton's criticisms.

[32:08] >> Wendy Sherman, as a practical matter

[32:10] though, is it too late for him? Has

[32:11] Clinton got it?

[32:12] >> Oh, I don't think it's too late. I think

[32:14] uh one of the things that we're seeing

[32:15] here is really coming to uh a very

[32:18] important turning point in this

[32:19] campaign. I think the Democrats have

[32:21] been very lucky. Uh we've had candidates

[32:24] who have been substantive talking about

[32:25] the issues. We had them sit here with

[32:28] you and your partner in a very

[32:29] substantive debate. One I'd like to see

[32:31] George Bush in. I'd like to see him as

[32:33] substantive as all those Democratic

[32:34] candidates were. So, I think we've got

[32:36] two and really three people going into

[32:39] this. I think Jerry Brown is very much a

[32:41] factor in play here. I think that uh we

[32:43] will have a very heated and lively

[32:46] Michigan Illinois uh primary come on

[32:48] Tuesday.

[32:49] >> How's it look to you, Ed Rollins? I I I

[32:51] think that that Clinton has has come

[32:53] back from the dead uh through the

[32:54] strength of his campaigning techniques

[32:56] and and he has a superb campaign

[32:58] strategy. I think he's on his way. He

[33:00] has very strong organization. We're

[33:02] beyond retail politics, which is what

[33:03] New Hampshire is where where Sonis

[33:05] obviously had great appeal and and he

[33:07] just doesn't have the strength in the

[33:08] organization to move forward. Too many

[33:10] people now have a vested interest in

[33:11] Clinton winning. They have decided that

[33:13] he's going to be their strongest

[33:14] candidate uh even with all the the

[33:16] potential improprieties that might be

[33:18] out there and and uh and people are

[33:19] betting on him. Eddie Williams, uh,

[33:22] Clinton has come back from the dead, to

[33:23] use Ed Rollins, uh, uh, uh, phrase, uh,

[33:27] with a lot of black votes, particularly,

[33:29] uh, yesterday. How do you analyze that?

[33:31] Why are the blacks for Bill Clinton?

[33:34] >> Well, I think the strongest thing that,

[33:36] uh, Paul Sun has going for him right

[33:38] now, is that he's never lost an election

[33:40] before.

[33:41] um given the uh the combination, the

[33:44] coalition that Bill Clinton put

[33:46] together, especially in the south where

[33:47] he brought blacks and whites under the

[33:50] same umbrella. Even as I said the other

[33:52] night, bringing uh Bubba and the brother

[33:54] together, that is formidable. And since

[33:56] many blacks consider Illinois and

[33:58] Michigan really to be up south, uh I

[34:00] have every reason to believe that

[34:01] Clinton is going to put together the

[34:02] same coalition in Illinois and Michigan.

[34:04] >> Why do they consider it up south? Well,

[34:06] because of the history of migration,

[34:08] blacks out of the south going into

[34:10] Detroit for jobs back in the 30s and 40s

[34:12] and going into Illinois. And so, you

[34:14] have a lot of strong southern ties in

[34:15] those two particular states. And if he

[34:17] can bring together those coalitions

[34:19] working in Midwestern states, I think

[34:21] that is a very unique and formidable uh

[34:25] coalition that he's got going. David,

[34:27] going back to the beginning and taking

[34:28] it up to where we are tonight, is

[34:30] Clinton's doing well more attribut more

[34:34] attributable to the fact of his having

[34:36] run a terrific campaign, his being a

[34:38] terrific candidate or there to being a

[34:41] weak field or some other factors?

[34:43] >> Well, the field is weak and I think

[34:45] geography has helped him enormously. If

[34:47] Super Tuesday had been a a Midwestern

[34:49] regional primary, we'd have a very

[34:51] different outcome. Right now, Bob Kerry,

[34:52] for example, might still be in this

[34:54] race, but Paul Sonos will be a much,

[34:55] much stronger candidate. But you have to

[34:57] say that Bill Clinton has also run a

[34:59] superb campaign. Not many candidates,

[35:02] particularly people not well known to

[35:03] the American people, could come back

[35:04] from what he did uh to survive the

[35:06] Lazarus, the person, the attacks, the

[35:09] Lazarus analogy, I think, is is an apt

[35:11] one. But one thing I think we've also

[35:13] seen and learned in the past week about

[35:14] Bill Clinton, once he gets off defense,

[35:16] because he's been playing a lot of

[35:17] defense in this campaign, once he goes

[35:18] on offense, he's a very formidable

[35:20] campaigner. He carved Paul Sonos up in

[35:23] in Florida and you know I I I'm he

[35:25] reminds me more and more Lyndon Johnson.

[35:27] He's he has the capacity to put together

[35:29] the the Bubba and the brother and he

[35:31] also has got this enormous drive and and

[35:34] he he and this passion about him. Uh you

[35:37] know I I I think there's a lot of LBJ in

[35:39] him and and and it's he he he also

[35:42] leaves this lingering disqu among a lot

[35:45] of voters. He hasn't overcome that. That

[35:47] to me is a primary obstacle that now is

[35:49] in his path. That is a bigger obstacle

[35:51] between here and the White House right

[35:52] now than I think Paul Sonus is.

[35:54] >> Mark, how would you analyze Clinton as a

[35:56] candidate thus far?

[35:57] >> Uh, Bill Clinton as a candidate, just

[35:59] looking at him uh as is a straight horse

[36:02] is as good as any I've ever seen. He's a

[36:04] good retail politician that is in small

[36:06] groups. He he remembers what you've

[36:08] written. He'll comment on it to the

[36:10] press. He's an absolute charming

[36:12] disarming guy. Uh you're obviously

[36:15] impressed if he's read what you've

[36:16] written. Uh he must be smart, right?

[36:19] if he remembers that, right? And if he's

[36:20] impressed by it, he agrees with you. Uh

[36:22] he is uh and at the same time, he he's

[36:25] wonderful with people. I saw him on the

[36:28] campaign trail where a woman broke down

[36:30] telling a a story of of personal tragedy

[36:32] and what her family have been through.

[36:34] And he went over and comforted her in a

[36:35] very natural way. Uh something that most

[36:37] politicians don't do and can't do

[36:39] easily. At the same time, he gives a

[36:41] good speech. Uh he's good on television.

[36:44] Uh so he's he's got all those skills.

[36:46] David touched on it. Why aren't

[36:48] Democrats dancing in the streets if

[36:51] they've got this terrific talent? And it

[36:53] is. It's the idea that my God almighty,

[36:56] from this day forward, every day in

[36:58] election, if you're on the ticket and

[37:00] you're this guy is your running mate,

[37:01] you're going to pick up the morning

[37:02] paper and there's going to be a little

[37:03] trepidation in your hand and you're

[37:05] going to see is it going to be a photo

[37:06] op of Bill Clinton or is it going to be

[37:07] a story? It's going to be a story of

[37:09] it's going to be another story or a

[37:10] story when they talk about uh Playboy

[37:14] magazine now in Washington among

[37:16] politics. It just has a reference to an

[37:19] alleged story that's going to appear in

[37:21] June involving a woman who was Miss

[37:23] Arkansas. I mean, Bill Sapphire

[37:25] mentioned it in the in the Los in the

[37:27] New York Times. Clarence Page in the

[37:29] Chicago Tribune mentioned it. I mean, so

[37:30] this is this is what it is. There's a

[37:32] disqu. There's a there's an unease that

[37:34] this guy at the top of the ticket could

[37:36] could blow it away at any time.

[37:38] >> How do you analyze the disqu, Wendy?

[37:40] Well, I think that uh Bill Clinton has

[37:43] faced an awful lot in the press, much

[37:45] more than any other candidate in this

[37:47] race. It's been very tough. He has been

[37:49] through a trial by fire. And I think

[37:51] ultimately it comes down to the voters

[37:53] and whether the voters are disqued

[37:54] enough to vote him in or vote him out.

[37:56] And so far, they've been saying, "We

[37:58] hear everything you say and we still

[38:01] think he's the one to beat George Bush."

[38:02] And I think that matters. And in the

[38:04] exit polling data, it shows that yes,

[38:06] there are concerns about Bill Clinton

[38:08] and yes, there are concerns about uh

[38:11] Paul Songis's health, but in fact uh

[38:14] that's both of those are about 20%, but

[38:16] 40% of Republican voters still don't

[38:19] know what George Bush stands for. And I

[38:22] think that those kind of numbers are

[38:24] what's going to make this general

[38:25] election, whether it's Bill Clinton or

[38:26] Paul Sonis, and I agree it's uh Paul

[38:29] Sonis is to stop Bill Clinton at the

[38:31] moment. But I think that 40% is a very

[38:33] disquiting number for George Bush. My uh

[38:35] daughter would say and her young

[38:37] friends, George Bush stands up for the

[38:39] American family, not

[38:43] Ed Rollins. Uh Wendy Sherman mentioned a

[38:46] moment ago that we must not forget uh

[38:48] Jerry Brown is still in this race and

[38:50] he's a factor. Do how would you judge

[38:52] that? What kind of factor is he?

[38:54] >> He's a dangerous factor in this sense.

[38:56] Uh he doesn't play by conventional

[38:58] politics anymore. or he did a year ago

[38:59] when he was the Democrat chairman of

[39:01] California, but he's no longer into

[39:02] conventional politics and I think he's

[39:04] sort of in a gorilla type operation, the

[39:06] slash and burn. He's enjoying the

[39:07] limelight. He has nothing else to do uh

[39:09] when this this is over. So, I think that

[39:11] he has no qualms about going out and and

[39:14] and trashing out both Sonis and and

[39:16] Clinton. And obviously, if he thinks

[39:17] Clinton is is going to win this thing,

[39:19] uh it always comes back to his

[39:21] battleground, which is California. Uh

[39:23] and he still has strength in California.

[39:25] So, I expect him to be a nuisance factor

[39:26] and I expect him to be very

[39:28] unpredictable and I wouldn't even be

[39:29] surprised in the final analysis if he

[39:31] chooses to take his movement outside the

[39:33] Democratic party and just keep right on

[39:35] running through November as an

[39:36] independent.

[39:36] >> How what what do you think about the

[39:38] Jerry Brown factor, Eddie Williams?

[39:39] >> Well, he can be dangerous. You know, he

[39:41] has been he's he's gone out of his way

[39:43] to to try to quit some black support. It

[39:45] did not succeed in the southern states.

[39:47] >> Why not? Why why don't they why why

[39:48] don't they hear?

[39:49] >> I think he wasn't taken seriously. I

[39:50] think there is a strong inclination now

[39:53] to want to identify with a winner. I

[39:55] think that compared to Clinton, he did

[39:57] not appeal as as strongly, but it was a

[40:00] blatant uh appeal to race and support of

[40:03] civil rights. I think also there is a

[40:05] widespread perception among blacks that

[40:07] all three of the candidates have fairly

[40:08] strong civil rights or social policy

[40:11] record. So that really is not an issue

[40:12] and people can deal more with the

[40:14] substances. They can go on to other

[40:16] things.

[40:17] >> Sure. Speaking of going on to other

[40:18] things, let's go let's go on to uh Wendy

[40:21] Sherman's subject here as she was

[40:22] mentioning as George Bush. Uh on but but

[40:26] on on the Buchanan thing first of all is

[40:29] what what's your we talked about this

[40:30] last night, David, but uh is there any

[40:32] update in your mind or based on your on

[40:35] what you have in your mind or what

[40:36] somebody put in it since last night as

[40:38] to whether or not Buchanan is going to

[40:40] go gracefully anytime? He said he was

[40:42] going to go if he goes when he goes he

[40:44] will go gracefully. That's what he did

[40:45] say today. Is he going to do it anytime

[40:47] soon?

[40:48] >> Not soon enough for George Bush. But he

[40:50] I think it's very clear now that

[40:52] Buchanan has peaked and that he is he's

[40:54] on a slide. I think Washington now

[40:56] really is when he does want to get out.

[40:58] U what he did say today which was

[41:00] significant was that if once that the

[41:02] president has the nomination locked up

[41:04] Buchanan will not attack him personally.

[41:06] He wants to go on and raise a few issues

[41:07] in California but he's not going to go

[41:09] after him in the kind same kind of

[41:10] person the way he has in the past. He

[41:11] does not want to be a ruler ruined

[41:13] candidate. Clearly Pat Buchanan is

[41:14] beginning to think in a more serious way

[41:16] about 1996 and he understands if he

[41:18] destroys George Bush in 1992, his

[41:21] chances his Pat Buchanan's chances for

[41:22] the nomination of his own party in 96 I

[41:25] think are sharply diminished.

[41:26] >> What uh what point does he have left to

[41:28] make? Mark,

[41:29] >> I'm not sure. Jim, I think that in in

[41:31] New Hampshire, Pat Buchanan showed

[41:33] something that he had never revealed

[41:34] before in his in his public persona. Uh

[41:37] and that was he was he was the

[41:38] empathetic, sympathetic conservative to

[41:41] people in economic trouble. Uh, and then

[41:43] when he headed south, when he got below

[41:45] the Mason Dixon line, he started doing

[41:47] the outlawed French kissing for married

[41:49] couples and all the sort of social

[41:51] cultural conservatism running. I mean,

[41:53] his he did many Bitbergs visiting the

[41:55] Confederate grave sites and, you know, I

[41:57] mean, it was it was sort of bizarre down

[41:59] there. I mean, he was it ran hard right

[42:01] down on on on all the social and

[42:03] cultural issues down south. And I uh to

[42:07] me, I

[42:07] >> think you just upset David.

[42:09] >> I mean, he was he was the tomb of he was

[42:12] over is over visiting his visiting his

[42:14] greatgrandfather. This is a guy the

[42:16] question. Well, you can be sorry. I

[42:18] mean, maybe you would have voted for Pat

[42:19] Buchanan down there. My my point is that

[42:21] Pat Buchanan got off his economic

[42:23] message. He's going to Michigan now.

[42:24] It's a state that is in economic trouble

[42:26] that has a conservative governor, a

[42:28] governor who has made his reputation as

[42:30] popular on the fact of not raising taxes

[42:33] and very popular Republicans. And that's

[42:35] and so I think if he returns to that

[42:37] economic message, he he may have he may

[42:39] find some response there. Ed Rollins,

[42:42] you said here last week that uh the best

[42:44] way Mr. Bush could well the best thing

[42:46] Mr. Bush could do to combat what

[42:48] Buchanan is doing is to be the president

[42:50] and forget and ignore Buchanan. That

[42:53] apparently is the strategy, right? He

[42:55] was either listening or they had the

[42:56] same idea at the same time.

[42:57] >> I'm sure they had the same idea. They

[42:58] have a lot of bright people around the

[42:59] around the president. He himself has

[43:00] fairly good instincts. Uh the critical

[43:02] thing David made a point about Pat

[43:04] peaking. I I think it's not just a

[43:06] question of Pat peaking. I think it's a

[43:08] question of the president's probably

[43:09] bottomed out. This is this is voters who

[43:12] are unhappy with George Bush. It's in

[43:14] direct proportion to the disapproval

[43:15] among Republicans and for those who

[43:17] disapprove of the tax pledge that he

[43:19] broke two years ago. Almost direct

[43:21] numbers. Buchanan adds a little,

[43:23] subtracts a little depending on the on

[43:24] the course of his campaign. I think

[43:26] there's 25 to 30% across the country.

[43:28] Until the economy starts coming back, it

[43:30] probably stays there until there's a

[43:32] Democrat on the other side. But I think

[43:34] for the president to in any way, shape

[43:35] or form get into the trenches with the

[43:37] pres with with Buchanan anymore, just

[43:39] does himself a great disservice, does

[43:40] the party a great disservice. I think

[43:42] Pat is now finding uh that the game is

[43:45] changing dramatically. Just the press

[43:47] coverage yesterday, he he got 30% a week

[43:50] ago and it was a great victory.

[43:51] Yesterday was a great defeat. He's now

[43:53] to a point he's had 13 weeks of the most

[43:55] fun he's ever had in his life. It now

[43:57] gets it now gets real tough and people

[43:59] start uh start really questioning his

[44:01] motives. Is he going to destroy the

[44:02] party? He's now in a battle with the

[44:04] national chairman of the party and

[44:05] making outrageous demands. And I think

[44:07] that Pat wants to be always taken

[44:09] seriously. If he continues, he may not

[44:11] be taken seriously again. David, did you

[44:13] find it interesting that Mr. Bush was

[44:15] given an opportunity two or three times

[44:17] today at his news conference to

[44:19] disassociate himself from the remarks of

[44:22] uh his party chairman and others, the

[44:24] accusations that they have made about

[44:27] Buchanan, about race, anti-semitism, and

[44:29] all of that. And Mr. Bush said, "Well,

[44:31] I'm these people are defending me and

[44:33] that's terrific and etc." And they asked

[44:35] him again. He said, "Well, that's

[44:36] terrific." And he didn't say, he didn't

[44:38] disassociate himself.

[44:39] >> Jim, he's been listening to the show.

[44:40] He's heading back to the Rose Garden,

[44:41] he's going back to being president. And

[44:43] I I think that's a smart strategy. I I I

[44:45] think once he get out of the Rose Garden

[44:46] the last few weeks, he he really got

[44:48] hurt and he'll be he'll be better off as

[44:50] a campaigner and frankly, I think the

[44:51] country will be better off if he goes

[44:52] back to paying attention to the business

[44:53] at hand. But I think there's one other

[44:55] thing that goes going on here that that

[44:57] should be noted and that is that turnout

[44:59] on the Democratic side is was down in

[45:01] most of the southern states I believe

[45:02] yesterday whereas turnout

[45:04] >> compared to what compared

[45:04] >> compared to four years ago.

[45:05] >> Is that right Eddie? You've looked at

[45:07] that.

[45:07] >> Turnout is down was down among both

[45:09] Democrats and Republicans significantly

[45:11] more among Democrats than Republicans.

[45:13] >> In many many states Republican turnout

[45:15] actually was went down some went up in

[45:17] others but the Republican share of the

[45:18] primary vote in the South is up in every

[45:21] almost every state. It's up

[45:22] significantly in some states. For

[45:24] instance, in four years ago, there were

[45:25] among all the primary voters, 40% voted

[45:27] in the Republican primary. This time

[45:29] around, 50% voted in the Republican

[45:31] primary. That suggests that even as Bill

[45:33] Clinton was sweeping the South on the

[45:34] Democratic side, that George Bush

[45:36] retains a great deal of strength there.

[45:38] And he and and and indeed, I think

[45:39] that's why he would still be favored in

[45:41] a general election against Bill Clinton.

[45:43] The other thing that happened yesterday,

[45:45] Wendy Sherman, was that uh David Duke,

[45:48] the big fear that everybody talked about

[45:50] at the beginning of all this, apparently

[45:52] has flopped out. How do you What's your

[45:54] analysis?

[45:55] >> Well, I think Pep Buchanan has taken his

[45:57] agenda and run with it. And I think it's

[45:59] also uh been quite interesting, as you

[46:01] say, the president hasn't disassociated

[46:03] himself with Pep Buchanan and were or

[46:05] with the ideas he's espoused. And I

[46:07] think he's trying to collect Buchanan

[46:09] voters.

[46:09] >> Sorry, I misspoke. What I meant to say

[46:11] was he did not disassociate himself with

[46:14] the attacks on Buchanan rather than not

[46:16] not with the maybe that's what I what I

[46:19] meant at least. I'm sorry.

[46:20] >> Right. Well, I think when you don't

[46:21] disassociate yourself with someone who

[46:23] is uh espousing things even if you are

[46:27] not identifying with those ideas

[46:28] directly, you're trying to collect the

[46:30] voters of that candidate. George Bush

[46:32] does not want to lose Pat Buchanan's

[46:34] voters. And I think the only agenda that

[46:36] George Bush has had in the last few days

[46:39] has been Pat Buchanan's agenda. Whether

[46:41] it's firing uh the head of NEA, whether

[46:44] it's saying my uh uh denying my tax

[46:48] pledge was a mistake, everything has

[46:49] been really the faright agenda. And I do

[46:53] believe George Bush has gone back to the

[46:55] rose garden. But I think the American

[46:56] people would say he's the only one who's

[46:58] smelling roses out of that kind of

[47:00] strategy. And I think he still has very

[47:02] significant problems. Uh, and I might

[47:04] add, there may be Republicans who are

[47:07] turning out, but women are staying home

[47:09] uh, in the Republican primaries. And I

[47:12] think that's a serious problem for

[47:13] George Bush because I think they will

[47:14] flock to the Democratic party.

[47:16] >> You agree, Ed Rollins? Well, first of

[47:17] all, let me just say I I think we have a

[47:19] great deal as Americans to be grateful

[47:21] to Pat Buchanan. I would hate to have

[47:23] David Duke out there attempting to be

[47:24] the be the vehicle for this protest vote

[47:27] against George Bush. And I think Pat

[47:28] Buchanan is painful