The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour (PBS) - 1992-03-06

Channel: malgent

Transcript

Language: English (original, YouTube automatic captions)

[0:05] Good evening. I'm Jim Lair in

[0:07] Washington.

[0:08] >> And I'm Charlene Hunter G in New York.

[0:10] After our summary of the news this

[0:12] Friday, business correspondent Paul

[0:14] Salman looks at the confusion over

[0:16] economic forecasting. We have a

[0:18] newsmaker interview with Democratic

[0:20] presidential candidate Bill Clinton,

[0:22] followed by our weekly political

[0:24] analysis from Gurgen and Shields. And

[0:26] finally, we have a report on the

[0:28] devastating ethnic fighting in the

[0:30] former Soviet Union.

[0:32] >> Funding for the McNeel NewsHour has been

[0:34] provided by PepsiCo.

[0:48] Pepsico.

[0:51] Part of helping the world live and

[0:53] communicate better is keeping it well

[0:54] informed. That's why funding for the

[0:56] NewsHour is also provided by AT&T

[1:00] and by the Corporation for Public

[1:02] Broadcasting and viewers like you.

[1:05] >> The nation's unemployment rate rose to

[1:07] 7.3% in February, the highest it's been

[1:11] in more than six years. The Labor

[1:13] Department said 9.2 million Americans

[1:15] were out of work. The rate had been 7.1%

[1:18] in January. A separate report showed

[1:21] employers added more than 164,000 jobs

[1:24] to their payrolls in February, the

[1:27] largest such increase in nearly two

[1:29] years. Some economists said that was

[1:31] evidence the recession was over. Paul

[1:33] Salman will have more on what these and

[1:35] other economic numbers mean right after

[1:37] this news summary. Charlane, most

[1:40] personal computer systems managed to

[1:42] escape the destructiveness of the

[1:44] Michelangelo computer virus today. The

[1:47] virus can destroy all data in IBM or

[1:50] compatible computers. Many companies and

[1:53] individuals took preventive measures

[1:55] like not turning on their computers or

[1:57] using antiviral software. The virus was

[2:01] designed to activate itself today, the

[2:04] birthday of Renaissance artist

[2:05] Michelangelo. There were scattered

[2:08] reports of cases worldwide. The most

[2:10] serious occurred in South Africa where

[2:13] 300 pharmacists lost their data.

[2:16] The former communist president of

[2:17] Azerbaijan stepped down today. He did so

[2:20] over criticism of his handling of

[2:22] fighting in the disputed region of

[2:24] Negarno Carabach. There was an overnight

[2:27] report that 27 people were killed in a

[2:30] new offensive by Azerbani troops against

[2:33] an Armenian village. We have a report on

[2:35] the conflict narrated by Vera Frankle of

[2:38] Worldwide Television News.

[2:40] Outside and inside Azabaijan's

[2:42] parliament, they demanded more Armenian

[2:45] blood.

[2:46] >> President Mutal Liof replied by

[2:48] resigning. He's opposed to escalating

[2:50] the war over Nagorno Carabach. Without

[2:53] Mutal Liboth restraining influence,

[2:55] Parliament is likely to create a

[2:56] national Azeri army and intensify the

[2:59] conflict.

[3:00] His opponents say he reacted too slowly,

[3:03] allowing Armenian militants to capture

[3:05] minority Azeri villages in the disputed

[3:07] enclave. Utibov told parliament he was

[3:10] resigning because he didn't want to shed

[3:12] more Azeri blood.

[3:15] Over a thousand people have died in four

[3:17] years of the bloodiest ethnic conflict

[3:19] in the former Soviet Union.

[3:23] Undeterred, his opponents say these

[3:25] fresh Azeri graves demand a forceful

[3:27] response. It's a savage war. Armenians

[3:31] beat up these two Azeris who allegedly

[3:33] killed two Armenians while trying to

[3:35] blow up a weapons depot. They were later

[3:38] exchanged for Armenian prisoners.

[3:41] >> The burials continue too. Armenians

[3:44] killed in the raid were laid to rest in

[3:46] a skyan. Their families also victims of

[3:49] this war. We'll have more on the

[3:51] conflict later in the program. More than

[3:54] a 100 Russian nuclear scientists have

[3:56] gone to work for the US government. A

[3:59] department of energy spokesman said they

[4:01] are doing research on using nuclear

[4:03] fusion to produce energy. All are

[4:06] working in Moscow under a one-year

[4:08] contract that pays the equivalent of $65

[4:11] a month. That's about seven times the

[4:13] average monthly wage in Russia. Five US

[4:17] senators went to Moscow today for talks

[4:19] on converting the former Soviet nuclear

[4:21] arsenal to civilian uses. The delegation

[4:24] led by Sam Nun of Georgia will meet with

[4:26] officials from Russia, Ukraine, and

[4:29] Bellarus.

[4:30] >> And that's it for the news summary

[4:31] tonight. Now it's on to the economic

[4:34] numbers game. Bill Clinton, Gergen and

[4:37] Shields, and an update on the war

[4:39] between the Armenians and the Azerbanis.

[4:50] First tonight, we focus on the economy.

[4:53] Today's unemployment figures have only

[4:55] added to the confusion of whether we are

[4:57] on our way out of the recession or still

[5:00] stuck at the bottom. So, how and when

[5:02] will we know for sure? Business

[5:04] correspondent Paul Salman of public

[5:06] station WGBH Boston explains.

[5:10] >> Next 41.

[5:12] >> Next.

[5:13] >> Monday morning at the unemployment

[5:15] office.

[5:15] >> The last day you worked was what? 8:31

[5:18] 90

[5:19] >> 8:31.

[5:22] >> These lines represent economic data in

[5:24] its rawest form.

[5:28] >> Friday morning at the Bureau of Labor

[5:30] Statistics. Another line, this time of

[5:33] reporters awaiting the grand total.

[5:35] >> Payrolls. You ready for this?

[5:38] >> In moments, the latest unemployment

[5:40] figures will flash across the country to

[5:42] financial markets and newsrooms.

[5:44] >> Spreading gloom or a glimmer of hope for

[5:46] our listless economy.

[5:49] As it turned out this morning, the

[5:50] results were emphatically mixed. The

[5:53] official unemployment figure rose to

[5:55] 7.3%,

[5:56] the highest in more than six years. But

[5:59] at the same time, the official payroll

[6:02] figure suggested just the opposite,

[6:04] reporting that the number of Americans

[6:06] working actually rose in February. Okay,

[6:09] those are the unemployment statistics.

[6:11] But did they really make the economic

[6:13] crystal ball any clearer? Consider this.

[6:16] The latest index of leading economic

[6:19] indicators was up. That's good. But the

[6:22] consumer confidence rating was way down.

[6:25] That's bad. which leaves us all

[6:27] wondering what's to come or how we'd

[6:29] even know a recovery if we began to see

[6:31] one. Now, professional economists have

[6:34] long since tossed aside old-fashioned

[6:37] forecasting technology in favor of a

[6:40] more high techch medium, but still for

[6:42] forecasters, these are exceedingly

[6:44] trying times. All right, it's time to

[6:47] consider the data that's come in from

[6:49] our customers and from government to uh

[6:51] >> we're at the weekly forecasting meeting

[6:53] at DRRi Mcgra Hill, a Massachusetts

[6:56] outfit that's paid by businesses,

[6:58] investors, and policy makers to look

[7:00] into the economic future.

[7:02] >> So, I think you're going to see auto

[7:03] sales drop back to around 6 million

[7:05] units. At DRRI, they depend on a classic

[7:08] computerized model of the economy with

[7:10] 800 separate equations into which they

[7:13] plug everything from auto sales to

[7:15] interest rates, widget production to the

[7:17] weather.

[7:18] >> And the last couple months of um winter,

[7:20] weak winter weather,

[7:23] which most of us consider good, have

[7:25] really hurt the oil producers and the

[7:26] oil market.

[7:28] >> There are two key consumer confidence

[7:30] numbers, and one of them has just

[7:32] arrived. It's a hell of a way to start

[7:34] the day. Okay, this morning the

[7:36] conference board data for February shows

[7:39] uh a decline of 46.3 from a revised 50.2

[7:43] in February. Disappointing number.

[7:47] >> Disappointing is an understatement

[7:49] considering this is the conference

[7:50] board's lowest confidence rating in 17

[7:52] years.

[7:54] >> Consumers feel lousy and they're not

[7:56] likely to feel any better if they

[7:57] continue to be besieged with bad news

[8:00] like the highly publicized layoffs at GM

[8:02] recently.

[8:03] >> It was very depressing. Everybody in

[8:05] there was really surprised because um

[8:07] all indications pointed that we would

[8:09] stay open.

[8:10] >> A forecaster like David Whis tries to

[8:12] factor the news into his formula.

[8:14] >> Economics is a confidence game. If

[8:17] people are scared, if they don't spend,

[8:19] the economy is damaged. It's amazing.

[8:22] People will put off things that you

[8:23] wouldn't think they'd want to put off.

[8:26] Um even sort of things you would think

[8:27] of as necessities. One thing that's

[8:29] interesting in this recession, it's the

[8:31] first extended recession when actual

[8:33] food sales have dropped. They're usually

[8:36] pretty much recession proof. This time

[8:37] around, people are actually even eating

[8:39] less.

[8:41] >> In fact, they were eating at the nearby

[8:43] Burlington Mall, only they were eating

[8:46] cheaper.

[8:46] >> It looks

[8:49] looks pretty busy here, but uh this is

[8:50] people eating $1.99 hamburgers.

[8:53] >> Whis comes here from time to time to

[8:54] check out the people behind the numbers.

[8:56] There are a lot of people right out here

[8:58] now and a lot of people in there.

[9:00] >> Yeah. Well, this is the food court

[9:02] though. Uh, buying hamburgers is not

[9:04] what counts for moving the economy. We

[9:06] want to know what's happening at stores

[9:07] like Phileen and Jordan Marsh where

[9:09] they're buying bigger, more expensive

[9:11] items.

[9:11] >> You actually come to this place to find

[9:14] evidence for uh your forecast.

[9:17] >> Yeah, I actually do. I come to the

[9:18] Burlington Mall especially like at

[9:20] Christmas time just to see how many

[9:21] people are shopping. Is there a recovery

[9:23] in consumer spending or are the stores

[9:26] empty?

[9:26] >> The store is empty.

[9:27] >> The store is empty.

[9:29] >> No question.

[9:31] >> A handful of stores, just one mall, not

[9:34] what you'd call a statistically

[9:35] significant sample. In fact, the most

[9:38] recent government report was that retail

[9:40] sales rose in January, which just goes

[9:42] to show why the journalist's approach to

[9:44] reality, what you might call anecdata,

[9:47] may be the flimsiest form of

[9:48] forecasting.

[9:55] Okay, here's another forecasting

[9:56] approach. This is the trading pit at New

[9:59] York's commodities exchange. In the eyes

[10:01] of some forecasters, it's a gold mine of

[10:03] prognostication.

[10:05] In fact, it is a gold mine of sorts

[10:07] since gold contracts are actually traded

[10:09] here. We asked Tim Murphy to explain

[10:11] what goes on

[10:12] >> right now. Unfortunately, you can't hear

[10:15] him and we don't have time to explain

[10:16] the strategy. But the point is that to

[10:19] some forecasters, gold tells you an

[10:21] awful lot about the economic future and

[10:24] helps keep things simple. We don't try

[10:26] to collect as many factors as we can. We

[10:29] try to collect as few as we can. We try

[10:31] to filter out as many factors as

[10:33] possible that don't seem to be very

[10:34] important. We know that every one has

[10:37] some influence, but we want to focus on

[10:39] the ones that have the most. here

[10:42] instead of an elaborate computer model

[10:44] they put their faith in markets two

[10:46] above all

[10:47] >> 8 and 3/4 August 93 and 95 March

[10:51] >> first there's the shortterm government

[10:53] bond market where Uncle Sam's short-term

[10:55] IUS are traded so-called treasury bills

[10:58] and Treasury notes when Ranson sees low

[11:01] interest rates here he takes it to mean

[11:03] that money is cheap businesses are about

[11:06] to start borrowing the economy is about

[11:08] to recover then there's the gold market.

[11:11] The lower the gold price they figure,

[11:13] the lower inflation, an omen that the

[11:16] economy is primed for recovery. And the

[11:18] gold price here is assumed to be

[11:20] reliable. The best collective guess of a

[11:23] lot of highly motivated people who are

[11:25] willing to put their money where their

[11:27] mouths are.

[11:30] >> Dave Ranson is a guy who swears by

[11:32] markets. The day we talked to him, he

[11:34] was checking the latest odds on a

[11:35] somewhat unusual market in London. When

[11:38] we came in, you were on the phone to the

[11:39] Wall Street Journal. What were you

[11:41] telling the guy?

[11:42] >> Yeah, I was just telling that there was

[11:43] there was a change in the betting odds

[11:45] and uh we're watching markets to gauge

[11:48] the presidential election.

[11:50] Unfortunately, it seems to be illegal to

[11:52] place bets on the general election here,

[11:54] believe it or not. And for those of you

[11:56] who believe in markets as the ultimate

[11:58] crystal ball, the latest odds in London

[12:01] are for Bush, Clinton, Sus, Brown,

[12:06] Buchanan, Harkin. But couldn't this

[12:09] betting just reflect irrational

[12:10] speculation? And couldn't that be true

[12:13] for the markets Ransom relies on for his

[12:15] economic predictions as well?

[12:17] >> Well, I don't know if it's irrational.

[12:18] We can't tell the difference between

[12:19] rational and irrational movements in

[12:21] prices, but we feel that the market is

[12:24] the probably the the most objective

[12:27] place to get a reading.

[12:28] >> Okay. Thus far, we have two conflicting

[12:31] approaches to economic prediction. The

[12:33] simple market method, the complex

[12:35] mathematical model, and it turns out we

[12:38] have two different economic predictions.

[12:41] DRRi's model sees continuing weakness.

[12:44] Ransen and company are betting on a

[12:46] robust recovery. Well, there's an old

[12:48] joke in forecasting, which is I can

[12:50] predict perfectly what's going to happen

[12:53] as long as you don't make me tell you

[12:55] when. And I can predict perfectly when

[12:57] something's going to happen as long as I

[12:59] can be pretty fuzzy about what it is.

[13:02] The difficulty is trying to forecast

[13:04] people. We're very complicated and

[13:07] that's not going to change.

[13:08] >> If you're talking about predicting human

[13:10] behavior, why not ask a psychologist?

[13:13] >> So, we did. The nice thing about being a

[13:15] psychologist is you don't have to take

[13:16] the economic theory quite so seriously

[13:18] and you can look at what all the

[13:19] economists are doing and look to see

[13:22] across what tends to work best.

[13:24] >> To the psychologist, what foils the

[13:26] forecasts of computer models like DRI is

[13:29] the fickleness of their data. All those

[13:32] folks at places like the local mall

[13:34] going about their individual business.

[13:38] And the markets to which David Ranson is

[13:40] so devoted are also made up of impulsive

[13:42] human beings who actually pride

[13:44] themselves on their unpredictability.

[13:47] The problem is that just when you

[13:49] finally think you've got people figured

[13:51] out, they change. Today's lack of

[13:54] consumer confidence, for example, that

[13:56] keeps dragging down the economy. Experts

[13:59] say that this recession, at least in

[14:01] terms of the traditional numbers like

[14:02] unemployment and industrial output, is

[14:05] mild. So then why do a disproportionate

[14:08] number of us feel so bad?

[14:10] >> People don't compare themselves to an

[14:12] absolute standard. They compare

[14:14] themselves to where they think they

[14:15] ought to be. And one of the things that

[14:17] they think they ought to be is improving

[14:20] every single year and that's slowed down

[14:22] in the United States. They compare

[14:25] themselves to the very rich and there's

[14:27] more very rich and they receive a lot of

[14:28] publicity. So if you now know that your

[14:31] the head of your corporation makes a

[14:34] million times as much as you do, I'm

[14:36] exaggerating there. It's very

[14:38] dispiriting. And these income

[14:39] disparities over the last few years have

[14:41] grown tremendously. And I think that's

[14:43] very hard on the psyche of the average

[14:45] person. Now all these forecasting

[14:48] systems are based on history, patterns

[14:51] of economic behavior that have held true

[14:53] in the past. But if Americans have begun

[14:55] to look at their future prospects in a

[14:57] new and more pessimistic light, then all

[15:00] bets are off. In any case, when it comes

[15:02] to economic forecasting, we're

[15:05] traditionalists and leave the final word

[15:07] to John Kenneth Greg, who said long ago

[15:10] that there are only two kinds of

[15:11] economists.

[15:13] Those who don't know the economic future

[15:16] and those who don't know they don't

[15:17] know.

[15:26] Now to a newsmaker interview with Bill

[15:29] Clinton, the governor of Arkansas and a

[15:31] leading candidate for the 1992

[15:33] Democratic presidential nomination. I

[15:36] spoke with him earlier this evening from

[15:38] Tampa, Florida.

[15:40] Governor Clinton, welcome.

[15:41] >> Thank you. Mario Cuomo said today in the

[15:45] New York Daily News, quote, "Bill

[15:47] Clinton will be the nominee in two

[15:49] weeks." said, quote, "Is he right about

[15:51] that?"

[15:52] >> Well, I hope he's right, but frankly,

[15:54] it's I think it's mathematically

[15:55] impossible that I could be the nominee

[15:57] in two weeks. I hope we have a good day

[15:59] on Tuesday on Super Tuesday, a good day

[16:02] Saturday in South Carolina, and then I

[16:03] hope that in Illinois and Michigan, I

[16:06] can do well, but this race is going to

[16:08] go on a while longer. You've got the big

[16:10] states, Pennsylvania, Ohio coming up,

[16:12] New Jersey, California, Governor Cuomo's

[16:14] own New York. So, there are lots of

[16:15] delegates out there still to be fought

[16:17] over. I think we're moving in the right

[16:19] direction. And I think in the last week

[16:21] or so, my message is finally beginning

[16:23] to be heard. I think that people are

[16:24] finally realizing that the choice is not

[16:26] yet another Democratic choice between a

[16:28] liberal and a conservative, but a choice

[16:30] between the 80s and the 90s, between

[16:32] what works and what doesn't. And uh if I

[16:34] can get that message across, I think

[16:36] we'll be okay.

[16:37] >> You mean what Paul Sunis is offering is

[16:40] uh politics of the 80s and you're

[16:42] offering the politics of the 90s?

[16:44] >> I believe so. I think that he basically

[16:46] represents, as he candidly says, a very

[16:49] socially liberal agenda, that is the

[16:51] liberal democratic agenda of the 80s

[16:52] socially and a more pro business

[16:55] position economically. I've always

[16:58] thought of myself as pro businesses and

[17:00] as you know, I've often been criticized

[17:02] in the campaign for not being enough of

[17:05] a Democrat, for being too broke

[17:06] business, but I am opposed to giving

[17:08] anybody something for nothing. We tried

[17:11] across the board capital gains cuts in

[17:12] the 80s. It helped the stock market, but

[17:15] even when the capital gains was

[17:17] repealed, the stock market continued to

[17:18] go up. But manufacturing went down,

[17:21] agriculture went down, energy went down,

[17:23] small business went down, working wages

[17:26] went down. What we need is a

[17:27] people-based economics designed to

[17:29] produce high skills, the ability to

[17:32] change, and the ability to give targeted

[17:35] investments for people who will invest

[17:36] in this country. So, I think we're both

[17:39] pro business. I think the question is

[17:41] whose program is more relevant to the

[17:43] 90s and the way the world works. I

[17:45] believe mine is.

[17:46] >> Governor, some would suggest that what

[17:48] you just outlined is the same position

[17:50] that Democratic nominees for president

[17:52] have had for the last three or four

[17:54] elections, all of whom have lost. How do

[17:56] you

[17:57] >> That's not at all true. That's not at

[17:59] all true. None of those Democratic

[18:01] nominees had the image of being pro

[18:03] business. They I look at the investment

[18:06] incentives I've outlined. I'm for an

[18:07] investment tax credit. I'm for the

[18:09] venture capital gains, the new business

[18:11] tax credit. I'm for changes in the 86

[18:14] tax law to get people back into

[18:15] commercial and housing. Uh I'm I'm for

[18:18] all kinds of incentives that are

[18:20] targeted. The business community in my

[18:22] state has supported me overwhelmingly.

[18:24] People who voted Republican and

[18:25] presidential elections have voted for me

[18:27] because we created manufacturing jobs.

[18:30] We've outdistanced all the states around

[18:31] us in generating jobs. But I'm not

[18:34] forgiving anybody something for nothing.

[18:35] That let me just say that that's the

[18:36] other big difference between me and

[18:38] Senator Sonis. Whether you're talking

[18:39] about people on welfare or people

[18:41] running corporations, I say create

[18:43] opportunity and impose responsibility.

[18:45] You got to do both.

[18:47] >> In other words, you're both pro

[18:48] business. He's just more pro business

[18:50] than you are.

[18:51] >> No, my ideas are better. He's got the

[18:53] same ideas we tried in the 80s. It

[18:54] didn't work. my idea of targeted

[18:57] incentives and spending much much more

[19:00] educating and training the workforce

[19:02] doing it for a lifetime and then

[19:04] focusing on things like how do you

[19:06] convert from a defense to a domestic

[19:07] economy. What what are the new

[19:09] technologies of the future that we

[19:10] should target and invest in? Those are

[19:13] the things that other countries are

[19:14] doing that work. You can't just say

[19:16] let's lower the cost of capital and get

[19:19] out of the way and growth will occur and

[19:21] then we'll worry about fairness later.

[19:23] We did try that in the 80s and as was

[19:25] reported this week, the top 1% of our

[19:28] country got 60% of the economic gains.

[19:30] The bottom 60% fell behind. We don't

[19:33] need to do that again. It doesn't work.

[19:34] You have to have an economic policy that

[19:36] is that squares with the global

[19:39] realities. Look at the countries that

[19:41] are succeeding. Meet the competition.

[19:43] Japan does more with people. Germany

[19:45] does more with people. They are better

[19:47] adjusted for change. Those are the

[19:49] things we should be focusing on. Are you

[19:51] suggesting then that if Paul Sanis was

[19:54] the Democratic nominee, it would just be

[19:56] a continuation of Bush Reagan? No, he's

[19:59] much more liberal on the social agenda

[20:01] and he has some ideas that we agree with

[20:04] uh he and I about developing small

[20:06] business. But I'm suggesting to you that

[20:09] he has focused far too much on the

[20:11] importance of lowering the capital gains

[20:13] for stock traded on the stock exchanges

[20:15] and far too little on the importance of

[20:18] developing our people on education and

[20:20] training. He also talks about

[20:23] opportunity and never talks about

[20:24] responsibility for anybody but the poor

[20:27] middle class folks who've been murdered

[20:28] in the 80s. That is, I would give more

[20:30] tax incentives to business for investing

[20:32] in our country. But I don't see why we

[20:34] should be the only major country that

[20:36] will give tax incentives for a company

[20:37] to shut a plant down here and open it

[20:39] overseas. The Germans don't do that. I

[20:41] think we ought to meet the competition.

[20:43] So I think that while he gives more

[20:45] across the board incentives than I do,

[20:48] mine are more targeted and I expect

[20:50] responsibility in return for

[20:52] opportunity.

[20:53] >> Sus's strength at this point seems to be

[20:56] that he comes across as a real person, a

[20:58] man who who uh who talks straight. He's

[21:00] not a packaged candidate and all of

[21:02] that. Do you see those kinds of comments

[21:04] about him as an attack on you?

[21:07] >> Well, I think that he's tried to

[21:09] position himself in that way, but you

[21:11] know, it's interesting. We just did

[21:13] several different debates and when we

[21:15] were in New England, he had an energy

[21:17] position that modified itself when he

[21:19] got to Colorado because they were more

[21:21] anti-uclear power and then when we got

[21:23] to Texas, his energy position recreated

[21:25] itself again in the form of being pro-

[21:27] natural gas. So, he's changed a lot of

[21:29] his positions and modified them in this

[21:31] election in a very clever way. I don't

[21:34] want to criticize that. people should be

[21:36] free to change and grow. But I think for

[21:38] him to say that uh he's the only truth

[21:40] teller in this race and to imply that my

[21:42] positions are based on polls and then to

[21:44] turn around and run an ad saying that

[21:46] I'm trying to increase the deficit with

[21:47] a middle class tax cut which he knows is

[21:49] not true sort of puts him in the heavy

[21:51] duty politician category. I like Senator

[21:54] Sonis. I admire him in many ways. But

[21:57] he's going to have to answer for his

[21:58] record, his positions, and his straddles

[22:01] now just like the rest of us do. How do

[22:03] you uh how do you combat this impression

[22:05] that you're compared to him at least

[22:07] you're a you're a slick politician who's

[22:10] been running for president since you

[22:11] were a teenager and all of that?

[22:13] >> Well, I would answer that in two ways.

[22:16] Number one, it was Senator Songis, not

[22:17] me, who was asked in 1981, 11 years ago

[22:21] when he started thinking about running

[22:22] for president. And he said, "When did I

[22:24] not think about running for president?"

[22:26] This is a very wellthoughtout plan by a

[22:28] man who's planned to do this for a very

[22:30] long time. Now, I don't criticize that.

[22:33] I think public service is honorable, but

[22:35] I think that we have to look at what the

[22:36] facts are based on what Senator Sus has

[22:38] said. Second thing I would say is, look,

[22:41] I come from one of the poorest states in

[22:42] the country. I went home. I'm a fifth

[22:44] generation Aran. I've given 11 years of

[22:47] my life to making the tough decisions

[22:49] that other people talk about. I had to

[22:52] balance budgets. I had to get more money

[22:54] for education. I had to try to create

[22:56] jobs with no help from Washington. Look

[22:58] at my record. I'm a hands-on, sleeves

[23:01] rolled up practical public servant who's

[23:04] actually done things to try to help

[23:05] children get preschool opportunities,

[23:08] generate manufacturing jobs, solve

[23:09] social problems that others are talking

[23:11] about. My record is not that of a slick

[23:14] politician. It's that of somebody who's

[23:16] actually done things. That's why the

[23:18] Republican and the Democratic governor

[23:19] said they thought I was the most

[23:21] effective governor. I don't think they

[23:22] would have been in the mood to fall for

[23:24] Slick Willie. I think it's just all

[23:27] slogans and rhetoric. People look at my

[23:29] record, the fact that I haven't had a

[23:31] very easy life either, and I've been

[23:33] pretty candid with the American people

[23:34] about that, and that I've got the most

[23:36] modern, specific, progressive plan for

[23:39] the future of this country. I think I'll

[23:41] be okay.

[23:42] >> It strikes me, Governor, that you can

[23:44] smell it now. You can smell the

[23:45] nomination. You feel it out there now.

[23:47] You're pretty close.

[23:48] >> Oh, I wouldn't say that. This is going

[23:50] to be a long, long nomination. What I

[23:52] can smell and feel again is that people

[23:54] are beginning to open their ears and

[23:55] their eyes and their hearts to what I'm

[23:58] trying to say and to what I've done and

[24:00] to my concern for them and our common

[24:02] future. That's what happened in Georgia.

[24:04] I finally got a fair hearing. And when

[24:06] the ideas were measured, the records

[24:08] were measured, the emphasis was

[24:10] measured, a very sophisticated, even

[24:13] though a southern state, the state with

[24:14] the largest number of foreign companies

[24:16] headquartered of any state in America,

[24:18] 57% of them voted for me. If I can get

[24:20] that kind of hearing everywhere, I

[24:22] believe I'll be nominated.

[24:24] >> Bob Kerry before he left the race said

[24:27] though that if you are the nominee, the

[24:29] Republicans and George Bush will peel

[24:31] you apart like a soft peanut over the

[24:34] draft issue and other personal character

[24:36] things. Is he wrong about that?

[24:38] >> You bet he is. People have been saying

[24:40] that about me ever since I got in

[24:42] politics. I've been in 17 elections in

[24:44] 17 years. Uh almost all of them have

[24:47] been brutal and rough. I've always had

[24:49] opponents who thought the best way to be

[24:51] elected was to destroy their opponent

[24:53] and they've always underestimated my

[24:55] ability to fight back. I think the

[24:57] American people have seen that I can

[24:59] take a hit, that I don't quit, and that

[25:02] if anything, that's one thing you want

[25:04] in a president, not a perfect person,

[25:06] someone who admits his mistakes, tries

[25:08] to learn from them, and keeps coming

[25:10] back. I think this country needs to do

[25:12] that. We need to learn from our mistakes

[25:14] and start coming back again. I'm plenty

[25:16] tough enough to handle this election in

[25:18] the fall and by far the most experienced

[25:20] politician in the field when it comes to

[25:22] suffering the slings and arrows of the

[25:24] kind of hate dominated Republican

[25:26] politics that have divided this country

[25:28] for too long.

[25:29] >> President Bush told David Frost in an

[25:31] interview recently he would do whatever

[25:33] it took to get reelected. That doesn't

[25:34] scare you?

[25:36] >> No, I'm not scared. I know that he'll do

[25:38] whatever it takes to get reelected.

[25:40] President Bush also said in New

[25:41] Hampshire that he thought the draft and

[25:43] the personal attacks on me were unfair.

[25:45] We'll see uh whether they honor that as

[25:47] time goes on. I trust the American

[25:50] people. I trust them to look into my

[25:51] eyes and to look into my heart to take

[25:53] the measure of me and anyone else

[25:55] running. And I care about the people of

[25:58] this country. I can take a few licks in

[26:00] this election because they're nothing

[26:01] compared to the licks the American

[26:02] people are taking day in and day out

[26:04] because people are not being permitted

[26:06] to live up to their god-given potential

[26:08] because we're undereducated,

[26:09] underorganized, underled. We're refusing

[26:12] to do what it takes to compete and win

[26:13] in the 90s. That's what I want to run

[26:15] on.

[26:15] >> How important is it to is it to you to

[26:17] be president of the United States

[26:19] personally?

[26:21] >> Well, personally, I was having the most

[26:23] fun in my life before I got in this race

[26:26] with my family, with my job, with my

[26:28] friends. I got into this race because I

[26:31] couldn't stand to see what was happening

[26:32] to the country. All the wasted

[26:34] potential, the promise that my daughter

[26:36] might grow up into a world to be the

[26:38] first American uh to do worse than their

[26:41] parents. I just didn't want to see that

[26:43] happen. So, it's important to me to win

[26:45] this election because of what I want to

[26:46] do, not because of how I want to live.

[26:49] If I had my choice of lifestyle, it

[26:51] would be a different one. I want to

[26:52] change this country and change the

[26:54] future for all these children. I want to

[26:56] restore the middle class. And mostly, I

[26:58] want to restore the leadership of

[26:59] America. And we need a relevant, modern,

[27:03] common sense economic policy. And some

[27:06] president who's willing to say, "I'm

[27:07] tired of putting the blame on everybody

[27:09] else. I'm going to roll up my sleeves

[27:10] and take responsibility for the future."

[27:12] And you believe you could defeat George

[27:13] Bush?

[27:14] >> I sure do. If you look at my races at

[27:16] home, I've always had strong opposition.

[27:19] In the last election, I had a very

[27:21] powerful Republican opponent. We carried

[27:23] every major Republican county in my

[27:24] state because I stood for economic

[27:26] growth and opportunity and education and

[27:30] accountability. Accountability is the

[27:32] key. Not bigger bureaucracy in

[27:34] government, but more effective

[27:35] government. I think that's what the

[27:37] American people want.

[27:38] >> Finally, just a simple political

[27:40] question. And what are your expectations

[27:41] for Tuesday, specifically Super Tuesday?

[27:44] >> I think we'll do well and I've worked

[27:46] hard so that we could do well, but I

[27:49] haven't been able to campaign in every

[27:50] state that is voting on Super Tuesday. I

[27:52] wish I could have. And I've never I'm

[27:54] superstitious. Even at home in Arkansas,

[27:56] I've never once predicted the percentage

[27:58] outcome. I can tell you this, I was

[28:00] shocked by the percentage we got in

[28:01] Georgia. I never dreamed we'd get 57%.

[28:04] We closed half the gap in Maryland in 10

[28:06] days. We got more votes than Senator

[28:08] Songs in in Colorado. and we were 10 or

[28:10] 12 points behind there a week before the

[28:12] election. I think the message is coming

[28:15] out to the voters and if it does, I

[28:16] think we'll do well.

[28:17] >> All right, Governor. Thank you very

[28:18] much.

[28:19] >> Thank you.

[28:29] >> Next, our regular Friday look at the

[28:31] political events of the week. We get

[28:33] that from Gergen and Shields. That's

[28:35] David Gurgen, editor at large at US News

[28:37] and World Report and syndicated

[28:39] columnist Mark Shields. Mark, you and

[28:42] David just heard uh the interview Jim

[28:44] did with Bill Clinton. Has Clinton

[28:45] shifted into another gear? Mark,

[28:47] >> well, he certainly sounded confident. He

[28:50] is not nearly the defensive candidate we

[28:53] saw earlier in February. Charlene, I I

[28:57] think it's interesting. Bill Clinton has

[29:00] emerged as the front runner in the

[29:01] Democratic race at a time when his own

[29:04] personal ratings among American voters

[29:06] have plummeted. Uh in January, his

[29:08] favorable unfavorable rating was 28

[29:10] favorable and 11 unfavorable. And that

[29:12] went to 35 favorable to 44 unfavorable

[29:15] in March in the Gallup poll. Uh so he's

[29:18] he's emerging as the front runner at a

[29:20] time when he's picking up an awful lot

[29:21] of baggage.

[29:22] >> Uh do you think he smells victory,

[29:24] David?

[29:25] >> He does. He shifted into high gear. I

[29:27] think Charlene he he's moved into the

[29:29] south where he's much more comfortable

[29:31] as a person. He's around a lot of voters

[29:33] who are very adoring and his message is

[29:36] getting through now for the first time.

[29:38] I think he's absolutely right about

[29:39] that. the the people around him are

[29:41] highly confident they're going to sweep

[29:42] here on South Carolina tomorrow to go on

[29:45] in Super Tuesday. They'll win all the

[29:46] southern states with the possible

[29:47] exception of Florida, which is very

[29:49] hotly contested by Senator Sis and

[29:51] they're frankly they're quite confident

[29:53] about Illinois and Michigan that the

[29:55] Clinton forces have always looked upon

[29:57] Illinois as being a pivotal state in

[29:59] this race and they've been prepared for

[30:01] it for a long time. As you know, he went

[30:03] and found a campaign manager from the

[30:04] daily organization in in Chicago. He has

[30:07] other people in his campaign from

[30:09] Illinois. This is a campaign now that

[30:11] does smell victory. They think they're

[30:12] closing in on it.

[30:14] >> So that the he doesn't have to win. I

[30:17] mean, is Super Tuesday going to be

[30:18] definitive for him?

[30:20] >> Not at all. But he the reason they're

[30:22] pointing to the Georgia race as well as

[30:24] the Colorado race is that they think

[30:26] it's a springboard into tomorrow in

[30:28] South Carolina that that in turn a big

[30:30] victory in South Carolina will give him

[30:32] big big victories in places like Texas

[30:35] uh and his own home in ar and Louisiana

[30:38] uh and Oklahoma where whereas is not on

[30:40] the ballot and and given those big

[30:43] victories if they get a good night on

[30:44] the press and the media on Tuesday night

[30:46] that in turn they hope will influence

[30:48] the voters in Illinois and Michigan to

[30:50] believe that He's almost the presumptive

[30:51] nominee of the party.

[30:53] >> Mark, you'd mentioned the baggage and

[30:54] Clinton says he's demonstrated he can

[30:56] take a hit and get back up and keep

[30:58] fighting. Are all the hits behind him

[31:00] now?

[31:01] >> No, he he certainly has demonstrated

[31:02] that he took some big hits. He did get

[31:04] back up. Uh but they're not behind him.

[31:07] They're they're basically and D David

[31:10] described a scenario uh where his

[31:12] campaign after next Tuesday if it works

[31:14] out the way David uh thinks it will or

[31:17] has described it and I think most people

[31:18] would agree with him

[31:19] >> and you do too.

[31:20] >> Well, I do I I think I think Florida

[31:22] could be interesting but I I think

[31:23] beyond that there's no question in South

[31:25] Carolina South Carolina Paul Sonis'

[31:28] constituency uh the upper educated and

[31:31] the money people have all become

[31:32] Republicans by now that none of them

[31:34] have stayed in the Democratic party. Uh

[31:36] so uh as as far as uh his winning uh

[31:39] next Tuesday and winning big Charlene,

[31:42] uh I think his chances are good, but

[31:43] those those issues don't go away.

[31:44] They're a little bit like heroin in the

[31:46] in the bloodstream. I mean, they just

[31:47] they remain there that whether they'll

[31:49] be latent activated later. I mean, this

[31:52] is a this is a candidate now where

[31:53] plurality of voters believe according to

[31:56] Newsweek poll that he is he's not

[31:57] honest. He's not personally honest. Now,

[31:59] I mean, that's that's a problem. Now,

[32:01] you know, how do you demonstrate how do

[32:03] you demonstrate there? There's a couple

[32:04] of knocks that are put on a politician

[32:05] that are very tough to shake. One is

[32:07] that he's light, that he isn't too heavy

[32:09] between the ears. And two is that he's

[32:11] that his fingers in the in the in the

[32:13] till. Neither of those is knocked about

[32:15] Bill Clinton in any way. The third one

[32:17] is questions about honesty. And and

[32:18] that's that's something that Bill

[32:20] Clinton will have to deal with, and he

[32:23] knows damn well that the Republicans are

[32:24] going to be coming at him hammering

[32:26] tongs in the fall. Dave, David, you

[32:28] heard you heard uh Clinton say that he

[32:30] didn't think or that he heard Bush say

[32:32] he wasn't going to come after him on

[32:35] those issues that have already been. But

[32:36] do you think they'll what was the

[32:38] phrase? Peel him up like a boiled peanut

[32:40] or something.

[32:41] >> A soft peanut. The um I I think Mark is

[32:44] absolutely right. The the truth is in

[32:46] these southern primaries uh that that

[32:49] Paul Sonis has almost no presence in

[32:51] many of these states. These issues are

[32:52] not being raised front and center. Bill

[32:54] Clinton did very very well in Georgia in

[32:56] a state where he was not being

[32:58] challenged on these issues about the

[32:59] draft or the questions of infidelity.

[33:01] When when we get and and Paul Sunis is a

[33:03] kind of candidate who by his very nature

[33:05] hangs back. I mean, he'll get take an

[33:07] occasional jab or two, but he's running

[33:08] an entirely different kind of campaign.

[33:10] But do you think

[33:10] >> we know from the past and I think the

[33:12] record is abundantly clear that in a

[33:15] fall campaign against the Republicans,

[33:17] it may not be George Bush personally,

[33:19] but we can all bet and know for an

[33:21] absolute certainty that others in his

[33:24] campaign are salivating about the

[33:26] prospect. I mean, I've had Republican

[33:28] strategist come to me and say, "You have

[33:29] no idea how we're going to go after him

[33:30] with the Southern Baptist. We're going

[33:31] to take him apart on some of these

[33:33] questions." And I think, yes, of course

[33:35] they he knows it's coming. He did

[33:37] survive very well out of New Hampshire.

[33:38] He has proved to be a resilient

[33:39] candidate. Give him credit for that, but

[33:41] more is coming.

[33:43] >> What about Zongas? He said Zongas has

[33:45] proved to be a really heavy duty

[33:46] politician in the last few days. I mean,

[33:48] what's what's your his your assessment

[33:50] of that and your assessment of Zongas at

[33:52] this point?

[33:53] >> You I'm sorry, you asking me? Yeah. The

[33:55] u my assessment Paul Zongas is that that

[33:57] that he is a he's a much better

[33:59] politician than I think Bill Clinton

[34:01] just described. And indeed, I think if

[34:02] if Paul Sangus was were on the air with

[34:04] Bill Clinton, he'd say, "You're

[34:05] misdcribing my program." uh you know and

[34:07] so you know he'll have his opportunity

[34:09] his his day in various debates and that

[34:10] sort of thing to make that argument but

[34:13] Paul Sus came from nowhere I mean here

[34:14] here as he said this week you know funny

[34:17] thing happened on the way to on the way

[34:18] to oblivion the message began to take

[34:21] hold his message is taking hold I think

[34:23] there are many people around the country

[34:25] many as Mark identifies are people who

[34:27] are upper income better educated but

[34:28] he's he's reaching out to some others so

[34:30] Paul is has done better than expected

[34:32] all the way along here in the campaign

[34:34] he's not going to go easily easily.

[34:37] There's still a lot of drama in this

[34:38] race.

[34:38] >> Mark, you mentioned Florida a couple of

[34:40] times. Is and and that's where Sunus is

[34:43] really uh isn't he trying to to contest

[34:47] very hard there against Clinton? And

[34:49] >> I I think he'd like to come out of

[34:50] Florida at least with a split decision,

[34:52] Charlene. I mean, so that it isn't just

[34:54] a sweep that night. Four out of five

[34:56] people in Florida, voters in Florida,

[34:58] were born someplace else. Uh it's the

[35:00] one place of all the states on Super

[35:02] Tuesday where Bill Clinton's Arkansas

[35:04] accent doesn't help. uh doesn't it is

[35:07] not an immediate identifying bridge to

[35:09] the electorate. So I think that's where

[35:10] Songus also expects and we should give

[35:12] him credit for this or at least

[35:14] acknowledge it that he will win uh the

[35:16] other Super Tuesday states up north his

[35:18] native state of Massachusetts uh and and

[35:21] Rhode Island although although Clinton

[35:23] is trying a little bit of a flanking

[35:26] movement in Rhode Island.

[35:27] >> What about Brown after winning the

[35:29] Colorado primary? How viable is he? I

[35:31] think I think Jerry Brown is has the

[35:33] potential of being the real wild card in

[35:35] this campaign. I mean, it is I think

[35:36] it's rather revealing. We have five

[35:38] candidates left for president. Really,

[35:40] five active candidates with all respect

[35:41] to Senator Harkin. Uh, two Republicans,

[35:43] three Democrats. Four of the candidates

[35:45] are running against Washington. Uh, I

[35:47] mean, Bill Clinton is, yes, the favorite

[35:51] of the Washington establishment, but he

[35:52] is an outsider. He's from Arkansas. He's

[35:54] a governor of a state. Uh, certainly

[35:56] Paul Sis is the outsider, making the

[35:58] Democratic leadership in this town

[36:00] uncomfortable. Nobody makes him more

[36:01] uncomfortable than Jerry Brown. Jerry

[36:03] Brown is running against what people

[36:05] understand as a corrosively corrupt

[36:08] political financing system and he is

[36:10] being heard. His message is being

[36:11] heated.

[36:12] >> You see it that way, David? I mean, and

[36:13] can he pick up another state or so along

[36:16] the way?

[36:17] >> I think he can pick up some western

[36:18] states. The interesting question to me,

[36:20] and I'm not sure how Mark feels about

[36:21] this, but is who he's drawing from. I I

[36:24] think the nomination is down at the

[36:25] moment to to to Clinton versus Sunas. My

[36:29] gut tells me that if if Brown probably

[36:32] takes more more votes away from Sonus

[36:34] than he does from Clinton. I say that

[36:36] because Brown draws very well among the

[36:37] young. Sus tends to do reasonably well

[36:39] among the young. Bill Clinton tends to

[36:41] do very very well among the uh among the

[36:43] elderly population.

[36:44] >> Did Carrie getting out help or hurt

[36:46] either one of these guys?

[36:47] >> Oh, I I think I think it helps Clinton.

[36:50] Uh not that Kerry was leaving with 35%

[36:52] of the vote or anything of the sort, but

[36:54] I mean Bob Bob Kerry if if electability

[36:56] were a determinant this year, he was the

[36:58] one that sent the most flutters into

[37:00] Democratic hearts initially and most

[37:02] tremors into Republican ranks. And uh he

[37:05] stands I think as the most he stood as

[37:08] the most likely beneficiary of any

[37:10] further questions about Bill Clinton on

[37:12] character, especially any subsequent

[37:14] revelations that may come about the

[37:15] draft or or or whether Bill Clinton in

[37:18] fact advocated national service and and

[37:20] spent some time heartfully avoiding it

[37:23] for himself.

[37:24] >> Right. Speaking of Republicans, you just

[37:25] mentioned what about the Republicans? I

[37:27] mean, anything happening with them? I

[37:28] got a couple of questions about them,

[37:30] but the South Carolina primary first.

[37:32] Um, any upsets there this weekend?

[37:35] >> Bush big.

[37:36] >> Bush big.

[37:37] >> Davis, you got a headline for me, Davis?

[37:39] >> Very very I think Bush wins big in South

[37:41] Carolina because Governor Campbell is

[37:42] the governor of the state has has

[37:44] delivered South Carolina last time and

[37:46] George Bush and South Carolina

[37:47] Republicans get along just like Captain.

[37:49] It's a very strong Bush state. I think

[37:50] the president is going to do very well

[37:52] on Super Tuesday. The interesting thing

[37:53] today was there are indications from Pat

[37:56] Buchanan that that indeed if he does not

[37:57] win on Super Tuesday he does not win in

[37:59] Illinois and Michigan, he may well get

[38:01] out out of the race after that. That

[38:02] would certainly be a relief to the Bush

[38:04] campaign which very much wants to get

[38:06] off the road.

[38:06] >> Yeah. Well, yeah, that's right. I mean,

[38:08] there were reports all afternoon of all

[38:10] kinds of things going on in the Bush

[38:11] campaign that he's upset that this trip

[38:14] was a panic uh panically scheduled trip

[38:18] and he's canled two of the six days to

[38:20] go back to the White House. And then

[38:22] this afternoon, Marlon Fitzwwater got

[38:24] into it with the press, calling them a

[38:26] bunch of lazy bastards because they

[38:27] didn't want to go and watch a a speech

[38:30] that the president was going and um and

[38:32] for the first time uh I think Fitzwater

[38:35] shut off the PA system that went back to

[38:37] the pool where the reporters were

[38:39] listening. What is going on?

[38:42] >> George Bush is a very disgruntled uh

[38:45] candidate. He's an unhappy warrior out

[38:46] there. He's been forced into a campaign.

[38:48] he doesn't think he should be running in

[38:50] against a candidate he does not think

[38:52] should be running and he really wants to

[38:54] get out of this. He you know they

[38:55] weren't prepared for this kind of

[38:57] campaign. They weren't organized for it.

[38:59] They had postponed even putting together

[39:00] an organization. They had no idea Papy

[39:03] County would come at them this hard. Now

[39:04] they got very short fuses. Marlin on the

[39:06] Fitzwater on the way home and campaign

[39:08] plane uh went around to the press and

[39:11] didn't quite apologize for what he said,

[39:12] but he certainly tried to to soften it a

[39:14] great deal. M

[39:16] >> David, I mean, excuse me, Mark, how are

[39:17] you reading this?

[39:18] >> Uh, well, Charlene, I I agree with

[39:19] David. I mean, when you're in trouble

[39:21] politically, you try and go after

[39:22] somebody with no constituency. They

[39:24] don't want to criticize Pat Buchanan

[39:25] because he has a constituency. So, they

[39:27] go after the press and we have no

[39:28] constituency. We're kind of uh we're

[39:31] very convenient uh cushion to be kicked.

[39:34] Uh George Bush is in problem because and

[39:37] his anger is ought to be directed quite

[39:39] frankly his own presidency. George Bush

[39:41] is letting the campaign define him

[39:44] rather than his defining the campaign.

[39:46] Uh he's reacting. Uh he is fighting for

[39:49] a very thin sliver of of the

[39:51] conservative uh agenda. And and the

[39:54] irony I think is this that the

[39:56] Republicans with Pat Buchanan in this

[39:58] race are going through what has plagued

[39:59] the Democrats for years and that is

[40:01] appearing to cater pander to an exotic

[40:05] constituency with bizarre set of uh of

[40:07] demands uh on on an extreme of the party

[40:12] and then having a clamor back in a very

[40:14] unsightly fashion to the toward the

[40:15] middle in the fall. The Democrats

[40:17] haven't been able to make it. If Pat

[40:18] Buchanan stays in this race, the

[40:20] Republicans might not be able to make

[40:21] it. Well, is if Pat Buchanan stays in

[40:24] this race even long enough to keep the

[40:26] keep uh Bush and his people off guard,

[40:28] are they going to be able to peel uh uh

[40:31] Clinton in in the fall like a boiled

[40:33] peanut or or a songas for that matter? I

[40:36] mean,

[40:37] >> is it a real contest?

[40:38] >> We've got to come up with a vegetable

[40:40] for for what we peel him like.

[40:43] >> I don't know.

[40:43] >> Like what was it? What was an anchovi

[40:45] that was what did the Dukakus want to

[40:47] grow back there?

[40:47] >> He went Belgian Belgian and Belgian. I

[40:50] don't

[40:50] >> listen the the

[40:52] >> I think we're going to have to get to

[40:54] that discussion later. Thank you very

[40:56] much, David and Mark.

[40:58] >> Thank you.

[41:08] >> Finally tonight, more on a 4-year-old

[41:10] war in the old Soviet Union. And it's

[41:12] the one in the territory of Negorno

[41:14] Carabach in the Republic of Azerbaian

[41:17] between Azerbanis and Armenians. At

[41:19] least a thousand people have already

[41:22] died. The Soviet army used to help keep

[41:24] the two sides apart. Now those troops

[41:26] are trying to leave. Correspondent Mark

[41:29] Urban of the BBC was there two weeks

[41:31] ago. He found reports from two towns.

[41:33] One from one was the capital

[41:35] Stefarnikert. The other was a town close

[41:38] enough to be an artillery range.

[41:41] Shusha, a town of 30,000, dominates the

[41:44] main valley of Carabah.

[41:48] Below it lies Stipanakert, the enclaves

[41:51] capital and center of Armenian

[41:53] resistance.

[41:58] Once there were enough Armenians in

[42:00] Shusha to crowd its main church. They've

[42:03] disappeared and now the communities

[42:05] correspond almost entirely by means of

[42:07] gunfire and artillery.

[42:13] Azeri forward positions are not much

[42:15] more than a mile from Shusha, but are

[42:18] within small arms range of the

[42:19] Armenians.

[42:22] >> In this war, neither side gives or

[42:25] expects mercy. Prisoners are rarely

[42:28] taken and Changenis keeps one grenade in

[42:31] reserve.

[42:33] >> I carry it so that I can blow myself up

[42:35] if I'm taken prisoner.

[42:37] What has happened to the other Azeri

[42:39] soldiers who have been taken prisoner?

[42:42] >> They cut off their hands, their noses,

[42:45] and their ears while they're still

[42:46] alive, and they gouge out their eyes.

[42:52] >> When the thirst for vengeance proves

[42:54] greater than the protagonist's military

[42:56] competence, civilians are shelled

[42:58] indiscriminately.

[43:00] Armenian settlements have definitely

[43:02] taken worse punishment, but shells have

[43:05] also fallen in Shusha. Dozens of rockets

[43:08] landed around this mosque last month.

[43:11] One sliced into a block of flats. Almas

[43:15] Medieva and her three children were in

[43:17] their flat when it hit.

[43:21] >> On the 29th at 8:30, I was making tea in

[43:24] the kitchen. The children also were at

[43:27] home. Then the explosion occurred.

[43:32] The end of the day brings little

[43:34] restbite from the violence. Whereas

[43:36] Armenian infantry has proven better, the

[43:39] Azeris have exploited an advantage in

[43:42] firepower. The so-called Alazan rocket

[43:45] launcher was until recently their

[43:47] standard weapon against Stanakurt. Now

[43:51] heavier ordinance is also being used.

[43:55] With nightfall, Mrs. Medieva prepares to

[43:58] go to the basement shelter beneath her

[44:00] flat.

[44:03] Like others in the town, she's adamant

[44:06] that she won't leave.

[44:10] >> There she joins the other residents of

[44:12] the block. Underground, the inhabitants

[44:14] of the shelter wait with resignation for

[44:17] the inevitable barrage.

[44:19] >> We don't have trucks.

[44:21] >> Our houses are in a bad way and we have

[44:23] no peace. We are here all day and unable

[44:25] to go to work. And our children live in

[44:28] fear. Our infants sleep in underground

[44:30] shelters. On our own native soil, we're

[44:32] living in war conditions.

[44:38] >> By 10, there were few people on the

[44:40] streets. The town authorities say nearly

[44:43] 100 residents of Shusha have been killed

[44:46] since December.

[44:48] >> Hello.

[44:50] Mansour Mahmedov is the top man in

[44:53] Shusha. He holds sweeping military and

[44:55] civil powers. The locals call him Hakim

[44:59] the doctor. It was the middle of the

[45:01] night and it was apparent that things

[45:03] were not going well.

[45:08] Has the question of a helicopter to

[45:10] Malibelly been arranged yet?

[45:12] >> Has the helicopter been arranged?

[45:15] It was on this evening earlier this

[45:17] month that Hakim realized Malibelli, one

[45:20] of the two remaining Azeri villages

[45:22] close to Stanakurt, was slipping out of

[45:24] his hands. Hakim and his government

[45:27] aimed to force the Armenians into

[45:29] accepting that they are part of

[45:30] Azabaijan. But earlier this month, it

[45:33] appeared that maintaining any kind of

[45:35] Azeri presence within the enclave was

[45:37] the limit of his ambitions.

[45:44] Throughout the night, Azeri artillery

[45:46] poured shells onto the Armenians below.

[45:49] Around Malibelli, heavy machine guns

[45:51] spewed tracer across the sky. It was a

[45:54] struggle in vain.

[45:59] As morning came, Malibelli could still

[46:02] be seen smoldering from the night

[46:04] before's fighting. Hakim did his best to

[46:07] explain how the enemy had got the better

[46:09] of him.

[46:12] Malibu.

[46:13] >> Now, despite all this, we were unable to

[46:15] defend Malibelli with its population of

[46:17] 5,000. The Armenians burned down nearly

[46:20] 100 houses in the village. A

[46:22] considerable number of the population

[46:23] was killed, but I do not have precise

[46:26] information on the numbers of dead and

[46:27] injured.

[46:29] The burning down of the village of 5,000

[46:32] and the killing of its population and

[46:34] the way they were driven out is the

[46:36] latest example of the policy they have

[46:38] been following since 1988 of driving out

[46:41] the Azeris from Negoro Carabac.

[46:47] >> Armenian gunners or possibly those from

[46:50] the Soviet regiment still in Stanakert

[46:53] retaliated at breakfast time. We went to

[46:56] the source of the blasts a few hundred

[46:58] yards away about 45 minutes ago. This

[47:02] group of buildings in Shusha was blown

[47:04] apart by a series of explosions. On

[47:06] further examination, we've established

[47:08] that it was incoming shell fire and

[47:11] indeed the Armenians seem to have light

[47:13] artillery trained on the town.

[47:16] Several houses were destroyed, but no

[47:18] lives lost. This week, Kojali, the only

[47:22] remaining Azeri village in this valley,

[47:24] was also lost. What we didn't know as we

[47:27] left Shusha was that the humiliations of

[47:30] early February would prompt a deadly

[47:32] retaliation from the Azeris involving

[47:35] the virtual destruction of Stanakert.

[47:38] Events that we would witness on the

[47:40] Armenian side of this bitter war.

[47:45] Early last week, Azeri forces began the

[47:48] destruction of Stanakert, capital of

[47:51] Carabah and the center of Armenian

[47:53] resistance to Azeri rule.

[48:00] >> Embarrassed by the loss of several of

[48:02] their villages within Caribach, the

[48:05] Azeris were using powerful Grad multiple

[48:08] rocket launchers for the first time.

[48:10] Last Wednesday, more than 260 Grad

[48:14] rockets and howitzer shells fell on the

[48:16] city.

[48:21] One landed less than 200 yd from where

[48:23] we were filming.

[48:27] In all last week, more than 1,000 shells

[48:30] and rockets fell.

[48:35] Virtually every building in this city

[48:37] was damaged in some way.

[48:42] The parliament had been hit by five

[48:44] rockets. The seat of the rebel Armenians

[48:47] of Carabach all but destroyed. Their

[48:49] president met us at the town's KGB

[48:52] headquarters where now he contemplates

[48:54] the survival prospects of his republic.

[49:00] >> Stanette has not been attacked by the

[49:02] Azeri infantry so far, so we can't talk

[49:05] about hand-to-hand fighting. But the

[49:08] town has been shelled, causing suffering

[49:10] to the civilian population. There are

[49:12] two possible solutions. One is to

[49:14] eliminate Azer's artillery and to stop

[49:17] the bombardment. The other is to

[49:19] evacuate the town's population.

[49:23] Stanakurt's hospital has already been

[49:25] hit by a Zeri fire several times. With

[49:28] the intensification of fighting, its

[49:31] staff doubt their ability to cope.

[49:45] virtually there is no hospital as it is

[49:48] now. Uh if they are granted a basement

[49:51] somewhere

[49:54] they just can go on with uh uh treating

[49:58] people but so far they can't.

[50:08] Inside the operating theater, surgeons

[50:10] fought to save the life of a man struck

[50:12] by pieces of shrapnel.

[50:17] >> The whole agonizing procedure was

[50:19] conducted without general anesthetic.

[50:31] Seriously ill patients were shaken as

[50:34] the 40 rocket load of a grad landed not

[50:37] far away.

[50:41] This 17-year-old girl refused to leave

[50:44] her mother's side as the shelling went

[50:46] on.

[50:52] Watched over by her brother and aunt,

[50:54] Aravik Petrosian's spinal injuries

[50:56] proved too serious for treatment at this

[50:58] hospital. Her hatred for the Azeris once

[51:01] her neighbors burned with disquening

[51:03] force.

[51:09] >> She says that they are not people, they

[51:12] are just beasts and money.

[51:19] How can a man just drive another person

[51:23] to a position like this?

[51:28] >> No water, no bread, no energy.

[51:38] Others didn't survive. 17 people were

[51:41] killed on this day and one by one their

[51:44] families came to collect the bodies.

[51:49] Dozens more have died since. Victims of

[51:53] indiscriminate artillery fire into the

[51:55] town.

[52:01] The night sky was illuminated by burning

[52:04] homes.

[52:06] Families salvaged what they could,

[52:08] piecing together the remnants of their

[52:09] domestic lives on the freezing pavements

[52:12] outside.

[52:18] Morning in Stanakurt's housing blocks is

[52:20] marked by falling glass and the quest

[52:23] for water. All public utilities have

[52:26] been cut off by the surrounding Azeris.

[52:31] >> A procession of containers awaits the

[52:34] trickle from a municipal water fountain

[52:36] fed by an artezian well.

[52:40] >> Trapped in the city is a Soviet army

[52:42] regiment. Under strain, it's begun to

[52:45] disintegrate.

[52:48] Rogue officers frequently lead their men

[52:50] on retaliatory raids against the Azeris.

[52:53] On the day we filmed this patrol, the

[52:55] defense ministry in Moscow was claiming

[52:58] that the soldiers were playing no part

[53:00] in operations. Today, Moscow has

[53:02] announced that these troops are to be

[53:04] pulled out.

[53:10] Dozens have deserted the regiment.

[53:12] Nikolai Linko went across to the

[53:14] Armenians because he was told that he

[53:16] might have to stay in Stapanakert

[53:18] indefinitely.

[53:20] Supposedly neutral, regimental officers

[53:22] ended up siding with the Armenians.

[53:28] Throughout last week, thousands of

[53:29] citizens left Stanak seeking refuge in

[53:32] surrounding villages.

[53:37] We joined a Red Cross team and refugees

[53:40] crowded in an open lorry leaving the

[53:42] city.

[53:44] In the village of Kolletac, the

[53:46] population increased fivefold because of

[53:49] refugees. Although they quit their

[53:51] capital, they're determined not to leave

[53:54] Caribach

[53:59] under no circumstances. Never. Carabach

[54:02] is ours, our ancestral land. The Azeris

[54:06] can claim it all they want, but it's

[54:07] ours. It's a question of justice. Our

[54:11] young people will never give up. In any

[54:13] case, we will stay put. Separated from

[54:16] Armenia by an Azeri blockade, Carabach's

[54:19] food is slowly running out.

[54:25] >> When after 5 days a helicopter arrived,

[54:28] casualties went first.

[54:31] Aravik Petroan, who had endured her

[54:33] spinal injuries without painkillers, was

[54:36] carried on board.

[54:39] There was desperation among those who'd

[54:40] waited. A mother and her young children

[54:43] were the last to be put on board.

[54:51] The helicopter pulled away into the sky

[54:53] and soon above the clouds it skirted the

[54:56] peaks of Caraba, leaving behind a war in

[54:59] which suffering and killing grow worse

[55:01] by the day.

[55:10] Again, the main stories of this Friday.

[55:12] The nation's jobless rate jumped to

[55:14] 7.3%,

[55:16] its highest level in more than six

[55:18] years. But a separate report showed

[55:21] employers added more than 160,000 jobs

[55:24] to payrolls. And the much feared

[55:27] Michelangelo computer virus struck but

[55:29] inflicted relatively little damage. Most

[55:32] computer users apparently took

[55:34] precautions against it. Good night, Jim.

[55:36] >> Good night, Charlene. We'll see you on

[55:38] Monday night with previews of the

[55:40] crucial Super Tuesday primaries. Have a

[55:42] nice weekend. I'm Jim Lara. Thank you

[55:44] and good night.

[55:47] >> Part of helping the world live and

[55:49] communicate better is keeping it well

[55:51] informed.

[55:54] That's why funding for the McNeel Lair

[55:56] NewsHour is provided by AT&T

[56:01] and by PepsiCo.