The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour (PBS) - 1992-07-24

Channel: malgent

Transcript

Language: English (YouTube automatic captions)

[0:03] [music]

[0:09] [music]

[0:12] Good evening. I'm Jim Lara in

[0:14] Washington.

[0:15] >> And I'm Robert McNeel in New York. After

[0:17] tonight's news summary, we examine what

[0:19] military options the US and Gulf allies

[0:22] have to make Saddam Hussein obey the

[0:24] United Nations. David Gergen and Mark

[0:26] Shields analyze the week's politics and

[0:28] essayist Roger Rosenblat discusses

[0:30] Rosaro quitting the presidential race.

[0:34] Funding for the McNeel NewsHour has been

[0:36] provided by PepsiCo,

[0:39] [music]

[0:45] [music]

[0:50] Pexico.

[0:53] Part of helping the world live and

[0:54] communicate better is keeping it well

[0:56] informed. That's why funding for the

[0:58] NewsHour is also provided by AT&T

[1:02] and by the Corporation for Public

[1:04] Broadcasting and viewers like you.

[1:08] International pressure on Iraq mounted

[1:10] today. Diplomats at the United Nations

[1:12] said that the US, Britain, and France

[1:14] were preparing to deliver an ultimatum

[1:16] backed by a threat of military force.

[1:18] The confrontation was provoked by Iraq's

[1:21] refusal to let UN weapons inspectors

[1:23] search a Baghdad building. The weapons

[1:25] team spent more than two weeks parked

[1:27] outside the building before leaving

[1:29] because of threats to their safety. Five

[1:31] members of the team left Iraq today. 65

[1:34] other UN officials remain in the

[1:36] country. The head of the UN special

[1:38] commission on Iraq said Iraqi officials

[1:40] were considering a new proposal to end

[1:42] the impass. Iraq's UN ambassador said

[1:45] this evening that he had a conversation

[1:47] with officials in Baghdad and got the

[1:49] impression there would be a way out of

[1:51] the crisis. He said he would have a

[1:53] definitive answer in 24 hours. President

[1:56] Bush canled a weekend vacation in Maine

[1:58] to confer on the situation with his

[2:00] military advisers at Camp David

[2:02] tomorrow. His spokesman, Marlon

[2:04] Fitzwwater, described the situation with

[2:06] Iraq as the most serious so far. He

[2:09] explained why at a news conference in

[2:10] Ohio.

[2:12] The situation is that we continue to

[2:14] find a pattern of defiance in Iraq by

[2:18] Saddam Hussein and his regime uh to the

[2:21] UN resolutions. Uh we continue to uh see

[2:24] a situation in which they are not making

[2:27] in making satisfactory efforts to comply

[2:31] with the inspections. Uh there have been

[2:33] attacks on their own citizens by

[2:35] aircraft bombing in the south.

[2:38] uh there has been uh ignoring of other

[2:40] as other resolutions uh the oil for food

[2:44] resolution and others. So the situation

[2:46] that we are considering is is the across

[2:49] the board defiance that we see in Iraq

[2:53] of the UN resolution.

[2:55] >> Secretary of State Baker echoed the

[2:57] tough talk on Iraq today. He spoke after

[3:00] meeting in Saudi Arabia with the

[3:02] country's foreign minister. The

[3:04] important thing here is that I think

[3:06] that uh that uh security council

[3:08] resolutions

[3:10] uh should be uh should be implemented

[3:12] and should be complied with. This is

[3:14] something uh with respect to which the

[3:16] United States has felt very strongly in

[3:19] the past and I I can promise you we feel

[3:22] strongly about it today. So our view is

[3:25] there must be compliance with United

[3:27] Nations Security Council resolution. A

[3:30] US helicopter assault ship, the USS

[3:32] Tarowa, and three other members of its

[3:35] battle group sailed into the Persian

[3:37] Gulf today. Navy officials said they

[3:39] would join nearly two dozen other US

[3:41] warships in the region. They said the

[3:43] ships were conducting joint exercises

[3:45] with Gulf Arab states. Defense Secretary

[3:48] Dick Cheney said the US was fully

[3:50] prepared to use force against Iraq if

[3:52] needed. He said Iraqi President Saddam

[3:54] Hussein had apparently decided to pursue

[3:56] a course of confrontation with the UN,

[3:59] which he did at his peril. Cheney spoke

[4:01] during a trip to Atlanta.

[4:04] Clearly, we have the capacity uh should

[4:07] a decision be made uh by the president,

[4:10] we have the capacity to uh resume

[4:12] military operations against Iraq. Um

[4:16] that's a decision that only the

[4:18] president can make and uh it's one that

[4:22] uh I would expect that he would not make

[4:24] until there's been uh uh consultation

[4:28] with u our partners in the coalition and

[4:31] with the other members of the UN

[4:32] Security Council. We always at the

[4:35] Department of Defense are in the

[4:36] business of contingency planning. That's

[4:38] that's our profession. That's what we

[4:40] get paid for. And uh certainly we uh are

[4:44] fulfilling our obligations at the

[4:46] present time.

[4:47] >> We'll have much more on this story uh

[4:49] later in the program. Jim,

[4:51] >> Secretary of State Baker was in Saudi

[4:53] Arabia today to talk Middle East peace.

[4:56] It was his last stop on his week-long

[4:58] mission to the region. He said he hoped

[5:00] Israel and the Arabs would get down to

[5:02] nitty-gritty issues when their peace

[5:04] talks resume. He announced no date for

[5:06] those talks. Arab nations met in

[5:09] Damascus, Syria to coordinate their

[5:11] approach to those talks. Syria's foreign

[5:13] minister said proposals from Israel's

[5:15] new government had been vague so far.

[5:19] President Bush was heckled today by

[5:21] families of missing American servicemen

[5:23] from the Vietnam War. He was addressing

[5:25] the National League of Families meeting

[5:27] in Arlington, Virginia, when members

[5:29] interrupted his speech with shots of no

[5:31] more lies. They were protesting the lack

[5:34] of progress and the fact that many

[5:35] government documents on the subject had

[5:37] remained classified until this week.

[5:46] >> No more lies. More lies. No more lies.

[5:50] Tell us the truth. Tell us the truth.

[6:02] Order was restored after about 5 minutes

[6:04] and the president responded.

[6:07] >> This is a very emotional, understandably

[6:10] emotional. And the thing that I would

[6:12] say to you, however, as a veteran and

[6:15] one who

[6:18] still wears my Navy wings from time to

[6:21] time, is I hope you understand how I

[6:23] feel about patriotism.

[6:27] about service to my country and I will

[6:30] put my record up against anybody here

[6:34] >> and I just would you please be quiet and

[6:37] let me finish. Would you please shut up

[6:40] and sit down?

[6:45] And I would say this,

[6:47] to suggest that a commanderin-chief that

[6:50] led this country into its most

[6:51] successful recent effort, would condone

[6:54] for one single day, that personal

[6:58] knowledge of a person held against his

[7:00] will, whether it's here or any place

[7:03] else, is simply totally unfair.

[7:07] Democratic Senator John Kerry, chairman

[7:10] of the Senate Select Committee on PWS

[7:12] and MIA, later praised the president for

[7:14] declassifying most government documents

[7:16] on the issue earlier this week. Those

[7:19] documents include harsh criticism of

[7:21] Pentagon efforts to locate Americans in

[7:23] Southeast Asia. One 1986 report said

[7:26] investigators often had a mindset to

[7:29] debunk rather than analyze reports of

[7:32] live sightings. A Navy panel today

[7:35] recommended a discharge for a gay

[7:37] aviator who challenged the military's

[7:39] ban on homosexuals. The panel did not

[7:42] indicate the basis for its decision. On

[7:44] another matter, the Navy's chief

[7:46] training officer was removed from his

[7:48] post today. Vice Admiral Jack Fetterman

[7:50] was accused of protecting a staff member

[7:52] from an investigation into alleged

[7:54] homosexual activity. Orders to US

[7:57] factories for durable goods jumped 2.3%

[8:01] in June. The Commerce Department said it

[8:03] was the highest level since last August.

[8:06] Durable goods are big ticket items

[8:08] expected to last more than 3 years. The

[8:11] House passed a bill last night to

[8:13] regulate cable television. The vote was

[8:16] 340 to 73. The bill would restrict rates

[8:19] for basic cable service to a price

[8:22] formula established by the Federal

[8:23] Communications Commission. The Senate

[8:26] passed a similar bill last January. The

[8:28] president has threatened to veto it. A

[8:31] United Nations convoy in Bosnia was

[8:33] stopped by a landmine explosion today.

[8:36] One person was injured. The convoy was

[8:38] trying to bring relief supplies to the

[8:40] besieged town of Gorazde, the last

[8:42] Muslim holdout in eastern Bosnia. Muslim

[8:45] refugees continued to pour out of Bosnia

[8:47] into neighboring neighboring Croatia.

[8:49] Some 8,000 arrived in the town of

[8:51] Carlovak today. Germany has agreed to

[8:54] accept most of the group. The fighting

[8:56] in Bosnia has sparked what humanitarian

[8:58] officials describe as Europe's biggest

[9:00] refugee crisis since World War II.

[9:04] United Nations officials today warned

[9:06] that 1 and a2 million people in the

[9:08] African nation of Somalia are at risk of

[9:10] starvation in the next few weeks. They

[9:13] said a total of more than 4 million

[9:14] Somali need some measure of aid due to a

[9:17] famine and a bloody civil war. The

[9:19] figure represents virtually the entire

[9:21] population of the country. Today,

[9:23] Secretary General Bros Gali called for

[9:26] an urgent airlift of relief supplies to

[9:28] all affected areas. Yesterday, he

[9:31] reportedly lashed out at the Security

[9:33] Council for paying too much attention to

[9:35] what he called the war of the rich in

[9:37] Bosnia while ignoring the crisis in

[9:39] Somalia. The International AIDS

[9:41] Conference concluded today in Amsterdam.

[9:44] The week-long meeting was dominated by

[9:46] reports of patients who have symptoms of

[9:48] AIDS but do not test positive for the

[9:51] HIV virus. By the end of the week,

[9:54] researchers were still saying the

[9:55] evidence is inconclusive about whether a

[9:58] new virus is responsible for the

[10:00] symptoms, but they did agree it is a

[10:02] potentially serious threat that demands

[10:05] immediate attention. That's our summary

[10:07] of the news. Still ahead, what are the

[10:09] military options in Iraq? Gergen and

[10:12] Shields on politics and Rosenblat on

[10:15] Perau.

[10:18] [music]

[10:24] The rising temperatures over Iraq is our

[10:26] lead story tonight. The issue is Iraq's

[10:29] compliance with UN resolutions on

[10:31] weapons of mass destruction. In the

[10:33] latest incident, Iraq refused to allow

[10:36] UN inspectors into a government building

[10:38] in Baghdad to look at documents on

[10:41] weapons programs. Today, White House

[10:43] press secretary Fitzwater described

[10:45] Iraq's attitude as one of a

[10:47] crosstheboard defiance. Two days ago, he

[10:50] threatened military action. Our coverage

[10:52] begins with the UN official in charge of

[10:54] the Iraq weapons operation, Ralph Eayas.

[10:57] Charlene Hunter G talked to him earlier

[11:00] today at the UN and asked him to explain

[11:03] how the crisis developed.

[11:05] >> I felt it didn't start it that serious.

[11:07] It was that it has developed because the

[11:10] accumulation of refusals and the

[11:14] combination of events um have made it

[11:18] more serious than maybe any time before.

[11:22] What is so important about the documents

[11:24] inside the agriculture department in

[11:27] Baghdad?

[11:29] >> It's both document and other material of

[11:31] great significance according to sources

[11:34] information available to us. Uh it is

[11:38] significant because it would give us a

[11:40] very

[11:42] decisive

[11:43] final picture I would say of what

[11:45] remains in Iran.

[11:47] I understand that these documents might

[11:49] also lead you to some of the suppliers

[11:52] around the world who've been supplying

[11:54] Baghdad with these weap materials for

[11:58] weapons of mass destruction.

[12:01] >> Well, uh

[12:03] we have never confirmed that but you are

[12:05] of course close to what we have in mind.

[12:07] >> So this would be a major major finding

[12:11] for you.

[12:12] >> Well, that is our well-grounded concern.

[12:15] We don't know. No, we had to verify that

[12:17] through the inspection.

[12:19] >> I understand that the issue developed

[12:21] over what Iraqi officials are calling

[12:24] the sovereignty of Iraq. If that's the

[12:27] case, how do you do they have a point?

[12:29] >> Well, Iraq has defined this the standoff

[12:32] as an issue of sovereignty for I'm not

[12:34] quite sure that is a correct

[12:36] description. It may very well be the

[12:38] standoff is about the material they

[12:40] don't want us to find. I guess it's

[12:43] closer to that. But you're working on a

[12:45] compromise. I mean, what what would be

[12:47] the nature of the compromise that would

[12:49] allow you to get into that building?

[12:52] >> We will not accept any compromise. It's

[12:54] not possible for us to have a

[12:55] compromise. We were working little

[12:58] earlier on some I would say softer

[13:00] solutions which we could have when we

[13:03] had our people watching and monitoring

[13:06] the building.

[13:07] >> Softer solutions like what? Well, in a

[13:09] gradual approach which would not be

[13:13] intrusive to his character. However, the

[13:15] Iraqi authorities choose to with

[13:18] violence to remove our people outside

[13:22] >> the building and that for forced us to

[13:24] of course to give up these more gradual

[13:28] approaches.

[13:29] >> But the issue is whether they get access

[13:31] to the documents.

[13:32] >> Yes, the issue is we get access that we

[13:35] can inspect the building. So what

[13:38] options do you have? I mean what kind of

[13:39] conversations could you be having with

[13:41] uh ambassador Alan Bari that would

[13:44] resolve this impact?

[13:46] >> We try to define modalities which would

[13:49] also help Iraq out of the impass

[13:52] itself.

[13:53] >> For example,

[13:54] >> I don't want to disclose the details in

[13:57] this

[13:58] >> but some have said that that maybe some

[14:00] other configuration of a team uh smaller

[14:04] numbers of a team or something like

[14:05] that. Is that anywhere close to what

[14:07] could happen?

[14:09] >> We will not we will we are aiming at the

[14:12] fullbodied

[14:14] top professional highquality inspection.

[14:19] >> What would be your most informed

[14:20] judgment at this point about the

[14:22] possibility of a military strike?

[14:26] I hope that if we can now get the quick

[14:29] solution

[14:31] uh the matter will be uh stay so to say

[14:35] on the peaceful track.

[14:37] >> You mentioned earlier time pressure to

[14:40] resolve this. What is the time

[14:41] imperative here?

[14:43] >> The time imperative is first of all that

[14:45] Iraq can remove matters out of the

[14:48] facility. The second for us obvious is

[14:51] the continuing accumulating personal

[14:54] threat vandalization against our

[14:57] personnel there which is uh deteriorate

[15:01] and bring put us into problem.

[15:03] >> Who from your team is in effect minding

[15:06] the store now seeing to it that the

[15:09] documents are not taken out of the

[15:11] building. We moved out most of the team,

[15:14] the chief inspector and several

[15:17] inspectors this morning because of the

[15:20] physical threats against them and that

[15:22] they were they needed badly needed rest

[15:25] and uh recuperation. We kept a couple of

[15:29] persons in but we the commission as such

[15:32] we have something like 65 persons the

[15:36] various capacities in Baghdad and

[15:38] surrounding. Uh so we have um a couple

[15:42] of relatively senior persons also in

[15:44] place.

[15:44] >> So they would be able to tell if

[15:46] anything was taken out of the building.

[15:48] >> We can't control 24 hours anymore

[15:50] because as we are forced away from the

[15:52] buildings we can only keep the spot

[15:54] check type of control.

[15:56] >> How long can this process go on without

[16:00] your group and without the United

[16:01] Nations and the whole international

[16:03] community losing credibility?

[16:06] I think the process has far from lost it

[16:08] credibility sense that we have

[16:11] identified and found almost all his

[16:13] capability and we feel that relatively

[16:16] little is left but that doesn't mean

[16:18] that we can stop we feel that we have to

[16:20] take everything however I agree that uh

[16:23] there is a tendency from the Iraqi side

[16:26] to suddenly create such crisis

[16:30] situations of maybe political

[16:32] considerations I don't know why they do

[16:34] it all they don't like to be uh

[16:39] caught red-handed in a way. Uh so it is

[16:44] it is not I think it is unhealthy for

[16:48] the whole situation that they take that

[16:50] type of policy. We hope this is the last

[16:53] time they do it.

[16:55] >> How soon do you think the impass will be

[16:57] broken?

[16:59] >> My hope is it will be today.

[17:02] >> Mr. Eio, thank you for joining us.

[17:06] Late this afternoon, two key US senators

[17:08] said President Bush already has the

[17:11] legal authority to take military action

[17:13] without getting approval from Congress.

[17:15] Armed Services Committee Chairman Sam

[17:17] Nun and Senior Republican John Warner

[17:20] talked to reporters at the capital.

[17:23] It is my view that uh he is in

[17:26] violation, Saddam Hussein is in

[17:27] violation of the UN mandate. He's in

[17:30] violation of the ceasefire agreement. uh

[17:33] and I it is my view we have to be

[17:35] prepared for uh some type punitive

[17:37] action. I hope that it will not be

[17:39] required but we're getting very near to

[17:41] the point where it has to be seriously

[17:42] considered and I think that I'm sure the

[17:45] military and I hope the military has the

[17:47] appropriate contingency plans and the

[17:48] appropriate targeting. It would be my

[17:51] hope that we do not have to do it. I

[17:53] hope he backs down as he has in the past

[17:55] but we cannot nor can the UN tolerate uh

[17:58] this kind of position. Could I add that

[18:01] in researching what the Congress did

[18:04] last year under the existing law, the

[18:06] president has the authority to go

[18:08] forward and if necessary together with

[18:11] our allies use military force. I join

[18:14] the chairman in saying that I'm hopeful

[18:16] that it does have to be used, but we I

[18:18] think there's a strong consensus in the

[18:20] Congress that we should support

[18:23] compliance with UN resolution and

[18:25] there's clear evidence of non-compliance

[18:27] at this time. on the question of um of

[18:31] of military action that that has to be

[18:33] carefully done not only with the initial

[18:35] targets in mind in terms of contingency

[18:37] planning but also with follow on

[18:39] targets. I think it's not enough simply

[18:42] to plan for one uh brief uh uh episode.

[18:46] We have to be able to plan for things

[18:49] that would go further than that. But

[18:50] that's in the planning stage and again I

[18:52] hope that he will back down as he as he

[18:54] has in the past. Uh I would also believe

[18:57] that uh military targets would be most

[19:00] appropriate and that we ought to try to

[19:01] avoid damage to civilian targets if uh

[19:04] some type military action is required

[19:05] and I hope that again he will back down.

[19:08] >> What about going after Saddam?

[19:13] >> Well I I would assume contrary to some

[19:16] things I've read that we did that the

[19:18] whole course of the war. Uh and that

[19:21] would not have been in any way an

[19:23] assassination under the United Nations

[19:26] under the wars uh the the rules of of

[19:29] the war uh rules of war going back for

[19:33] years and years. Command and control is

[19:36] a legitimate military target in a war

[19:39] situation. Command and control is

[19:41] defined as person who's

[19:42] commander-in-chief right on down the

[19:44] line. Saddam Hussein is in the chain of

[19:46] command and this is not in my view if he

[19:49] is in the chain of command it is a

[19:51] legitimate target. It is not an easy

[19:54] target. If I could add a word,

[19:58] it is quite clear that the people of the

[20:00] United States and indeed the allied

[20:03] countries which associate with us in in

[20:05] such military action if it is necessary

[20:08] have no vindictive or hatred against the

[20:11] people of Iraq and that should be made

[20:14] clear from the outset. I join the

[20:16] chairman. And I hope we don't have to

[20:18] use force, but if we do use it together

[20:20] with our allies, I hope it's employed in

[20:23] such a way it can bring once and for all

[20:25] a conclusion to this issue and that we

[20:28] not have that lingering doubt that has

[20:31] followed the first military operation

[20:34] some months ago. A short while ago this

[20:37] evening, Mr. Eayas of the UN met with

[20:40] Iraq's ambassador to the UN, Abdul Amir

[20:43] Alanbari. After that meeting, Alan Barry

[20:46] told reporters he expected to hear from

[20:48] his government within the next 24 hours

[20:51] about about a possible way out of this

[20:54] crisis. Robin, now we have four views on

[20:57] the growing conflict between the UN and

[20:59] Iraq. Josh Freriedman is a Pulitzer

[21:01] Prizewinning journalist who covers the

[21:02] United Nations for New York Day. Phoebe

[21:05] Maher is a senior fellow at the National

[21:07] Defense University and the author of a

[21:09] book on Iraq. She's recently returned

[21:11] from northern Iraq. Bruce Vanvorst is

[21:13] national security correspondent for Time

[21:15] magazine and [music] and uh Lauri Milroe

[21:19] Milroy, I'm sorry, is an associate at

[21:21] the Washington Institute for Near East

[21:23] Policy and author of a biography of

[21:25] Saddam Hussein. She also recently

[21:27] returned from a week in northern Iraq

[21:29] and she joins us from Boston. PB Mah,

[21:32] all this talk of military action, what

[21:36] realistic options does the US and its

[21:39] Gulf allies have in a case like this?

[21:42] What could they do that would be

[21:44] efficacious and not create more mess

[21:47] than it hoped to do or that [music] it

[21:50] wanted to do?

[21:51] >> Well, it is a very difficult uh it is a

[21:54] difficult situation. Uh let us hope that

[21:58] the kinds of pressure uh that Saddam has

[22:01] been uh subjected to uh is going to

[22:05] cause some kind of a solution that will

[22:07] allow continued intrusive inspection uh

[22:11] in Iraq. Uh but what can we do uh if it

[22:15] uh if it doesn't? Uh it certainly seems

[22:17] to me that some kind of of military

[22:19] action uh could have a punitive uh

[22:23] result. uh we could uh uh take out

[22:27] certain military uh targets uh command

[22:30] and control. We could make it painful uh

[22:33] and make people aware or make the

[22:35] leadership aware uh that uh it's going

[22:38] to get more painful unless they they

[22:40] comply. One thing that we can do too uh

[22:43] and is perhaps unspoken uh is to weaken

[22:46] Saddam survivability. I'm not optimistic

[22:49] uh that this uh problem can be solved by

[22:52] a couple of uh a couple of actions. I

[22:54] think we're in it for the long haul. Uh

[22:56] I think the American public and others

[22:58] need to be prepared for the fact that

[22:59] it's not going to be easy. Uh and in the

[23:01] end, we may just have to continue the

[23:04] sanctions regime, continue to tighten

[23:06] it, uh continue uh to keep Saddam boxed

[23:09] in until everybody uh understands uh

[23:12] there's going to be no improvement uh

[23:14] until the situation changes. So talk of

[23:17] a couple little bombing raids on on a

[23:20] few buildings [music] for targets is not

[23:22] in the card. Do you think it just that

[23:24] wouldn't do it?

[23:25] >> Uh frankly, I have to say I don't think

[23:27] it would. I wish I wish it would, but I

[23:29] don't think it would. The targets have

[23:31] to be selected in part to weaken as I

[23:34] say his survivability uh to raise the

[23:36] price uh to the uh to the military. Uh

[23:40] and even if this is done uh Saddam is

[23:43] very defiant. He may uh he may survive

[23:46] it. I think the likelihood would be that

[23:47] he uh he would survive it in the long

[23:49] run. There be there may be no

[23:51] alternative to keeping the sanctions uh

[23:54] finding other ways to tighten the

[23:56] sanctions loop in Jordan uh for example

[23:59] uh and make it making it perfectly clear

[24:01] that he's not going to get out of this

[24:03] box that we put him in. And indeed we

[24:04] have put him in a box. Uh his situation

[24:07] is not as good as people would uh would

[24:09] some people would let let us believe. uh

[24:12] there's not going to be any improvement

[24:13] uh until he either complies or some

[24:15] people uh decide it's time for him to

[24:17] go.

[24:18] >> Bruce Vanvor, you um spend a lot of time

[24:20] at the Pentagon. What do you think are

[24:23] the realistic options militarily? What

[24:25] can they do that wouldn't involve this

[24:27] country and perhaps some other allied

[24:29] countries in a in [music] a bigger

[24:31] military entanglement than um than uh

[24:35] they [music] might hope. That's quite a

[24:36] qualification you make there because

[24:38] practically every reasonable military

[24:40] operation that can be conceived would

[24:42] have to go beyond just the initial

[24:44] hitting one or two of the uh immediate

[24:46] targets. There is a target set as people

[24:49] in the Pentagon describe it. That is the

[24:51] initial targets might well be uh some of

[24:54] the installations that Iraq is bound to

[24:56] destroy under the UN mandate in any case

[24:58] and we haven't gotten around to

[24:59] destroying it. But the Pentagon

[25:01] officials have already made it clear

[25:02] that if we do strike, it will be to

[25:04] other locations as well. Uh you note in

[25:07] the last couple of days the official

[25:08] spokesman have been talking about uh the

[25:11] Iraqi action against this the Shia in

[25:13] the south. Some of the military bases

[25:15] connected with that operation might be

[25:16] targeted as well.

[25:17] >> Meaning hitting Iraq, some of Saddam's

[25:19] actual forces like Republican guards and

[25:22] things.

[25:22] >> Exactly that. And the command and

[25:23] control centers which which are there as

[25:25] well. And the same thing applies for the

[25:26] north. But it has to be made clear that

[25:29] as well that uh this isn't necessarily

[25:31] going to be sufficient to achieve

[25:33] whatever objective the president may

[25:34] have in mind. Uh does he hope to

[25:37] overthrow uh Mr. Saddam through this

[25:39] action? Uh it's very dubious that as we

[25:41] learned from the Gulf War that simple

[25:43] military operations alone will do that.

[25:45] In any case, we can't be talking about

[25:46] just a very short quick operation. Uh

[25:49] this is going to require if they get

[25:51] into military operations is going to

[25:53] require a sustained and uh uh an effort

[25:56] that we really persevere in.

[25:58] >> Uh Lori Milroy, you heard Senator Warner

[26:01] there at the very end say um it might be

[26:04] necessary, hoped it wouldn't, but it

[26:06] might be necessary to take some action

[26:08] which would dispel the uh the I've

[26:10] forgotten his exact words, but the sort

[26:12] of uncertainty that was left after the

[26:15] Gulf War. What do you think of the um

[26:17] the realistic prospect or efficacy of

[26:20] military operations to do this?

[26:23] >> Yeah, there may indeed be military

[26:26] operations. What I doubt is whether you

[26:29] can enforce um any of the UN resolutions

[26:31] with Saddam Hussein in power. I think

[26:34] the orthodox military attitude is to ask

[26:37] what is the point of this strike to

[26:38] teach Saddam a lesson? Well, Desert

[26:40] Storm didn't teach him a lesson. What is

[26:42] what is this strike going to do? And

[26:44] that I think has to do with uh relates

[26:46] to the Pentagon's hesitancy about this

[26:48] matter. My own view is that the problem

[26:50] is the goal is misstated. The goal

[26:53] should be to weaken Saddam Hussein's

[26:56] hold on power with the object of

[26:58] ultimately seeing him ousted. And the

[27:00] way to do that is to target specifically

[27:03] that which keeps him in power. That can

[27:05] be done on the basis of resolution 688

[27:08] because

[27:08] >> things like what what would what would

[27:10] you target that keeps him in power?

[27:12] Well, it was just mentioned the those

[27:14] forces now that are committing a

[27:16] terrible terrible uh repression against

[27:18] the Shia, the south, you could tell

[27:21] target the helicopter forces on the

[27:23] basis both of what they're doing in the

[27:25] south now and what they did after the

[27:27] war ended. The commander of the

[27:29] helicopter forces a fellow very loyal to

[27:31] Saddam Hussein. um and the internal

[27:35] security barracks um that keep Saddam in

[27:38] power and say these are the people who

[27:40] are repressing the population of Iraq

[27:42] that the violation of resolution 688 and

[27:46] any military strike is going to um be

[27:48] heavily oriented towards those targets.

[27:51] >> Mhm. Um do you um I'll come I'll go back

[27:55] to those questions with Josh Freriedman.

[27:57] Uh you cover the United Nations. Are the

[28:00] sorts of military action you've heard

[28:02] discussed as plausible in this uh

[28:04] situation likely to get support from US

[28:07] allies in the security council? US

[28:10] allies in the Gulf War in the Security

[28:12] Council? Now

[28:13] >> yes.

[28:13] >> Yes. Mhm. And who would support it and

[28:16] uh who would would anybody raise

[28:18] difficulties about it? Uh I think Iraq

[28:20] is a pariah of the United Nations and uh

[28:25] there's a great deal of anger among the

[28:26] non-aligned. All of the people who were

[28:28] working there who were sending checks

[28:30] home have been sent home. They're

[28:31] sitting around unemployed in places like

[28:33] India and Bangladesh. Uh it Iraq has

[28:36] just made life worse for everybody. And

[28:38] uh I would say generally uh while they

[28:41] would support military action is

[28:42] generally sort of a sick stomach feeling

[28:44] about the whole thing because nobody

[28:45] thinks it'll do anything. Would they uh

[28:48] agree with uh what Lori Milroy just said

[28:51] that you won't enforce the sanctions

[28:54] with Saddam as long as Saddam is still

[28:56] in power?

[28:57] >> Yes. I think he's perceived as a very

[28:58] cunning person who's managed to every

[29:02] few months probe and back down, probe

[29:03] and back down and now probe and find

[29:05] that in the last month uh the Americans

[29:08] were not paying attention. The new

[29:11] American ambassador is not uh plugged

[29:13] in, does not take the initiative that

[29:15] the former one did. And for a month he

[29:17] was able to keep probing and nothing

[29:18] happened. And now that everybody is

[29:20] awakened to this is it's very late.

[29:22] >> So is the feeling at the United Nations

[29:25] uh uh today that if this latest effort

[29:28] at a compromise between Echos and Alan

[29:30] Barry doesn't produce one that it is

[29:33] inevitable there's going to be some kind

[29:35] of force or there will be a series of

[29:36] stages before that of warnings,

[29:39] ultimatums, whatever. Well, I think they

[29:40] know there has to be something to

[29:41] enforce the discipline of the council

[29:44] because uh in a much larger sense the

[29:47] new world order is becoming the new

[29:49] world disorder and uh there are many

[29:51] problems in Yugoslavia and Somalia all

[29:54] over the world now that are testing and

[29:56] straining the UN and so they don't want

[29:58] to show any kind of weakness or or

[30:00] failure of discipline. Uh there's a lack

[30:03] >> and that's that's universal is there's a

[30:05] consensus on that isn't there?

[30:07] >> Yeah. I would say my own feeling is that

[30:09] everybody's in the boat. You know, there

[30:10] are little leaks coming around and uh

[30:12] there's a general feeling that given the

[30:14] fact that the UN is broke, that the US

[30:17] is broke and that uh problems are

[30:19] springing up, things have to be kept in

[30:21] order.

[30:22] >> Phoebe Maher, which is the uh the the

[30:26] more important motive here, do you think

[30:28] in all this talk of military action? um

[30:31] upholding the authority of the United

[30:33] Nations and the Security Council in

[30:35] [music] this test or removing the doubts

[30:38] and uncertainties Senator Warner

[30:40] referred to that lingered after the war.

[30:42] >> Uh excuse me, the doubts and

[30:44] uncertainties about the

[30:46] >> about that that Senator Warner just said

[30:48] lingered after the Gulf War.

[30:51] >> Well, I think it's I I think both are

[30:53] extremely uh important. It is important

[30:57] particularly in the case of Saddam uh to

[31:00] uphold those uh resolutions. I

[31:02] personally feel not only in terms of

[31:04] Iraq but worldwide this intrusive

[31:07] inspection is extremely important to get

[31:10] at his uh weapons. Uh second of all uh

[31:14] it it it is becoming increasingly

[31:16] apparent that Saddam is going to

[31:18] continue this as long as he draws a

[31:20] breath and is in Iraq. There is nothing

[31:22] surprising about this. He's going to

[31:24] continue to do it. uh this happens to be

[31:26] an appropriate timing. He thinks we're

[31:28] involved in an election. He thinks

[31:29] Europe's involved in uh in the former

[31:31] Yugoslav uh republics and so on. Uh so

[31:34] this is an appropriate time to push and

[31:36] to probe. Uh but if we get past this,

[31:39] there's absolutely no doubt that he's

[31:40] going to do it again. The issue that we

[31:42] have before us is not simply how do we

[31:45] uh help remove this this this man, but

[31:48] what is the risk and the cost to us and

[31:51] to the West? Every time we talk about

[31:52] this, we need to put that risk and cost

[31:55] uh and cost uh in front of us. Now, but

[31:57] I think these are inextricably uh

[31:59] intertwined. If we get past this, Saddam

[32:01] may do it again. Now, I agree that the

[32:04] targets, however, they're selected not

[32:06] ought to not not only ought to be

[32:08] punitive with respect to understanding

[32:10] of the resolutions, but ought to weaken

[32:12] his survivability.

[32:15] uh and it it must also go along with

[32:18] continued sanctions, continued uh

[32:21] cohesiveness of the uh alliance. Uh and

[32:25] we need to have some patience because

[32:27] it's going to take time. Uh that's

[32:31] that's the only thing I can say about

[32:32] that. Bruce Vanvorst, the military came

[32:35] out of the Gulf War, American military,

[32:37] very proud of its achievement and not

[32:39] accepting that it had failed to do its

[32:43] failed to complete the job. Now, what

[32:46] how is that how is that playing out now

[32:49] in the Pentagon's considering [music] of

[32:51] what it might have to do? I mean, do

[32:53] they accept um that part of this task

[32:55] would be to complete what wasn't

[32:57] completed before or it's or do they see

[32:59] it as uh as making Saddam obey the

[33:02] United Nations? I just wonder what the

[33:03] mindset is there.

[33:04] >> Well, I think of course originally the

[33:06] mindset was that the military felt that

[33:07] it had done a very good job and done its

[33:09] duty in in the Gulf War. After all,

[33:12] technically the ouster of Saddam Hussein

[33:14] was not an objective from his job from

[33:17] Kuwait, of course, but was not an

[33:18] objective of the military operations.

[33:20] the military felt that they'd done their

[33:21] job and done a very good good job of it.

[33:24] Um, but I do think all this talk about

[33:26] military operations, CB touched on just

[33:29] one notion that's worth emphasizing and

[33:30] that is that from military standpoint or

[33:32] from President Bush's standpoint, this

[33:35] is not necessarily going to be an

[33:37] operation lightly undertaken. Uh, I can

[33:39] imagine situation first of all, we're

[33:41] going to kill civilians if we go into

[33:42] this. Uh, there'll be an international

[33:44] uproar for that. Uh I'm not fully

[33:46] confident of how much support for and

[33:49] how enduring it will be we will get in

[33:51] the United Nations. Uh there will

[33:53] probably be more of an uproar in the

[33:54] Arab world than there was last time

[33:56] around. But I can imagine situations

[33:57] where we're going to lose some aircraft.

[33:59] Uh we'll have possibly some American

[34:01] pilots paraded through the streets of uh

[34:03] Baghdad. U heavens knows what's happen

[34:06] going to happen to the UN team that's

[34:08] there now. I mean this is not a free

[34:10] shot. I think that should be clear.

[34:11] >> Yeah. Um, Lori Milroy, what you've

[34:16] recently been, you're the student of

[34:18] Saddam Hussein. Um, what and you've

[34:20] recently been there. What do you what do

[34:22] you think he's doing now? What what why

[34:25] would he push the world to this uh

[34:29] situation now?

[34:30] >> Well, on some level, Saddam Hussein and

[34:32] the reasons for his behavior are always

[34:34] inexplicable.

[34:35] But with that said, I think partly it's

[34:38] shaped by an attitude that t time is on

[34:40] his side. what was described before

[34:42] about the constant probing and he found

[34:45] a weak spot recently and he just

[34:47] continued to

[34:48] >> describe describe that weak spot he

[34:50] found. I we heard Josh Freriedman but

[34:51] what is your description of that weak

[34:53] spot that he found?

[34:54] >> Well, what what I observed when I was in

[34:56] northern Iraq for example, what um two

[34:59] things impressed me. One was the

[35:01] effectiveness of the Kurdish

[35:02] administration. They really are doing a

[35:05] good job running their own affairs

[35:07] without fighting, keeping order, doing

[35:09] in fact what Bush wanted, having

[35:12] achieved a uh successful transition of

[35:14] authority to a stable regime. But it was

[35:17] so fragile because it all depends on the

[35:19] Turkish parliament every 6 months uh

[35:22] renewing uh the Allied basing agreement.

[35:24] And that's too fragile a basis for the

[35:26] survival of the people. Plus which

[35:29] there's a problem that Saddam has now

[35:30] got twothirds of his army concisrated in

[35:32] northern Iraq. It's been there for a

[35:34] while and there is some apprehension

[35:37] that if Saddam were really bent and

[35:39] determined on recovering that territory,

[35:41] he might be able to do it despite the

[35:43] allied air umbrella. So that's just one

[35:45] example of what I saw. That was in late

[35:47] June where there was weakness in the um

[35:51] international attitude towards the

[35:53] regime that's been imposed on Iraq. And

[35:55] then what followed was um the car

[35:58] bombing of Mrs. Mitron's motorcade, a

[36:01] grenade thrown at a UN guards in their

[36:04] car, the murder of a uh Fijian guard

[36:07] while he slept, and that didn't provoke

[36:10] much comment from Washington until the

[36:12] standoff at the agricultural ministry

[36:14] became very acute. And that's an example

[36:15] of how that probing was going on and on

[36:17] and on. There was very little response

[36:20] to it.

[36:20] >> Yeah. What has uh suddenly galvanized

[36:23] everybody into action now, do you think,

[36:25] and and stiffened everybody's senus on

[36:27] this? Well,

[36:29] >> I I was I was asking Josh Freriedman. I

[36:30] I'll come back to you in a moment. I was

[36:32] just asking Josh Freriedman.

[36:33] >> Actually, I'd welcome a moment to think

[36:35] about I'm trying to remember what the

[36:37] the uh the thing was, but it I think it

[36:40] just couldn't be shoved under the uh rug

[36:42] anymore because uh we were seeing

[36:44] pictures on television of uh people with

[36:47] shish kekab skewers and dolls of uh Bush

[36:50] and uh the TV as usual lately

[36:54] >> the TV images

[36:56] pushed it to the forefront and now they

[36:59] have to draw the line otherwise uh the

[37:03] >> in other words Saddam has made very very

[37:05] obvious that he's defying the United

[37:07] Nations and the rest of the world and uh

[37:09] and the United Nations and the United

[37:12] States either do something about it or

[37:15] the whole new world order is uh is

[37:17] weakened.

[37:17] >> Yeah. Now if it goes on and Bush my own

[37:21] feeling as a conjecture is in the White

[37:23] House we must know if they don't act

[37:25] quickly then all sorts of people are

[37:27] going to pop up and say I I have a

[37:29] solution and the solution could be

[37:30] anything from all right let's give them

[37:32] a break let's weaken these sanctions

[37:33] let's make a compromise let's not be

[37:35] such bad guys to whatever and then uh

[37:38] the US hedgeimony at the UN begins to

[37:40] crumble and in an election year this is

[37:42] the last thing that the president needs

[37:44] because other problems will come to

[37:46] >> Phoebe Mr. Is that right? After all this

[37:49] talk of military action, if it isn't

[37:50] isn't used quickly, there were a lot of

[37:52] people, as happened uh before the Gulf

[37:55] War, wanting to temporize, ask for

[37:57] compromises, give time, so on. If it has

[38:01] to be done, does it have to be done

[38:02] quickly?

[38:03] >> Uh well, f first of all, let us let us

[38:05] be clear uh about the issue. We have we

[38:07] have in a sense given Saddam an

[38:09] ultimatum. he must allow this inspection

[38:11] or now if in fact Saddam allows that

[38:14] inspection if he backs down as in fact

[38:17] he has done before uh then at this

[38:20] particular juncture we should not use

[38:22] the military action but uh if he doesn't

[38:26] yes we must act.

[38:28] >> Yeah. Bruce Vanvorst. Um, is this a um,

[38:33] if if President Bush is considering all

[38:35] this at Camp David [music] this weekend,

[38:37] is this a very very awkward thing for

[38:40] him to be thinking or are is it

[38:42] something that can be quite easily

[38:44] decided? And is it something the US can

[38:46] do by itself?

[38:48] >> Uh, definitely not something we should

[38:50] be doing on ourselves and that's why

[38:52] they've been talking about putting

[38:53] together at least the British and the

[38:55] French coalition with us. But but if all

[38:58] things go well, they would certainly

[38:59] like to get security council support for

[39:00] it as well. This is not really something

[39:02] the US should get out ahead on and also

[39:04] particularly in election year. I don't

[39:06] see any support at all in the American

[39:08] people among the American people for

[39:10] going alone on this. Um one of the worst

[39:12] things that could happen after all this

[39:14] saber rattling in the last couple of

[39:15] days is that Saddam in fact backs down

[39:18] in this particular time and he leaves us

[39:20] there with all this tension, all this

[39:22] jinninging up of enthusiasm and then we

[39:24] have to maintain this for a while. It's

[39:25] not an easy uh decision for Bush to make

[39:28] because it cuts, as I suggested earlier,

[39:29] if we take some losses, if this has to

[39:31] be a prolonged conflict, uh it could

[39:34] become very uncomfortable for him and it

[39:35] could distract a lot from the American

[39:38] domestic election campaign.

[39:39] >> Well, Bruce Vanvor, Phoebe Maher, uh

[39:41] Lauri Milroy, and Josh Freriedman. Thank

[39:43] you all.

[39:46] >> Still to come on the NewsHour tonight,

[39:48] Gergen and Shields and a Roger Rosenblad

[39:51] essay.

[40:00] It is in fact Friday night and that

[40:02] means Gergen and Shields, our political

[40:04] analysis team of David Gurgen, editor at

[40:06] large of US News and World Report and

[40:08] syndicated columnist Mark Shields.

[40:11] David, first on what do you think would

[40:13] be the domestic political fallout from

[40:15] the US military action against Saddam

[40:16] Hussein?

[40:17] >> Jim, it could be a substantial plus for

[40:19] the president if he prepares the public

[40:22] for action. I don't think most Americans

[40:24] understand what this is all about right

[40:26] now and they find it fairly confusing.

[40:28] And secondly, if it's done surgically

[40:30] and quickly and successfully if it drags

[40:32] on, the previous uh guests indicated

[40:35] this might be a very involved problem.

[40:37] >> Bruce Vanour said it could go on.

[40:39] >> If it goes on and on, I think that

[40:40] becomes more difficult, more problematic

[40:42] for the president. It also makes it

[40:43] frankly more difficult to move Jim Baker

[40:44] from the State Department to the White

[40:46] House. You know who who's running the

[40:48] shop? I mean Dick Cheney obviously and

[40:49] Coen Powell can do that but it's going

[40:51] to require a lot of diplomacy as well.

[40:52] >> Mark, what do you think?

[40:53] >> I I think David's right. I think there's

[40:54] a certain political discounting that

[40:56] goes on uh because of the numbers, two

[40:59] sets of numbers. One, the numbers in the

[41:00] calendar and the numbers in the polls.

[41:02] And I [music] think the president the

[41:04] obligation then and the burden of the

[41:05] president to really make the case that

[41:07] this action is totally divorced from any

[41:10] political considerations and is in the

[41:11] national interest compellingly to only

[41:13] alternative. Uh he really I think has a

[41:16] has a grave responsibility. But there's

[41:18] no sure thing that this would help him.

[41:20] Uh is it? I mean,

[41:22] >> well, if you listen to what what Phoebe

[41:23] Moore and Bruce Van Bource said that

[41:24] there there is no quick surgical strike.

[41:27] This isn't going to be done with with

[41:29] two airplanes and a couple of bombs.

[41:31] Then that is not necessarily a good

[41:33] thing politically for the president.

[41:34] >> All wars are popular for the first 30

[41:36] days, I think, as somebody once said.

[41:39] And I think there is a rallying, a

[41:40] natural rallying the president in a time

[41:42] of crisis. If the if there is genuine

[41:44] consensus and agreement upon that

[41:46] crisis, there's two tests that any

[41:48] Democrat seeking the presidency must

[41:50] pass, has to pass. Only a Democrat can

[41:53] pass and only a Democrat subjected to.

[41:55] First of all, that that Democratic

[41:57] nominee shares and values and the same

[42:01] values that most Americans cherish,

[42:03] religion, patriotism, family. Second,

[42:05] that that Democrat is believable as

[42:07] commander-in-chief. Uh, and I think this

[42:10] is an area where that where the

[42:11] Republicans understandably and

[42:13] legitimately think they have a greater

[42:14] advantage over Bill Clinton.

[42:16] >> And Clinton has already said that uh

[42:19] he's he's pretty much said what the

[42:20] president has said that he was smart to

[42:22] do that.

[42:23] >> We're all united on this. We're all

[42:24] united. Sit down saying get the message.

[42:26] We Americans are all together. But Jim,

[42:28] you know, another part of this, not many

[42:29] people over in the State Department will

[42:31] want to talk about this, but you can bet

[42:32] that there are people over at the

[42:34] campaign who hope that if if we go in

[42:36] with military uh effort that one or two

[42:39] of those bombs are going to knock Saddam

[42:41] Hussein out of power. Now, they would

[42:42] love to see that. Remember, just as we

[42:43] went into Libya under Reagan and if we

[42:46] managed to hit, nobody said quite how we

[42:48] did it or why we did it. Nobody wanted

[42:49] to say we were going after him, but we

[42:50] did manage to hit Moar Gaddafi's house.

[42:53] Hey, we didn't take him out, but

[42:54] >> Well, that would be a political plus if

[42:56] that

[42:56] >> Absolutely.

[42:57] >> No matter how many bombs were dropped,

[42:58] if one of them fell on the right place,

[43:00] the right person. All right. You

[43:01] mentioned, David, uh the uh the baker

[43:04] coming to the White House. That is one

[43:06] of many rumors. Let's start at that at

[43:08] at the top and move down. Uh the biggest

[43:10] rumor that's been going around is that

[43:13] uh that President Bush is going to drop

[43:15] Vice President Quail from the ticket.

[43:16] What's the status of that rumor as we

[43:18] speak tonight?

[43:19] >> Well, the president has discounted it.

[43:21] uh the vice president has discounted it,

[43:23] but the persistence of the rumor means

[43:26] until the president actually puts him on

[43:28] the ticket and he's nominated and

[43:29] accepts it, it's going to be dogging the

[43:32] Bush campaign. In other words, they're

[43:33] going to have three weeks of this now.

[43:35] Uh I think in fact that the president

[43:37] probably is going to need a stronger

[43:38] statement. But there are persistent

[43:39] rumors from people on the fringes of the

[43:41] campaign even tonight, Jim, uh that the

[43:44] that the administration is looking

[43:45] around trying to figure out whether

[43:46] would Dick Cheney help the ticket a lot

[43:48] would give them 10 points against

[43:50] Clinton Gore and uh there, you know, the

[43:52] rumors are all sorts of rumors like

[43:53] that. And I think that that's it's part

[43:55] of the this is a real problem for the

[43:57] president now because they're

[43:58] floundering badly as a campaign. They're

[44:00] on the defensive. They can't seem to get

[44:01] started. And these rumors only delay the

[44:04] start of a serious campaign.

[44:06] >> But Mark, all of this quail talk is

[44:08] based on the assumption that getting rid

[44:12] of quail would be a plus for the

[44:14] president. Is that a false assumption or

[44:16] is that a correct assumption? It's a

[44:17] false assumption. Bill Bennett, the

[44:19] former drugs are secretary of education,

[44:22] put it well. He said quail is not the

[44:24] problem. Quail was there when George

[44:26] Bush was at 85%. The problem is that the

[44:29] president has not made the case for the

[44:32] difference that a second term would be

[44:34] better than the first term. And I think

[44:36] that's it. I I think that there's a need

[44:38] for George Bush to show change. He's not

[44:40] going to change policies. Uh he doesn't

[44:42] have any dramatic initiatives that he's

[44:45] going to propose. He can't change

[44:47] history. He can't change his record. He

[44:49] can't change himself. So he changes

[44:51] personnel. Uh I the question of Jim

[44:54] Baker coming over. Jim, uh, if he

[44:56] doesn't come at this point, morale,

[44:58] which is almost an historic low at the

[45:00] Bush campaign, would go through the

[45:02] floor. I mean, for some reason, he

[45:03] didn't stop.

[45:04] >> Do you agree? He's got to come now.

[45:06] That's no longer a rumor or even

[45:07] speculation.

[45:08] >> I think I think he has no choice but to

[45:09] come now because I and I think he'll

[45:12] bring strength to the campaign. I think

[45:14] there there's some strong pluses to Jim

[45:16] Baker coming into the Bush entourage. He

[45:18] he will be the first person who can who

[45:20] can talk shoulder-to-shoulder with the

[45:21] president. There is nobody else in that

[45:23] group now who can go to the president

[45:24] and say, "Mr. President, we've got this

[45:26] little screwed up now. We need to do

[45:27] this, this, and this." And George Bush

[45:28] will listen to him and respect him for

[45:29] it. There's no one else of that stature

[45:31] and that history with George Bush, and

[45:33] that's a plus. He would bring some real

[45:35] snap to the campaign organization. There

[45:37] is no one at the top now who who

[45:38] intimidates

[45:40] >> some of the younger people in the

[45:41] campaign and gets things done. I think

[45:42] that's all very strong. I think he could

[45:44] come in. The role I see him playing is

[45:46] not that of running the campaign, not

[45:47] that of being chief of staff. It's it's

[45:49] it's essentially a deputy president's

[45:51] role. It is someone who will oversee the

[45:53] oversee the campaign.

[45:54] >> I mean the whole the whole smear.

[45:56] >> I mean you mean

[45:57] >> Jim I think I think he's going to

[45:58] oversee the campaign.

[46:00] >> He's going to oversee a a the

[46:03] formulation of an economic program not

[46:05] only for this campaign but for the

[46:06] second term. And I think he has no

[46:08] choice but to remain involved in foreign

[46:10] affairs. I think he's I think he's got

[46:12] to continue that. They need some things

[46:13] from him in the next 90 days to 100

[46:15] days. You can't let the Middle East

[46:17] peace [music] talks just, you know, go

[46:19] by the boards. He's going to have to

[46:20] keep his hand out. I don't see how he

[46:21] can avoid that.

[46:22] >> Mark, deputy president. I might as well

[46:26] drop the deputy prefix. I mean, this

[46:28] this guy's got the full plate that

[46:29] you're describing. Jim Baker is a

[46:32] fascinating guy. I mean, he really The

[46:34] only thing I can compare him to is is

[46:35] probably Bob Strauss on the Democratic

[46:37] side. He is a fellow who gets

[46:39] universally positive. Both from Texas,

[46:42] both great schmoozes with the press.

[46:43] Both bright and good friends. and and

[46:46] somehow they both have teflon uh I mean

[46:50] Jim Baker in 1988 went through that

[46:52] campaign uh campaign which is generally

[46:55] regarded as as a meanspirited

[46:58] vicious campaign Willie Horton pledge of

[47:00] allegiance flag factories empty banal

[47:03] and who gets blame for it Roger Als the

[47:05] heavy the media guy the late at water

[47:07] was a hitman but Jim Baker he was a

[47:10] genius manager who me that's right

[47:12] >> he didn't have his fingers on it

[47:14] >> so I want to watch the teflon this time

[47:15] cuz he's coming over. If he's coming

[47:17] over, I mean, how is it going to be a

[47:18] distancing between this campaign and Jim

[47:20] Baker's reputation? So, I was in a

[47:22] conversation with somebody the other day

[47:23] go, "Well, why would Jim Baker do this?"

[47:25] And I realized Jim B Jim Baker has no

[47:27] choice. I mean, if he he if Bush does

[47:30] not win, he's out of a job anyhow, so he

[47:32] might as well come and and try to save

[47:34] the thing.

[47:34] >> And he resigned. And let's remember, he

[47:36] did resign from the Treasury four years

[47:37] ago to come in and work on the campaign.

[47:39] So, I think he's I think he's he doesn't

[47:41] want to do this. Just a few months ago,

[47:42] he was telling everybody this wasn't

[47:43] going to happen. You believe that? that

[47:45] he didn't want to do this.

[47:46] >> Oh, I absolutely believe it, Jim. I

[47:48] think it's only a measure of how much

[47:49] things have changed and how much how

[47:51] deep a hole they're in that they want

[47:52] him in there. The president didn't want

[47:53] him in there. He didn't really want Jim

[47:55] Baker for the very reason we're talking

[47:57] about. I mean, you know, he faces the

[47:59] danger with with Jim Baker there. The

[48:02] president people are going to say,

[48:02] "Well, Jim Baker can fix all these

[48:04] problems. Why isn't why isn't he the

[48:05] candidate?" And and Jim Baker when he

[48:07] did resign from the Treasury four years

[48:09] ago, remember was at the Treasury,

[48:11] remember was under his his ages savings

[48:14] and loans.

[48:15] >> Oh

[48:15] >> yeah. A lot of people blame the savings

[48:16] and loans. Nobody blames the Teflon

[48:18] secretary of the Treasury.

[48:19] >> Jim Baker has a wonderful capacity if

[48:22] there's an accident somewhere. He's not

[48:23] within 3 miles. He's very very

[48:25] >> good. But isn't he one of the rare

[48:28] people in Washington, at least right

[48:31] now, that when you say his name,

[48:33] competent is also a word that

[48:35] immediately flies to mind,

[48:36] >> no matter what your

[48:37] >> pragmatic, non ideological compet.

[48:42] >> Yes. And I think that if he were there,

[48:43] he could get some things done. Jim, they

[48:45] would very much like to get an economic

[48:46] package through this Congress before the

[48:48] election. A scaled down economic

[48:49] package. change a few of the elements,

[48:51] leave off capital gains, let the

[48:53] Democrats give up on on raising taxes,

[48:55] but get some of the other elements, get

[48:57] a and get a jobs component, add some

[48:58] things in there, enrich the package. Jim

[49:00] Baker can deliver that. Get an agreement

[49:02] with Mexico on trade before the

[49:04] election. Jim Baker can working with

[49:05] Carly Hills can deliver that. Maybe get

[49:07] an agreement on on on general trade, the

[49:09] GAT agreement. Maybe maybe get a Middle

[49:11] East agreement. There are a lot of

[49:12] things he could help to deliver.

[49:13] >> Sounds like being president to you,

[49:15] right, Mark?

[49:15] >> It does sound like being president to

[49:17] me. We're going to talk about Bill

[49:18] Clinton. Huh? I mean, speaking of, you

[49:20] know, I mean, they're going to get any

[49:21] time for the Democrats [laughter] this

[49:22] week,

[49:23] >> right? In fact, Bill Clinton and Al Gore

[49:26] got on some buses and pulled off an

[49:28] amazing thing. Did they not, Mark? They

[49:30] did, Jim. You know, it was it was a

[49:32] perfect counterpoint to at a time when

[49:34] the president and the White House are

[49:36] accused of seen by many as being out of

[49:38] touch, remote, not understanding to get

[49:41] out there with real people, uh, real

[49:43] crowds in real places in America and it

[49:46] really worked for them. I think that the

[49:47] vitality of the energy quite well a tan

[49:51] I mean I was astounded I mean they had

[49:53] 25,000 people in St. Lewis in July. Now,

[49:57] David can tell you

[49:57] >> and they came late. They showed up late.

[49:59] >> And build That's right. And building a

[50:00] crowd is not an easy thing to do in

[50:02] American politics. I mean,

[50:03] >> not in the television age.

[50:04] >> Not in the television age. It really

[50:06] isn't. And and that's an October crowd.

[50:08] That is an October crowd to get 25,000

[50:10] people. They put this thing together on

[50:12] the fly. This was not planned for weeks

[50:14] and and months or anything. There's a

[50:16] They've touched something genuine out

[50:17] there. They had the best week any

[50:19] Democrats have had after a convention

[50:22] [music] probably in in a quarter

[50:24] century. best I've ever seen.

[50:25] >> And the symbolism of of going on buses

[50:27] and going into small towns and going

[50:29] into the heartland of the country where

[50:31] the Democrats are normally not strong.

[50:33] >> Yeah. I was thinking about you this week

[50:34] because you know you have more the

[50:35] biggest bus collection of anybody in the

[50:37] world and somehow they went one up on

[50:38] you this week on buses. You know they

[50:40] managed to bring that back and uh but

[50:42] I'll tell you something you know I think

[50:43] was working for him was not only a good

[50:44] convention but somehow it's the

[50:46] combination of the two people together

[50:48] that's has been very magical. So the you

[50:50] know the whole is greater than the sum

[50:52] of the parts when when these when

[50:54] Clinton and Gore campaign together

[50:56] >> shield each one makes the other one look

[50:58] better

[50:59] >> because they travel together.

[51:00] >> The other thing I think that's been

[51:01] overlooked is that at a time when

[51:03] politics has turned brutishly and cruy

[51:06] negative. This was fun. They were having

[51:08] fun out there. People were having fun

[51:10] and and Gore and Clinton were having

[51:11] fun.

[51:12] >> And they dominated the nightly news

[51:14] broadcast. They dominated the front

[51:16] pages of the newspapers. And that's very

[51:18] unusual after

[51:19] >> they've had a role now for what three

[51:20] and a half weeks, four weeks, right from

[51:22] the time he had his economic package. He

[51:23] announced Al Gore, the Democratic

[51:24] convention and this week. They've been

[51:26] on a tremendous role.

[51:27] >> And to contrast that with all the things

[51:28] we were talking about a moment ago about

[51:30] the Bush Quail campaign, it's Yeah, it's

[51:33] been a winner.

[51:33] >> Will the 25,000 be there in October?

[51:35] That's the big question.

[51:36] >> Yeah, exactly. Gentlemen, thank you both

[51:38] very much.

[51:43] >> [music]

[51:49] >> Finally tonight, essayist Roger

[51:51] Rosenblad has some thoughts about the

[51:53] non-candidacy of Ross Perau.

[51:55] >> You got to know when

[51:59] [music]

[52:00] to fold them.

[52:01] >> You got to know when to hold them. Know

[52:03] when to fold them. But when you fold

[52:05] them too soon, you probably ought not to

[52:07] be running for president.

[52:09] That may not constitute everything

[52:11] America learned from the self-propelled

[52:13] rise and self-inflicted fall of H. Ross

[52:16] Perau, but his brief candidacy offers an

[52:19] interesting lesson in the art of

[52:20] quitting. At least it's an art if you

[52:23] don't do it right. Elliot Richardson

[52:26] quit the Nixon administration and the

[52:28] people cheered an act of conscience.

[52:30] Nixon quit his own administration and

[52:32] the people cheered an act of expediency.

[52:35] >> So therefore, I will not. When Ross

[52:37] Perau threw in his towel, however, most

[52:39] everyone got sore, including those who

[52:42] never wanted Perau to be president in

[52:43] the first place.

[52:45] >> Why is that?

[52:47] >> Two reasons, I think, lie behind the

[52:49] people's anger with Perau. The first,

[52:52] the one most frequently mentioned, has

[52:54] to do with his leaving supporters in the

[52:56] lurch. Whatever else the thousands who

[52:58] volunteered their hours and dollars to

[53:00] Perau saw in their man, it surely was

[53:03] not someone who would leave them and

[53:04] their dreams high and dry.

[53:07] All those tears and fallen faces. If you

[53:10] bid yourself as Gary Cooper, you really

[53:13] ought not to leave town at 9:30 a.m. But

[53:15] there's another reason folks are ticked

[53:17] off at Perau. And this one has to do

[53:19] with playing by the rules of the game.

[53:22] Every game goes a certain distance. And

[53:24] if politics is not as elegantly designed

[53:26] as, say, baseball, still fans hold the

[53:29] assumption that once committed, you

[53:30] stick around till the crowd is satisfied

[53:33] it has seen everything played out.

[53:36] I doubt if baseball would have become

[53:37] the national pastime if a club that

[53:40] found itself losing in the fourth inning

[53:42] could, if it chose, pack up and clear

[53:44] out. Oh, you didn't tell us we could

[53:46] lose.

[53:48] Fans don't like tennis players who

[53:49] forfeit matches without good reason.

[53:52] Fans did not like it when Roberto Duran

[53:54] suddenly raised his arms and surrendered

[53:56] to Sugar Ray Leonard. No MS. No M.

[54:00] The people expect Moss from presidential

[54:02] candidates. If there's no must, there's

[54:05] no mñana.

[54:07] I don't want to make this quitting

[54:09] business seem too cut and dried. It must

[54:11] be hell running for president with the

[54:14] money problems and the travel weariness

[54:16] and the snoops hanging outside one's

[54:18] door like a ring of jackals.

[54:20] Some candidates drop out too soon, some

[54:23] not soon enough. For the latter,

[54:25] however, there is always a kind of

[54:27] submerged respect, even when persistence

[54:30] seems indistinguishable from madness.

[54:33] Jerry Brown seemed a little nuts when

[54:35] during the Democratic convention he

[54:37] clung like moss and refused to drop.

[54:40] Presidential elections are in fact more

[54:42] known for persistence than quitters. Who

[54:46] knows how many times Gus Hall ran for

[54:48] nothing on the communist ticket or

[54:50] Harold Stassen. It was hard to think of

[54:52] an election without him. I don't know if

[54:55] Gene McCarthy has ever stopped running

[54:57] for president. But then again, I'm not

[54:59] quite sure if he ever started.

[55:02] Dreamers and bullheads and evangelists

[55:05] all but not quitters. It's hard to

[55:07] salute a quitter.

[55:09] >> I have concluded that we cannot win in

[55:11] November.

[55:12] >> Pero said he quit on principle. Some

[55:15] people do that and it's fine. Bosclav

[55:18] Havl just announced his resignation from

[55:20] the presidency of Czechoslovakia on

[55:22] principle. And since Havl has

[55:24] established himself as a man of

[55:26] principle, one can honor his decision.

[55:29] But no one has yet understood the

[55:30] principle on which Ross Perau based his

[55:32] decision. Unless of course it was the

[55:36] principle that says if at some point you

[55:39] dimly suspect you won't succeed, give

[55:42] up. Never give in. Never give in. Never.

[55:47] Never. Never. I'm Roger Rosenblat.

[55:54] Again,

[55:59] the main story of this Friday was the

[56:01] standoff with Iraq. The US and its

[56:03] allies are said to be preparing an

[56:04] ultimatum that Baghdad comply with the

[56:07] Gulf War ceasefire terms or face a

[56:09] military strike. Iraq's UN ambassador

[56:12] said he believed his government would

[56:13] give a positive [music] response to a

[56:15] new offer to end the impass. He said

[56:17] that response would come from Baghdad in

[56:19] less than 24 hours. Good night, Jim.

[56:22] >> Good night, Robin. We'll see you on

[56:23] Monday night with a detailed look at

[56:25] what Ross Perau had in mind for the US

[56:27] economy. Have a nice weekend. I'm Jim

[56:29] Lara. Thank you and good night.

[56:34] >> Part of helping the world live and

[56:35] communicate better is keeping it well

[56:38] informed.

[56:40] That's why funding for the McNeel Lair

[56:42] NewsHour is provided by AT&T

[56:47] and by PepsiCo.

[56:53] >> [music]

[56:55] >> Pepsi

[56:57] and by the Corporation for Public

[56:59] Broadcasting and viewers like you.

[57:04] Tonight at 11 [music] on OPB, States of

[57:07] Mind examines the faceoff between the

[57:10] logging industry and environmentalists

[57:12] as it affects [music] Oregon families in

[57:15] Mill City.

[57:18] >> [music]

[57:25] [music]

[57:31] >> Video cassettes of the McNeeler NewsHour

[57:33] are available from PBS video. Call

[57:36] 1-800328

[57:38] PBS1.

[57:45] This is [music] PBS.

[57:58] >> [music]

[58:07] >> are working frantically to control. So

[58:09] join us for all the news at 11.

[58:12] >> And finally this afternoon, we never

[58:14] know what we'll hear when we ask

[58:15] reporter at large Ray Summers, "What

[58:17] have you seen recently?"

[58:19] >> That's like asking a relative if you

[58:20] could see the pictures he took on his

[58:22] last vacation.

[58:24] >> This is where everything is so simple.

[58:26] So unpretentious. Nothing fancy here.

[58:29] Not even names. Good old Lake Bob. This

[58:33] fellow would never get a job naming

[58:35] subdivisions.

[58:37] We are fans of interesting signs.

[58:40] Anatone Washington has a favorite. They

[58:42] are a candid group in Anatone. As you

[58:44] can see, there are more horses than

[58:47] cats, more cats than dogs. And if you

[58:49] add up all the horses and the cats and

[58:51] the dogs, it equals exactly the number

[58:54] of people. strange coincidence. Which

[58:57] brings us to the case of the 35 mph

[59:00] signs. Out here in a county which must

[59:03] be very law-abiding, a road winds off to

[59:06] the distance. A 35 mph road. It would be

[59:10] my guess that not everyone obeys the

[59:12] sign. Yes, that would be my guess. Sure

[59:16] enough, a few miles along that road,

[59:18] another sign. A question, though. How do

[59:21] you reduce a speed and still have the

[59:24] same speed? Perplexing, isn't it?

[59:29] And while we are talking rate of travel,

[59:32] how fast do you think this stream's

[59:34] flowing?

[59:36] Well, there is your answer. You didn't

[59:38] know officials were setting speed limits

[59:40] for the water, rivers, and streams.

[59:44] Race summers had lost

[59:47] read where a resident of a southwestern

[59:48] town recently named the new bridge Bob.

[59:52] Thought it was read and it would attract

[59:54] tourists.

[59:55] >> Robert for the long name.

[59:57] >> Short bridge though. I think it was Bob.

[59:59] >> Oh, well, there's nothing much to say

[60:01] after a story such as that. Maybe we

[60:03] won't be so curious next [music] time.

[60:05] >> You're always curious when it's a Ray

[60:06] Summers report. We'll see you at 11.

[60:08] >> Byebye.

[60:10] >> [music]