PBS NewsHour - 2008-10-31
Channel: malgent
Transcript
Language: English (original, YouTube automatic captions)
[0:10] Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the
[0:12] NewsHour tonight, the news of this
[0:13] Friday, including an end-of-the-month
[0:15] update on the financial and economic
[0:17] crisis.
[0:19] Then, the presidential candidates'
[0:20] pitches with 4 days left in the
[0:22] campaign, a look at the changing South
[0:25] with North Carolina and Georgia in play
[0:28] this year,
[0:29] and the analysis of Mark Shields and
[0:31] David Brooks,
[0:32] plus a report from Montana on climate
[0:35] change and trout fishing.
[0:39] >> Major funding for the NewsHour with Jim
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[1:59] >> Stock markets today finished a great
[2:01] week and a terrible month. They rallied
[2:04] across Asia and Europe, and Wall Street
[2:06] followed suit. The Dow Jones Industrial
[2:09] Average gained 144 points to close at
[2:12] 9325.
[2:14] The NASDAQ rose 22 points to close near
[2:17] 1721.
[2:19] Both indexes were up 11% for the week.
[2:22] Overall, the Dow had its best week since
[2:24] 1974
[2:26] and its worst month since 1987.
[2:30] The latest economic data underscored
[2:32] today that consumers have cut back. The
[2:34] Commerce Department reported consumer
[2:36] spending dropped 3/10 of a percent in
[2:38] September, the most since 2004.
[2:42] And the Labor Department found wages and
[2:44] benefits rose only modestly in the third
[2:47] quarter, keeping inflation in check. A
[2:50] leading House Democrat warned banks
[2:52] today not to use federal rescue funds to
[2:54] pay dividends. Congressman Barney Frank
[2:57] chairs the House Financial Services
[2:59] Committee. He said rescue money is for
[3:01] lending, and he warned banks, "Any use
[3:04] of these funds for any purpose other
[3:06] than lending is a violation of the terms
[3:09] of the act." The presidential candidates
[3:12] headed into the final weekend of the
[3:14] campaign today. Democrat Barack Obama
[3:16] was back where it all started in Iowa.
[3:19] He charged Republican John McCain has
[3:21] abandoned the high road. McCain stayed
[3:25] in Ohio for a second day. He charged
[3:27] Obama is from the liberal left lane of
[3:30] politics. We'll have more on the
[3:32] campaign later in the program tonight.
[3:35] Thousands of refugees tried to head home
[3:37] across eastern Congo today. The reverse
[3:40] migration came as a tense ceasefire held
[3:43] between rebel forces and the Congolese
[3:45] government. We have a report from Martin
[3:48] Geissler of Independent Television News.
[3:51] >> It is a crisis that's threatening to
[3:53] become a catastrophe. Carrying what they
[3:55] can, thousands of Congolese are on the
[3:57] move tonight, fleeing a conflict that's
[3:59] spread across the region, but there's
[4:01] nowhere safe for them to go.
[4:03] Thousands more have set up camp in Goma,
[4:05] trapped and terrified in a city
[4:07] surrounded by rebels and patrolled by
[4:09] squads of drunk soldiers said to be
[4:12] raping and killing at will.
[4:14] >> The population
[4:16] is in confusion, you know, women and
[4:17] children running up and down the streets
[4:19] here uh trying to uh to get out of here.
[4:22] >> The rebel forces called a ceasefire to
[4:24] let the people return to their rural
[4:26] homes, but when they started the
[4:27] journey, some claimed they were shot at.
[4:30] Now they're heading back to a city
[4:31] already full to bursting with dwindling
[4:33] supplies of shelter, food, and water.
[4:36] The lucky ones are too young to know
[4:38] what's happening.
[4:39] Many of the international aid agencies
[4:41] have pulled their staff out of the
[4:42] country, so there's little chance of
[4:44] help arriving soon.
[4:48] The rebels are camped 9 mi outside Goma.
[4:50] Tonight the ceasefire there seems to be
[4:52] holding, but there have been reports of
[4:54] refugee camps in Rutshuru, 50 mi north
[4:56] of the city, being looted and burned to
[4:59] the ground, forcing tens of thousands
[5:01] who were living there to flee into the
[5:02] bush.
[5:03] >> We are in a situation where um
[5:06] essentially we are at a
[5:08] hair trigger.
[5:09] Um that that any incident ultimately
[5:11] could trigger a much larger problem.
[5:13] >> This complex conflict has its roots in
[5:15] the Rwandan genocide of 1994. The rebel
[5:18] leader, Laurent Nkunda, is an ethnic
[5:20] Tutsi. He says he's fighting to protect
[5:22] his tribespeople from Hutu militias in
[5:25] the region and the government forces he
[5:26] claims are backing them. No one here
[5:29] needs to be reminded of the tensions
[5:30] this conflict is stirring up or the
[5:32] catastrophic consequences an escalation
[5:34] in the violence could produce.
[5:37] >> US and UN envoys flew into Goma today,
[5:40] and the European Union decided against
[5:43] deploying military forces to the
[5:45] conflict zone. Member states will focus
[5:48] on diplomacy and humanitarian aid
[5:51] instead. Intelligence officials in
[5:53] Pakistan today reported US missile
[5:55] attacks on two villages. They said 27
[5:58] people were killed, including a
[6:00] mid-level al-Qaeda leader and other
[6:03] foreign fighters. The targets were in
[6:05] two regions along Pakistan's border with
[6:08] Afghanistan. The US has launched at
[6:10] least 17 missile attacks there since
[6:13] mid-August.
[6:15] The man who led the US military surge in
[6:17] Iraq formally took control of Central
[6:19] Command today. Army General David
[6:21] Petraeus will now oversee military
[6:23] operations throughout the Middle East.
[6:26] Petraeus was installed at a ceremony at
[6:29] MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa,
[6:31] Florida. He told the audience the way
[6:33] ahead will be difficult. Petraeus takes
[6:36] his post as American deaths in
[6:38] Afghanistan have outpaced those in Iraq.
[6:41] In October, 15 US troops were killed in
[6:44] Afghanistan. At least 13 Americans died
[6:47] in Iraq. Both numbers were down from
[6:50] September.
[6:51] Studs Terkel, the author and radio
[6:53] broadcaster, died at his home in Chicago
[6:56] today. His radio work ranged from soap
[6:59] operas to news to sports and earned him
[7:02] a vast and loyal audience. Terkel wrote
[7:04] a series of oral history books covering
[7:07] the Great Depression and race relations
[7:09] among other subjects. And in 1985, he
[7:11] won a Pulitzer Prize for his
[7:13] remembrances of World War II in the book
[7:17] The Good War. Studs Terkel was 96 years
[7:20] old and we'll have more on him at the
[7:22] end of the program tonight. And that's
[7:24] it for the news summary tonight. Now,
[7:26] October economics, four more days,
[7:29] changes in the South, Shields and
[7:32] Brooks, and trout fishing in Montana.
[7:42] Jeffrey Brown oversees the economic week
[7:45] and month that were.
[7:47] >> It was, we can say on this Halloween, a
[7:49] very scary month. But on Wall Street at
[7:52] least it ended on a positive note. Our
[7:54] update tonight comes from David Wessel,
[7:56] economics editor of the Wall Street
[7:58] Journal. Well, the worst month in 21
[8:01] years, the best week in 34 years. David,
[8:04] can you offer any helpful perspective
[8:06] for us tonight?
[8:07] >> Well, I don't think you want to take too
[8:08] much comfort in what happened to the
[8:10] stock market in a time like this. It's a
[8:12] little bit like the car is skidding on
[8:14] the ice and you don't want to look at
[8:16] the speedometer too closely cuz that's
[8:18] not where the problem is. But it was
[8:20] good news, as you point out, the market
[8:22] had a great week, up 11 uh percent this
[8:24] week. Uh although for the month, it's it
[8:27] was an awful month, down 14% and the
[8:30] question really is is this the bottom?
[8:32] And the answer is we don't know. All
[8:34] bottoms look like this, but not every
[8:37] market that looks like this is in fact a
[8:39] bottom.
[8:39] >> One thing that continues to rattle
[8:41] people, I think, is the volatility.
[8:43] >> Right.
[8:43] >> Many of us here have decided that maybe
[8:45] it's not worth even looking at the Dow
[8:47] number until 3:55,
[8:49] 5 minutes before the close, because of
[8:51] the huge swings. Do you sense that we
[8:53] just have to get used to that now?
[8:55] >> Uh well, I think for the time being, I
[8:57] think it reflects a couple of things.
[8:58] One is the kind of panic that's out
[9:00] there, where people are not being
[9:02] completely rational. Markets do tend to
[9:04] overshoot at times like this. But
[9:06] secondly, the stock market is only one
[9:09] market and the other markets, the credit
[9:11] markets, the bond markets, the currency
[9:13] markets, they're all behaving very
[9:14] strangely, too. So, they're giving us
[9:17] kind of misleading readings or uncertain
[9:19] readings and at times of uncertainty and
[9:21] panic, you know, traders will do weird
[9:22] things at 5:04 on Halloween.
[9:24] >> Now, there was a lot of bad news this
[9:26] week, the consumer spending, consumer
[9:28] confidence. But what about any good news
[9:31] to report at the end of the week? For
[9:33] example, you just mentioned the credit
[9:34] markets. There were some signs of
[9:36] loosening. What else was out there this
[9:38] week?
[9:38] >> Right. Uh the the important interest
[9:41] rates that we didn't used to pay any
[9:42] attention to a few months ago like the
[9:44] LIBOR, the London Interbank Offered
[9:47] Rate, has come down. That's a sign that
[9:49] the credit markets may be starting to
[9:50] thaw a little bit. That's good.
[9:52] Oil prices are way down, down 33% in the
[9:56] month of October. Uh that's almost like
[9:59] a tax cut for American consumers, the
[10:01] people who are heating their houses and
[10:02] driving their cars with oil. That's a
[10:04] plus. And one thing we don't seem to
[10:06] have to worry about right now is
[10:07] inflation. You know, just a few months
[10:09] ago the fear was the Fed wouldn't be
[10:11] able to help us out of this mess because
[10:13] they were preoccupied with inflation.
[10:15] Well, that fear seems to have completely
[10:16] evaporated.
[10:17] >> Now, there were also many more rumblings
[10:19] this week about what the government has
[10:22] or perhaps has not accomplished yet with
[10:24] all of its uh attempts at dealing with
[10:27] this. There are still a lot of questions
[10:29] out there about the $700 billion billion
[10:32] rescue plan, right?
[10:33] >> Right. Well, there are a lot of
[10:34] questions about the entire federal
[10:36] federal rescue here. Um we've done all
[10:38] that the Fed has done an extraordinary
[10:40] number of things. As you point out, the
[10:42] Congress has appropriated $700 billion.
[10:44] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage
[10:46] giants, have been taken over by the
[10:47] government. Yet, we don't seem to be
[10:49] getting well yet. And I think that's a
[10:51] cause for great concern. The question is
[10:53] whether the medicine is going to take
[10:55] hold soon or whether we need more
[10:57] medicine. With the $700 billion, there's
[10:59] a lot of argument about how best to
[11:01] spend it. And is it being spent well? As
[11:03] you know, there's been a big fight uh
[11:05] about whether giving money to the banks
[11:08] is serving the desired purpose. If they
[11:10] sit on the money, use it to pay
[11:12] dividends, use it to buy other banks,
[11:14] that's doesn't help lending. So, some
[11:16] people want to force them to do lending.
[11:18] And so, there's there's until until
[11:20] things get better, there's going to be a
[11:21] lot of second-guessing.
[11:22] >> Still a lot of talk too about a coming
[11:25] uh proposed plan for housing. And
[11:27] Chairman Fed Chairman Bernanke was
[11:29] talking about the housing market today.
[11:31] And also a lot more talk this week I
[11:34] noticed about a potential stimulus plan,
[11:36] right?
[11:37] >> Right. I think we'll see action on both
[11:38] fronts. Um on the housing front uh the
[11:41] government, whether it's the Bush
[11:42] administration or the next president,
[11:44] plus some of the banks are going to move
[11:47] to deal with the fact that one in five
[11:49] Americans with a mortgage has a mortgage
[11:51] that's greater than the value of the
[11:52] house. And that's not a very stable
[11:54] situation. Those people have nothing to
[11:56] lose by walking away from their houses.
[11:58] In order to reduce foreclosures, both
[12:00] banks, today it was J.P. Morgan Chase,
[12:02] and the government is likely to help
[12:04] these people cut a new mortgage deal. On
[12:06] the stimulus front, well, when all else
[12:08] fails, the economic textbooks tell us
[12:11] the government should spend some money.
[12:13] Fiscal stimulus. And there seem to be a
[12:15] lot of support for that now. Um Fed
[12:17] Chairman Ben Bernanke has endorsed it.
[12:19] Marty Feldstein, who was a Reagan
[12:21] advisor, has endorsed it. Senator Obama
[12:23] has endorsed it. And the Democrats in
[12:25] Congress are not waiting for the
[12:26] inauguration to start moving
[12:28] legislation. The only question is, what
[12:30] will it be,
[12:32] how big will it be, and will it will be
[12:34] will it be designed to help the economy
[12:37] in the near term, or will it be a list
[12:39] of pet projects that by the time the
[12:41] money's spent will be well beyond this
[12:42] episode? And we'll just have to wait and
[12:44] see.
[12:44] >> All right. David Wessel of The Wall
[12:46] Street Journal, one of the many people
[12:47] who helped us get through this very
[12:49] strange month. Thanks again.
[12:50] >> You're welcome.
[13:00] >> Now, today in the presidential race,
[13:02] with just 4 days to go, Ray Suarez has
[13:04] our campaign report.
[13:08] >> John McCain told supporters in
[13:10] Hanoverton, Ohio this morning that they
[13:13] were the key to his chances of winning
[13:15] next Tuesday.
[13:16] >> My friends, it's great to be back. It's
[13:18] great to spend time here in the
[13:20] heartland of America. And again, I want
[13:22] to tell you the enthusiasm and the
[13:25] momentum that I feel here in Ohio is
[13:27] going to carry us to victory here in
[13:29] Ohio and throughout this country.
[13:32] This kind of encouragement he has in
[13:34] >> McCain also kept up his attacks on
[13:36] Barack Obama's tax plan.
[13:39] >> You know, he's made a lot of promises.
[13:40] First he said people making less than
[13:42] $250,000
[13:44] would benefit. Then this weekend he
[13:46] announced it in an ad if your family
[13:48] making less than 200,000 you'll benefit.
[13:51] This week
[13:52] the gift that keeps on giving Senator
[13:54] Biden who said tax relief should only go
[13:57] to middle class people, people making
[14:00] under 150. Get a glimpse of where we're
[14:02] going, my friends?
[14:05] It's fascinating how the liberal left's
[14:08] definition of rich has a way of creeping
[14:11] down. We're going to
[14:12] >> McCain then took aim at Democrats in
[14:14] general for what he described as
[14:16] attempts by the party to scare voters
[14:19] about McCain's plans for Social Security
[14:21] and Medicare. At the same time, the
[14:24] Arizona senator alleged Democrats in
[14:26] Congress were looking to tax retirement
[14:29] contributions.
[14:30] >> Thanks to Speaker Pelosi, Harry Reid,
[14:33] and Barney Frank, we know this Democrat
[14:36] Congress
[14:38] we know it's planning all sorts of new
[14:39] taxes. This week we're hearing they want
[14:42] to tax your 401k contributions.
[14:46] This is a time when we need to encourage
[14:48] more investing, not tax it. We need to
[14:50] protect people's retirement, not
[14:53] endanger it. Now,
[14:55] now here's what's going on.
[14:57] Now here's what's going on. It's
[14:59] Halloween. So what do the Democrats do?
[15:01] Every 4 years they run out and they try
[15:03] to scare seniors by saying that
[15:05] Republicans are going to take away their
[15:07] Social Security or we're going to take
[15:09] away Medicare. They do it every 4 years
[15:12] and my friends, our Americans have wised
[15:15] up.
[15:16] I'm going to protect Social Security.
[15:18] I'm going to protect Medicare and I'm
[15:20] not going to let this Congress tax away
[15:23] your retirement savings.
[15:25] >> McCain was joined at the Ohio rally by
[15:27] former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
[15:30] and South Carolina Senator Lindsey
[15:32] Graham. Graham took the tax charge
[15:34] against the Democrats a step further.
[15:37] >> Our opponent in the next 4 years
[15:41] Pelosi Reid, Obama
[15:47] the tax trifecta from hell. Don't let it
[15:51] happen.
[15:52] >> The Republican ticket's number two,
[15:54] Governor Sarah Palin, campaigned today
[15:57] in Pennsylvania, where she too went
[15:59] after the Democrats as a party.
[16:02] >> Pennsylvania, the far left wing of the
[16:04] Democrat Party is preparing to take over
[16:06] the entire federal government. Now
[16:10] with Democrats in control
[16:13] with Democrats in control of the House
[16:15] and the Senate, heaven forbid the White
[16:17] House, and this isn't the mainstream
[16:20] policy, mainstream thinking in the
[16:22] Democrat Party. It is far left.
[16:24] According to their own stated plans, one
[16:27] of the first things that's going to go,
[16:29] they get to control, monopolize power in
[16:31] DC, will be 1/4 of our defense budget.
[16:38] That's one of the first things on the
[16:40] chopping block. Now, John and I, we have
[16:41] a better idea. Let's not retreat from
[16:44] wars that are almost won.
[16:51] Let's not gut the defense budget in a
[16:53] time of multiple conflicts and obvious
[16:56] dangers, and let's not entrust all the
[16:59] powers of the federal government to the
[17:01] one-party rule of Obama, Pelosi, and
[17:05] Reid.
[17:09] >> Barack Obama, meanwhile, campaigned in
[17:12] Des Moines, Iowa, where his victory in
[17:14] January's caucuses spurred the
[17:16] Democrats' run to the nomination. That
[17:19] fact was not lost on Obama today.
[17:21] >> This campaign began here.
[17:25] You helped launch
[17:28] this campaign.
[17:30] So, the people of Iowa, I I will always
[17:33] be grateful
[17:35] to all of you.
[17:36] >> The senator bemoaned what he said with a
[17:38] slash-and-burn politics of the McCain
[17:40] campaign, tactics Obama said the
[17:43] Republican once opposed.
[17:45] >> You know, a couple elections ago there
[17:46] was a presidential candidate who decried
[17:49] this kind of politics and condemned
[17:51] these kind of tactics. And I admired him
[17:53] for it.
[17:54] He said, "I will not take the low road
[17:56] to the highest office in the land."
[17:59] Those words were spoken 8 years ago by
[18:01] my opponent, John McCain.
[18:03] But the high road didn't lead him to the
[18:04] White House then, so this time he
[18:06] decided to take a different route.
[18:09] I know campaigns are tough
[18:12] because we've got real differences about
[18:13] big issues. We care passionately about
[18:15] this country's future.
[18:16] Make no mistake, we will respond swiftly
[18:19] and forcefully with the truth to
[18:21] whatever falsehoods they throw our way
[18:23] in these last 4 days. The stakes are too
[18:25] high to do anything less.
[18:27] >> One issue Obama said he had to set the
[18:29] record straight on was taxes.
[18:32] >> Let me just see a show of hands. How
[18:34] many people
[18:35] make less than a quarter million dollars
[18:37] a year, raise your hand.
[18:42] All right, now
[18:46] I want you to be very clear here.
[18:49] Here are the facts. There was another
[18:51] report in the New York Times this
[18:52] morning that laid out the fact that I
[18:54] give much more relief to middle-income
[18:59] people.
[19:00] And also that I will not raise taxes for
[19:04] anybody making under $250,000 a year.
[19:08] Not your capital gains tax, not your
[19:09] payroll tax, not your income tax, no
[19:12] taxes. The middle class doesn't need a
[19:14] tax hike.
[19:15] I want to give you a tax cut.
[19:17] So, don't be confused by what John
[19:20] McCain says. My tax rates will be lower
[19:22] than they were under Ronald Reagan.
[19:24] >> Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, began
[19:27] the day with a rally at his alma mater,
[19:29] the University of Delaware, where he
[19:31] sought to tie McCain to the Bush
[19:33] administration.
[19:34] >> Ladies and gentlemen,
[19:36] the Bush legacy,
[19:38] the one THAT JOHN MCCAIN wants to
[19:40] continue, is an AMERICA WHERE WE'RE
[19:42] DIVIDED FROM EACH OTHER, A NATION
[19:45] DIVIDED FROM THE WORLD. BUT, LADIES and
[19:47] gentlemen,
[19:48] an opportunity missed is not an
[19:51] opportunity lost, not yet, not if we
[19:54] recognize the urgency of the moment, not
[19:57] if we have the courage to reject the
[19:59] course that we're on, which is clearly
[20:02] failed, and not if we'll embrace the
[20:04] most enduring American belief, ONE THAT
[20:07] WAS INSTILLED IN ME HERE at this great
[20:09] university. AND THAT IS, WE DO NOT HAVE
[20:12] TO ACCEPT THINGS THE WAY THEY ARE, WE
[20:14] CAN CHANGE THEM.
[20:16] >> Biden will campaign tomorrow in Indiana
[20:18] and Ohio. Obama makes stops in Nevada,
[20:22] Colorado, and Missouri. The Republican
[20:24] ticket heads to a pair of southern
[20:26] states, McCain to Virginia, Palin to
[20:29] Florida.
[20:31] >> And now more on the south and the
[20:33] shifting political map there, Judy
[20:35] Woodruff has that story.
[20:39] >> Some reliable Republican stalwarts have
[20:41] turned into real battlegrounds this
[20:43] year, in particular Virginia, North
[20:45] Carolina, and even Georgia. The
[20:48] presidential contest is having an impact
[20:50] on state races, too. One example, North
[20:53] Carolina, where the Republican incumbent
[20:55] US Senator Elizabeth Dole faces a
[20:58] serious challenge from Democrat Kay
[21:00] Hagan. The tenor of that campaign can be
[21:03] seen in one of Dole's TV ads and in
[21:06] Hagan's response.
[21:08] >> I'm Elizabeth Dole and I approve this
[21:11] message.
[21:12] >> A leader of the Godless Americans PAC
[21:14] recently held a secret fundraiser in Kay
[21:17] Hagan's honor.
[21:19] >> There is no God to rely on. There was no
[21:22] Jesus.
[21:23] >> You're taking under God out of the
[21:24] Pledge of Allegiance, you're down with
[21:26] that.
[21:26] >> We're down with that.
[21:27] >> And In God We Trust, you're going to
[21:28] whip that off the money?
[21:29] >> Yeah, we would.
[21:30] >> Godless Americans and Kay Hagan. She hid
[21:33] from cameras, took Godless money. What
[21:35] did Hagan promise in return?
[21:37] >> There is no God.
[21:39] >> I'm Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole's
[21:41] attacks on my Christian faith are
[21:43] offensive. She even faked my voice in
[21:46] her TV ad to make you think I don't
[21:48] believe in God. Well, I believe in God.
[21:52] I taught Sunday school. My faith guides
[21:54] my life and Senator Dole knows it. Sure,
[21:58] politics is a tough business, but I
[22:00] approve this message because my campaign
[22:03] is about creating jobs and fixing our
[22:05] economy, not bearing false witness
[22:07] against fellow Christians.
[22:09] >> For more on these Southern states in
[22:11] play, we turn to Rob Christensen,
[22:13] political reporter for the Raleigh News
[22:15] and Observer and author of the book The
[22:17] Paradox of Tar Heel Politics and Jim
[22:20] Galloway, political columnist for the
[22:23] Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
[22:25] Thank you both for being with us and Rob
[22:27] Christensen to you first. What do those
[22:29] two ads say about the state of the
[22:30] Senate race in your state?
[22:33] >> Well, it's obviously a Hail Mary pass by
[22:36] by Senator Dole. She would not have run
[22:39] such a risky ad if she wasn't in in some
[22:43] trouble in the state. Um it is an ad
[22:46] that
[22:47] designed to to get the base out those
[22:50] vote out Republicans, but it's very
[22:52] risky because Elizabeth Dole's also had
[22:54] a lot of support from suburban women for
[22:56] example. And so this has been Uh, uh,
[23:00] she risks uh, losing the so-called
[23:03] Southern Living magazine, uh, voters,
[23:06] uh, who, uh, who are not particularly
[23:07] ideological in this because it was so,
[23:09] so tough.
[23:10] >> Well, she started out not only as the
[23:12] incumbent, but the very, very well-known
[23:14] incumbent. What happened?
[23:16] >> Well, there's a couple things. And
[23:17] you're exactly right, Judy. In fact,
[23:19] most of the big name Democrats in the
[23:20] state passed on the race cuz they saw a
[23:22] year ago, they thought Elizabeth Dole
[23:24] was invulnerable. Uh, couple things to
[23:26] think about. Uh, Elizabeth Dole when she
[23:27] ran in 2002, she was recruited by the
[23:30] White House. Uh, President Bush
[23:31] campaigned with her five times in North
[23:34] Carolina more than any other in the
[23:35] country except for, uh, his brother Jeb
[23:37] Bush in Florida. And now, of course,
[23:40] obviously Bush's numbers are, uh, have
[23:42] collapsed. And, uh, and so, uh, the race
[23:45] in 2002 was, uh, right after 9/11.
[23:48] National security was the issue. This
[23:50] time, it's, uh, it's the economy. And
[23:52] the economy's not doing well here.
[23:54] >> Let me quickly turn you then to the
[23:55] presidential, uh, contest in North
[23:58] Carolina where Senator Obama is ahead by
[24:01] a few points as an average of a number
[24:03] of the polls we've been looking at. Help
[24:06] us understand what's going on at that
[24:07] level.
[24:08] >> Well, there's a couple things going on
[24:09] here, Judy. One is the economy. And not
[24:10] only are we shedding jobs in the
[24:12] traditional old economy like textiles
[24:14] and furniture, but even the new
[24:16] economy's hurting. Look at Wachovia
[24:18] Bank, the big Charlotte bank that just
[24:19] been taken over by, uh, Wells Fargo. And
[24:22] then you have the Iraq war. Even though
[24:24] North Carolina has a lot of military
[24:25] bases, the war has lost popularity here
[24:27] as elsewhere. The demographics are
[24:29] changing. North Carolina is a very
[24:31] fast-growing Sunbelt state. We've had,
[24:34] uh, millions of new voters move into the
[24:36] state over the last 20 years. And while
[24:39] a lot of them are Republicans and
[24:40] independents, they are, they are, you
[24:42] might call them "Storbock Republicans."
[24:44] They're more moderate on social issues.
[24:46] They're more open to, they're not the
[24:48] old-style Jesse Helms Republicans that
[24:49] were so used to in North Carolina. And
[24:51] they're more open to an Obama. And the
[24:53] other thing to look at here in North
[24:55] Carolina is that usually Democratic
[24:57] primaries or Republican primaries either
[24:59] don't matter in North Carolina because
[25:00] they're held in May. Usually the
[25:01] nominations all set up by then. Not this
[25:04] time. This time in fact
[25:07] what happened was that North Carolina
[25:08] mattered and Obama had a tremendous
[25:10] effort here and of course beat Hillary
[25:11] Clinton here. He just transitioned in
[25:13] May right into the general election. He
[25:15] had a huge political organization
[25:16] sitting here and he has used that and
[25:19] McCain people were very slow to to to
[25:23] combat this. They didn't really take the
[25:25] Obama effort here seriously till after
[25:27] Labor Day and they've been playing
[25:28] catch-up ever since.
[25:29] >> Well, let's move a few miles south
[25:31] two states down to Georgia and to Jim
[25:34] Galloway. Jim in in your state Senator
[25:37] McCain is up but only by a few points
[25:40] again averaging the polls you got a
[25:42] third party candidate. Give us the lay
[25:44] of the land there.
[25:46] >> Uh well,
[25:48] Judy that's exactly right and the the
[25:50] polls shift according as as as the voter
[25:53] pool the the the perceptions of the
[25:55] voter pool changes.
[25:57] Uh the if if if you're only talking
[25:59] likely voters then McCain pulls ahead
[26:02] and he's just edging out 50% but if you
[26:04] if you start to to conceive of a voter
[26:07] pool that we haven't seen before
[26:09] one with with much heavier black turnout
[26:13] with with many more young people then
[26:15] then McCain starts to sink rapidly and
[26:18] and and there there are many people here
[26:20] who think that uh
[26:22] that the race will turn on on two
[26:23] things. One is the performance of Bob
[26:25] Barr the Libertarian presidential
[26:27] candidate who's a who's a former Georgia
[26:29] Congressman. Uh
[26:31] uh served uh
[26:32] uh four terms here and and and and left
[26:35] quite popular and uh the the influx of
[26:39] new voters.
[26:40] >> Now, what do you mean?
[26:41] >> many you
[26:41] >> Well, let me yeah let me let me ask you
[26:43] about those new voters because Georgia
[26:44] has not gone Republican in the
[26:47] presidential contest since 1992.
[26:50] Uh what's changed?
[26:53] >> Well, what's what's changed is as as as
[26:56] with as with North Carolina
[26:57] >> it has not gone Democratic. I misspoke.
[26:59] >> Exactly. Exactly. I mean, our last
[27:02] last went Democratic in 1992 with with
[27:05] Bill Clinton's first election. And ever
[27:07] since then we've been just highly highly
[27:09] reliable
[27:11] reliable
[27:13] Republican territory. So reliable that
[27:16] you'll recall that in in right before
[27:18] Labor Day Barack Obama dropped his ads
[27:21] here with you some of his paid staff.
[27:24] McCain has never had a headquarters in
[27:27] Georgia. He was so confident of Georgia.
[27:29] He still doesn't. He was planning to
[27:31] piggyback off US Senator Saxby Chambliss
[27:34] off off that campaign. And what's
[27:37] happened is
[27:38] quite frankly the economy and Barack
[27:41] Obama. Barack Obama has just brought out
[27:44] a a
[27:46] a surge of voters that we just have not
[27:48] seen. Georgia has Georgia has one of the
[27:51] now has one of the earlier voting
[27:53] periods
[27:54] in the nation 45 days. We started
[27:57] 45 days before before this last Tuesday.
[27:59] We started in September voting. And
[28:01] consistently
[28:03] African-Americans
[28:04] have made up 35% plus of the turnout.
[28:09] And and usually usually in the last two
[28:12] cycles it's been right at 24%.
[28:14] >> And as you just mentioned the Republican
[28:15] incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss
[28:17] Chambliss facing a tough challenge from
[28:21] the Democrat Jim Martin.
[28:23] >> This wasn't supposed to happen at all.
[28:26] The DSCC just really had to had to
[28:29] persuade Martin to enter the race this
[28:31] last last spring. They had to put some
[28:33] some some some hard pressure on him. And
[28:35] and he he had he entered he he had to go
[28:38] through a Democratic primary runoff and
[28:40] had no money as of early August. So his
[28:44] his campaign really wasn't going
[28:46] anywhere.
[28:47] until
[28:48] quite frankly until the bailout.
[28:51] The bailout is is is central to this
[28:54] campaign right now. Saxby Chambliss and
[28:57] Johnny Isakson, they took a risk and
[28:59] they linked up with Democrats. They
[29:01] joined the the Democratic effort in the
[29:02] Senate to
[29:04] to to pass that 700 million rescue
[29:06] package
[29:07] while
[29:08] all of Georgia's House members, all
[29:10] seven, voted against it. And that's
[29:13] that's created a terrific split in the
[29:15] Republican Party.
[29:17] >> Very quickly, what could that race turn
[29:18] on? I want to ask both of you that
[29:20] question.
[29:22] Just the presidential race in Georgia.
[29:26] >> Presidential race in Georgia, I think is
[29:27] is is is is just going to be
[29:30] a matter of whether whether African
[29:33] Americans keep up their numbers and
[29:35] quite frankly
[29:36] voter voter fatigue among Republicans.
[29:39] The lines are going to be extremely long
[29:42] and it's it's going to be a matter of
[29:44] whether these Republicans stay in there.
[29:46] >> Quickly, Rob Christensen in the
[29:48] presidential contest in North Carolina,
[29:51] what's that going to turn on?
[29:52] >> Turnout, turnout, turnout. We have early
[29:54] voting here. Strong African-American
[29:56] turnout. Also a lot of young people. We
[29:58] have a lot of colleges and universities
[30:00] here.
[30:01] The metropolitan areas are going to be
[30:02] very strongly for Obama and then in the
[30:04] countryside and the small towns and
[30:06] rural areas are going to be McCain
[30:07] country. But turnout is going to be the
[30:09] key.
[30:10] >> Rob Christensen and Jim Galloway, we
[30:13] appreciate it. Thank you both.
[30:23] >> And to the analysis of Shields and
[30:25] Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark
[30:27] Shields and New York Times columnist
[30:28] David Brooks. First, David, how do you
[30:30] read the importance of North Carolina,
[30:32] Georgia and the other southern states
[30:33] what we just heard?
[30:34] >> Especially in the Senate, really
[30:36] important. If McCain starts losing those
[30:38] states in the presidential, he'll he'll
[30:39] lose by a lot. But to me, two things are
[30:41] going on here. The one, which I
[30:42] associate a little more with Georgia, is
[30:44] that this is just a tough year for
[30:46] Republicans, and so they're going to be
[30:47] challenged in a lot of states they
[30:48] really shouldn't be challenged in. But
[30:50] then there's a second uh trend, which I
[30:52] associate more with North Carolina,
[30:54] which is really a long tectonic shift
[30:56] away from the Republican Party,
[30:58] especially in places like North
[30:59] Carolina, where as we've heard, you've
[31:00] got the people moving from the from the
[31:02] north down in North Carolina, and then
[31:04] you've got the rise, especially around
[31:05] the research triangle area, of highly
[31:07] educated people. And young people, and
[31:09] those people are fleeing the Republican
[31:10] Party in droves. And so I've spent a lot
[31:12] of time in North Carolina, and people
[31:14] had a sense the Democrats were going to
[31:15] do a lot better year upon year. I think
[31:18] they were surprised it's happening this
[31:19] year. They thought it might happen 4
[31:21] years or 8 years from now, because there
[31:23] has been this long-term trend away from
[31:25] the Republican Party to the Democratic
[31:27] Party, because the Republicans are
[31:28] losing these sorts of people, highly
[31:29] educated people.
[31:30] >> Yeah. And also the surge in the
[31:32] African-American vote as
[31:33] >> surge in the African-American vote is is
[31:35] enormous. I I do think, Jim, that the
[31:38] significance is more than just this
[31:39] election.
[31:41] Um because we've had a given of a solid
[31:44] South, really, for the past 40 years,
[31:46] that it's been the most reliable,
[31:48] dependable, and homogeneous Republican
[31:50] >> Beginning with Richard Nixon.
[31:51] >> Beginning with Richard Nixon, George
[31:52] Wallace in 1968, and then Nixon bought
[31:54] in the Wallace vote in '72. And so the
[31:57] Democrats have really not been
[31:58] competitive there. And uh I think that
[32:01] when you any area of the country becomes
[32:04] more competitive,
[32:05] uh it's it's not only healthy for our
[32:07] politics, uh but it's it's very healthy
[32:09] for the two-party system. Uh that
[32:12] Democrats now have to think in terms of
[32:15] uh
[32:16] the support of and the encouragement and
[32:18] the re-election of Democrats who are
[32:20] elected from that region, if they're
[32:21] going to if they're going to in fact
[32:24] compete there in a real way.
[32:26] >> Now, on a more overview question here,
[32:27] we're on a Friday before uh Tuesday's
[32:30] election. Much has been said, Mark,
[32:32] about uh
[32:34] how well the Barack Obama campaign has
[32:37] been run. How do you read that this this
[32:40] state? Now, we don't know how it's going
[32:41] to turn out, but how well just as a
[32:43] campaign?
[32:45] >> Jim, there's a dirty little secret in
[32:46] the press, and that is this, that if you
[32:49] win, you're a genius.
[32:50] >> Yeah.
[32:51] >> If you lose, you're a
[32:52] >> It's not a secret anymore. You just told
[32:53] everybody.
[32:54] >> I just told everybody. And And But I
[32:56] mean, you want to go through Hamilton
[32:57] Jordan being the greatest example.
[32:59] Hamilton Jordan was very able political
[33:01] operative, the late Hamilton Jordan, ran
[33:04] Jimmy Carter's campaign. One term
[33:06] ex-governor of Georgia beats the face
[33:08] cards of the Democratic Party in 1976,
[33:11] steals the Democratic nomination, wins
[33:14] the White House, first Southerner since
[33:16] the Civil War to win the Democratic
[33:18] nomination for president. Uh an
[33:21] achievement of just
[33:22] towering magnitude. Four years later,
[33:25] Jimmy Carter is unelected president by
[33:28] Ronald Reagan, who carries 44 states.
[33:30] Now, Hamilton Jordan, what did he lose?
[33:32] 70 IQ points in those four years? No. I
[33:34] mean, it's just it's part of the
[33:36] formula. Has it been a good campaign?
[33:38] It's been a superb It's been very
[33:39] disciplined. Every campaign is
[33:42] ultimately, inevitably a mirror
[33:44] reflection of the candidate. The
[33:46] candidate's
[33:46] strengths and weaknesses are reflected
[33:49] in whom the candidate chooses to run the
[33:51] campaign, how the campaign's run. It's
[33:53] been disciplined. It's been harmonious.
[33:55] Winning campaigns are more harmonious
[33:56] than losing campaigns, which are civil
[33:58] wars in leper colony.
[34:01] >> How do you read it, David? The Obama
[34:03] campaign
[34:03] >> It has been a smoothly run campaign. The
[34:05] thing that strikes me about the campaign
[34:06] is how nice it is. I mean, they're
[34:08] they're not always accessible,
[34:10] especially with the candidate, but they
[34:12] are nice people. When In our business,
[34:15] you write something negative about a
[34:16] campaign, and you get a call off in the
[34:18] next day, and they tell you you're a
[34:20] complete idiot.
[34:21] Uh with the Obama campaign, they'll call
[34:23] you up and they'll say, you know, David,
[34:24] we love you, you're a great guy, we
[34:26] really respect your work. It's so sad
[34:28] that you're a complete idiot. And so,
[34:30] they make you feel better about it while
[34:31] they deliver the message. And that
[34:33] niceness I think is is a reflection from
[34:35] Obama. It's been a smoothly run
[34:37] campaign. They haven't taken a lot of
[34:38] chances, but they've made practically
[34:40] zero mistakes. Does that mean he'll be a
[34:42] great president? Not necessarily. I
[34:43] think the best campaign I've seen in
[34:45] recent history was the George Bush 2000
[34:47] campaign, which I thought was a
[34:48] masterpiece of a campaign in a very
[34:50] hostile environment. Did it mean he
[34:52] would turn out to be a great manager and
[34:54] president? Well, history worse can
[34:55] decide.
[34:55] >> Yeah. But what about the the people
[34:58] around Obama? They're the same people
[35:00] who were around him when it began,
[35:02] right? Is that does that mean something?
[35:04] >> It does and it means somebody who came
[35:06] from the Clinton world and entered the
[35:07] Obama world. The this person said to me
[35:09] they're in it for all the right reasons.
[35:11] Which is say it's not an auction their
[35:13] career to move up. They're in it because
[35:15] of Obama.
[35:16] And that's that's important. And there's
[35:19] there I mean from my point of view
[35:22] they're moderate people. They're they're
[35:24] not flaky. Personally, they tend to be
[35:26] very even tempered. And I think even
[35:28] ideologically they tend to be moderate
[35:31] Democrats and not off on any fringe.
[35:34] >> David Axelrod is about to go into the
[35:36] Cooperstown of political operatives
[35:39] consultants.
[35:41] He's very good. He's been a major
[35:43] major indispensable for us.
[35:45] >> His title is uh chief strategist. Chief
[35:47] strategist, former reporter for the
[35:49] Chicago Tribune.
[35:50] >> He's to be you know trusted senior
[35:51] advisor or whatever you want to call it
[35:53] quote unquote. But David Axelrod worked
[35:56] for John Edwards in 2004. Um
[36:00] you know his genius was somehow not
[36:02] clearly as visible in a losing campaign.
[36:05] I mean so I mean is David Axelrod good?
[36:08] Sure. But I mean there's a great Russian
[36:10] proverb that says winning has a
[36:12] fragrance all its own.
[36:13] >> The Russians said that?
[36:14] >> Yeah, the Russians said that. And and I
[36:16] just thought I think it's important to
[36:18] bear that in mind. It does have a
[36:19] fragrance. Boy, you know and you start
[36:21] to believe you got an IQ of 200 and
[36:23] you're 7 ft tall. But I I do think that
[36:26] it's been
[36:27] David's point about them. They have They
[36:30] are at the campaign itself. The people
[36:32] in it have never been taken with their
[36:34] self-importance.
[36:36] Contrast it with the Giuliani campaign,
[36:38] which was the
[36:39] mid-Dale Carnegie's book look like
[36:42] required reading for everybody in
[36:43] politics. It was the most abrasive I've
[36:46] ever dealt with.
[36:47] >> Another overview question, David.
[36:50] When you look back, this has been a very
[36:52] long campaign. Let's face it, almost 2
[36:53] years for everybody concerned. Do you Do
[36:56] you look back now and see some really
[36:58] turning points, major turning points
[37:00] that really caused this thing to happen
[37:03] that we're now sitting here
[37:05] John McCain versus Barack Obama 2 years
[37:07] later.
[37:08] >> Right. I would say for McCain it was the
[37:10] surge. This is just the surge and the
[37:12] success of the surge, which made him a
[37:13] viable candidate. That was the good one.
[37:16] And then the bad one I think was about
[37:17] the same time, the depths of the
[37:18] campaign when they shook up the
[37:19] campaign. They got people who were more
[37:21] organized, but also more conventionally
[37:23] Republican. And I think he's run a more
[37:26] conventional campaign than he should
[37:27] have because of those people that
[37:29] surrounded him then, and that's why he
[37:31] picked Sarah Palin because he's run a
[37:33] much more conventionally Republican
[37:34] campaign. So I think the the key moments
[37:36] were way back then, which were sort of
[37:38] set in stone what it would happen
[37:39] afterwards. For Barack Obama, I'd say it
[37:41] was the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner in
[37:43] Iowa last winter where he discovered
[37:45] that voice,
[37:47] the hope message, which really
[37:48] electrified people for a long time. And
[37:50] then which
[37:52] set him off on the trajectory. And then
[37:54] I think it was in the middle of the
[37:55] Clinton fight where she ran that 3:00
[37:58] a.m. ad.
[37:59] And he sort of shifted from hope and and
[38:02] the effervescence and became much more
[38:04] reassuring and experienced, and became I
[38:07] think a much more prosaic candidate as a
[38:09] result. But I think those were the two
[38:11] trajectories. I do have to say about
[38:12] Obama, there are very few turning
[38:14] points.
[38:15] McCain has a lot of them.
[38:17] Obama, he's not a turning point kind of
[38:18] guy. It's just pretty steady.
[38:20] >> What do you think, Mark?
[38:21] >> Uh, Jim,
[38:23] first of all,
[38:24] nobody chooses the environment in which
[38:26] he runs.
[38:28] Um, it was an unfriendly, unforgiving
[38:30] environment for John McCain. He was
[38:32] running at a time when he was seeking
[38:34] the third term, White House term for his
[38:36] party, a singularly unpopular president
[38:39] of his party, an unpopular war, a
[38:42] sluggish economy that turned into
[38:43] crisis. So, I mean, that that that's a
[38:46] factor beyond his control.
[38:49] Uh, and uh So, if John McCain uh runs
[38:52] close on Tuesday, uh I
[38:54] you know, I'm not making predictions,
[38:56] but I will make a prediction if he does
[38:57] run close, he's done well
[38:59] uh in that sense. But, um the the
[39:02] reality is the deck was stacked against
[39:04] him. I think the most important thing
[39:06] was he made a faulty decision at the
[39:09] outset to try and run a George Bush
[39:11] clone campaign, a big national campaign,
[39:15] a lot of money, big budget, uh and it
[39:18] came a cropper. It absolutely imploded.
[39:21] And at that point, John McCain returned
[39:23] to what John McCain had been. He he
[39:25] became the John McCain of town meetings
[39:27] in New Hampshire. He went back. New
[39:29] Hampshire was his venue uh to rescue
[39:31] that campaign. And it was uh it was
[39:33] quite impressive.
[39:34] Uh and he he he did it uh almost
[39:36] single-handedly. Um
[39:38] if if John McCain had
[39:40] >> But, that was to get the nomination.
[39:41] >> Yes. If he had run if he had run the
[39:43] John McCain campaign of 2000 in 2008, um
[39:47] the guy who took on tobacco, the guy who
[39:50] had taken on soft money, the guy who
[39:52] stood independently of his own party,
[39:54] who took on who stood for
[39:57] middle-income tax cuts and low-income
[39:59] tax cuts, and wanted to make Social
[40:00] Security solvent, not to give money to
[40:03] tax cuts, as he put it, to to the
[40:06] millionaires,
[40:08] um I I think John McCain would have been
[40:09] uh
[40:11] far more competitive candidate. He
[40:13] became
[40:13] >> In the general election.
[40:14] >> general election, became a far more
[40:15] conventional Republican.
[40:18] Uh and as David pointed out in Obama's
[40:20] case Obama
[40:22] I think to to his credit understood the
[40:25] definition of leadership to me
[40:27] politically is that a leader know and
[40:29] understand himself or herself and know
[40:31] and understand the times in which he
[40:32] lives. Obama understood both. He always
[40:37] stayed within his own game in the sense
[40:39] of as a candidate. He he was true to
[40:41] himself. He was cool. He was confident.
[40:43] He never tried to to stepped outside of
[40:46] that.
[40:47] >> And be somebody else.
[40:47] >> Be somebody else and and it served him
[40:49] very well especially in the in the
[40:51] crisis. And and finally Jim
[40:53] he was the anti-war candidate in an
[40:55] anti-war party.
[40:57] If Hillary Clinton had done what John
[40:58] Edwards done and changed her position on
[41:00] the war she she would have been very
[41:02] competitive and he was gifted that she
[41:04] ran as a an incumbent candidate as a
[41:07] candidate who was ready in a year of
[41:08] change when people were looking for
[41:10] continuity.
[41:11] >> Look we're not in the prediction
[41:13] business here but we're just the rest
[41:15] stand right now. I won't hold you to it.
[41:17] >> It's tightened a little
[41:18] but
[41:19] John McCain is behind in all the king
[41:21] swing states by a little and he would
[41:24] have to really win them all to win the
[41:25] presidency. So he's he's gotten some
[41:27] traction last week I think by calling
[41:28] Obama a liberal spender but hasn't
[41:31] changed the momentum basically.
[41:33] >> The most admirable thing John McCain did
[41:35] was not not to play the race card in
[41:37] this campaign and for that he should he
[41:40] deserves some credit. He did some other
[41:42] things that he's not going to feel good
[41:44] about but they not doing that. I I think
[41:46] it's a I think it's a
[41:48] the over under I'd say is five points as
[41:50] they say in Las Vegas. I mean I think
[41:52] he'll he'll win by
[41:53] he Obama will win the popular vote for
[41:56] somewhere between four and five percent
[41:58] and I think his electoral college
[41:59] electoral college between 340 and 350.
[42:01] >> Does that make sense to you?
[42:02] >> I put a little higher. I actually think
[42:04] it's going to swing Obama's way a little
[42:05] more six seven eight nine points that
[42:07] it'll be a pretty convincing win and
[42:08] >> Yeah well if that's if that's the case
[42:10] it'll truly be historic because it is,
[42:12] well, you know, other than Franklin
[42:14] Roosevelt, only Lyndon Johnson of all
[42:16] the Democrats ever elected get more than
[42:18] 50.1%.
[42:19] >> Absolutely. And but I don't think the
[42:20] Democrats will get 60 votes in the
[42:21] Senate, which to me is right now the key
[42:23] thing.
[42:23] >> Okay, David, Mark, we'll see see how
[42:26] wrong or right you are. Thank you both.
[42:27] >> Thank you.
[42:34] >> And now the first in an occasional
[42:36] series on climate change, we begin with
[42:38] a report on drought and trout in
[42:40] Montana. Our story is produced by
[42:43] Climate Central, a non-partisan
[42:45] scientific research group. The reporter
[42:47] is Heidi Cullen, a climatologist and
[42:49] correspondent for The Weather Channel.
[43:01] >> Montana, known for its big sky and its
[43:05] big trout. The skies are as stunning as
[43:08] ever, but all is not well with Montana's
[43:12] trout population.
[43:14] Warmer temperatures are setting off a
[43:16] series of interconnected changes that
[43:18] are affecting Montana, but we begin with
[43:20] the trout. Scientists project that
[43:23] increasing temperatures in the coming
[43:24] decades could cause significant
[43:27] reductions in trout habitat in Montana,
[43:29] placing the more than $300 million
[43:32] fishing industry in jeopardy.
[43:34] >> I started guiding in auto West
[43:36] Yellowstone in 1980.
[43:38] >> Craig Matthews is a well-known fishing
[43:40] guide and owner of Blue Ribbon Flies in
[43:42] West Yellowstone.
[43:44] >> The changes I've seen in the 30 years
[43:46] that I've been here, I've seen a lot of
[43:47] sedimentation in the streams. I've seen
[43:49] lower water, particularly the last 10 or
[43:51] 12 years.
[43:52] >> The summer drought season in Montana has
[43:54] grown longer.
[43:56] >> This is the Westfork
[43:58] and we have a tailwater which kicks out
[44:00] some cool water in the summer that helps
[44:03] with the fishery.
[44:04] >> Jenny West is a fishing guide on the
[44:06] Bitterroot River near Missoula. She's
[44:08] been fishing the Bitterroot since she
[44:09] was 12 years old.
[44:10] >> The key is July. If July is dry, then we
[44:14] have a pretty big drought.
[44:16] >> In addition to the long summer drought,
[44:18] the winter snowpack is melting earlier.
[44:20] >> And the big trend that we've identified
[44:24] in the last 50 years is that we're
[44:27] getting a bit less snow, and it's
[44:30] starting to melt on the order of two or
[44:32] three weeks earlier.
[44:34] >> Steve Running is a professor of ecology
[44:36] at the University of Montana in Missoula
[44:39] and a member of the Intergovernmental
[44:40] Panel on Climate Change, which was
[44:42] co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace
[44:45] Prize.
[44:46] >> Trout are what we call simply a cold
[44:48] water species. And so, a trout literally
[44:52] dies at water temperatures above about
[44:55] 78°.
[44:57] It's pretty easy to warm up water above
[44:59] 78° if it's just standing still. And so,
[45:02] what keeps our water temperatures cool
[45:05] is that snow melt out of the mountains
[45:07] continuing to flow down through our
[45:09] rivers. As our rivers run out of flow,
[45:12] and you're left with just sitting pools
[45:15] of water, that 78° threshold for trout
[45:19] mortality gets pretty easy to attain.
[45:22] >> Running calculates that March
[45:23] temperatures in Montana have risen 5 to
[45:26] 7° since the 1950s. As the graph shows,
[45:29] there is natural climate variability,
[45:31] and some years are cooler and wetter,
[45:33] like this year. But, the upward trend is
[45:36] unmistakable, a trend that scientists
[45:38] say is consistent with global warming.
[45:40] >> The final ramification of that is that
[45:44] our late summer stream flows in July and
[45:46] August are just dwindling to lower and
[45:49] lower stream flows. And that's really
[45:52] going to ultimately impact our trout
[45:54] populations and our fishing tourism.
[45:58] >> In Montana, that's especially true
[46:00] because water is so integral to the
[46:02] economy.
[46:03] >> It doesn't matter whether someone's
[46:04] actually, you know, dipping a line in
[46:06] the water and and catching a fish. It's
[46:09] the restaurant meal, equipment, guide,
[46:11] and the hotel room. There's all that
[46:14] ripple effect.
[46:15] >> As mayor of Missoula, John Engan knows
[46:17] that healthy fish fuel a whole network
[46:19] of economic relationships that local
[46:21] populations depend on.
[46:23] >> If you think of the trout in this stream
[46:26] as the canary in the coal mine, if this
[46:29] stream isn't healthy, if it can't
[46:31] support this iconic species of fish and
[46:34] its varieties, can this place support
[46:38] another iconic species, which is the
[46:41] independent Westerner?
[46:44] >> Another effect of warmer, drier
[46:46] conditions is increased wildfires.
[46:49] >> Wildfire rates are going up
[46:51] dramatically. Insect epidemics are going
[46:54] up dramatically.
[46:55] >> Fewer sub-zero days in winter allow the
[46:58] voracious pine bark beetles, normally
[47:01] killed off by the winter freeze, to
[47:03] survive into another season. More
[47:05] beetles means more dead timber, making
[47:08] that timber even more combustible, more
[47:10] susceptible to forest fires.
[47:12] >> Our economy is affected by drought,
[47:16] um
[47:16] mostly in terms of fire and the toll
[47:18] that fire takes on our collective
[47:20] resources in this state.
[47:23] >> Droughts have been very much a part of
[47:24] the Western United States as far back as
[47:26] we can tell.
[47:27] >> Roger Pielke Sr. is an atmospheric
[47:29] scientist at the University of Colorado
[47:31] in Boulder and has studied drought in
[47:33] the West. Whereas many scientists see
[47:35] the climate of the West shifting toward
[47:37] almost permanent summer drought, Pielke
[47:40] is reluctant to link drought to man-made
[47:42] changes in climate. He sees the looming
[47:44] water crisis as one result of population
[47:47] growth.
[47:48] >> Multi-decade long droughts have occurred
[47:49] in the past. So, regardless of how
[47:51] climates change because of human
[47:52] activity, we have to adapt and we have
[47:55] to mitigate as much as possible to try
[47:57] to reduce their impacts.
[48:00] >> Across Montana, one key adaptation
[48:02] strategy involves finding new ways to
[48:05] use available water more efficiently.
[48:08] But, there are competing claims for that
[48:10] water. As they like to say out here,
[48:13] whiskey's for drinking, water's for
[48:15] fighting.
[48:17] >> We need to really start protecting
[48:19] not only the value of the water, but
[48:22] protection of the use of that water for
[48:24] agriculture.
[48:26] >> Walt Sales is a fourth-generation farmer
[48:28] in the Gallatin Valley near Bozeman.
[48:31] Agriculture contributes $2.4 billion a
[48:34] year to Montana's economy. But, over the
[48:36] last decade, less snowmelt in the state
[48:39] has reduced stream flow at the time when
[48:41] farmers and trout need it most.
[48:44] Sales values his water rights, but also
[48:47] understands the need to find balance
[48:49] with fishermen.
[48:50] >> We really like to see people enjoy our
[48:54] natural resources, but we also want that
[48:56] respect knowing that this is somebody's
[48:59] property. And it's a gift to the people
[49:02] of the state. And hopefully that will
[49:04] carry over with the recreationists and
[49:06] others. And it has.
[49:07] >> However, Professor Running suggests the
[49:10] conflict is more pronounced than either
[49:12] side lets on.
[49:13] >> This is
[49:15] a real tug-of-war between the
[49:17] recreationists wanting water in the
[49:19] river and the landowners that are trying
[49:22] to grow crops to make a livelihood. And
[49:24] yet, we don't have enough spare water to
[49:27] do both. So, the day is going to come in
[49:30] 20, 30, 40 years where there's going to
[49:34] have to be less irrigation of crops in
[49:37] order to keep water in the streams. And
[49:40] those landowners will have to go to dry
[49:42] land farming. And I'm sure someone is
[49:45] going to have to compensate them for
[49:47] giving up water rights.
[49:49] It's going to be contentious.
[49:52] >> The competition for water could get even
[49:54] more contentious if coal-to-liquids
[49:56] technology, which converts coal to
[49:58] diesel fuel, takes off. Montana has 24%
[50:02] of the nation's coal reserves, and
[50:04] Governor Schweitzer has been a proponent
[50:06] of coal-to-liquids, emphasizing the
[50:08] economic benefits and downplaying the
[50:10] fact that it is a water-intensive
[50:12] process.
[50:13] >> We've announced a coal-to-liquid plant
[50:15] that will be built on the Crow
[50:16] reservation. That single plant that will
[50:18] employ 2,000 people will use about as
[50:21] much water as a project that has a
[50:24] couple of thousand acres of alfalfa,
[50:26] which would employ three or four people.
[50:28] >> Governor Schweitzer has allied himself
[50:30] with other Western governors, signing
[50:32] the Western Climate Initiative.
[50:34] >> Solve it, and we help free America from
[50:37] its addiction to foreign oil.
[50:39] >> It calls for a 15% reduction in
[50:41] greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and an
[50:44] increased use of alternative energy.
[50:47] >> Bottom line, coal has a CO2 problem. And
[50:51] until we recognize and we begin
[50:54] mitigating that CO2 problem, coal could
[50:56] be the energy of the past.
[50:58] >> Montana is also looking to capitalize on
[51:00] its abundant renewable energy sources,
[51:02] none larger than wind. The strong,
[51:05] steady winds here have the potential to
[51:07] meet the electricity needs of these 19
[51:10] states. So, Montana is hoping for energy
[51:13] independence and economic growth, but
[51:16] not without legislative hiccups.
[51:19] >> Change is difficult for people.
[51:20] Fundamentally, change scares people.
[51:23] >> Still, Montanans like Jenny West and
[51:25] Craig Matthews remain optimistic.
[51:28] >> I hope that I can tell my grandkids
[51:30] someday that, you know, this is
[51:32] this is what it's like. It has been this
[51:33] way forever.
[51:36] Oh, for there he is. Yes.
[51:38] You know, this is my life. This is my
[51:39] passion, and uh
[51:41] I want to be outside as much as I can,
[51:43] and my business is counting on it.
[51:46] >> If we lose trout fishing,
[51:48] we lose the headwaters of such great
[51:50] rivers as the Missouri and the
[51:51] Yellowstone. And we lose those very wild
[51:54] places that trout inhabit. And it's such
[51:57] a rich tradition, wild trout in wild
[51:59] places.
[52:01] >> People from Montana call their state the
[52:03] last best place, and they cherish their
[52:06] big sky and their big trout. But they
[52:08] also recognize that the climate is
[52:11] changing, and so they're pursuing ways
[52:13] to adapt and to reduce. Some Montanans
[52:16] even say they're setting an example for
[52:18] other states to follow.
[52:23] >> There's more online about climate
[52:24] change, including projections for
[52:26] Montana up to the year 2100. Visit us at
[52:30] pbs.org, where you can find a link on
[52:33] our website to climatesentra.
[52:43] Finally tonight, a tribute to author
[52:44] Studs Terkel, who among many other
[52:46] things, did essays here on the NewsHour
[52:48] early on. Ray Suarez interviewed
[52:51] interviewed him in 2003 about his book
[52:54] Hope Dies Last, and he asked him why he
[52:57] kept on writing.
[52:59] >> When someone says, "When are you going
[53:01] to retire?" I say, "When you say that,
[53:03] smile."
[53:04] No, I'm I check out while I'm working.
[53:06] For example, wouldn't it be dramatic if
[53:08] I would have checked out? I'm 91 years
[53:10] old, right? I've had a pretty good run
[53:12] of it. If I would have checked out right
[53:14] now, it'd be some pretty good headlines
[53:16] tomorrow. Pretty good. Make the show. So
[53:18] >> Well, definitely. You'd be the lead, I
[53:19] think.
[53:20] >> But the point is, I I have a I have an
[53:22] epitaph all set for me. Curiosity did
[53:25] not kill this cat.
[53:27] And basically, that's what it is. I'm
[53:29] curious. Do I have diminished hopes to
[53:32] some extent? Yes, I do. My hopes
[53:34] diminish, many say. But
[53:36] I'm quoting an old English journalist
[53:39] friend of mine, Jimmy Cameron, who said,
[53:41] "My hopes have diminished, but my
[53:43] curiosity remains."
[53:46] >> Another of Terkel's books will be
[53:48] released next month. He died today at
[53:50] age 96.
[53:59] And again, the other major developments
[54:01] of the day, stocks finished on a high
[54:02] note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
[54:05] gained 144 points, but it still recorded
[54:08] its worst month since 1987. And the
[54:11] presidential candidates headed into the
[54:13] final weekend of the campaign.
[54:15] Washington Week can be seen later this
[54:16] evening on most PBS stations. We'll see
[54:19] you online and again here Monday
[54:21] evening. Have a nice weekend. I'm Jim
[54:23] Lehrer. Thank you and good night.
[54:31] >> Major funding for The NewsHour with Jim
[54:33] Lehrer is provided by
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[55:06] >> With soaring energy prices and global
[55:09] climate change, there are good reasons
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[55:27] >> I'm Rick Dancer and this is my wife,
[55:28] Kathy.
[55:29] In my 23 years as a journalist, one
[55:31] thing I've heard over and again from
[55:33] voters is why can't campaigns focus on
[55:35] issues, not negative attacks?
[55:37] That's why we're committed to a clean
[55:39] race that focuses on making the
[55:41] Secretary of State's office
[55:42] non-partisan, supporting campaign
[55:43] finance reform, stopping the commingling
[55:46] of political funds, and ensuring that
[55:48] only legal citizens vote in Oregon.
[55:50] Throughout our travels in Oregon, this
[55:51] is what people have told us Oregon needs
[55:53] in a Secretary of State. I'm Rick
[55:55] Dancer, and I'm asking for your vote.
[55:57] >> Make your commute easier with K2's
[55:59] traffic tracker. Weekday mornings from
[56:01] 5:00 to 7:00 on K2 News, plus updates
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[56:06] K2's traffic tracker is brought you by
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[56:11] happy.
[56:12] >> Halloween is just around the corner, but
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[56:27] >> In tough times like these, do we want to
[56:30] give more power to Wall Street and big
[56:31] corporations? Measure 64 would do just
[56:34] that. Bill Sizemore put a loophole in 64
[56:37] that would increase the power of
[56:39] lobbyists and corporate special
[56:40] interests, while hurting the people we
[56:42] trust and depend on the most. Measure 64
[56:45] would silence the voices of our nurses,
[56:47] firefighters, and teachers, but let Wall
[56:49] Street banks and lobbyists off the hook.
[56:51] Say no to Bill Sizemore's deceptive
[56:53] corporate loophole. Vote no on Measure
[56:55] 64.
[56:57] >> K2 News, first at 4:00 weekday
[56:59] afternoons.