MSNBC - Election Day 2006 - 3 p.m. (E)

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[0:00] to my pocket.

[0:12] I'm Joe Scar Bro and welcome to

[0:13] Battleground America. You're watching

[0:15] MSNBC's continuing allout coverage of

[0:18] Decision 2006. Right now, Americans

[0:21] across the country are taking [music]

[0:23] part in the midterm elections that could

[0:25] change the balance of power in

[0:26] Washington. And with just hours to go

[0:28] before the polls start closing, problems

[0:31] and long lines are cropping up at polls

[0:34] nationwide. Now, one dramatic race is

[0:37] [music] for the Senate. And it's, of

[0:39] course, one of the most dramatic races

[0:41] for the Senate, and control of [music]

[0:42] the Senate's taking place in the state

[0:44] of Tennessee. Republican Bob Corker has

[0:47] been [music] battling Democratic

[0:48] Congressman Harold Ford Jr. for that

[0:50] seat has been held by Majority Leader

[0:52] Bill Frist. And it's been one of the

[0:54] most heated campaigns of this entire

[0:56] election season. Not long ago, I got the

[0:59] chance to check in with my old friend

[1:00] and colleague from our days together in

[1:02] Congress, Harold Ford. And I asked

[1:04] Harold how things were going to turn out

[1:06] for him.

[1:08] We feel good about it for two reasons.

[1:10] The the desire and appetite for change

[1:12] is strong here, but there's a greater

[1:14] appetite here. There's an appetite for

[1:16] government working again and for results

[1:18] being delivered to just everyday

[1:20] hardworking people. be it a minimum wage

[1:22] increase, be it a way to lower health

[1:24] costs, or even a better strategy on the

[1:26] ground in Iraq, people aren't looking

[1:27] for Democrats or Republicans. They're

[1:29] looking for leaders. And we've organized

[1:31] our campaign around that premise of

[1:33] solving problems, of answering

[1:34] questions, and taken our campaign to any

[1:37] part of this state, uh to any arena, any

[1:39] sphere, any restaurant, any club, uh any

[1:43] organization that would invite us. And

[1:45] here we are 7 hours before polls close.

[1:47] This race is a dead heat. It boils down

[1:49] to turnout. and we feel very good about

[1:51] our operation.

[1:52] >> Well, you know, Harold, when people ask

[1:53] me throughout the course of your

[1:54] campaign if you were really that

[1:56] moderate or if you were just trying to

[1:58] play to Tennessee voters, I talked about

[2:00] the time you got me in big trouble on

[2:02] the education committee because you were

[2:03] always coming up with bills that reached

[2:05] across party lines and you went first to

[2:08] Republicans. Of course, that goes

[2:10] against Coral Ro strategy. He believes

[2:12] America is divided. He wants to get his

[2:14] base out. Are you finding that there are

[2:16] disaffected voters in the middle who

[2:18] want to vote for people like you?

[2:20] >> There are a lot of Republicans all

[2:22] across this state who are not only

[2:23] lining up with us, but visibly and

[2:26] forcibly working with us. I say forcibly

[2:28] because they're working to try to change

[2:30] the mind and many of their Republican

[2:32] friends. Like I said, we've organized

[2:34] this campaign around a leadership

[2:35] principle. Hadn't been a Democrat

[2:37] Democrat Democrat principle, but we

[2:39] believe that Washington deserves some

[2:40] better leadership, including Tennessee.

[2:42] And I think that's why we're going to

[2:44] win. And I think the polls that have

[2:45] been run really haven't factored in the

[2:47] number of people that voted early in

[2:49] this state. Almost 870,000

[2:51] people voted early. 867 to be exact. We

[2:54] feel good about our performance there.

[2:56] Where I'm from in Memphis, uh, in West

[2:58] Tennessee, uh, voter turnout was up 80%

[3:01] over what it was 2 years ago. And I just

[3:03] don't believe those people were rushing

[3:04] to the polls to vote for the status quo.

[3:06] They were voting for leadership and they

[3:08] were voting for change. So, we feel good

[3:10] about where we are. We got seven more

[3:11] hours to go. we're going to leave here

[3:12] and not let up until the last poll

[3:14] closes here.

[3:15] >> And when you break those numbers down,

[3:16] you're talking about 40% of the voters

[3:19] in the volunteer state have already come

[3:20] out. They've already cast their votes. A

[3:23] lot of them casting votes before Corker

[3:25] had sort of that lastm minute surge,

[3:27] which you've now answered. Uh do you

[3:29] think there's enough early voters out

[3:31] there to carry you over the top tonight?

[3:34] I think there are enough voters period

[3:36] in this state who want change, who know

[3:37] we can be better and who are not going

[3:39] to fall for the smut and the sleas and

[3:41] the slime that nationally I think

[3:43] unfortunately the Republican National

[3:45] Committee tried to pour on us here in

[3:46] this state. They just underestimated our

[3:48] decency and goodness here. We still have

[3:50] 7 hours to go, but I got to tell you, I

[3:52] feel real good as I'm about to eat this

[3:53] cheeseburger and get on out of here and

[3:54] get back campaigning uh across the state

[3:57] here at the Little Rebel.

[3:58] >> Well, that's great. You talk about the

[3:59] RNC ads and you know the first time I

[4:01] saw that ad of that woman saying, "Hey,

[4:03] call me Harold." I just I laughed

[4:06] because it was so obviously a throwback

[4:09] to unfortunately a lot of things you

[4:12] heard from in Northwest Florida from the

[4:14] clan who would say, "Watch out uh white

[4:17] men. If you get black men out on the

[4:19] streets, they're going to prey on your

[4:21] women." I can't believe that the RNC

[4:25] actually ran that ad, first of all, and

[4:27] secondly, I can't believe that it didn't

[4:29] offend a great number of voters in

[4:31] Tennessee. Certainly offended me as a

[4:33] Republican. And uh did you [music] what

[4:35] what's been the response to that ad? And

[4:37] do you think in the end that sleazy

[4:39] attack actually helped you?

[4:42] >> Well, 74% of people that responded and

[4:44] take the average of three or four polls

[4:46] all said they disapprove of the ad here

[4:47] in Tennessee. I don't know if the ad had

[4:49] a racial dimension to it or not, but I

[4:51] do know this, it was just inappropriate.

[4:52] It was sleazy. It was slimy. People

[4:54] watched it while they were trying to sit

[4:56] at home with their children and have

[4:57] dinner and have family time, and it just

[4:59] wasn't the right thing to do. Second ad

[5:01] lied on my position on guns. It lied on

[5:03] my position on abortion. It lied on my

[5:05] position on terrorism. And so, they

[5:06] tried to be slick and they tried to be

[5:08] smooth. The things they've tried to

[5:10] accuse me of, that's exactly what they

[5:11] were trying to achieve in that ad. And

[5:13] we're going to find out in the next

[5:14] seven hours just how much people in this

[5:16] state have rejected that. One of the

[5:18] other winners tonight, I think after we

[5:19] win, will be the fact that we in

[5:22] Tennessee will nail or put one of the

[5:24] nails in that coffin. It says that

[5:25] negative campaigning, deceitful

[5:27] campaigning, dishonest campaigning ought

[5:29] to come to an end. People ought to

[5:31] debate the issues, focus on the

[5:32] substance, and deal with the things that

[5:34] people have to confront in their

[5:35] day-to-day lives. That's what that's the

[5:37] other reason I'm so excited about what's

[5:39] going to happen here in Tennessee in the

[5:40] next seven, eight hours. And finally,

[5:41] Harold, uh, another thing that excited

[5:43] me about your campaign, as I've said all

[5:45] along in the tank for you, is you were

[5:48] unlike most Democrats that I know in

[5:51] Washington, that I've known in Congress,

[5:52] that I've seen on the national stage,

[5:54] you're not afraid to say the word God.

[5:57] I've always said if Democrats were not

[6:00] ashamed of their faith or of their

[6:02] religion, uh, then they'd do much better

[6:04] uh, with with voters who again don't

[6:06] want it shoved down their throat. They

[6:08] don't want Ted Haggard preaching at

[6:09] them, but at the same time, they want to

[6:11] know that faith is important in the

[6:13] lives of their elected officials. Was

[6:16] that a tough decision for you to make?

[6:17] Did you have a lot of pressure from the

[6:19] Democratic uh some Democratic

[6:21] consultants not to sit in the church and

[6:23] actually talk about how important faith

[6:24] was in your life?

[6:27] >> Not really. Largely because, you know,

[6:29] I'm a co-founder along with Mark Green

[6:31] of the Faith Bates Caucus in the

[6:32] Congress. So, this has never been an

[6:34] issue for me talking about my faith and

[6:36] talking about how I love Jesus. Uh, I

[6:38] was I would feel uncomfortable if I

[6:40] couldn't talk about it. Um, so it's

[6:42] never been an issue for me and and

[6:44] frankly on paper this race doesn't make

[6:46] a lot of sense to a lot of people. But

[6:48] we've had a a great campaign manager. I

[6:50] have a great campaign chairman. But the

[6:52] real guiding force in this campaign has

[6:54] been my Lord and Savior because we

[6:56] shouldn't be where we are in the minds

[6:58] of a lot of people. Uh, I don't pray

[7:00] that God is on my side. But I just pray

[7:01] I'm doing right by him. And we've tried

[7:03] our hardest throughout this campaign to

[7:05] be honest, to be upfront, to be direct,

[7:07] and to talk about the things that I

[7:09] learned in Sunday school and in church.

[7:10] And that's to be honest with people, to

[7:12] try to bring people together, and to do

[7:14] God's work. And we got a lot of work to

[7:16] do. Well, you know, Errol, uh, American

[7:18] public policy, a year ago when you

[7:20] talked about running in the Senate race

[7:21] in the state of Tennessee, a lot of my

[7:24] friends rolled their eyes, and you are

[7:25] right. You shouldn't be where you are

[7:27] right now. Uh, but, uh, you obviously

[7:30] serve a big guy. I serve an enormously

[7:32] big God.

[7:33] >> Yeah. And it's it it has shown

[7:35] throughout this campaign. Hey, Harold,

[7:37] good luck. And uh regardless of the

[7:39] results tonight, I know I'm proud of you

[7:41] and there are a lot of people that have

[7:42] worked with you and known you throughout

[7:43] your life that are proud of you. You've

[7:44] run an extraordinary campaign.

[7:47] >> Thank you, brother. Let's let's go on to

[7:48] Victor. Thank you.

[7:49] >> All right. Talk soon. Now, other than

[7:52] Tennessee, of course, there are a lot of

[7:53] other hot races that are going down to

[7:55] the wire, and we've got those covered

[7:57] also. Let's go to Virginia right now

[7:59] where voting problems could see a hotly

[8:01] contested race fall into chaos over

[8:04] allegations of voter intimidation. Seems

[8:07] like some folks have been getting

[8:08] suspicious calls asking where they voted

[8:11] and who they voted for and that led to

[8:13] election officials in Virginia

[8:15] contacting the FBI. Let's go to Virginia

[8:18] right now and turn to Hardball's David

[8:19] Sher. He's in Richmond, Virginia. David,

[8:21] we're going to talk about that in a

[8:22] minute, but first let's talk about voter

[8:24] turnout. I understand it is very heavy

[8:27] in the Commonwealth of Virginia and you

[8:28] just talked to the Secretary of State.

[8:30] What's the word down there?

[8:33] >> Well, Joe, Jean Jensen, the Secretary of

[8:34] the State Board of Elections, says that

[8:36] by noon today, they already had 30% of

[8:40] all registered voters vote. She says

[8:42] that is extraordinary because when you

[8:44] go back to the last congressional

[8:46] midterm election in 2002, the total for

[8:49] the entire day was just less than 40%.

[8:52] So based on what she's hearing from the

[8:54] poll workers across the state, Jansen

[8:57] believes that turnout will be around 65%

[9:01] of all registered voters, which would be

[9:03] extraordinary, she said, because in the

[9:05] 2004 presidential election, which had

[9:07] the highest turnout in Virginia history,

[9:09] turnout for that race was just a little

[9:11] bit higher at 71%.

[9:14] In addition, Jensen says that the

[9:16] election overall is running smoothly.

[9:18] They have not had ma uh many major

[9:20] computer glitches. A couple isolated

[9:21] problems here and there. But Joe, as you

[9:23] know, the significance of heavy voter

[9:25] turnout is we've already had one uh

[9:28] campaign worker for George Allen who

[9:29] said to us away from the cameras that if

[9:31] turnout is this heavy, that is awful

[9:33] news for the incumbent George Allen

[9:36] simply because, as you know, Joe, when

[9:38] incumbents are in some trouble and

[9:39] turnout is very high, that turnout

[9:41] usually means that the challenger is

[9:43] going to get most of those votes. But in

[9:45] any case, Democrats confidence is rising

[9:48] and again heavy turnout being reported

[9:50] by state officials here in Richmond.

[9:52] Joe.

[9:52] >> All right, thank you so much David

[9:54] Schustster live in Richmond, Virginia.

[9:57] And of course we can go back two years

[9:59] ago to the 2004 election. There's also

[10:02] heavy turnout on both sides. It looks

[10:04] like both parties have really gotten

[10:07] voter turnout, the whole get out the

[10:08] vote campaign down to a science. And it

[10:11] looks like again turnout's high. Now,

[10:13] two years ago, people also thought that

[10:15] heavy voter turnout would work against

[10:17] the Republican party, but it ended up

[10:18] that Carl Ro and the Republicans

[10:20] actually made historic gains by getting

[10:23] their most loyal base out to the polls.

[10:25] The question tonight, and the question

[10:27] that we've got to be asking right now at

[10:29] 3:11 Eastern Standard Time is whether

[10:32] the Democrats learned from what happened

[10:34] in 2004 and whether they matched the

[10:37] Republicans in the get out the vote

[10:38] efforts. Chances are good they did. But

[10:42] lousy weather has a potential impact on

[10:45] voter turnout on this election day. And

[10:47] the weather is absolutely terrible in a

[10:50] few places. Let's check in right now

[10:51] with NBC weatherplus.com meteorologist

[10:55] Bill Karens. Bill kind of ugly out there

[10:57] in some places. Tell us about it.

[10:59] >> Yeah, we've seen a lot of rain Joe in

[11:00] important states like Virginia and in

[11:02] Tennessee. We also got our eye now in

[11:04] Pennsylvania because the weather's

[11:05] starting to go downhill there. It will

[11:06] this afternoon and this evening in

[11:08] Philadelphia, too. Right now, currently,

[11:09] clouds are on the increase. The big

[11:11] cities are remaining dry, but that's not

[11:13] so for the whole state. Look at this

[11:15] area of green here from Eerie,

[11:16] Pennsylvania, all across the New York

[11:18] border and northern Pennsylvania,

[11:20] especially the rural areas here. We do

[11:21] have a lot of rain that's moving in. And

[11:23] as we go throughout the later portions

[11:24] of this afternoon when the polls are

[11:26] beginning to wrap up, a lot of people

[11:27] voting heavily probably on the way home

[11:29] from work. We do expect more rain

[11:30] towards the Philadelphia area. Right

[11:32] now, Pittsburgh is looking okay. as we

[11:34] head over towards Philadelphia. Right

[11:36] now, just some clouds increasing, some

[11:37] scattered showers, but Joe, we do expect

[11:39] that heavy rain to move up from the

[11:40] south as we go throughout the late

[11:42] afternoon and the early evening.

[11:44] >> Thanks so much, Bill Karens. And of

[11:46] course, Rick Santorum would love there

[11:47] to be a torrential downpour, a tsunami

[11:49] in Philadelphia at least for the next

[11:51] five or six hours. And in Northwest

[11:53] Florida, where I'm from, the

[11:55] conservative bastion of the Republican

[11:57] party in that state, also some very bad

[12:00] weather being reported there. Very bad

[12:02] news for the Republican party. Great

[12:04] news for Democrats on the Senate running

[12:07] for Senate and also the gubernatorial

[12:09] race. Now, according to the Cook

[12:11] Political Report, you may not have to

[12:13] stay up too late tonight to figure out

[12:15] who wins. Take a look at this map. Since

[12:18] many of the key congressional races are

[12:20] in the eastern and central time zones, a

[12:22] good idea of the trend is going to be

[12:24] known early in the evening. That is if

[12:27] everything goes smoothly. Of course, as

[12:29] we've learned from previous election

[12:31] nights, that's rarely the case, which

[12:33] makes it even more important that you

[12:35] stay with MSNBC all night as we wait for

[12:38] the returns to come in. Chris Matthews,

[12:41] Keith Overberman, and an all-star cast

[12:43] of correspondents and analysts will be

[12:45] here for as long as it takes to tell you

[12:48] who's going to be controlling the House,

[12:50] who's going to be controlling the

[12:51] Senate, and who's going to be

[12:53] controlling the future of our government

[12:55] [music] in Washington, DC. We'll be

[12:57] right back with continuing coverage of

[12:59] Decision 2006,

[13:01] only here on MSNBC.

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[15:58] Back to our continuing coverage. And

[15:59] now, let's go to the three-way race in

[16:01] Connecticut, where Joe Lieberman is not

[16:03] taking his lead in the pre-election

[16:06] polls for granted. My colleague Chris

[16:08] Jansing is following that race from

[16:09] Hartford. Chris, tell us what you're

[16:11] hearing about voting problems in

[16:14] Connecticut and Joe Lieberman's comeback

[16:16] against Ned Lamont.

[16:19] >> Yeah, it has been quite a comeback that

[16:21] he hopes to cap tonight. Of course, it

[16:23] would be as stunning arguably as what

[16:26] happened in the primary when he lost to

[16:28] Ned Lamont. A lot of people told him it

[16:30] would be virtually impossible to mount

[16:32] an independent run. But since losing

[16:34] that primary, Joe Lieberman has never

[16:36] been behind in the polls. And he's been

[16:39] crisscrossing the state this week

[16:40] shaking a lot of hands. He was out

[16:42] couple of times this morning and then

[16:44] voted around lunchtime, but he's taking

[16:46] the afternoon off before coming back to

[16:48] Hartford for what he hopes will be a

[16:51] victory party at a local hotel. Now, for

[16:53] his opponent, Ned Lamont, he is not

[16:56] giving up. He says he doesn't believe

[16:57] the polls and in fact he was up at the

[16:59] crack of dawn today. He was at a polling

[17:01] place casting his vote for himself a

[17:04] little after 7 o'clock in the morning. A

[17:06] race in which he has spent at least $16

[17:08] million out of his own pocket. Look at

[17:12] his schedule though today. He is not

[17:14] stopping. He's got at least 10 stops

[17:17] around polling places where he just

[17:20] wants to go and remind voters that there

[17:22] is an alternative to um uh uh to um Joe

[17:28] Lieberman. Now, what is really

[17:30] interesting about this uh race, it's not

[17:32] only one of the most watched in the

[17:33] country, but of course it's one in which

[17:35] these two major candidates have not been

[17:38] supported by parties. And the same for

[17:40] the Republican candidate who basically

[17:43] has never pulled out of single digits.

[17:44] and that is Alan Slesinger. One more

[17:47] thing, I checked with the Secretary of

[17:48] State's office a little while ago. They

[17:50] have been tracking 12 what they consider

[17:52] to be bellweather districts and they

[17:55] said that right now they are polling

[17:57] about 30% ahead of where they were in

[18:00] 2002. So predictions that this will be a

[18:03] record setting midterm election are

[18:06] looking to be the case. Uh we have 1.9

[18:09] million voters here in Connecticut. That

[18:11] is the highest it's ever been. Joe

[18:13] >> MSNBC's Chris Jansing in Connecticut.

[18:16] Thanks so much. And boy, I'll tell you

[18:17] what, both of these parties are really

[18:20] figuring out how to get every last voter

[18:23] out to the poll. Historic gains in 2004,

[18:25] and it looks like we're going to be

[18:26] looking at historic gains again in this

[18:29] midterm election. Well, Democrats are

[18:31] confident they're going to be able to

[18:32] take control of the House, but the fate

[18:34] of the Senates a little less clear.

[18:36] NBC's Nora O'Donnell has a look at how

[18:39] some of the scenarios may play out

[18:40] tonight. Nora,

[18:42] >> and good day to you, Joe. Take a look at

[18:44] this. The current balance of power in

[18:46] the United States Senate stands at 44

[18:48] Democrats, one independent, and 55

[18:51] Republicans. We know, of course, that

[18:53] the Democrats need six seats in order to

[18:57] take power. Now, here's where it gets

[18:59] interesting. What we have now on this

[19:02] map is look at the states in yellow. Of

[19:04] course, the left side is the Democrats,

[19:06] the right sides are the Republicans.

[19:07] These are the 10 seats that we're

[19:08] watching very closely. Now, Connecticut,

[19:11] for instance, we know Joe Lieberman,

[19:13] he's been ahead of his Democratic

[19:14] challenger. That puts two independents

[19:16] up there. Let's The Democrats feel

[19:18] confident that they can hold on to

[19:19] Maryland, but it's tight. The Democrats

[19:21] feel confident they can hold on to New

[19:23] Jersey. This is why it's tough for the

[19:25] Republicans this year. Look how many

[19:26] states they have to defend on the

[19:28] Republican side. The Democrats feel

[19:30] confident in Ohio. The Democrats feel

[19:32] confident in Pennsylvania. They've had

[19:34] wide leads there. Rhode Island, it's

[19:37] very tight, but the Democrats want to

[19:38] win that site seat. Montana, it's very

[19:41] tight, but the the uh Democrats want to

[19:43] win that seat. What does that leave us?

[19:46] Tennessee, Missouri, and Virginia, the

[19:49] very important races. And look where we

[19:50] stand now. 47 to 48. Now, Tennessee, we

[19:57] know that the Republican

[20:01] is ahead in that seat. Missouri and

[20:04] Virginia. What happens if the Democrats

[20:07] take both of those seats? We'll turn

[20:09] them blue. 4949.

[20:12] But Joe, the two independents, right?

[20:14] They vote with the Democrats. That means

[20:17] 51

[20:18] 49 the Democrats are in power. Now,

[20:23] that's one scenario. Of course, there's

[20:25] a lot of different scenarios that could

[20:26] happen. Let's try this. What about let's

[20:30] go back to uh Virginia

[20:33] and Missouri. What if the Democrats get

[20:37] Virginia? Let's turn that blue. What if

[20:40] the Republicans hold Missouri? Let's

[20:42] turn that red. The two independents,

[20:46] but with the Democrats, it's 5050.

[20:50] Guess what? Vice President Cheney

[20:54] breaks the tie. That's why this is

[20:57] pretty interesting. Yeah, Vice President

[20:58] Cheney, of course, a man that moderates

[21:00] and independents love snuggling up to.

[21:03] I'm sure, [laughter] Nora, you've just

[21:05] inspired Democrats across the country to

[21:08] rush out to the polls. Thanks so much,

[21:10] Nora O'Donnell. Congratulations. You've

[21:12] got that teleustrator thing down here.

[21:13] >> I've been working on it. I've been

[21:14] working on it.

[21:15] >> You are the political equivalent, my

[21:17] friend, of John Madden. Thanks, Nora.

[21:19] Greatly appreciate it. Nora, of course,

[21:21] will be working the teleustrator all

[21:22] night. It's absolutely fascinating to

[21:24] see how the balance of power is going to

[21:26] be moving back and forth throughout the

[21:28] evening. So, the next question is as we

[21:31] get past [music] 2006 after Nora tells

[21:33] us who's going to win is whether it's

[21:35] too soon to start thinking about [music]

[21:37] 2008, we're going to be talking to Craig

[21:38] Crawford when we come back about and and

[21:41] we're going to talk about that. And make

[21:43] no mistake of it, who wins tonight will

[21:46] impact [music] who ultimately gets

[21:48] elected in 2008. We'll tell you why when

[21:51] we return with more coverage of Decision

[21:53] 2006 Battleground America, only here on

[21:56] MSNBC.

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[25:32] The outcome of critical races in states

[25:34] like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana

[25:37] going to have a lot to do with how

[25:38] President Bush is able to govern during

[25:40] his final two years in office. Let's

[25:42] bring in another Floridaian, Craig

[25:43] Crawford. He's MSNBC political analyst

[25:46] and columnist for the Congressional

[25:47] Quarterly.

[25:47] >> We've got twothirds of the state

[25:49] covered. You're in North Florida,

[25:50] Central Florida. [laughter]

[25:51] >> Exactly. You got the I4 corridor

[25:53] covered. You know, Craig, a lot of

[25:54] people are going to roll their eyes when

[25:55] I say this, but who wins in 2006 may

[25:59] determine who gets elected in 2008. Talk

[26:01] about how wide open that race is and

[26:03] what a Democratic landslide today could

[26:05] mean for candidates two years from now.

[26:06] >> I tell you, Joe, whichever side wins

[26:08] this thing, uh I it's going to be by

[26:10] such small margins of victory for a

[26:13] majority in either House or Senate. I

[26:14] think Capitol Hill is going to be

[26:16] nothing but a battlefield for the next

[26:18] couple of years. And one of the battles

[26:20] is going to be the presidential

[26:21] campaign. This is the most wide openen

[26:22] race we've had in eight decades for

[26:25] president. By that I mean this is the

[26:27] first time in 80 years neither a sitting

[26:30] president or a sitting vice president

[26:31] has stood for election in either the

[26:34] primaries or the general election. So

[26:36] you have no air apparent in either side

[26:38] and that's a wideopen race. So

[26:39] everybody's and their brothers running.

[26:41] I've I've found 26 candidates so far.

[26:43] >> And of course if Republicans win today

[26:46] by some some miracle that's actually

[26:49] Hillary Clinton's

[26:50] >> Mhm. greatest hope because she can run

[26:52] against a corrupt, bloated, outof touch

[26:54] Republican Congress. The converse of

[26:56] that, of course, is if you have Speaker

[26:58] Nancy Pelosi two years from now, that

[27:00] probably helps Republican candidates,

[27:01] doesn't it?

[27:02] >> I I actually interviewed one of her high

[27:05] high placed adviserss, didn't want to be

[27:08] named, but he told me if uh Nancy Pelosi

[27:12] becomes speaker of the house by just a

[27:13] few votes, he says that's our worst case

[27:15] scenario. They want to run against a

[27:17] Republican Congress, blame them for for

[27:19] everything. Conversely, I would say

[27:21] Republicans may actually be better off

[27:23] if Dem that if Democrats got control

[27:26] than they would if they maintain control

[27:29] with just a one or two seat margin

[27:31] because then they wouldn't be able to

[27:32] get anything done and they'd still get

[27:34] the blame.

[27:34] >> And certainly John McCain's camp is

[27:36] thinking that also. They don't want

[27:39] >> for for Hillary Clinton to run against

[27:41] again a corrupt Republican Congress.

[27:44] talk about uh let's say the Democrats

[27:46] enjoy a landslide victory tonight as a

[27:48] lot of people are predicting. Is there a

[27:50] specific conservative candidate in the

[27:53] Republican party that that helps?

[27:54] >> That's the most fascinating thing about

[27:56] this race to me is the wide openen seat

[27:58] for that uh that birth in the Republican

[28:00] party. The whoever inherits that

[28:02] conservative chair that George Bush

[28:04] commanded so well and George Allen had

[28:07] been one of the top candidates for that.

[28:10] Uh that's how early this race is. We've

[28:12] already had two Virginiaians drop out,

[28:14] one voluntarily and Mark Warner's

[28:16] already dropped out on the Democratic

[28:18] side for president and it looks like

[28:20] Allan may be forced out and that's an

[28:23] open seat. So you have Sam Brown back at

[28:25] Kansas, one of the conservatives. Uh you

[28:27] have protest candidates like Tom Tanko,

[28:29] congressman from Colorado. Uh and the

[28:32] one I see emerging as the first one to

[28:35] compete for that chair most effectively

[28:37] is Mitt Romney, the governor of

[28:38] Massachusetts, who's working at that

[28:40] very hard right now.

[28:41] >> Wow. And of course, N. Gingrich also

[28:44] Gingrich is in there and uh you know

[28:46] pushing World War II [laughter]

[28:49] to get the national security

[28:51] conservatives.

[28:52] >> That'll do it. That'll do it.

[28:54] >> Even Even the neocons might be ready for

[28:56] that. Move beyond Iraq. Let's have World

[28:59] War.

[28:59] >> Exactly. [laughter] All right. Hey,

[29:00] Craig. Thank you so much. And of course,

[29:02] it's on the cover. Give me that real

[29:04] quickly on the show.

[29:04] >> Yeah, we got them.

[29:05] >> Your story on the cover. I'm going to

[29:07] hold it straight up here in front of my

[29:08] face. On the cover of Congressional

[29:10] Quarterly. You'll want to check this

[29:11] out. And there's not a glare when you

[29:13] pick it up at the magazine stand like

[29:15] there is here. I'm such an [laughter]

[29:17] idiot. Anyway, thanks Greg. There are

[29:19] voting problems, of course, being

[29:21] reported coast to coast. And coming up

[29:22] next, we're going to take you to

[29:23] Washington for the very latest in the

[29:25] battle for the control of Congress and

[29:27] how it may be shaped by some of those

[29:29] voting controversies. That's when

[29:31] decision 2006, Battleground America,

[29:34] continues [music] right here on MSNBC.

[29:45] I love election night. Before I was on

[29:48] television or before I was a journalist

[29:49] even, I used to just love sitting in

[29:50] [music] a room at night and flicking the

[29:52] dials around and watching the whole

[29:54] thing right through midnight. The most

[29:55] exciting election of my lifetime was

[29:58] Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy in

[30:01] 1916. It was fought to the end. It was

[30:03] so close and only when we got up in the

[30:05] morning did we know that [music] Kennedy

[30:07] had won. I would urge the person who

[30:08] thinks his vote doesn't matter or her

[30:10] vote doesn't matter to look at how close

[30:12] these elections have gotten.

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[31:50] >> Straight to you, Will. One shot go.

[31:54] >> Hi, Oregon and Southwest Washington. and

[31:56] I'm Will Blitzer. In the situation room,

[31:58] you see it when we see it. Raw and

[32:00] unfiltered. Join me in the situation

[32:03] room weekdays 4 p.m. on Comcast channel

[32:06] 44.

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[32:49] CNBC market rap. A hot election day and

[32:51] green arrows across the board on Wall

[32:53] Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average

[32:54] picking up 64 points, the S&P 500 up by

[32:57] four, the Nasdaq [music] up by 14 as

[33:00] voters head to polls across the country.

[33:02] The Dow did give back some of those

[33:04] earlier gains, though. FedEx canceling

[33:06] an order for 10 Airbus A380s. Memphis

[33:08] based FedEx [music] blaming Airbus's

[33:10] production delays. The European jumbo

[33:13] jets are already [music] about 2 years

[33:14] behind schedule. FedEx instead going

[33:17] domestic, calling on Boeing with an

[33:19] order for 1577s.

[33:22] Microsoft founder Bill Gates joining

[33:24] forces with the Saudi [music] prince to

[33:26] take the swanky Four Seasons hotel chain

[33:28] private. News of that $3 billion [music]

[33:30] offer hit the wires yesterday, but today

[33:33] it sent for season shares up more than

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[33:38] in advanced talks with YouTube to bring

[33:40] some of the website's videos to cell

[33:42] phones and TV [music] sets. Now back to

[33:44] MSNBC's non-stop election day coverage

[33:46] with Joe Scarboro [music] live at MSNBC

[33:48] World Headquarters.

[33:59] >> [music]

[34:02] >> The first polls are scheduled to close

[34:04] in just a few hours from now and long

[34:06] lines are being reported as Americans

[34:08] take part in one of the most contentious

[34:09] midterm elections in recent memory. But

[34:12] even before the polls open today, the

[34:14] potential for voting problems was

[34:16] strong. And sure enough, it appears to

[34:18] be man against machine in Colorado,

[34:20] Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Missouri,

[34:24] New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah,

[34:26] and Virginia. Why didn't we just name

[34:28] all 50 states? NBC's Capitol Hill

[34:31] correspondent Chip Reed joins us live

[34:33] from Washington DC. Hey Chip, these

[34:36] elect I I am not a ly, but I voted on

[34:40] one of these electronic voting machines

[34:42] in Florida early and it intimidated the

[34:44] hell out of me. I've got to believe that

[34:46] a lot of people were expecting problems

[34:48] from these electronic voting machines

[34:50] well before they were put into place

[34:52] today.

[34:53] >> Absolutely. And they're getting about

[34:54] the level of problems they expected.

[34:56] Nothing catastrophic so far. And in

[34:58] almost every state, it's the same

[35:00] problem. It's that they try to start the

[35:02] machines up in the morning and something

[35:03] goes wrong. And of course, it's

[35:05] virtually always human error. It's pole

[35:07] workers who just don't understand how to

[35:09] do it. These are complicated machines to

[35:11] vote on. Imagine if you had no

[35:13] familiarity with computers like a lot of

[35:15] these elderly pole workers do and you

[35:17] had to figure out this you know 26step

[35:20] process for getting one of these

[35:22] machines going. It's tough. Uh and in a

[35:24] lot of places it's taken a while to get

[35:26] uh to get them going. And that's a very

[35:28] bad thing obviously because a lot of

[35:30] people can't wait around and they have

[35:32] to go to work. And some places they've

[35:34] decided to keep the polls open later or

[35:36] they've gone to court and a judge has

[35:37] said keep it open a couple hours later

[35:39] but some people can't come back. But

[35:41] having said that, this is about on the

[35:43] level that they expected. It's

[35:45] relatively small numbers. Nothing

[35:46] catastrophic so far. My favorite story,

[35:48] Joe. Somebody spilled coffee and shorted

[35:51] out one of these machines. So, they made

[35:53] a new rule at that precinct. No drinking

[35:55] while voting.

[35:56] >> No doubt about it. You know, it's so

[35:57] fascinating what you're telling me about

[35:58] the reports that you're getting in today

[36:00] because last week I talked to my former

[36:02] chief of staff when I was in Congress

[36:04] who's now a supervisor of elections. He

[36:06] says the biggest impact is that he's

[36:08] afraid that elderly poll watchers are

[36:11] probably not going to be around 5 or 10

[36:13] years from now because these electronic

[36:15] voting machines are so complex and so

[36:18] complicated that people didn't grow up

[36:20] with a knowledge of computers may just

[36:22] throw their arms up in the air and say

[36:24] the heck with it.

[36:25] >> Absolutely. The average age of a pole

[36:26] worker is about 72. And I'm not slamming

[36:29] elderly people. I have trouble with

[36:30] computers myself. I didn't grow up with

[36:32] computers. I mean, the truth is, uh, it

[36:34] is difficult and these people get paid

[36:37] something like $150 and you think, well,

[36:39] you go to work for one day. No, they

[36:41] spend days and days trying to figure out

[36:43] how to work these things. So, they're

[36:44] performing a great public service, but

[36:46] it is difficult and in some places it

[36:48] has been more than difficult. It's taken

[36:50] them a couple of hours. They have to

[36:51] call in the experts to get the machines

[36:53] going. Uh, but again, nothing

[36:54] catastrophic, but it is early. And

[36:56] again, Chip, as you said, this is a very

[36:59] complicated process, a very technical

[37:01] process, and certainly it's going to be

[37:03] something we're going to be dealing with

[37:04] for some time. NBC's Chip Reed in

[37:05] Washington, DC. Thank you so much. You

[37:07] bet.

[37:07] >> Hey, with us now on the phone to talk

[37:09] about the prospects for Republicans

[37:11] today is North Carolina Senator

[37:13] Elizabeth Dole. Senator, thanks for

[37:15] being with me. I want to talk to you

[37:16] about a couple of fascinating races that

[37:19] have been breaking the Republicans way

[37:21] over the past week. Of course,

[37:23] Republicans we've been hearing for some

[37:24] time. We're going to lose the House and

[37:26] possibly the Senate, but some some

[37:28] turnarounds in states like Rhode Island,

[37:31] in Montana, in Maryland. Let's start

[37:34] with Maryland. What in the world is

[37:36] happening in the state of Maryland where

[37:39] Michael Steele has basically turned this

[37:41] into a deadlock in a state that

[37:42] registers two to one for Republic for

[37:44] Democrats over Republicans. I'll tell

[37:46] you, Michael Steele is a dynamic

[37:48] candidate who's giving Marylanders a

[37:50] choice. Uh, and he's, uh, you know, it's

[37:52] not just more of the same from a career

[37:54] politician like Ben Carton, who's held

[37:56] office for 40 years now. Uh, Michael

[37:58] wants to shake up things and he has a

[38:01] message of empowerment, educational

[38:03] empowerment. Uh, uh, certainly economic

[38:06] empowerment, and his message is

[38:08] resonating across Maryland. Uh, you

[38:10] know, recently he was endorsed uh by the

[38:13] former Prince George's uh uh county

[38:15] executive Wayne Curry, who's highly

[38:17] respected uh and five other uh

[38:20] African-American Democrats on the county

[38:22] council. Uh there are nine members uh

[38:24] and those five uh were with him uh as

[38:27] well as Wayne Curry. And it was it just

[38:30] showed, you know, he's got an ability to

[38:32] attract African-Americans to his

[38:34] campaign that may mean the difference.

[38:36] And uh he certainly has the momentum. Uh

[38:39] he's he's a very very attractive

[38:41] candidate.

[38:42] >> Very sharp. And of course, let's move

[38:43] from Maryland to Montana where a guy

[38:45] who's not been accused of being sharp in

[38:47] the past. He's basically kept his foot

[38:49] stuck in his mouth through a long large

[38:51] part of his Senate career. Conrad Burns.

[38:54] But Conrad Burns also coming back from

[38:57] the political dead. the John Ga the John

[39:00] Kerry gaff last week, a visit by the

[39:03] vice president, a visit by the president

[39:05] has turned this race in Montana into a

[39:07] dead heat. What's going on there?

[39:09] >> Yes, indeed. And I'll tell you, uh

[39:11] Conrad Burns really produces for his

[39:14] state. I think back to Malstrom Air

[39:16] Force Base during the round and how uh

[39:19] he took care of that, it's it's

[39:21] something like uh 500 million a year and

[39:24] 250 jobs. And you know, when I've been

[39:26] out campaigning for him again and again,

[39:28] I see the results of all the good work

[39:30] he's done for the state of Montana. So

[39:32] despite an onslaught of paid media full

[39:35] of distortions about his record, uh he

[39:38] is uh he's neck andneck and looking good

[39:41] >> and despite despite again some missteps

[39:44] on his part. But I'll tell you one state

[39:46] where a candidate hasn't had a misstep.

[39:48] Again, another late breaker, Lincoln

[39:50] Chaffy, a guy who in 2001 told a

[39:53] newspaper that he didn't even vote for

[39:55] George W. Bush. And yet, he may be the

[39:58] candidate who ends up saving the

[40:00] president and the Republican majority in

[40:02] the US Senate. What is happening with

[40:04] Lincoln Chaffi's uh getting this second

[40:06] wind?

[40:07] >> Well, Link Chaffy uh uh reflects the

[40:10] views of his state. Uh he is uh he's

[40:12] progrowth. You know, the National

[40:14] Chamber of Commerce has endorsed him in

[40:16] fiscal responsibility. And I think the

[40:19] majority of voters in Rhode Island are

[40:21] independents. They like uh Link Chaffy's

[40:23] record of voting with his state uh not

[40:25] party or ideology. And uh Sheldon White

[40:28] House's record uh is really quite an

[40:31] issue in this race. Uh I I think uh you

[40:33] know most of his tenure as state at-

[40:35] attorney general was spent uh

[40:37] prosecuting uh well not pro uh not uh

[40:40] prosecuting graph by public officials

[40:42] avoiding that uh because he was afraid

[40:44] he'd upset Democrat party bosses. So uh

[40:48] Lincoln has done a a good job uh

[40:50] campaigning hard and uh you know uh Joe

[40:53] we're going to keep the majority in the

[40:55] Senate. Uh we've got that our candidates

[40:57] uh have been very focused on uh uh uh

[41:00] you know comparing contrasting the

[41:03] choice uh between the c between our

[41:05] Republicans and their opponent uh

[41:08] touting their records and really drawing

[41:10] the contrast on issues like corruption

[41:13] in New Jersey. Issues that are important

[41:15] to to folks in that particular state.

[41:17] >> All right, Senator Elizabeth Dole,

[41:19] they're telling me that we have to go.

[41:21] We're coming up on a hard break, but I

[41:22] got to tell you, you took over this

[41:24] position of running the Republican

[41:25] Senate Committee, the most brutal of

[41:27] political years, and yet it looks like

[41:29] you may pull out a win tonight. Maybe by

[41:32] a small margin, but certainly some

[41:33] things are breaking your way in some key

[41:36] states. Thanks for being with us today.

[41:37] >> You bet, Joe. It's great to talk with

[41:39] you.

[41:39] >> All right, now great talking to you,

[41:41] too. Good luck. And President Bush's

[41:43] name, of course, isn't on the ballot

[41:44] anywhere in America today, but as a

[41:45] millions of Americans go to the poll,

[41:47] many are considering the president's

[41:48] performance over the past six years and

[41:50] what that could mean for today's midterm

[41:53] elections. With me now to talk about the

[41:54] president's impact on this election is

[41:56] NBC presidential historian Michael

[41:59] Bashos. Michael, can you compare another

[42:02] point in time in history when the

[42:04] midterms were such a direct referendum

[42:07] on failed policies of a president? Like

[42:09] a lot of people are saying, this

[42:11] election is going to be a referendum on

[42:13] the president's failed policy in Iraq.

[42:16] >> Well, there are a number of them, but

[42:17] the most recent is one that you remember

[42:19] very well, which is 1994. I seem to

[42:22] remember that was the year you got first

[42:24] elected to the House. Am I right?

[42:25] >> That That's exactly right. On the issue

[42:27] of Bill Clinton's presidency,

[42:29] >> that's it. And I seem also to remember,

[42:31] I think you were the first Republican

[42:33] elected from that district since 1870s.

[42:36] >> 1872. when they hung the last Republican

[42:38] that got elected there. So, yeah, it'

[42:41] been a very long time.

[42:43] >> So, well, that's it. So, if Bill Clinton

[42:45] had not been so unpopular that year, how

[42:48] would your election have gone?

[42:49] >> Oh, there's no doubt about it. And you

[42:50] know, Michael, what I'm also telling

[42:52] people today is that on the Friday

[42:54] before the election, I had a 51 to 49%

[42:58] lead. Yeah.

[42:59] >> Election day, I won 62 to 38% because it

[43:02] was one of those wave years. And that's

[43:03] the question today. Does it seem like

[43:05] there's going to be this big wave

[43:07] against President Bush?

[43:08] >> It does because, you know, it's got the

[43:10] ingredients that you saw in 94, also

[43:13] 1946 somewhat in 1966, and that is

[43:17] president who's very unpopular, a

[43:18] feeling that the country is on the wrong

[43:21] track. A party which is the president

[43:23] that has owned Congress for a very long

[43:25] time. And something else that you didn't

[43:27] see in 46 or 94, and that is a very

[43:30] unpopular war in Iraq. And you know,

[43:32] Michael, I love the story that you told

[43:34] the other day about sometimes, you know,

[43:36] Senator Paul Simon said in politics,

[43:37] sometimes when you lose, you win. Yeah.

[43:40] We talked about 1946 earlier this week.

[43:42] And of course, in 1948, the fact that

[43:45] Republicans took control of Congress

[43:47] helped Harry Truman get elected. He

[43:49] talked about that do nothing Republican

[43:51] Congress. Talk about how sometimes a

[43:54] party's president losing control of

[43:56] Congress ends up helping him out in the

[43:58] end.

[43:59] >> Absolutely. Because, you know, right

[44:01] now, this year, the Democrats can say,

[44:04] you know, have you had enough of these

[44:05] Republicans? They have been in control

[44:06] for 12 years. Look at all the things

[44:08] that are wrong. And against that, all

[44:11] they have to do is suggest that they'll

[44:13] do better. But once they're in power,

[44:15] they're going to have to produce. And if

[44:17] they don't, they're going to have an

[44:18] enormous opening for Republican in 2008

[44:22] to say, "See, the Democrats told you

[44:24] they would do A and B and C, but they

[44:26] couldn't produce." And and what's the

[44:27] history of, let's say, a liberal Nancy

[44:30] Pelosi taking over the speakerhip,

[44:32] whether she enacts any liberal policies

[44:34] or not, or whether she's just a

[44:36] technical efficient leader of that

[44:38] house, which most of her allies say

[44:39] she's going to be, does that make the

[44:42] Republican party become more

[44:44] conservative in reaction to that? Or

[44:46] John McCain a more conservative

[44:47] candidate? How does that sort of thing

[44:49] play out in the balancing act of

[44:51] American politics? If the Republicans

[44:53] are smart, they're going to take a leaf

[44:55] from Bill Clinton in 1995 and 1996 and

[44:58] triangulate. If the Democrats seem

[45:01] further left than they've gotten elected

[45:03] on, should they be elected to the

[45:05] leadership of the House this year, it's

[45:07] an enormous opening for Republican

[45:09] leaders to say, you know, the election

[45:11] of 2006 was a vote for a nicer tone in

[45:15] Washington, more cooperation, more

[45:17] moderation. If they do that, they can

[45:20] make it very possible for a Republican

[45:22] to be elected president in08.

[45:24] >> All right, presidential historian

[45:25] Michael Bes, thank you so much for being

[45:27] with us. I really do appreciate it.

[45:29] >> My pleasure.

[45:30] >> All right, and coming up next, the

[45:31] Santorum Casey race in Pennsylvania, any

[45:33] surprises [music] expected there? We're

[45:34] going to be asking NBC's Lisa Daniels,

[45:36] who's in Pittsburgh, Santorum Territory

[45:40] when we return to Decision 2006, [music]

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[49:20] >> Our turning out, we are finding in

[49:23] Democratic precincts there is very good

[49:25] turnout. Now, I'll give a cautionary

[49:27] note. You know, we don't know turnout

[49:29] numbers. They're not put sent in. So,

[49:32] it's anecdotal, but we are feeling very

[49:35] good about that.

[49:37] >> That was Democratic Senator Chuck

[49:38] Schumer with an optimistic outlook of

[49:40] both voter turnout and his party's

[49:42] prospects for taking back Congress.

[49:44] Let's go now to the Keystone State,

[49:45] which could be a key win for Democrats

[49:47] on this election day. Well, it looks

[49:49] like the governor's seat's going to

[49:50] stay, actually, it says stay in

[49:52] Republican hands. I think the governor's

[49:53] seat is going to go overwhelmingly

[49:55] Democratic. Democrats are also hoping

[49:57] hoping one Senate and four congressional

[49:59] seats will go true blue. NBC's Lisa

[50:02] Daniels is in Pittsburgh. Lisa Bob Casey

[50:04] came in today with a double-digit lead.

[50:07] Is there any reason to believe there's

[50:09] going to be a November surprise?

[50:13] >> Well, Santorm's people say you better

[50:15] count on it, Joe. In fact, Senator

[50:17] Santorm's people say he is the ultimate

[50:19] closer. He knows how to pull in the

[50:21] votes when it really does count. But

[50:23] again, those latest polls say exactly

[50:25] what you said, Joe, that the Democratic

[50:27] challenger, Bob Casey, has a substantial

[50:29] double-digit lead. And I asked Santorm

[50:31] about it, and he dismissed it. He said

[50:34] that his own polls show a much tighter

[50:36] race. And he said, "Voter turnout will

[50:38] be key here." He turned around to the

[50:40] phone bank to those many volunteers and

[50:42] said, "They are my secret weapon.

[50:44] They've been working these phones

[50:46] ferociously for the last 72 hours.

[50:48] They're going to bring home the gold for

[50:50] me." As for Casey, he says he is feeling

[50:53] good and his aids point out to me that

[50:55] if the number of people attending

[50:56] Casey's events in the last week is any

[50:59] indication, then this race is theirs.

[51:02] But the bottom line here, Joe, the

[51:04] significance is that Senator Santorum is

[51:06] the number three Senate Republican. A

[51:09] loss for him is a loss for President

[51:11] Bush and also a signal that the

[51:13] conservative uh wing of the Republican

[51:16] party may be losing favor. But again,

[51:18] Sen Senator Santorm's people keep on

[51:20] reminding us, do not dismiss him. He

[51:23] earned the title comeback kid for a

[51:25] reason, Joe.

[51:27] >> All right, Lisa Daniels, if he's the

[51:28] comeback kid this year, we're going to

[51:30] put a crown on him for the ultimate

[51:31] comeback. I don't think I've seen

[51:33] anybody close 13 points in the last

[51:35] eight. Thanks so much, NBC's Lisa

[51:37] Daniels. Now, we're hearing plenty of

[51:38] scenarios out there, but any possible

[51:40] power shift is going to create a ripple

[51:42] effect on issues like Iraq, immigration,

[51:44] and taxes. Pat Buchanan and Bob Shrum

[51:46] are both MSNBC political analysts and

[51:49] they both join me now. Pat, it's looking

[51:51] like the Democrats are going to have a

[51:53] chance to impact uh those issues. Iraq,

[51:57] immigration, taxes, you name it. A lot

[51:59] of anecdotal evidence coming in today

[52:01] that doesn't really look good for the

[52:03] Republican party, does it?

[52:04] >> Well, it looks like the Democrats going

[52:06] to take the House and quite frankly, it

[52:07] is still looking like the way we talked

[52:09] last night. Link Chaffy may be our only

[52:11] chance of holding the Senate as of now

[52:13] late polls. But take the tax issue, Joe.

[52:17] I don't think the Democrats have the

[52:18] capacity to raise taxes over a

[52:20] presidential veto in a Republican Senate

[52:22] or even 50 Republicans in the Senate.

[52:24] The only thing that might happen is they

[52:26] say, "Mr. President, you want an

[52:28] extension on your taxes for the middle

[52:30] class and for families? Okay, raise the

[52:33] top rate from 35 to 38 or 39."

[52:36] >> Right? and of course attach and and

[52:38] possibly say you're also going to have

[52:40] to attach a minimum wage amendment that

[52:42] will make a minimum wage a working wage.

[52:44] >> They'll get a minimum wage. I really do.

[52:46] >> I think so. But but sticking with today

[52:48] Bob Trump again throughout it is

[52:50] important to remember that at this time

[52:53] in 2004, John Kerry was president-elect

[52:56] of the United States.

[52:58] >> No one is more acutely aware of that

[52:59] than I am. Except maybe. Except maybe

[53:02] John Kerry.

[53:03] >> I mean, you were trying to figure out

[53:04] which office you were going to have. I

[53:06] wasn't going to. No, I wasn't going to

[53:08] the White House.

[53:08] >> But things obviously can change very

[53:10] quickly, but anecdotal evidence coming

[53:12] in. If you look at the long lines, if

[53:14] you look at the weather patterns, if you

[53:16] look at the voting patterns, certainly

[53:17] looks like a big Democratic day.

[53:19] >> Look, I think there's no doubt we're

[53:20] going to take the House. I think the

[53:22] fact that Pat is rooting for Lincoln

[53:24] Chaffy as the salvation of the

[53:27] Republicans in the Senate tells you how

[53:29] desperate that situation is. I think we

[53:31] could take the Senate. Uh, and I think

[53:33] this will have an impact on policy. I

[53:35] think for example that if the Democrats

[53:37] take the House and the Senate certainly,

[53:40] but if they take just the House, George

[53:42] Bush is going to be saved, and pardon me

[53:45] Pat from the extremists on immigration

[53:48] who want to pass the kind of immigration

[53:50] bill that will drive Hispanics away from

[53:52] the Republican party.

[53:53] >> But but again, you say the extremists on

[53:54] immigration and you say, "Excuse me,

[53:56] Pat," but Pat Buchanan speaks for about

[53:58] 85% of Americans who believe that our

[54:02] immigration system is broken. There was

[54:03] actually about a 62% support in the last

[54:06] poll I saw for the McCain Kennedy bill,

[54:08] [clears throat] which is the bill that

[54:10] which is the bill that Bush won.

[54:11] >> Let me tell you something.

[54:13] >> I'm not Don't switch out a host into

[54:15] advocate.

[54:16] >> I'm not I'm not I'm just telling you

[54:18] though as a host analyst. If the

[54:20] Democratic party supports George W.

[54:23] Bush's amnesty plan, it's the worst

[54:25] thing that can happen.

[54:26] >> Let me tell Let me tell you what the

[54:27] what the stakes are for Bush. And this I

[54:29] think Bush understands this and Rove

[54:31] does too. If the Republican party goes

[54:34] down the Tom Tan Credo road, I won't say

[54:36] the Pap Buchanan road, the Tom Tan Credo

[54:39] road, then the state of Texas over the

[54:41] next 8 to 10 years will become a

[54:43] Democratic state. You'll see

[54:45] realignment. You'll see realignment in

[54:46] this in this country.

[54:48] >> You look at the sunb belt and we don't

[54:49] want to get into an immigration debate

[54:50] here. Nobody knows it more than you Pat

[54:52] Buchanan. But you are seeing explosive

[54:54] Hispanic growth across the Southwest,

[54:56] across Texas, which is why Carl Ro has

[54:58] shifted and George Bush, they both

[55:01] shifted uh their their emphasis on

[55:03] immigration. But Pat Buchanan, I want to

[55:05] talk about George Bush,

[55:07] >> right,

[55:07] >> as governor of Texas. He was actually

[55:09] very effective working with the

[55:11] Democratic party. He may have to do that

[55:13] for two years on immigration or other

[55:14] issues. Right. We got to go, Pat. Go

[55:16] ahead.

[55:16] >> Well, the problem on immigration is

[55:17] look, 80 to 85% of the country is

[55:19] against amnesty and a guest worker

[55:21] program. Bush and the McCain Kennedy

[55:24] types would get defeated in the Congress

[55:26] of the United States if they try it.

[55:28] Joe, it is dead. That battle is over.

[55:31] >> It's not amnesty, by the way. But let me

[55:33] tell you, there's one other effect.

[55:34] Pat's right about one thing. There's not

[55:36] going to be a big tax increase. I

[55:37] >> I'm told we got to go. Thanks so much,

[55:40] Bob Shrum, Pat Buchanan. We'll see you

[55:42] all soon. I'm Joe Scarra. That's going

[55:43] to do it for this hour. My colleague

[55:45] Tucker Carlson takes over coverage at

[55:47] the top of the hour. Tucker with a tie.

[55:50] You're going to like what you see.

[55:51] You're watching MSNBC's all out

[55:53] continuing coverage of Decision 2006,

[55:55] Battleground America.

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