The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour (PBS) - 1992-03-16 - 1 of 2
Channel: malgent
Transcript
Language: English (original, YouTube automatic captions)
[0:06] Good evening. I'm Judy Woodruff in New
[0:08] York.
[0:08] >> And I'm Jim Lara in Washington. After
[0:11] our summary of the news this Monday, we
[0:13] preview the whites reform referendum in
[0:15] South Africa. Nobel laurate James
[0:17] Buchanan looks at the US economy and
[0:20] essayist Roger Rosenblad observes trial
[0:22] by television.
[0:24] >> Funding for the McNeel Lair NewsHour has
[0:26] been provided by Pepsico.
[0:40] PES.
[0:43] Part of helping the world live and
[0:45] communicate better is keeping it well
[0:46] informed. That's why funding for the
[0:49] NewsHour is also provided by AT&T
[0:52] and by the Corporation for Public
[0:54] Broadcasting and viewers like you.
[0:57] >> Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown were at
[1:00] each other again today. Clinton said
[1:02] Brown was not cut to be president and
[1:04] ought to pack up his tent and go home.
[1:06] Brown said Clinton had a scandal a week
[1:08] and he would continue to point them out
[1:10] until the convention. Their mutual
[1:12] hostility surfaced in a preman and
[1:14] Illinois primary debate last night in
[1:16] Chicago. Brown accused Clinton of
[1:19] funneling state of Arkansas money to his
[1:21] wife's Little Rock law firm, a charge
[1:24] Clinton heatedly denied. Paul Sunis, the
[1:27] third man in the Democratic race, has
[1:28] stayed out of the mudslinging. In
[1:30] Chicago this morning, he said he
[1:32] believed a candidate who remains above
[1:34] the fray becomes the alternative.
[1:37] Republican candidate Pat Buchanan did
[1:39] some lastminute campaigning in Michigan.
[1:41] Polls showed him lagging far behind
[1:43] President Bush there and in Illinois.
[1:46] Judy, the federal government has begun a
[1:48] criminal investigation of the bank that
[1:51] formerly served the House of
[1:52] Representatives. A spokesman for the US
[1:54] Attorney's Office in Washington said the
[1:57] probe began last fall. He refused to say
[2:00] who or what was targeted. The House
[2:02] Ethics Committee this month revealed
[2:04] that more than 300 past and present
[2:07] House members had written checks on
[2:09] accounts at the bank without sufficient
[2:11] funds to cover them. The Chrysler
[2:14] Corporation today turned to General
[2:16] Motors for a replacement for chairman
[2:18] Liakoka. He is Robert Eaton and he has
[2:22] headed GM's operations in Europe for the
[2:24] past four years. Eaton will hold the
[2:27] title of vice chairman of of Chrysler
[2:29] until the 67year-old Ayakoka stepped
[2:32] down at the end of this year. Aayakoka
[2:34] joined Chrysler in 1978. He will
[2:37] continue to serve on its board of
[2:39] directors after his retirement.
[2:41] >> South African president de clerk today
[2:44] called for a yes vote in the referendum
[2:46] on ending apartheid. He said to do
[2:48] otherwise could plunge South Africa into
[2:51] chaos. Jeremy Thompson of Independent
[2:53] Television News reports on tomorrow's
[2:55] whites only vote.
[2:58] >> In Johannesburg, South Africans woke up
[3:00] to a new campaign commercial. It could
[3:03] be tomorrow's headlines.
[3:05] >> South Africa banned from the World Cup
[3:07] cricket. Negotiations broken off.
[3:10] Underground struggle resumed. Tens of
[3:13] thousands predicted to lose jobs as
[3:14] international sanctions imposed. If you
[3:17] vote no or don't vote at all, this is
[3:20] what you can expect.
[3:22] >> But despite a multi-million pound
[3:24] advertising campaign by the government
[3:26] and big business, South Africa's 5
[3:28] million whites are still deeply divided
[3:30] over which way to vote. Right-wing
[3:32] Africanos still seem unperturbed by the
[3:35] international consequences of a no vote.
[3:37] They're motivated by parochial concerns
[3:40] such as rising crime, recession, and the
[3:42] threat of a black government. Law and
[3:44] order remains a major factor in this
[3:46] referendum. Security was stepped up
[3:49] today after another weekend of violence
[3:51] in the township which claimed 40 more
[3:53] lives. While most blacks will benefit
[3:56] from a vote for reform, there are rebel
[3:58] elements within in Carter and the ANC
[4:00] who are opposed to compromise. It's
[4:03] believed they're using violence to
[4:05] provoke worried whites into voting no.
[4:08] >> We'll have more on this story right
[4:09] after the news summary. Israeli Defense
[4:12] Minister Marshia Arens denied again
[4:14] today Israel sold missiles or missile
[4:16] technology to China. He did so in
[4:19] Washington after a meeting with Defense
[4:21] Secretary Dick Cheney at the Pentagon.
[4:23] Aaron said this to reporters after that
[4:25] meeting.
[4:27] I told Secretary Cheney that there was
[4:29] no ground at all for the allegations
[4:31] that Israel had sold Patriot missiles or
[4:33] Patriot missile technology to China. And
[4:37] uh I think we'll be looking at ways of
[4:38] uh making sure that the United States
[4:40] can verify that that's the case because
[4:42] that is the case.
[4:43] >> Arens and other Israeli leaders have
[4:45] said they believe the allegations were
[4:47] leaked to hurt Israel's image in the
[4:49] United States. White House spokesman
[4:51] Marlon Fitzwater today denied the
[4:53] administration had anything to do with
[4:55] any such thing. He said the US
[4:57] government had worked long and hard to
[4:59] develop good relations with Israel.
[5:01] >> Russia took it a step toward formation
[5:03] of its own army today. President Boris
[5:06] Yelson created a Russian defense
[5:08] ministry which he will head for now. His
[5:11] military aid said Russia could have a 1
[5:13] and a.5 million man force within 2
[5:16] years. Also today, the president of
[5:19] Kazakhstan said he had established a
[5:21] special military force to defend his
[5:23] republic. The moves were a blow to
[5:26] efforts by the Commonwealth of
[5:27] Independent States to keep the former
[5:30] Soviet army under central control.
[5:32] Officials in Turkey said today more than
[5:35] 375 bodies had been found in the rubble
[5:38] of last week's earthquake. They said
[5:40] there was little hope of finding more
[5:42] survivors. The final death toll was
[5:44] expected to be about 800. Another
[5:47] 180,000 people were left homeless by the
[5:50] quake, which struck eastern Turkey
[5:51] Friday. A group of investigators claimed
[5:55] to have solved the Amelia Heheart
[5:57] mystery. The pilot and her navigator
[5:59] disappeared more than 50 years ago while
[6:02] attempting to fly around the world. They
[6:04] were last seen leaving New Guinea on
[6:07] route to Howland Island in the South
[6:08] Pacific. At a news conference today in
[6:11] Washington, the investigators produced a
[6:13] piece of metal they said was part of the
[6:16] plane's fuselage. They also displayed a
[6:18] shoe heel and soul which they think
[6:21] belonged to Miss Heheart. At the news
[6:23] conference, the lead investigator,
[6:25] Richard Gillespie, explained what he
[6:28] believes happened to the pilot and her
[6:30] navigator.
[6:31] >> July 2nd, 1937, Amelia Heheart and her
[6:34] navigator, Fred Nunan, after failing to
[6:37] find Howland Island,
[6:39] flew down a 157 degree line of position
[6:43] and arrived over Niko Moruro, then known
[6:46] as Gardener Island, at about 11:00 a.m.
[6:49] local time. The tide was low and a safe
[6:52] wheels down landing was made on the dry
[6:55] reef flat at the island's western end.
[6:59] For 3 days, radio distress calls were
[7:01] sent. But sometime between July 5th and
[7:04] July 9th, high seas severely damaged the
[7:07] aircraft and swept it out and over the
[7:09] edge of the reef. Hehard and Nunan
[7:12] survived for an unknown period of time
[7:15] before dying on the waterless atal.
[7:19] >> That's it for our news summary. Just
[7:21] ahead on the NewsHour, the upcoming
[7:22] whites only referendum in South Africa,
[7:25] a Nobel Prize winning economist and
[7:28] Roger Rosenlat on the recent run of
[7:30] trials on television.
[7:42] Tomorrow's vote in South Africa is our
[7:44] lead story tonight. The vote is for
[7:46] whites only. They are to say yes or no
[7:49] to continuing the white government's
[7:51] negotiations with the black majority to
[7:53] write a new constitution. Our preview
[7:56] begins with this report by Julian O'Han
[7:58] Howeran of the BBC Newsight program.
[8:02] Hey, you. You. Yes, you. Don't look
[8:08] around. I'm talking to you. Did you vote
[8:11] yes today?
[8:13] >> A desperate appeal from the ruling
[8:15] National Party is targeted at apathetic
[8:17] whites as polling day arrives.
[8:20] >> What about the guy next to you? Well,
[8:24] what's his excuse?
[8:27] The style is hardly seductive, but
[8:29] subtlety has not been a prominent
[8:31] feature of this referendum.
[8:33] >> If friends or colleagues have forgotten
[8:35] that the referendum is on today, please
[8:37] remind them to vote yes. After all,
[8:40] >> it's one of scores of commercials with
[8:42] which South Africans have been bombarded
[8:44] by the powerful alliance demanding a yes
[8:47] to further reform.
[8:49] The ads have focused overwhelmingly on
[8:52] the terror, ruination, and decay which
[8:54] would result, it suggested, from a no
[8:57] majority. To get back into big time
[9:00] business, vote yes on
[9:02] >> decide on your future and better start
[9:04] Africa. Vote yes on March.
[9:07] >> Every no show is actually a no vote.
[9:12] Much of this advertising has been paid
[9:14] for by big business coordinated by a
[9:17] prominent publishing group, Times Media
[9:19] Limited. The newspaper and industry
[9:22] bosses masterminding the publicity have
[9:25] portrayed a no majority as leading to an
[9:27] upurge in activity from the extreme
[9:30] right-wing AWB.
[9:32] >> They will take it as a victory and they
[9:34] will be on the streets and the and the
[9:36] blacks will be against them. We will
[9:37] have stone flang blood in the streets.
[9:39] They admit a lot of the advertising has
[9:42] been negative in tone but say that's
[9:44] justified by circumstances.
[9:47] >> You can't go and paint a rosy picture.
[9:50] 40 years of apartheite,
[9:52] 40 years of evil have left this country
[9:55] as communism left Eastern Europe in a
[9:59] situation where reform is problematic,
[10:02] difficult, treacherous and dangerous.
[10:05] And that's the way it is. The other way,
[10:07] of course, the no way is is is certain
[10:10] doom. Certain doom. The Armageddon.
[10:15] >> 2 hours from Johannesburg, nursery
[10:17] school children in the town of Evander
[10:20] welcome President FW the clerk.
[10:23] Opposition to his policies is high here,
[10:25] but the turnout by parents is better
[10:28] than expected. The clerk who's
[10:30] campaigned 12 or 15 hours a day for 3
[10:32] weeks misses no chance of a photo
[10:35] opportunity.
[10:37] In his speeches, he suggests he can
[10:40] negotiate a place for whites in
[10:42] government even after the black majority
[10:44] get the vote. We're being accused of
[10:48] organizing or promoting a suicide plan
[10:52] for you are here together today. The
[10:55] opposite is true. We working for a
[10:57] survival plan. We working for a success
[11:00] plan. President D Clerk has run this
[11:02] referendum rather like an American
[11:04] presidential campaign. Other national
[11:07] party politicians have hardly been in
[11:09] the picture. While the clerk has been
[11:11] speaking six, seven, sometimes eight
[11:14] times a day. But for all his energy and
[11:17] argument, there's no convincing evidence
[11:19] that he's managed to win back the
[11:21] sivable slice of support he's lost for
[11:24] his reform process during the past two
[11:26] years.
[11:33] >> Half an hour later, the clerk is at a
[11:35] barbecue 10 miles away, giving the
[11:37] impression every voter and every
[11:39] handshake counts.
[11:42] Your foreign minister said the other day
[11:44] that he thought it would be important to
[11:45] get at least 60% on Tuesday. Do you
[11:47] agree with it?
[11:49] >> I a win is a win. I'm not differing from
[11:52] him at 60% will be a marvelous win. But
[11:56] a 1% win is a win and uh it will give me
[11:59] a mandate to go ahead. But the bigger
[12:01] the percentage is uh the bigger the
[12:04] impetus will be that uh that win will
[12:08] give to the whole process.
[12:11] Later the same day, police and farmers
[12:14] gather at Naelstrom northern Transval
[12:17] where the clerk continues on the
[12:18] campaign trail. When excitable farmers
[12:21] try to crowd an entrance to the hall
[12:23] where the clerk is speaking, police give
[12:25] them short trips.
[12:29] >> This is a right-wing stronghold where
[12:31] conservatives disgusted by the prospect
[12:34] of black majority rule sense it's their
[12:37] last chance to alter the course of
[12:38] events.
[12:41] Away from the political meetings,
[12:43] members of a Johannesburg sports club
[12:45] study possibly the most powerful
[12:47] argument in the Yes campaign.
[12:49] >> Come on.
[12:52] >> Holding the referendum while the South
[12:53] African team does battle in the World
[12:56] Cup cricket has been a master stroke of
[12:58] timing. All but one or two of those we
[13:01] met here said they would vote yes and
[13:03] that ending sporting isolation
[13:05] influences their decision. I think it's
[13:08] glad to see us all back and I think
[13:10] that's all what we wanted. We don't want
[13:12] to be isolated. We want to be and show
[13:14] the world what we can do. Will you be
[13:16] voting yes in the referendum? Yes.
[13:24] >> In a country which admits to being
[13:26] obsessed with sport, this could make all
[13:29] the difference.
[13:31] >> Okay, comrades. What we're going to do
[13:33] here today is sticking up these posters.
[13:36] All right. In Johannesburg, members of
[13:38] an ANC branch put in their effort for
[13:41] the Yes campaign. Why? Well said a black
[13:44] member. Because I love the clerk as well
[13:46] as the ANC. But even with the ANC and
[13:50] the white opposition Democratic Party
[13:52] behind it, the Yes campaign is far from
[13:55] confident of victory. Does that mean the
[13:58] big media blitz has failed?
[14:00] >> One has to look what uh at the result at
[14:03] the end of the day. Uh but on the other
[14:06] hand it is true that this is a very
[14:10] momentous decision to take and if you
[14:13] would just think of the distance which
[14:17] which we have required the South African
[14:20] electorate to travel in a short space of
[14:23] time then the fact that we can call such
[14:26] a referendum on such a question
[14:30] uh at this time and hope for a
[14:32] reasonable win is something fantastic.
[14:35] Anyway,
[14:37] >> the National Party in its haste has
[14:40] clearly left an important section of its
[14:42] white support behind. It has staked
[14:45] everything on a new South Africa where
[14:47] it hopes to thrive and recruit a large
[14:49] black membership. Whether the gamble has
[14:51] paid off, we'll know in 36 hours. We get
[14:54] three South African views now. Aar
[14:57] Kachalia is a human rights lawyer from
[15:00] Johannesburg. He was a leader of the
[15:02] United Democratic Front, an
[15:04] anti-apartate organization, now merged
[15:06] into the African National Congress. He
[15:08] is currently a visiting fellow at Yale
[15:10] Law School. Anton Harour is an editor of
[15:14] the Weekly Mail in Johannesburg. He is
[15:16] visiting the United States and he joins
[15:18] us from public television station WGBH
[15:21] in Boston. And Petus Leeb is a political
[15:24] scientist and lecturer in national
[15:27] strategy at Rand Africans University. He
[15:30] has been an analyst and researcher at
[15:32] the South African Department of Defense
[15:35] and the Bureau of Racial Affairs. He is
[15:37] now on a fellowship at the Foreign
[15:39] Policy Research Institute in
[15:41] Philadelphia and he joins us from public
[15:43] station WH YY. Mr. Harbor, let me begin
[15:46] with you. Why did President D Clerk call
[15:49] this referendum now? He had previously
[15:52] promised that before he moved to final
[15:54] constitutional change, he would go back
[15:57] to his elect, the white electorate, to
[15:59] seek a further mandate for them to take
[16:01] that final step. One can debate whether
[16:04] or not he was obliged to keep to that
[16:06] commitment. Uh but as long as one
[16:09] accepts that uh that that commitment had
[16:12] been stated, clearly his perception was
[16:14] the sooner he did that, the better his
[16:16] chances of defeating the far rightwing.
[16:18] >> Mr. Kachalis, would you agree with that?
[16:20] That's the president's reasoning.
[16:22] >> I think to some extent uh president
[16:25] declare was left with very little
[16:26] option. Uh the Portrom bi-election which
[16:30] he lost.
[16:31] >> This is a parliamentary election in one
[16:33] part of South Africa.
[16:34] >> That's correct. That was the third
[16:36] bi-election that the national party
[16:39] president declar national party had lost
[16:41] to the conservative party in in about a
[16:43] year. That together with the fact that
[16:46] President declar
[16:49] anticipated an overwhelming victory in
[16:51] Potter's room uh really pulled the rug
[16:54] from under his feet and he then was
[16:56] really faced with an untenable
[16:58] situation.
[16:59] >> Would you agree with that Mr. Leven that
[17:00] that's why the president did this?
[17:02] >> Basically yes. Uh that is true and the
[17:06] fact that president the clerk himself
[17:09] elevated the potistrom bi-election
[17:12] uh to the level of a test countrywide of
[17:16] his support among white voters because
[17:19] he regarded Potestrom is in the first
[17:21] place regarded as his hometown. He
[17:23] graduated from the potterest university
[17:26] and besides that town is regarded as a
[17:29] fairly stable and even uh
[17:34] a fairly stable white community in rural
[17:38] South Africa. Besides that, factors like
[17:43] the rising crime rate, like a three and
[17:47] a half year old very bad recession,
[17:50] the worst drought in recent memory in
[17:54] South and southern Africa.
[17:55] >> Mhm.
[17:56] >> Factors like ghost among white
[17:58] electorate of a possible future black
[18:02] socialist government. All these has have
[18:05] got no quick solution. And I think
[18:08] President Al Clark decided to opt for a
[18:11] snap referendum because time he
[18:15] considered not to be on his side.
[18:17] >> Just quickly, Mr. Harbor, for those
[18:18] people who don't follow uh South African
[18:21] affairs so closely, why is it that only
[18:24] whites are voting in this election?
[18:27] >> It's a throwback. It's an uh it's it's a
[18:29] result of um our existing constitution
[18:32] which is subject to negotiation at the
[18:34] moment but remains in place which gives
[18:36] only whites the vote. Um the clerk got
[18:39] his mandate uh originally to begin the
[18:42] reform process from a white electorate
[18:45] and he feels the need to go back to that
[18:47] electorate to renew that mandate.
[18:50] >> What is really at stake here Mr. Harbor?
[18:52] Is it the stark all or nothing scenario
[18:55] that's being painted on on both sides
[18:58] really in this debate?
[18:59] >> I think that's a little too stark. Uh it
[19:03] is a real super Tuesday uh in that there
[19:06] is a great deal at stake. If the nose
[19:08] win, we will be in for a good many years
[19:12] of very difficult a very difficult time
[19:15] uh at which uh there will be a great
[19:18] deal of conflict and at great cost to
[19:20] the country at great human and economic
[19:23] and political cost. But I think that the
[19:26] process that has begun in the last
[19:27] couple of years is irreversible. The
[19:29] decision being made tomorrow by the
[19:31] white electorate is whether that process
[19:33] is speeded up and moves faster that we
[19:36] have an interim government uh within the
[19:38] next few months or whether we in for a
[19:40] long hard difficult struggle to prove to
[19:44] a a a a more right-wing government that
[19:47] that path is the essential path.
[19:49] >> Mr. Kalis, would you agree that it's
[19:50] just a matter of how fast the process
[19:52] moves? that this is something that's
[19:54] irreversible that that South Africa is
[19:56] on a path and it's just a question of
[19:58] how quickly it moves.
[20:00] >> Well, because
[20:01] >> what is irreversible is that there can
[20:04] be no turn back. There can be no going
[20:07] back to old style apart.
[20:09] But what is unclear is whether the
[20:12] process ultimately ends up in democracy
[20:15] or whether it just disintegrates uh as
[20:18] the process proceeds. Uh what is of
[20:21] course vitally important is uh what's
[20:24] going to happen in the weeks ahead. It
[20:26] seems from the way the campaign has been
[20:28] run that uh South Africa is in a
[20:32] desperate state at the moment
[20:34] >> and because of the economy the drought
[20:36] and and
[20:37] >> yes and if the results of the referendum
[20:40] go against the government decisively
[20:43] uh the the future looks bleak. Uh that's
[20:47] all the scenario scenario is a bleak
[20:50] one.
[20:51] >> Bleak in what way? What do you mean?
[20:53] Because the government the president the
[20:55] clerk has said that he won't be able to
[20:57] proceed and he'll call for a different
[20:58] election. I guess
[20:59] >> I think one one has to look at at uh the
[21:02] way the campaign in the referendum is
[21:04] being run on the conservative party's
[21:07] side. They are invoking the spectre of
[21:10] chaos of what they refer to as a black
[21:14] communist government with incre with
[21:16] nationalization all the sorts of things
[21:18] that white South Africans have been told
[21:21] for for the last 40 years to be very
[21:23] afraid of.
[21:25] >> President the clerk on the other hand is
[21:27] also campaigning quite negatively. He's
[21:29] saying that there's going to be
[21:30] increased isolation, there's going to be
[21:32] more sanctions.
[21:34] uh that in fact it's interesting enough
[21:36] that President Zclerk himself is saying
[21:38] that there'll be an armed struggle
[21:39] again. So whites are really you know
[21:42] some people have said that it depends
[21:44] who threatens the white electorate more.
[21:46] >> So it's it's it's almost a case of who
[21:48] can out frighten uh the other side. Mr.
[21:51] Levenber would you agree with that that
[21:52] it's that it's a uh that what what we're
[21:56] hearing from both sides is starker than
[21:59] what's really going to happen if either
[22:01] side wins loses. The negative factor is
[22:05] unfortunately I think true. Uh unlike
[22:09] previous elections
[22:11] recent polls in have indicated a fairly
[22:15] large number of percentage of
[22:17] uncommitted white voters.
[22:21] Now clearly both sides are playing or
[22:24] are beating the drums of fear. the
[22:27] Conservative Party, the one set of fears
[22:29] at the National Party, that of massive
[22:32] black resistance against whites, even
[22:35] violence, irrespective of whether you've
[22:37] voted yes or no, and uh maybe
[22:41] reinstating of sanctions and economic
[22:44] rune. Now clearly the impact of these
[22:49] two sets of real or perceived fears
[22:54] what the the the impact on these
[22:56] uncommoted uncommitted voters will have
[22:58] a tremendous impact on the outcome of
[23:02] the referendum
[23:03] >> on the result. It's who can
[23:04] >> but but I want to emphasize also the
[23:07] positive side. Many white South Africans
[23:12] will vote yes because they clearly and
[23:14] honestly believe that there is no
[23:17] alternative.
[23:19] And what is interesting and I think I
[23:22] know the people fairly well that is that
[23:25] everybody virtually in South Africa
[23:27] among the white community in any case uh
[23:30] is of the opinion that the stat status
[23:33] quo can't be maintained for much longer.
[23:36] So you sound like you're arguing that
[23:37] it's going to win that that that the yes
[23:39] vote for Mr. Declerk's reforms is going
[23:42] to is going to win.
[23:44] >> Well, it's still the the situation is
[23:48] extremely fluid and unpredictable. But
[23:51] let me say this, and we've seen it a
[23:53] while ago, that the the white uh uh
[23:57] electorate is being bombarded with
[24:00] propaganda, pre-referendum propaganda by
[24:03] a very powerful alliance consisting out
[24:06] of the ruling national party.
[24:08] >> Yes, we've seen that in
[24:09] >> the Liberal Democratic Party. And even
[24:12] the ANC, though it rejected the what it
[24:14] termed to be a racist referendum, is
[24:16] assessing to some extent. plus the fact
[24:20] that various very influential uh uh uh
[24:24] uh governments from overseas especially
[24:26] the United States, the United Kingdom
[24:28] and Germany.
[24:30] >> So what is what is your point though
[24:31] quickly?
[24:31] >> My my point is that I think the yes vote
[24:35] is going to win by a fairly narrow
[24:37] margin
[24:38] >> by just by a narrow margin. Mr. Harbor,
[24:40] would you agree that it's close and that
[24:43] the yes is likely to win?
[24:45] >> I think so. But I think one does have to
[24:47] realize that a closed vote leaves the
[24:50] clerk with a number of political
[24:51] problems.
[24:53] I think that uh if he doesn't get more
[24:56] than about 55% for a yes, then uh the
[25:00] result will in fact slow down the
[25:02] negotiation process. I think there will
[25:04] be a number of people from within his
[25:06] party, from within his cabinet who will
[25:08] say yes, we do have a mandate to
[25:10] negotiate, but um we do have to be more
[25:14] careful of our constituency. We have to
[25:15] move slower, more cautiously, and
[25:17] perhaps make more concessions. I think
[25:19] it's even possible that if it's too
[25:21] close, the clerk himself will face a
[25:23] leadership challenge from within the
[25:24] party from a more cautious, a more
[25:27] conservative faction.
[25:28] >> So, you're saying that he has to do
[25:30] ballpark, but you said over 55% in order
[25:32] to have the mandate that he needs.
[25:35] >> I think so. Yes. Uh to make it strong
[25:37] enough so that the Conservative party
[25:39] cannot argue that if he called a white
[25:42] election, he would lose it. And to do
[25:44] that he needs about 55%.
[25:46] >> Mr. Kachi, would you agree with that
[25:47] that he needs a margin of of 55% or so
[25:50] to say that he's won with con, you know,
[25:53] a convincing victory?
[25:54] >> I wouldn't stick with a 55%. Certainly
[25:57] he needs a substantial victory and that
[25:59] could be anything uh from 60%.
[26:03] But uh let me say that the the problem
[26:07] with the narrow margin is not just uh a
[26:11] a political problem in the sense of
[26:13] white electoral politics.
[26:15] uh what will happen I think with a
[26:18] narrow vote uh or a narrow victory on
[26:21] the part of declare is that it's going
[26:23] to give those far rightwing elements who
[26:26] are planning terrorist actions against
[26:30] uh declare the ANC a future democratic
[26:33] government it will give them a lot more
[26:35] confidence they will feel that they have
[26:38] a substantial support in the white
[26:40] community and of course in just in the
[26:42] last weekend there's been an dramatic
[26:44] escalation, a frightening escalation in
[26:47] violence in the country. So I think my
[26:49] main concern is that a a narrow victory
[26:53] on on the part of Declare is going to
[26:55] give further impetus to far right-wing
[26:57] groups to to pro proceed their campaign
[27:00] of terror.
[27:00] >> Mr. Levenberg, is that a legitimate
[27:02] concern?
[27:03] >> I think so. uh President the Clerk is in
[27:07] the position of having to keep one eye
[27:10] on his own right wing within his own
[27:13] party and on the other hand uh one of
[27:16] his major negotiating partners the ANC
[27:20] with a youth wing especially very
[27:22] impatient
[27:24] uh that there should be progress towards
[27:27] a new South Africa and then on the other
[27:30] hand what uh uh regarding the right wing
[27:35] I think a yes vote victory, even a
[27:39] narrow one,
[27:41] could on the other hand strengthen the
[27:45] hands of a sizable minority or a sizable
[27:49] proportion within the official uh
[27:52] opposition conservative party who wants
[27:55] to negotiate, who wants to place their
[27:58] ideals and ideas on the negotiating
[28:00] table
[28:01] >> could strengthen that moderate
[28:02] viewpoint.
[28:03] to to to strengthen that.
[28:05] >> Yes.
[28:05] >> Uh because up till now the official
[28:07] leadership has turned them down. But
[28:09] >> but you're saying that's going to happen
[28:10] even with a narrow wind because
[28:13] >> it could be we're talking of the far
[28:15] right on the one hand committed to a
[28:18] more radical uh way of going about and
[28:22] uh emphasizing their ideals. that I
[28:25] think a fairly substantial uh percentage
[28:28] of the people on the right are not
[28:32] wishing for a civil war or a violent
[28:36] kind of option.
[28:37] >> Yeah. I I guess I I just want to cut you
[28:39] off because it I seem to you I thought
[28:41] you initially said you agreed, but now I
[28:43] hear you saying that you think the right
[28:44] will moderate if there's a victory. And
[28:46] I I guess I'm not hearing the
[28:48] >> within certain
[28:49] >> whether you're agreeing with Mr. Coach
[28:51] or not.
[28:52] within certain limits, it could have
[28:54] that effect on a certain percentage of
[28:58] people within the official Conservative
[29:00] Party.
[29:01] >> All right. And finally, uh uh Mr.
[29:03] Harbor, uh you you do believe that there
[29:06] will be uh a win for the Yes. Uh but a
[29:10] narrow win. Is that right? If things go
[29:13] >> That is correct. Yes.
[29:15] >> All right. Well, thank you all. Mr.
[29:16] Harbor, Mr. Cachelia, Mr. Leeberg. Thank
[29:19] you all for being with us.
[29:22] Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, a
[29:25] Nobel conversation about economics and a
[29:28] Roger Rosenblat essay. But first, this
[29:31] is Pledge week on public television. We
[29:33] are taking a short break now so your
[29:35] public television station can ask for
[29:37] your support. That support helps keep
[29:39] programs like this on the air.
[29:46] Making sure that the McNeel Nair
[29:48] NewsHour continues on television
[29:49] stations of Oregon public broadcasting
[29:51] is our responsibility. Every single one
[29:53] of us in Portland, you can help us by
[29:55] calling 2452345.
[29:58] Elsewhere in Oregon, you might be in
[30:00] Ben, Pendleton, someplace like that or
[30:02] anywhere in southern Washington,
[30:03] wherever you're watching from, you can
[30:05] call us toll-free. There's no charge for
[30:06] the call. 1 8002452346.
[30:10] Hello, I'm Cheryl Hansen and our
[30:11] telephone volunteers this evening are
[30:13] from Davis Wright Tmaine and the OPB
[30:15] Cornerstone Society. When you call, one
[30:18] of them will take your pledge and answer
[30:19] any questions you may have about
[30:21] fulfilling your pledge or about the
[30:22] benefits of membership in OPB. Now, if
[30:25] you've already pledged, we thank you a
[30:26] lot. Unfortunately, I don't hear any
[30:28] phones ringing. Oh, there we go. Made a
[30:30] liar out of me. If you haven't, please
[30:32] call us now before the break is over.
[30:34] Your pledge is the key to the future of
[30:35] OPB. If you really want to make sure
[30:38] that your favorite shows stay in the
[30:40] lineup, you're going to have to call us
[30:41] now. We need your contributions. Now,
[30:43] for a $60 contribution, you'll receive a
[30:46] handsome OPB mug with its unique
[30:48] handetched design. Or for a $100
[30:50] contribution, you get two of the mugs.
[30:52] Butch, anyone who works in television
[30:55] news can tell you that the McNeel
[30:57] NewsHour is admired in the industry. Hi,
[31:00] I'm Charles Swendell. The program has
[31:02] won awards and I'm sure you will
[31:04] continue and it will continue to win a
[31:06] lot more of them. Unfortunately, honors
[31:08] and awards don't pay the bills and the
[31:10] NewsHour is an expensive show to
[31:12] produce. That also means it's expensive
[31:15] to acquire.
[31:17] Hey, I like to hear that's a great noise
[31:19] and that's why your pledge is so
[31:21] important.
[31:23] Overall, your pledges pay for about half
[31:26] of Oregon Public Broadcasting's
[31:27] operating budget. Good evening, I'm
[31:30] Rosemary Scott. Pick any program on OPB
[31:33] and you can be certain that viewer
[31:35] support is crucial to helping it stay on
[31:37] the air. If you're ready to make your
[31:39] membership pledge, we'd like to make
[31:41] things as simple as possible. One of the
[31:43] ways that matters can be simplified is
[31:46] by using a credit card. When you pledge
[31:48] to OPB, use your Visa, your Mastercard,
[31:51] American Express, or Discover card. We
[31:54] can process your pledge more quickly and
[31:56] it saves us from having to send you a
[31:58] bill every month. For your convenience,
[32:00] we have a toll-free number for pledges
[32:02] coming in from anywhere in our viewing
[32:04] area. 1 8002452346.
[32:08] Or if you're calling from Portland, the
[32:10] number is 2452345.
[32:15] >> I'm Claudia Brown.
[32:16] >> I'm Mark Zusman. You watch the McNeel
[32:18] Lair NewsHour for its unique approach
[32:20] and because it's the only full hour of
[32:22] national and international news and the
[32:24] only nightly news at 7 p.m.
[32:26] >> OPB brings you McNeel Lair because you
[32:28] need and deserve more than 12 second
[32:30] sound bites. More than just sensational
[32:32] headlines, but OPD is a partnership and
[32:35] paying for programs like McNeel Lair,
[32:37] Washington Weekend Review, and Northwest
[32:39] Week calls for a commitment from the
[32:41] community, government, business, and
[32:44] from you, our most important partners.
[32:46] Tonight is your chance to make that
[32:48] commitment. Please call now and pledge
[32:49] your support for the McNeel Lair
[32:51] NewsHour and all the other programs you
[32:53] watch here every day. Thank you.
[32:57] >> Public television is television that
[32:59] really matters and when it comes to news
[33:01] and information, you need all that you
[33:03] can get. As a group, Neil McNeer, your
[33:06] view as viewers are very well-informed
[33:08] people. Most people who watch the
[33:10] NewsHour regularly also watch a local or
[33:13] network newscast or subscribe to a
[33:16] newspaper or magazine. Every source of
[33:18] news is avail.
[33:30] OPB is fortunate in being able to have
[33:33] the NewsHour and we hope that it can
[33:35] continue and it can with with your
[33:37] support continue for a long time.
[33:40] Interested in knowing how the media is
[33:42] getting ratings, selling ads, and
[33:44] keeping you in the dark about important
[33:46] issues? Get the latest scoop on attack
[33:49] journalism and how it's changed the
[33:50] political landscape of America and what
[33:53] we're doing about it. Larry Sabato's
[33:55] Feeding Frenzy bears why it's it's
[33:59] really important to understand this
[34:00] trend.
[34:02] To get this book with a pledge of $150,
[34:06] it's yours. It's an eye openener. In
[34:08] Portland, call 2452345.
[34:12] Elsewhere in Oregon, in southern
[34:13] Washington, wherever you're watching,
[34:15] call toll-free
[34:17] 18002452346.
[34:23] Boy, you weren't kidding, Butch. This is
[34:24] a good book. You should call with us
[34:26] your $150 pledge. Let's take just a
[34:28] moment to talk about some of OPB's
[34:30] membership benefits. Now, one of them is
[34:32] the Oregon Focus magazine. It's
[34:34] published monthly exclusively for OPB
[34:36] members, and it's delivered right to
[34:38] your home. Focus is your complete guide
[34:40] to the programs on OPB, and Focus lists
[34:42] the latest discounts available with your
[34:45] Ticket to Oregon membership card. The
[34:47] New Rose Theater in Portland is on that
[34:49] list, as is the High Desert Museum in
[34:51] Ben. And there are many, many other
[34:52] advantages of your ticket to Oregon. You
[34:55] can receive a complete list when you
[34:56] pledge. But first, what do you need to
[34:58] do? You need to make the call, Butch.
[35:01] >> For your convenience, we have a
[35:02] toll-free number for pledges coming from
[35:05] anywhere in the viewing area. It's 1
[35:07] 8002452346.
[35:10] Or if you're calling from Portland, the
[35:12] number is 2452345.
[35:16] Talk to one of our volunteers from Davis
[35:19] Wright Tmaine or the OPB Cornerstone
[35:21] Society. They'll be glad you did. In
[35:24] just a moment, we'll be returning to the
[35:26] NewsHour, but you still have time to
[35:29] call us and we certainly hope to hear
[35:31] from you. Again, 2452345
[35:35] in Portland. Elsewhere, from wherever
[35:38] you're watching, 1 8002452346.
[35:43] Later this evening, you can see a series
[35:46] called Quality or Else, an examination
[35:49] of America's position in the global
[35:51] marketplace and how it can be improved.
[35:54] If you really appreciate this kind of
[35:56] programming, then by all means, let us
[35:59] know about it. Do it with a phone call
[36:01] and a pledge. That's right, Rosemary.
[36:04] Our phone numbers, again, both are
[36:06] tollfree, should be on your screen right
[36:08] now, but we'll give them to you one more
[36:09] time just in case you can't see them or
[36:11] you forgot. In Portland, call 2452345.
[36:14] Elsewhere in Oregon, and we mean
[36:16] anywhere that you're seeing us right
[36:17] now, whether you're in band, Pendleton,
[36:19] Hood River, wherever it might be, you
[36:21] can call us tollfree. There's not a
[36:22] charge. Pick up your phone and dial 1
[36:24] 8002452346.
[36:27] Now, we're going to take you back to the
[36:29] McNeel Lair NewsHour.
[36:42] If you'd prefer to mail us your
[36:43] contribution, here's the address. Oregon
[36:46] Public Broadcasting Foundation, Post
[36:49] Office Box 4373,
[36:51] Portland 97208.
[36:54] However, if you'd like to call in your
[36:56] contribution, our phone volunteers will
[36:58] be glad to take your pledge in Portland
[37:01] 2452345.
[37:04] elsewhere in our viewing area.
[37:06] 1-8002452346.
[37:15] Tuesday is a night of wonder on OPB.
[37:18] First at 8, NOVA takes you aboard the
[37:20] space shuttle. You'll find out what life
[37:22] is like in space and how the Earth looks
[37:24] from up there. Then at 9:00, a National
[37:28] Geographic special takes you a little
[37:30] closer to home to Hawaii on a mission to
[37:32] save some of the endangered native
[37:34] species of plants and animals in this
[37:36] tropical paradise. OPB is where you
[37:40] belong for science and nature. Tuesday
[37:42] night
[38:05] Next tonight, the last in our series of
[38:07] conversations on the state of the US
[38:09] economy. Last week, we heard from three
[38:12] Nobel Prize winning economists, Robert
[38:15] Solo, Paul Samuelson, and Milton
[38:17] Freriedman. Tonight, a fourth. He is
[38:20] James Buchanan, 1986 laurate, professor
[38:23] of economics at George Mason University
[38:26] and founder of the school center for the
[38:28] study of public choice. Charlene Hunter
[38:30] G spoke with Professor Buchanan last
[38:32] week. Professor Buchanan, thank you very
[38:35] much for joining us. There seems to be
[38:37] such a plethora of economic proposals
[38:40] out there. You hearing anything from the
[38:42] candidates that you think is viable?
[38:45] Well, I I hear a mixture of things.
[38:47] There are some things in several
[38:49] candidates that are quite viable. Um I I
[38:53] um in a sense uh uh think of a composite
[38:57] of candidates would be my choice. Uh I
[38:59] certainly hearing things from Jerry
[39:02] Brown that I like very much. namely that
[39:04] he does understand. I think the only
[39:06] candidate who understands
[39:09] uh that uh the uh tax structure should
[39:13] be fixed and in place so that people can
[39:15] make a decisions on the basis of some
[39:18] expectations of quasi permanence. I
[39:21] don't go along necessarily
[39:23] >> excuse me that's one one tax rate for
[39:26] everybody.
[39:27] >> No, no, no, no. I don't go along with
[39:28] that. I I don't I think that's too
[39:30] simplistic. I think that would be added
[39:32] on and it would be a tremendous revenue
[39:34] raiser for the government which would
[39:36] worry me. But I think he's absolutely
[39:38] right in thinking that the tax system
[39:40] ought to be in place. I think we had a
[39:43] legitimate expectation that the 86
[39:45] reform act which did broaden the base
[39:47] very considerably and lowered the rates
[39:50] would have stayed in place for quite a
[39:51] while so people can make their plans on
[39:53] the basis of that tax structure. I think
[39:56] it's scandalous what both parties are
[39:58] doing now. Every year they come back and
[40:00] they manipulate, they change. I don't
[40:02] know how anybody can act under the
[40:04] expectations that the tax structure has
[40:06] any permanence at all. And Brown seems
[40:08] to be the only one recognizing that
[40:10] point.
[40:11] >> What's good about that?
[40:13] >> Well, it seems to me we need a a a
[40:16] structure such that people can make
[40:18] their long range plans. Businessmen in
[40:20] particular uh can make investment plans
[40:23] and so forth. How can you make
[40:24] investment plans when uh one year
[40:27] they're going to put on a investment tax
[40:29] credit, the next year they're going to
[40:30] take it off, one year they're going to
[40:32] reduce capital gains, the next year
[40:33] they're going to put it back on, it just
[40:36] destroys any sort of permanence to the
[40:39] rule, so to speak, to the tax rules. And
[40:42] of course, the secondary bad feature of
[40:44] that continual changing it it it causes
[40:47] some of our best minds to go into law
[40:49] and not into producing value. I mean,
[40:53] worrying about how they're going to uh
[40:55] act for this or that pressure group to
[40:57] get this or that tax favor.
[40:59] >> Mhm. All right. Uh so that's Jerry
[41:01] Brown. One down. What else are you
[41:04] hearing that you like?
[41:05] >> Well, I like Paul Song's recognition
[41:09] that in fact uh we must have the
[41:13] business or productive sector of the
[41:15] economy prosperous in order for anything
[41:17] else to happen. Unless that happens,
[41:19] nothing else can happen. Uh so I
[41:21] certainly like that and although Bob
[41:23] Kerry is no longer in the race, I
[41:25] certainly liked his proposal to cut back
[41:27] on the number of departments and
[41:29] particularly to cut back the size of
[41:31] congressional staffs. Uh that was a very
[41:33] good feature uh of his campaign. I like
[41:38] some of Pat Buchanan's uh idea about
[41:41] cutting back on the intrusion of
[41:42] government in our lives, but of course
[41:44] he offsets that by trying to get the
[41:46] government to protect everybody and
[41:47] everything, which I don't like at all.
[41:50] And I like George Bush's free trade
[41:52] position. Uh but I'm just wondering
[41:54] about whether he has the conviction
[41:56] necessary to carry it through. If he
[41:58] quits carrying Liakoka around with him,
[42:01] maybe I'd be a little more supportive.
[42:02] >> And what about Bill Clint uh Clinton's
[42:04] middle class tax cut, which is echoed in
[42:08] other
[42:08] >> I think the manipulation of the tax code
[42:10] this year by both parties is is just
[42:13] almost an open scandal. and and I I
[42:16] think the best thing to do with the tax
[42:19] system, the best thing we could possibly
[42:20] do would be leave it alone. Again, for
[42:22] the reasons I mentioned,
[42:25] >> what do you think is missing in this
[42:26] debate?
[42:30] >> Well, I I think the what missing in this
[42:32] debate is the following. It seems to me
[42:34] I've been surprised, amazed really that
[42:38] there's been little or no feedback on
[42:40] our politics by the momentous events
[42:44] that have happened in this post89 period
[42:47] where we have we're in a genuinely
[42:49] revolutionary period where the death of
[42:52] socialism has has really uh should have
[42:55] shown us that the solutions to things
[42:57] are not by trying to control the economy
[43:00] through politics. None of our
[43:01] politicians with a partial exception to
[43:03] Jerry Brown seems to have understood
[43:05] that.
[43:05] >> What exactly do you mean by that? I
[43:07] >> I mean that the the our politics or our
[43:10] government should really set the rules
[43:12] to give the framework within which uh
[43:16] private enterprise and business can in
[43:18] fact get the dynamics of the economy
[43:20] going. Congress comes close to
[43:22] recognizing that at times, but still
[43:25] they don't recognize, it seems to me,
[43:27] the the limits of politics and and the
[43:30] the effects of the post-revolutionary
[43:33] moment in a sense does not seem to have
[43:35] fed back on on our political thinking.
[43:38] >> If you were a candidate
[43:40] >> or advising one, what would you be
[43:42] telling that candidate to say to
[43:44] encompass what you just laid out? Well,
[43:47] I would I would like to see us, as I've
[43:50] for a long time, I I I've said, I I
[43:52] would like to see us uh affect try to
[43:56] implement policy and change policy at
[43:58] the level of basic constitutional rules,
[44:02] an economic constitution, so to speak. I
[44:05] for a long time advocated that the
[44:07] federal government should should try to
[44:09] have its budget balanced and and we need
[44:12] a constitutional rule amendment to
[44:14] require the government to b balance its
[44:16] budget. I would like to see the Federal
[44:19] Reserve subjected to to more of a of a
[44:22] dictate that their job is to maintain
[44:24] the value of the dollar for example uh
[44:27] and nothing else. I would like to see uh
[44:30] us us open up our economy to free trade.
[44:33] I would like to see the free trade
[44:35] agreement with Canada and Mexico signed.
[44:38] Those are the kind of things. Those are
[44:40] structural changes, not this
[44:41] temporizing. That's what I object to and
[44:43] I think is very damaging. This sort of
[44:45] shortrun temporizing, manipulating here,
[44:48] there and yan. Uh imposing all sorts of
[44:51] regulatory burdens. But the worst part
[44:53] of all is the is the temporizing that is
[44:56] the the failure to recognize that these
[44:59] political uh effects on the economy
[45:03] should not be continuously changing.
[45:06] >> Why is that happening?
[45:08] >> It's happening because that's the way
[45:11] the politicians
[45:13] uh uh think that they can um satisfy the
[45:18] various pressures. they're simply uh
[45:21] responding to catering to to the
[45:24] pressure groups.
[45:26] >> Just quickly on the on the current
[45:29] recession, one of our Nobel laureates
[45:32] criticized the Fed for not acting soon
[45:34] enough to lower interest rates and that
[45:37] has extended the recession. What's your
[45:40] view of that?
[45:41] >> I think the the Fed made a a mistake
[45:44] last year. They they they failed to
[45:46] understand the impact of the bailout of
[45:49] the savings and loans. They finally came
[45:51] around to understanding in the last week
[45:54] in December and acted quite quickly to
[45:57] try to cover their mistakes that they
[45:58] had made for a year and a half before.
[46:01] Uh now they I think recognize what's
[46:03] going on. Uh whether or not they will
[46:05] overshoot or whether they will do it
[46:07] just right or whether they'll
[46:08] undershoot. I wouldn't know that any
[46:10] more than anybody else would. I I think
[46:12] they are now on top of the of the
[46:14] problem. However,
[46:17] >> so that in terms of of what could
[46:19] happen, what should be happening right
[46:21] now in terms of this recession, both
[46:23] President Congress are working on
[46:24] proposals to cut taxes, help business
[46:27] investment, help homeowners and home
[46:29] builders. Are they on the right track?
[46:32] >> I don't think any of that is needed. I I
[46:34] think that we are going to come out of
[46:36] this recession fairly quickly now
[46:38] because the Fed is moving and has moved
[46:40] very very quickly to uh get some more
[46:43] liquidity in the economy and I think
[46:46] there are all sorts of signs right now
[46:47] that we're moving out. uh whether that's
[46:50] going to be uh you know uh uh effective
[46:54] enough is another question but um uh
[46:57] certainly in a temporary sense I think
[46:59] the manipulation by the congress of
[47:01] trying to do something now it' be better
[47:03] for them not to do anything
[47:05] >> if